panerai153

Another factor, I talked to RBJ about this a couple of weeks ago, as I have been trying very hard to find a Rolex GMT with the 2893-2 movement. These watches have been out of stock since the first of the year, and the rep manufacturers cannot get movements. Anyway, The biggest problem, according to Joe is the hands. the hand stack is different on the 2836-2, and the GMT hand has a large "hole" as it sits on the bottom of the stack. The 2893-2 uses a different hand stack and the GMT hand will not fit. That can be remedied by having a custom hand fabricated, but when you factor in the cost of the movement ,correct spacers, labor as well as the cost of the donor watch, you are going to have an expensive rep. I know that there are lots of guys here on the board that have the talent and the resources to source genuine hands, dials, crowns and tubes, bezel inserts etc. If you are in to that sort of thing, building the ultimate 1665 or 1680, that's great, but if you are just a casual replica person, rebuilds and upgrades can be expensive and frustrating. And in the end, you still have a rep!! By-Tor gave me some good advice, If you are trying to build a Rolex GMT, you can buy a genuine Rolex GMT (older model) on Ebay, or from some watchsellers on Timezone, etc. for 1300-1500 USD. That will be a bit more than you have in a rep, but the good part is you can wear the watch for 2-3 years and get all your money back if you decide to sell. If you are modding other brand GMT's, then that probably wouldn't apply. Good luck

I have Pm'ed and Emailed almost all of the dealers as well as a couple of dealers from China selling on Ebay, everyone says the 2893-2 GMt movement is no longer available. I have been trying for several weeks to find a Rolex GMT Master II with the 2893-2 movement. I was told that the movement is no longer available to Rep manufacturers. I believe that the Swatch group who owns ETA is tightning the noose. It may come to pass in the not too distant future that ETA movements are no longer available to anyone. Swatch tried that about 2 years ago, and it got knocked down by the Swiss watch regulatory agency. They claimed that it would put many smaller brands out of business, as almost everyone uses ETA at least as the base movement in their watches. I would say if you can get Swiss ETA movement reps, you better do it now, because they are going to get harder and harder to come by.

I believe that the members here have made some good points that we will see come to pass in the next couple of years. The Chinese are at the present time just giving lip service to the "Counterfeit problem", an EU , Japanese or American trade delegation visits ,they run a couple of sweeps shut down a Rep factory and it makes the news, everyones happy. But at some point, they will be forced to get serious. If you think the Rep watch business is big, it's small potatos to the IP losses. Imagine the amount of money Microsoft loses every year because of pirated software. I would bet that 80+% of the computers in China are running pirated copies of Windows XP, and Office. That represents millions of copies of software that they lose the revenue on. Now don't get me wrong, I'm no bleeding heart for Microsoft, but when huge companies start to really complain, things happen. An compared to microsoft, LVMH,Swatch and Richmont are pretty small potatos. I was in the Ukraine 2 years back, my wife and I were walking around Kiev, doing a little sightseeing. In the underground cross-unders for pedestrians, were table after table of CD, DVD, and Computer software. I bought the latest copy of Adobe Photoshop for the equivenlent of 5 USD. We were back in the same area again last summer, almost all the stuff that we saw the year before was gone. It was still available on a much smaller scale, but it wasn't in the open and you had to speak Ukrainian or Russian to be able to fid it. I read that Some of the EU and US computer companies basically told the Ukrainian officials, we will not move here until you clean up your IP issues. They didn't completely, but it certainly was choked off and sent underground. Personally, I feel that the choke point for replica stuff is going to come with US customs. As they get more sophisticated X-Ray and scanning equipment and in numbers to scan every package coming through the system, they will stop and confiscate more replicas. As I have said many times on this and the other forums, the US customs personnel are not stupid. They have in the past lacked the resources to scan and examine every package. It's hard to pass a rep off as genuine if the customs folks have the proper tools and are motivated to look for replica watches. I believe that the motivation factor is a big one. Motivation usually comes from above. Someone high up in US Customs send down a memo that all packages containing a watch or watches will be closely looked at. Along with some criteria, such as, Watch is in a proper box(not bubble wrapped in an envelope), Watch has paperwork,instructions,hang tags,erc. Customs declaration is relevent to the watch in the box, I.e. Rolex Submariner declared for 20.00 as a gift to Uncle Arthur. If these criteria are not met, the watch is held. Two things can then happen, they destroy the watch as a fake, or they hit the buyer with customs duties for the real value of the watch. If this happens on a regular basis, the buyers will all disappear. I'm certainly not going to send someone 200-400 USD for a replica if I think that 1. It has a <20% chance of making it through customs or 2. I'm going to get a bill for another 200 USD for customs duties. Sorry for this big rambling statement, but this all boils down to the question "are we in the Golden Age of Replicas" Personally, I believe we are. How long will it last, who knows, but I believe that when it ends, it will be pretty quick, not drawn out over 2-3 years.

