The timing of 'new releases'

[mezzanine]

This started out as a response to another thread, but it quickly diverged into something different, and instead of derail that topic, I felt it might warrant it's own discussion.

I'm surprised at the lag that has occured in the production of new models, and have spent some time trying to figure out why. I'm not sure if someone with more history or experience could chime in, but in my relatively short amount of experience here, I haven't observed this type of drop-off, in terms of the release of new watches.

I think maybe I was spoiled with my timing of entering the hobby. It was before the on-slaught of new 'super reps' around last christmas, and there was so much in the way of older watches for me to look at as a newb, that I wasn't hurting for new options early on.

The market has shifted from wanting a bulk of options...in terms of wanting every possible variation on an average watch...to wanting extremely high fidelity, high quality single watches. That's why these types of releases which tend to be variations on existing models are anti-climactic for me.

If the rep maker who does the super-reps was to release the 'black steel' Skyland, the Graham Chronofighter (sp?), a ceramic Ingy, a ceramic bezel 1:1 Rolex GMT, a seconds@ 12 AP ROO, or another watch that would push the limits of the reps in the same way that the HBB/Evo/Cousteau did, I think the hobby would get a jolt or a shot in the arm...and there would be a jump in sales revenue for the makers/dealers.

Especially if you think about how the release of a truly 1:1 high quality 'super' rolex rep could effect the rep game. We haven't seen one, really- and there are a number of theories as to why, but there's no question that the market for something like that would be tremendous.

One theory I've had for a while is that they've decided to cut-off communication about what may be in the pipeline is an effort to avoid sabotaging their ability to price current 'super reps' at the premium that they've been commanding. The idea is that the maker times the releases of new watches so as to best maximize his ability to run with that product line throughout the following year while keeping his price premium for as long as possible on 'this year's' collection of offerings...

What tells me that we're near to another 'run' of watches is that the 'life cycle' of the current super reps are starting to enter into a different phase. The reps that were priced at a premium are starting to have value options, like the 'lite' version of the HBB, etc...

I think they may view their sales model in terms of a yearly cycle now. I've long believed that the rep business best mimicks the technology industry, in terms of their respective governing value characteristics. It's conceivable that they try to extend the life cycle of their current line-up of price premium watches before undercutting them with a new generation of watches. Basically, you price the super reps at the same price as they're priced at when they're released for as long as possible- without introducing anything that would sabotage that margin.

If you were to release a high quality series of reps in a trickle down way, it might be harder to keep the prices and demand inflated on the current generation. Instead, you clam up and don't release your new generation until you're ready to accept that production on your previous generation is no longer going to command the profit margin that the market would initially bare, due to the fact they've been around long enough to have saturated your customer base.

It happens in technology all the time. Companies have a product that is pretty much ready to go, but if they were to release it, they would mess up the timing of the sales cycle of their previous generation of product and make it 'out-moded' before the customers necessarily would naturally feel the need to upgrade.

If you had the option of buying a Tag Link Chrono or an ultimate PO or a SS Ingy, with the availability of the super-reps, I would think that it would be hard to justify paying super-rep type prices for those watches. That's where we were at approximately a year ago this time. A lot has changed between then and now...but I can't help but wonder if the maker sits down at the end of each year, and thinks about what he's going to do in the following year along these types of lines.

[archibald]

A strong possibility, but I always go with the simplest possible explanation, which is that these reps sell quickly quickly enough at insane prices w/o any justification other than that they're indistinguisgable from the gens to 99.9% of the population and cost 1/8 to 1/4 as much; and that announcing what's coming too far in advance can only cause problems--from competitors, from gen manufacturers, etc.

With respect to the prices, I've always wondered just how much power we forum denizens have--if the majority of us just said "no f'n way I'm paying $800 for an asian 7750 powered stee case/rubber strap watch" would prices drop, or would the factories and dealers continue along their merry way selling at huge markups in other markets?

[docblackrock]

Companies have a product that is pretty much ready to go, but if they were to release it, they would mess up the timing of the sales cycle of their previous generation of product and make it 'out-moded' before the customers necessarily would naturally feel the need to upgrade.

Not just electronics or consumer goods either, scary stuff

In terms of watches though, I personally don't think it's anywhere near as strategically organised as you seem to be suggesting. Sure there's some market forces and minor gamesmanship at work, but essentially costs are going up and with them prices. Ain't going to change anytime soon IMO. We are but mere amoeba in the big pool of life.

[lanikai]

If it's true that in some cases the genuines are used to replicate the watch ... the makers have to wait until the genuine comes out.. then take it apart for replication.. i don't believe this to be as simple as it seems ... as i'm sure they're entire work force is not put on each project

i think it's important to remember that this is the "replica" business and Retail stores are not "waiting" for the manufacture of the new product ... and does not have a release date by the genuine manufacturer.

at least that's my 2 cents ... KISS .. (keep it simple )

[robertk]

I think the answer is more simple. They're not organized in a marketing way.

They just make 'em when they make 'em. period.

[mezzanine]

A strong possibility, but I always go with the simplest possible explanation, which is that these reps sell quickly quickly enough at insane prices w/o any justification other than that they're indistinguisgable from the gens to 99.9% of the population and cost 1/8 to 1/4 as much; and that announcing what's coming too far in advance can only cause problems--from competitors, from gen manufacturers, etc.

With respect to the prices, I've always wondered just how much power we forum denizens have--if the majority of us just said "no f'n way I'm paying $800 for an asian 7750 powered stee case/rubber strap watch" would prices drop, or would the factories and dealers continue along their merry way selling at huge markups in other markets?

There's definitely room for speculation on the issue of the timing of releases- no question. If Puretime hadn't brought us into the loop with the series of super-rep releases, then I probably would've been speculating the same thing between the time that the SFSO was released, and the release of the Cousteau. That was a pretty big gap, too.

The question of our influence is also a speculative one that I've heard different explanations on. My gut tells me that there isn't a huge number of people that would drop the kind of $$ that we are on replicas...whether they're super-reps or not. I don't know what the street price for a HBB is in guanzhou, but I would guess it's half what we pay, max. It's possible there's a strong local market amongst tourists and perhaps the rep maker for the super reps directly supplies some distributors for asian/european tourist markets.

But the problem I see with that theory is that you kinda need a specialized market for these watches. I don't know if there's broad enough exposure to buyers in 'the real world' to create a business opportunity for brick-and-mortar types of distributors. Not many folks off the street are going to be willing to drop 500 bucks on a rep. I've wondered whether the idea of a major market outside of the internet is a story created by some of the cartel dealers to pass the responsibility of the pricing onto the factory, and not themselves...or their joint decision to create a higher margin on those watches.

In terms of the timing question....

If you imagine you're the super rep maker, and you're brainstorming ways to maximize your profits, then how could you go about doing it?

Most of your costs go into R&D. You don't get your profits for releasing new watches. You get your profits for selling as many watches as you can of a single design. If you accept that, then the question becomes, how can you maximize the # of watches sold of any particular design that you've reverse engineered and meticulously duplicated?

It's not by releasing new models that would push the demand for the ones you're mass producing down in volume. It is not in the rep maker's best interest to release a ton of new watches. If they can make it so that every collector wants to own a SFSO, because there isn't a PVD Skyland creating competition against it, then you're not going to release the Skyland before you've made sure you've saturated the market with SFSO's and maximized your revenue for that model. Why would you introduce competition against yourself?

The number of buyers of reps who would buy both a SFSO and a Skyland is not high. It's like Intel having a monopoly on computers...and they release a new cpu design, and without any outside competition or pressure, releasing another design to compete against themselves.