The Hawkeye Caucii

[HauteHippie]

By my PAM 196 7753, the Hawkeye Caucii are just now starting. Who knows how long it takes them to play musical chairs before a winner is chosen?

My predictions: Sadly the Huckster will do well with the drunks and yokels and pull off the win, while college students primarily will put Obama over the top for the Dems.

[Victoria]

My predictions: Sadly the Huckster will do well with the drunks and yokels and pull off the win, while college students primarily will put Obama over the top for the Dems.

Without sharing the adjectives for the voters, I agree with the results.

Since no one is replying to the thread, let me do a little prediction game. It's 8:40 PM EST. The Caucii (heh) are almost over, I think. This is what I think the end result will be.

REPUBLICANS

Huckabee - 33%

Romney - 26%

Thompson - 13%

McCain - 10%

Giuliani - 5% (much lower than expected)

DEMOCRATS

Obama - 31%

Edwards - 28%

Clinton - 22%

Richardson - 12%

We'll see. Again, without any exact political analysis, or giving my opinion, I just see that Huckabee is really the Republican Jimmy Carter, as I call him (the outsider that comes out of no where to win big; it's interesting, because he spent nearly nothing compared to Romney and it's the home schooler/Christian Conservatives which made his campaign grow, not his staff).

Senator Clinton was never supposed to have done well in Iowa, but man, when a black candidate, also from Illinois, can win in one of the most whitebread States in the Union, the guy really has a chance.

It's disaffection with the status-quo that we are seeing in largely a state which differs from so many others.

[ryyannon]

We're screwed.

A little birdie told me so.

[LordRasta]

My predictions: Sadly the Huckster will do well with the drunks and yokels and pull off the win, while college students primarily will put Obama over the top for the Dems.

Seeing how you hit this exactly on the head, can I please have the lottery numbers? I promise to buy you all the reps you want when I hit the jackpot.

[Victoria]

Well, it's 11:16 PM EST, and not all votes are in. But it's close enough.

RESULTS SO FAR: (My predictions in parentheses)

Mike Huckabee 34% (33%)

Mitt Romney 25% (26%)

Fred Thompson 13% (13%)

John McCain 13% (10%)

Ron Paul 10% (-)

Rudy Giuliani 4% (5%)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republic...aucuses%2C_2008

Not too bad at all.

I got the order right, and the level of margin of win almost identical. I was surprised by the Paulians, though.

But I really screwed the pooch in the Democratic side.

RESULTS SO FAR: (My predictions in parentheses)

Barack Obama 38% (31%)

John Edwards 30% (28%)

Hillary Clinton 29% (22%)

Bill Richardson 2% (12%)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Democrat...aucuses%2C_2008

Yipes, big underpredicting for Barack on my part, though like CT I knew he was going to win.

The only thing I can say is that the percentage difference I got right, between Sens. Obama and Clinton -- 9% difference exactly. It was just a lot tighter, and Richardson really failed to put up any fight. I didn't expect that.

As I turn off the computer, to those of you who live outside the US, and don't understand what a caucus is, or what these results mean, it's just this:

People want change. It's not about a charismatic black man, or a preacherman outsider. It's about a vision of America.

And a rather cold lady and a national hero with character flaws, who are both probably the best qualified to actually BECOME President of the USA, just didn't cut it tonight.

It's going to be an interesting year. Good night.

[HauteHippie]

LordRasta, this one was a pretty easy call. The place has been polled to death, as VBarrett's numbers show. And with past history as my guide (Pat Robertson of all people once garnered 25% there) it was a no brainer that the evangelicals would again leave their mark... "As the returns began to trickle in, a spontaneous prayer circle broke out at the Des Moines Embassy Suites where Huckabee supporters are congregating. The group prayed for Huckabee's victory as well as some of his more conservative views - including an end to abortion and homosexuality." See what I mean?

[ryyannon]

LordRasta, this one was a pretty easy call. The place has been polled to death, as VBarrett's numbers show. And with past history as my guide (Pat Robertson of all people once garnered 25% there) it was a no brainer that the evangelicals would again leave their mark... "As the returns began to trickle in, a spontaneous prayer circle broke out at the Des Moines Embassy Suites where Huckabee supporters are congregating. The group prayed for Huckabee's victory as well as some of his more conservative views - including an end to abortion and homosexuality." See what I mean?

Yes, but what's his stand on replica watches?

See also:

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2008/...logging-th.html

[subzero1]

I predict that if Obama wins the dem nomination, he'll go on to win it all and be our next president.