Happy Birthday !! Hope you have a good one and many more. Cheers Arthur

Eddie, Sorry to hear about the Canadian Customs problems. It never ceases to amaze me as to the utter stupidity of some of our members of this and other forums. Come on!! There have been 1000+ posts over the past few years about customs problems, Paypal problems, Etc,etc, all precipitated by someone who is too stupid, drunk or stoned to follow common sense rules. WE ARE DEALING IN ILLIGAL COUNTERFEIT GOODS HERE!! You may think in your heart of hearts that your PAM is real, but it isn't. Customs folks are not stupid. Some may be lazy, some may get busy and let a package slide, but their job is to ferret out countraband which is what we are dealing with here. Canadian Customs in particular is very, very vigilant. I think they open everything. All you have to do is write "broken wristwatch for repair and return to sender" You don't need to put a name on the watch, the Customs agent can read!! Commonn sense should tell you that the word replica fake, counterfeit is forbidden, period. Follow- up correspondence should be with an email or telephone call. Not a history of the transaction inside the package. If the members who order watches from our dealers don't adhere to the rules, soon there will be no dealers left.

I will be very interested in the response that you get from ythis request.I to am looking for a goood reliable Rolex GMT Master II rep. I have heard, and this is just from discussions with a couple of members that the CN (China) models are more accurate dial, crown guards are more accurate than the TW (Tiawan) models. I cannot say this is true, because there may be many variations within a country, from different manufacturers. As to the hand stack issue, the 2836 is not accurate, but as BY-Tor stated in his excellent review of the GMT master II, you have to have Eagle eyes to even notice the hand stack. Only when the hour hand and the GMT hand overlap is it apparant that the stack is incorrect. I believe that the basic problem with all the GMT's now is the use of the 2836 movement rather than the 2893-2. The 2836 is a compromise movement which has been adapted to a GMT. I believe that it is a day/date movement in it's correct configuration. I'm sure that there have been some improvements in the reliability of the movement, but they were a source of many problems when they were first introduced a year or two back, I believe in the PAM 063 and 029 GMT models. The best movement is the 2893-2 which is a true GMT movement. It was dropped in favor of the 2836 because of price. The PAM's that were made with the 2893-2 movements were around 600-800 dollars initially, and dropped to the 300-400 dollar range eventually. The dealers cannot sell a 150-250 dollar GMT MASter II with the 2893-2 as the movement costs so much. But, if you are looking for a watch that will be a long term investment as a using watch, one that you can afford to spend some money modding, i believe the 2893-2 would be the way to go. PROBLEM!! none of the dealers are stocking the 2893-2 movements anymore. Everything is 2836. I have been searching for a Rolex GMT Master II w/2893-2 movement for weeks, with no results. no one has them, period. I bought a GMT MasterII (2836) from Paul/Aspire a couple of weeks back, it came in last weekend, very nice watch. comparing it to photos of the genuine, it is pretty darn close. I'm replacing the bezel insert, and having it waterproofed and a little shaping of the crown guards and that's all. Possibly, if the 2836 dies, I will replace the movement witha 2893-2. Time will tell, about the reliability of that particular movement. I hope it works for a long time, but based on experiences of other folks who have had this movement, I remain skeptical. I hope this is a start, I would be most appreciative for any info on a good solid GMT w 22893-2. Regards Arthur

