Hmm, ok, I would say that there is an equal probability that the watch got stolen in China or Ukraine.
Of course, not every package would be stolen but it does happen from time to time.
To be honest, most stolen parcel cases I have seen take place after they have arrived in the destination country. It is also not uncommon for the parcel handler to manipulate the situation such that the parcel appears to be already empty or damaged.
But knowing that this is the lunar new year period in China and other parts of Asia, theft and other petty crime rates are higher in those countries, given the relatively general relaxation of law and vigilance...
PM Mike on a Bike and inform him regarding the situation with Josh.. he would be able to help you better. I can help you send an email to Josh as well.