How big is the rep market?

[trailboss]

How many times have we all seen posts asking this question. Many, many times but never much of an answer.

T4D, a probational "expert" over at The Dark Side replyied to just such a thread today with a actual answer that gives at least some insite into this question as well as "what percentage of the market are the fora?" Very interesting.

Complete thread HERE

And for those without accounts the reply in question:

"High end watches account for less than 5% of the market. Biggest market is in crap to Africa etc.

Boards account for a very small % of the overall market although a higher % of top end reps.

The market is enormous if you go to GZ you will see containers being shipped.

Big players in the business order in 1000' s I know of 1 importer in Bangkok who spends $3-5million a month to give some idea of the size of it 90% he buys would be Medium grade

Another strange thing is that medium grade watches can be found cheaper in Bangkok than in GZ while 7750-ETA are more expensive in Bangkok than GZ I beleive this is brought about because the main trade at least to Bangkok is medium grade watches

As to the actual monitory value of the trade I can not even guess most likely <> the GDP of some small countries"

This is by far the most definitive and qualified reply to this much asked question I have ever seen.

Regards,

Col.

[onzenuub]

Oke Col, thank you.

[greg_r]

T4D (aka Robert from PrestigeWatchCo) has a refreshing tendency to give direct answers to direct questions. I know he's been accused of 'sharp practices' by some, but he was refreshingly up front with me when I had a conversation with him about PAM reps recently - which is why I wound up placing a trial order with him.

Interesting response to the question

[JohnG]

I call [censored] on ANYONE who gives numbers and percentages on fake watches. There are no reliable figures - just extremely rough estimates of the market as a whole - and since product flows to all four corners of the earth from God knows how many different underground sources in China and other parts of Asia, the only thing we know for sure is that NOBODY REALLY KNOWS how big the market is, much less things like market share represented by specific dealers, the forums, high-end reps, etc...

The Institute for Replica Watch Market Data Collection and Analysis (IRWMDCA) does not exist, it is a myth, despite the fact that people seem to quote from it

[alphakazi]

Info has a way of traveling down the chain - that info will include truth - numbers will always get mixed up but you can be sure the industry is huge - replica watches only being a part of the industry - as Col says <> the GDP of a small country - I whole heartedly believe that to be truth.

I also believe dealers should regard rep forums as buyer continue to become more informed and the internet continues to expand. There must be a huge amount of people that will NEVER dream of posting in fear of doing something illegal. They will though, get the facts about replicas and buy from certain dealers. Josh is proof of this, being a large player, it's clear he values the opinions of forums and in general how people talk about him - this is why he provides excellent customer service (QC... well, that's another story but I'm sure that's being worked on continually - must be difficult moving that much and relying on the factory to partially dictate your worth as a dealer)

I was watching a documentary a few days ago about where all our old electronics end up - calculators, computers, stereos, phones... - it's all shipped back to where it was made.... in China - packed into huge shipping containers by the thousands - you have entire villages of very poor people dismantling, using fire to un-solder parts, breathing in toxic fumes... kids... and each village will specializes in a certain part of the process - the rivers riddled with computer parts - they extract the gold from gold plated conductors, even the cheap plastic housing of monitors gets recycled... everything - even if it's worth 1 cent - after seeing this insane underworld, it made me realize how undeveloped China really is and how easy it is to make these replicas in an unimaginable quantity to supply the world - mostly mafia controlled - the Chinese authorities can only pretend to make a difference. It's hard to me to completely disagree with this labor (including child labor) because, without these "jobs", where would they go, what would they do, how many will resort to crime - I mean real crime. China's population is over 1.3 Billion, there is always someone to fill a position and so many will go without - I don't consider the replica industry to be any real crime - copying a design and name - big deal - it's about as much crime as opening up competition and stealing profits from big business - kind of anyhow - of course it's not right, but it's not a serious issue in the grand scheme of things - long live reps - may they help poor families to have good food and a place to live and something sweet on my wrist.