How will this financial mess affect rep world?

[milsub5517]

Im thinking that we should see the effect of the crisis on the rep world very soon. We could see: less new rep models come out ( due to "r&d" $$$ cuts), lower overall prices, may be even closing of factories (i hope not the ones who make super reps) etc.

What are you thoughts about this ladies and gentlemen? ... hold on we don't have ladies here anymore...

[jkerouac]

I doubt that prices will fall. As for rep factories failing and fewere models..... how will we even know?

I do expect rep purchases to decline since these are discretionary items at a time when a lot of people are feeling pain due to fear of losing a job, sharply reduced income, and declining home and investment values.

And sure, if people suffer really serious losses, such as their jobs or homes, then I'd sell my watches, or almost all of them, really fast.

By the way, I didn't like any of the options in this poll, so I didn't vote.

[bwhitesox]

Well it is affecting us here in Australia because the dollar is getting lower and lower against the American.....Sux big time.

[Watchmeister]

It will have a big impact on rep sales. At current prices everyone who is affected by the crisis will think twice before buying that next rep. IMHO, it has already had a major impact on the gen world. New watches that AD's were quoting 3-6 month lead times are now becoming available in 3-4 weeks. And IMHO the secondary market is coming down as well. We are only now beginning to see watches come out of the woodwork by sellers who need the money. I should also add I walked into a couple of AD's in the last couple of weeks and I am seeing watches they could never get their hands on before. If you can, save your pennies as we will be seeing some great deals (rep and gen) this year. Is a $600-$1,000 rep really that different from a gen. You think before you buy - or at least I do.

[zzipy]

These are unprecedented times in living memory of 99% of mankind. I would say we all need to double AR our thought process and hope a COSC certified timing of events help us.

I have a small IT consulting firm (8people) and I will have to lay off 3 of them this Monday. I don't feel good but our clients have pulled out completely

Just hang around here in this forum to distract myself. I feel bad, but I have to pay my mortgage.

[freddy333]

These are unprecedented times in living memory of 99% of mankind. I would say we all need to double AR our thought process and hope a COSC certified timing of events help us.

I have a small IT consulting firm (8people) and I will have to lay off 3 of them this Monday. I don't feel good but our clients have pulled out completely

Just hang around here in this forum to distract myself. I feel bad, but I have to pay my mortgage.

Wow, I am truly sorry to hear that. I was not aware the economic slowdown had begun to trickle down to the level of small businesses yet.

[AMK000]

World Economy is a mess.

Countries and continents that used to have strong economies (US, Europe, Australia, Japan...) are now on their knees and some of the traditionaly poor countries (China, India, Rusia) they now have plenty of cash to spend. (..... that's why Sarko is talking about National Soveriegn Funds .. to prevent the newly rich countries countries from buying strategic EU and US firms ).

My predictions of the rep market for the next 12 to 18 months are:

Buyers will buy less and less. Rep sales will decrease by 50%

Producers will reduce their production levels down by 30% to 35%

Rep prices will decrease by 30% to 50%. We will see more and more Asian 21J and we will se again prices of 110 USD to 250 USD like 3-4 years ago.

Fewer new rep models will be produced. May be some new good pieces but not from the factories. They will come out most likely from private " back garden workshops".

Of course their is always a posibility for a whole diferrent scenario.

Since China is a country that holds a lot of cash right now, may be they keep their prices and now start looking on more inbound sales (CHN reps being sold directly to China).

If that situation lasts longer (hope not) .... maybe we will see European and US Rep factories ... so we will have our oun reps

[rogerthat]

China is so dependent on the US and other larger consumer markets that I would not call them cash rich anymore.

If we feel pain they will fell it too and already are.

Seems obvious that at least for the short term purchases will go down and if purchases stay down for more than a few months prices will follow. In the US we are all hoping that after the election regardless of who wins will bring about consumer and market confidence as right now everyting is at a standstill.

Most companies are saving their money and cutting costs, but they also know that they can not continue this for long and succeed long term.

Cheers,

M

Cheers,

M

[mars08]

Well it is affecting us here in Australia because the dollar is getting lower and lower against the American.....Sux big time.

Oh yeah! The Australian dollar has plummeted against the $US in the past three months!!!

A rep which would have cost $A220 in mid-July, costs about $A100 more today. Not good at all.

Won't be purchasing anything for a while.

[Shundi]

It's like the used car market...new prices will drop and used prices will come up slightly (obviously not as much as used cars when adjusted for industry and sales...but more than it is). I think we're going to see new models (as new gens are cheaper) and I wouldn't be surprised to see prices stay around the same or drop slightly... Just my two (Stephane) American cents

[Shundi]

@ Mreynolds:

Exactly. China has the equivalent of around $1 trillion USD in sovereign funds and raw trade deficit debt.

They've lost a LOT of money...trust me.

[Febus]

Result of all this is that I for one have moved away from reps and started buying mid range gens like Rolex. They hold their value across currencies IMO.

[Noel Fleischer]

i was at Tourneau yesterday looking at some GMT pepsis. the salesman told me that

people with old money still can afford Rolex. i still can't believe that they keep raising their prices in the midst

of this whole mess! he did say that the young wall street Breitling crowd is dying out.

[HauteHippie]

@ Mreynolds:

Exactly. China has the equivalent of around $1 trillion USD in sovereign funds and raw trade deficit debt.

They've lost a LOT of money...trust me.

Yes, but the United States is bankrupt and our economy is based on borrowing to consume. And from whom are we borrowing? China can and should begin to decouple itself - and its currency - from the US. They have the factories to produce and the savings to ride this out. And I don't think it'll be too long before they realize that they'll be better off in the long run if they just let the US's house of cards collapse. This (short term) dollar rally isn't sustainable and isn't rational. There is a bubble now being created in US treasuries based on a perceived safety in the US monetary system. But it will pop, like all bubbles do. And in all honesty, the US dollar (and the Euro as well) is in real trouble IMO. It won't be long before the dollar index is back in the 70s and on its way down to new lows IMO.