Thanks guys, i was just surprised, TRC has been so stable in the past, probably has had the least problems of any of the forums, (Remember the old RWG!!) Up and down like a yo-yo. I'll be patient and keep trying. Thanks Arthur

Not for me. Here's what i'm getting IPB WARNING [2] load_template(/home/replica/public_html/members/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_/skin_global.php): failed to open stream: No such file or directory (Line: 1351 of /sources/ipsclass.php)

I believe the other problem besides the short supply/huge demand, Rolex SA frowns on dealers discounting. I bought several genuine Rolex watches over the years, and the way some dealers got around the "NO DISCOUNT RULE" is to give you and inflated price for a trade in watch. that way the new watch is documented as sold at full price and you still get a discount. Probably is not as common now if the demand is so great. Like someone else said, you can save a lot by buying "gently used" on forums like Timezone sales corner etc. I would try there. Also you don't have the tax issue with a private sale. There are lots of very respscted sellers on TZ with tons of refrences, some are in the EU, so no customs hassle either. Good luck, they are great watch which as you can see hold their value probably better than most.

Yesterday,Every time Itried to log on to TRC, I got a strange string of numbers words, Etc. Today when trying to log on, I get a pop-up log in box that when I put my correct user name and password in, i get a message not authorized by server Authorization Required This server could not verify that you are authorized to access the document requested. Either you supplied the wrong credentials (e.g., bad password), or your browser doesn't understand how to supply the credentials required. Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Apache/1.3.36 Server at www.replicacollector.com Port 80 What is going on does anyone know? Thanks Arthur

thanks for the reply guys. The watchmaker9 model is tooo expensive. throw in another grand and i can get a genuine with documents, etc. EL and River both told me that they no longer carried the GMT with 2893-2 movement.

Here is a typical noob question, from someone who has been around. I'm just not too big into Rolex, except for my MBW DRSD. I just bought a GMT from aspire E-shop, but am really looking for one with a Swiss ETA 2893-2 movement like the ones in the Panerai GMT's from about a year back. Does anyone have GMT's with the 2893-2 movement? If not who has the best 2836 model? thanks

I just bought a GMT Master II. Fast communication, but the tracking number wasn't good then got a second one and it wasn't a valid number. Soooo the juries out until i get the watch. this one was recommended by Joe so i hope it's OK

Folks, I know that ther have been lots of photos of various permatations of the DRSD. In fact I had another one,a Watchmaster, back a year or so ago. I bought this one several months ago, sent it to Joe, who spent the winter and spring under the weather. Well I had a visit from my nice post lady Saturday and lo and behold it was the DRSD! I really like this one, it looks absolutely identical to several DRSD's that are pictured in Skeet and Urul's great reference book "Vintage Rolex Sports models". Joe has been working on a vintage lume method that looks like aged tritium, but has a nice lume when exposed to bright light. I believe that the lack of lume completely in the replicas is a dead givaway. All of my old genuine dive watches, most from the 1960's have a little lume when exposed to bright light for 20-30 seconds. Most don't last very long, but the lume is there. I believe that Joe has achieved this with the lume material that he is able to apply now. I put the watch on a replica Rolex Riveted bracelet that is OK, but nothing special. I got it off Ebay, fom one of the regular sellers. My Watchmaster was on a genuine Rolex Riveted, and even though it was pretty old, it was much better quality. The first problem I ran into with this one was the end links weren't large enough to allow the use of the thicker Rolex Springbars. I'll be on the lookout for a better one to put on this nice watch. Well here it is: _________________ Arthur Person

I am looking for a rep of the Rolex GMT II. Does anyone sell the GMT II with a ETA 2893-2 movement. i'm a little afraid of the 2836 movement as a true GMT. There were some really nice Pam reps ,029 and 063 out there about a year back that had the correct 2893-2 movement Thanks

