Tragedy of the commons?

[r11co]

The switch away from ETA movements is due to people stockpiling them for ETA's planned departure from the parts market. It's a genuine shortage created by a fear of shortage.

I'm inclined to think that the rep makers are not this farsighted, or are not long-term gamblers. Stockpiling means having an investment in something that then isn't making you money, in the hope that in the long run you can cash-in, but the process of depreciating the 'average' acceptable rep watch price will continue so there is probably less to gain from the stockpiling for more hassle than to just cash in on the current value of the ETA movements, which is why we are not really experiencing a shortage at all at the moment.

[Pugwash]

Stockpiling means having an investment in something that then isn't making you money

Rep makers aren't the ones stockpiling the movements.

[r11co]

They don't seem to have a problem getting them though, so someone is not marking them up or restricting supply to hold on to stocks.

Also, at the moment if I need a spare ETA2824 I can get one (a real one!!) by buying a brand new genuine watch and stripping it down, for HALF the price that every watch spares seller on the 'net is asking for for the movement alone.

[crystalcranium]

Geezze!!! Economic theory...what a classy place. I'm feeling a little lightweight intellectually here. Anyone want to talk carbapenemase mediated resistance in K. pneumoniae????? Didn't think so

[teddy boy]

Geezze!!! Economic theory...what a classy place. I'm feeling a little lightweight intellectually here. Anyone want to talk carbapenemase mediated resistance in K. pneumoneae????? Didn't think so

LOL, whatever field that comes from, you have better big words than we do.

[crystalcranium]

LOL, whatever field that comes from, you have better big words than we do.

Hey nobody even wants to talk about it here at work either!!!

Like my wife says...."What a nerd"

[Rxus]

Then who is?

The Gen market?

i always figured it would be rep makers as they would be able to cash in later on with these soon to be "rare" movements. One good example would be the SFSO, aside from the AR/saphire glass the only real difference between them is the movement. yet the ETA version is nearly twice the price. IMO AR coated saphire in mass quantities and ETA movements in large numbers as well cannot account for a near 50% markup on a watch.

But i see this trend becoming ever so popular.

[deltatahoe]

this is a quality discussion. no monster egos and hurt feelings or lynch mobs. it will be interesting to see how the rep game changes with the recent increase in prices on certain pieces (cc and i were discussing this in another thread).

my impressions of what lead to those price increases are as follows: one of the rep makers realized that if he were to buy a highly sought after genuine watch and take great care to ensure it is replicated as closely as possible on the first run (even using the rep forums via angus for input to ensure quality control on the dial, etc), then he would be the only maker with this particular well-replicated watch, and could charge a premium price for the product. if you ask me, that's a smart business man.

now, there are questions that immediately come to mind, such as: does it take a factory with higher quality control or CNC machining capabilities to create these well-replicated watches, or can all of the rep-making factories make replicas of this quality? if it takes a better (read: more expensive) factory to create these replicas, then i believe these higher prices are likely justified, and are here to stay in the long run.

if this is not the case, and all of these factories are capable of making replicas of this quality, then other rep makers/factory owners are going to see the big profits the initial maker is reaping from putting out these new "super-reps" as they are being called, introducing competition back into the market, which should result in a decrease in prices over time.

just my thoughts. would be curious to see what others think....

deltatahoe

[crystalcranium]

this is a quality discussion. no monster egos and hurt feelings or lynch mobs. it will be interesting to see how the rep game changes with the recent increase in prices on certain pieces (cc and i were discussing this in another thread).

my impressions of what lead to those price increases are as follows: one of the rep makers realized that if he were to buy a highly sought after genuine watch and take great care to ensure it is replicated as closely as possible on the first run (even using the rep forums via angus for input to ensure quality control on the dial, etc), then he would be the only maker with this particular well-replicated watch, and could charge a premium price for the product. if you ask me, that's a smart business man.