[MADRED7]

Dear All,

in the beginning of this year I was buying nearly 4-6 reps every month....now I am down to 1 watch per month and have not yet bought/decided what to buy in November....maybe I will not buy any new watch in November????

So the question is....will the global financial crisis have impact on the rep-prices????

I allready saw some dealers offering their watches for discounted prices and some of the dealers are ready to negotiate prices....is the era of highly priced 500-800$ reps history for now????

Will we see new reps with decreased prices?

Can you answer for a Skyland Blacksteel costing 600 USD without feeling bad? (and allready having a SS version for 260$ )

Will I be able to buy reps in the future when prices steadily increase?

My answer to these questions is....I cannot buy anymore reps if the prices don

[offshore]

I work in purchasing, and negotiate daily with overseas suppliers.

The one thing which is very apparent, this early in the cycle, is that the suppliers are ready to reduce their maximum quantity requirements, quite dramatically. whilst there has been little change as yet in the sell price (although obviously exchange rates have dramatically altered landed cost).

I note also that a lot of Chinese sellers, who have previously sold goods at wholesale level only, are now flocking to the likes of Ebay, and offering small lots. So there is inventory to clear.

Who really knows the final outcomes. I'm sure if we had a crystal ball, we could become very wealthy.

In the rep scene, the 1st possibility, is that the factories may try to increase their dealer levels, which would give greater competition, or they may even decide to move to direct marketing to clear stocks. Although I don't think we will see this anytime soon.

Probably more competition, which will reduce prices, however exchange rates will play a big part!

Just my 0.02c worth! ( Was worth 0.03c last week!)

Offshore

[jjfesq]

Not at All.

[browngo1]

Four or five months ago the British pound was worth about 2 US dollars and now it's only worth about 1.5-1.6.

This means that a $400 rep now costs

[Samurai]

I haven't bought a rep in 2 months now .... was buying around 2-3 every month.

Hopefully the prices will start to tumble soon.

[RobbieG]

Nah, the so called crisis is tied to Interbank issues - which is only going to get better from here anyway. Unless Chinese rep factories borrow money benchmarked to LIBOR to make cases or something I wouldn't think so. That said, I wouldn't put past them to use the crisis to somehow create artificial supply and demand issues to raise the prices...

[automatico]

"So the question is....will the global financial crisis have impact on the rep-prices????"

(Imho of course...)

My guess is yes. Less demand = lower prices.

"I allready saw some dealers offering their watches for discounted prices and some of the dealers are ready to negotiate prices....is the era of highly priced 500-800$ reps history for now????"

Maybe, but I doubt it.

Hardcore replica RWG etc guys will still buy a high end rep now and then, just not as many as in the past. I think watches like the 'euromariner' etc are probably about as good as you can get no matter the price.

Ripoff sites will continue to sell them for $1200 to suckers, but probably not as many as before.

'One off' custom made watches with totally fake "genuine" cases/dials etc using genuine movements will still sell at nose bleed prices as before.

As some RWG members move toward working on watches, their interest in high end 100% replicas may decline as they shift to homemade frankenwatches.

"Will we see new reps with decreased prices?"

Maybe for a while, then back to slowly rising prices as usual...as long as they will sell at the higher prices. If not, they may cut production to raise demand.

Prices will always rise with a rise in demand but right now I would say demand is down quite a bit.

Many people with plenty $$ are cutting back too because they do not know what lies ahead.

Meanwhile, used genuine watch prices at the "watch trader" level have fallen a lot. I bought a super nice TAG WN1111 with full size bracelet for $150 a couple weeks ago. (a lot of 'trader watches' have short bracelets)

It was a good buy at $150 because a similar high quality 'swiss quartz' TAG replica will cost around $100 plus shipping/customs hassles.

I also got a genuine 17013 rolex OQDJ with 13 links (I mentioned it in an earlier post) for a total cost of $1275...another pretty good deal.

In today's financial climate, you can pick up genuine watches now and then for not much more than a high end replica.

[freddy333]

I think it all depends on how much effect the spiky global economy has on each rep sellers' bottom line. I think the global economy is tied into the fates of the US 'Big 3' auto makers, so you have to take their futures into account (& whether President Elect Yo-Bama decides to bail them out when they go belly-up). Should make for interesting conversation while sitting in gas lines next year.

[By-Tor]

Moderator move: Two exactly similar threads/topics merged to one.

Carry on.

[flex]

Not sure about the rep world but, there is a huge impact to the gen world.

Last year, if you've walked into Panerai to ask for 111 or other base model to try it on. They would just tell you politely to leave your name on their list. You asked for a quote and would have to wait for 8-10 months & the price would be different when they called u (they raise their prices every 6 months).

Two weeks ago, i walked into Panerai AD and asked for some base models to try them on. They immediately pulled out a 111, and offered me to try some other base models. I was thinking if i wait a few more months, i will pick up some really nice pieces in the second hand market. in the 2nd hand market, the price for a PAm 005 has already dropped.

It is now back to the consumer maket. Cash is king.

[gbc]

I believe one of the reasons reps went up in price over the last few years was the escalating cost of raw materials.

Steel, plastic, rubber etc are more than 60% off their historic highs.

We should be seeing cheaper reps but its all suppy vs demand.

If demands drop ... so should prices.

Only problem is that reps are cheaper substitutes in hard times.

As is the case with all products/services of questionable legality ... demand is usually recession proof!