Are there many "super-reps" in the world?

[Sir Jon]

My HBB is a beauty, absolutely magnification and I love it. Still it is a rep and I wonder how many of them are out in the world.

For example HBB, how many fakes are out? All together; lite, ceramic bezel or PVD, black, yellow, white ... More then originally produced by Hublot? Just the regular ones, not the special editions.

How many Concord C1 or Nautilus will be produced or are out?

I know that probably millions of cheap Rolex's are somewhere on a wrist, but how many of these super-reps?

How big is the chance that if I see smb with a HBB, that he has a rep too? 1:1? 1:10? 10:1

Just curious...

[JohnG]

My HBB is a beauty, absolutely magnification and I love it. Still it is a rep and I wonder how many of them are out in the world.

For example HBB, how many fakes are out? All together; lite, ceramic bezel or PVD, black, yellow, white ... More then originally produced by Hublot? Just the regular ones, not the special editions.

How many Concord C1 or Nautilus will be produced or are out?

I know that probably millions of cheap Rolex's are somewhere on a wrist, but how many of these super-reps?

How big is the chance that if I see smb with a HBB, that he has a rep too? 1:1? 1:10? 10:1

Just curious...

According to IRCSA - the Institute for Replica Statistical Compilation and Analysis:

HBB replicas extant

Lite: 102,474

Cer: 17,442

PVD: 8,582

Total 128,438

Concord C1 extant

17,491

Planned production 4Q 2008

4,500

Nautilus extant

11,337

Planned production 4Q 2008

2,700

Rolex (ALL) extant

29,384,246

Statistical probability of any given HBB being a replication

93%

*raw data sets compiled from information provided by the National Security Agency, Dept. of Strategic Economic Data Assembly and the Guangzhou Ministry of Commerce

[dluddy]

Post by JohnG = Priceless

[ubiquitous]

Hmmmm... JohnG's numbers may be slightly skewed as they don't take into account the number of 'As Seen On TV' special edition HBB replica's produced specifically for the Antarctic regions only...

[Sir Jon]

Amazing!!!!

Thanx

[PAMman]

It's always difficult to be totally accurate about these things but I think that you will find some 'double counting' in Jon's stats. According to a very reliable source some 43 of the HBB Lites were withdrawn before being rebuilt and reissued as PVD versions. This should be taken into account when working out the probability of spotting a rep 'in the wild'.

However, IMO a more significant factor is whether the gen watches are more likely to be worn only on special occasions, thus reducing their likelihood of being spotted, or whether the reps are worn less often on account of the owners fear of being 'called out'. These two influences require much more research.

[Wolf]

If you see me, you will have 1:1 chance that I will be wearing a rep!

[JohnCraig]

Simple to discern; ask the wearer about the model , its history, movement etc.

If he knows any of the above he probably owns reps and most likely is wearing one.

Thanks for the statistics JohnG, I'm off to the bars to begin placing bets - I'll drink free tonight

JW

[Sir Jon]

After thinking a bit of it I am getting pleased:

So many high quality reps are not out in the world and I can wear mine with confident that it is something special. Even if I know that it is a replica. You can modify it a little bit and then you really have a unique piece -of art, that only a few people wear. Still made from chinese people who probably work under degrading working conditions -but beautifull.

Funny Wolf! Congratulations

I thought much more of replicas are produced and sold.

[Pugwash]

According to IRCSA - the Institute for Replica Statistical Compilation and Analysis:

This is Chinese numbers only. It doesn't take into account the Swiss 27j or Italian reps. I usually add 20% (closer to 19.8%, but 20% makes the maths easier) to the official figures to get a more accurate real-world spread.

Your 93% is actually closer to 94.5%, or 95% if you take Ubi's data into account as well.

ps. Please note, we're working with the statistics of Super Reps only. If you take the unclassified reps into account, you can effectively multiply JohnG's numbers by a factor of 18.1, meaning you're over 98% probability it's a rep, seen from over 8' away - obviously, the non-Super Reps are identifiable as reps within the standard 8' mean distribution distance, according to the international designation definition of Super Rep.

[Noel Fleischer]

i don't know how accurate this is vis a vis john's data, but

i heard really that for rollies there are 11:1 reps to gens.

this is pre-ceramic data; and may be obsolete by now, jejeje