now, there are questions that immediately come to mind, such as: does it take a factory with higher quality control or CNC machining capabilities to create these well-replicated watches, or can all of the rep-making factories make replicas of this quality? if it takes a better (read: more expensive) factory to create these replicas, then i believe these higher prices are likely justified, and are here to stay in the long run.

if this is not the case, and all of these factories are capable of making replicas of this quality, then other rep makers/factory owners are going to see the big profits the initial maker is reaping from putting out these new "super-reps" as they are being called, introducing competition back into the market, which should result in a decrease in prices over time.

just my thoughts. would be curious to see what others think....

deltatahoe

I think we need to be conservative in our characterization of any "manufacture" in China as factory based. It's pretty tough to get a handle on how any of these watches are produced. There might be some single point production but the prevailing theory is one of very de-centralized production of parts combined with clandestine assembly. There are hundreds of combinations of movements, some purely Swiss but most a combination of Swiss and Asian parts. One thread mentioned no less than dozens of 2892 like variants available to assembly houses, (and yes, I do mean houses, basement and back room based mom and pop operations). An image of a factory operating like a clean production line, with tooling start up costs and a start to finish oversight of a production process is making a big assumption IMO.

I know Angus talked about being in communication with "The Factory" but I don't think we should confuse this with our western idea of factory based production.

[deltatahoe]

An image of a factory operating like a clean production line, with tooling start up costs and a start to finish oversight of a production process is making a big assumption IMO.

this is a fair point...but the fact remains....someone is taking greater care to make dials, cases, quality AR coated crystals that are more accurate on these so called SuperReps, and my point = if there is a real cost/difficulty/inability to do this (either in a factory or someone's spare bedroom), then i think the higher prices are probably justified and are here to stay. if anyone can do this, then i believe more makers will begin offering watches of this quality and enter the market, pushing down prices. it's a supply and demand, which teddy boy is probably much more versed in than myself. i would be interested to hear his thoughts on my theory too...

deltatahoe

[Pugwash]

There might be some single point production but the prevailing theory is one of very de-centralized production of parts combined with clandestine assembly.

Theory?

I thought it was pretty much common knowledge. I've had it on very good authority that this is how it works.

[crystalcranium]

Theory?

I thought it was pretty much common knowledge. I've had it on very good authority that this is how it works.

I wanted to allow some wiggle room for error. My information is based primarily on one thread here that linked to a video of Cartier exeutives documenting the counterfeit trade in China and how it operates. It was very enlightening as to the home grown nature of assembly shops that can produce a thousand watches per week in hundreds if not thousands of basements and back rooms.

[Pugwash]

I wanted to allow some wiggle room for error.

You had no error to wiggle.

[eddhead]

Geezze!!! Economic theory...what a classy place. I'm feeling a little lightweight intellectually here. Anyone want to talk carbapenemase mediated resistance in K. pneumoniae????? Didn't think so

i do!.... NOT!!

p.s. gazuntite!!

[castlemaine]

I have quietly been around for a number of years and have seen numerous semi significant changes both in quality and pricing. I have bought a good deal of reps from a good deal of dealers. I haven't gotten close and personal with them. I order based on others experience, now mine, and await arrival w/o tracking since I have never had any delays or problems.(knock on wood).

It didn't take the threads to complicate matters. My gut was rumbling long before. The web sites, the claims, the pricing with the claims and service, the difference in or better yet similarities in pricing of competitors for what appeared to be virtually identical product, ultimate, so called ultimate, ultimate lite, ect. Some looked upon it as full service, thinking outside the rep box, better widget, basic supply and demand meets marketing, business 101, and/or just good business. I don't require alot of extras as I do some of my own work and source service where needed. Many have been around longer and are much more educated to speak on the personalities, realities and detail.

I love watches pure and simple. I have gens and reps. I understand it's a rep, there are risks, and thats basic to the art, but I have never in the past felt the need to open up a watch "just" to check the movement vs. what I ordered. Maybe thats foolish but I just haven't felt the need until recently. Interesting to see the folks that are showing up as non drop shippers were the ones I was looking to purchase my next watches from.