Just got these two back from Ziggy yesterday. 2 Omega Seamaster 300's model 166.024. One is completely genuine, the other is a "Franken" with a genuine Omega 565 movement. When you put the two side by side, it would be difficult to pick out the "Franken". Until you turn the watch over and see the incorrect caseback and the lack of lume on the bezel, they look identical. Of course it helps that almost everything you see on the "Franken' is real Omega. Dial,hands movement. It's the watch on the left The genuine has been restored completely with Omega NOS bezel, Dial, hands and crystal. the other has now received the old dial and hands from the genuine. they were relumed by ziggy. unfortunately, the bezel and crystal that were taken off the genuine would not fit the "Franken", just a fraction difference, but that's all it takes to make a no-go for fitting genuine parts. I also tried a genuine caseback, but although it fit, the thread pitch was different. So it will have to live with what it's got. Both watches are really nice, both are on correct genuine Omega seamaster bracelets. I'm pretty happy with the way they turned out I was amazed at the lume on the NOS bezel,dial and hands. unfortunately, the fake bezel has no luminosity at all. i think the luminous numbers on the bezel are pretty neat. .

Randy, After I posted, I went back and saw that you had a 165.024. That has to be the most traditional SM300. As soon as mine get back from Rob's watch spa, I'll post pictures.I'm hoping that the genuine dial and bezel will fit on the fake. I know the hands will, as it is a genuine Omega movement. Waqtchco andWatchadoo are the best around for sourcing parts. I wasable to buy a couple of things from Watchadoo directly, after spending a bundle on the NOS bezel and dial. Seems like the Aussies have the SM300 market cornered. It would be interesting to know how they are able to source so many nice watches and parts.Timeman.net had 5 Seamaster Ploprof's last week on his site.That is truly the holy grail of Omega dive watches. I will own one one of these days, but the price is pretty steep. Good luck in your quest for parts. Even though they are expensive, at least they are still available. Try to find a Doxa sub300T NOS bezel or dial !!

Randy, First want to say that your SM300 is a really nice watch. You got a sweet one. Now, I'm no Omega expert by a long shot, but they do have some real problems. There is a lot of Tritium on the dial indices and hands. If you have a date model, you have an open "window into the movement. That tritium is 40+ years old, it's going to flake off. On the No date SM300's probably wouldn't pose such a problem, but on the 166 .024's could be bad. In fact Ziggy has 2 SM300's of mine right now. A "Remade" with genuine movement and a really nice genuine. Both are 166.024's (That is the designation for the date model for those non SM fanatics out there!!) a couple of weeks ago, my genuine started to suddenly run fast by about 30-45 minutes per day! I called Ziggy and explained the problem. He said it was caused by friction. Now the only plausible explanation that I can come up with is that some of the tritium flaked off and is floating around in the movement. What I'm doing is replacing the bezel, dial, hands and crystal on the genuine with NOS parts. Doesn't look like the tritium is aged at all on the NOS stuff as it has been inside sealed dark packages. If they fit, He is also going to relume the old genuine hands and dial from the genuine watch and replace the fake stuff on the "Remade" watch. So if thety fit, I will have a genuine with all NOS bezel, hands, dial and crystal and a fake with genuine relumed hands and dial as well as a genuine bezel and crystal. If you have a 166.024, I would urge you to either replace dial and hands with NOS or have them relumed. just insurance against future problems.

This subject has been discussed in great excruciating detail on the other forums. But here goes again. As Pugwash stated, the brands do care!! Tiffany sued ebay for allowing fake Tiffany products on the auction site, and they had Ebay dead to rights, because they bought hundreds of items and found that most were fake. Cartier, LVMH and others have mounted a vigerous campaign against sellers of fake handbags, shoes, jewelry etc. We can rarionalize til the cows come home about replicas, counterfeits, fakes, etc not hurting the companies, but the preception by the manufacturers is that counterfeits "Cheapen " their brand(s), because it greatly decreases the "exclusivity". The companies want you to lust after their products, and if you can barely afford them, you will lie, cheat and steal to have a Herme' bag. Now when the women who can afford to buy the product see every high school girl sporting "their" handbag, the matrons certainly won't buy one. Let me give you a personal experience from years back. I bought a genuine Rolex Day-Date 18k gold, President bracelet, etc. Set me back 5k and that was back in the 1980's. I was very proud of that watch, it was a real status symbol ( in my mind anyway). Well, about a year later, I bought a new car. Went to the dealership to sign the papers and pick up the new vehicle, lo and behold, the sales manager and the salesman both had Gold Rolex "Presidents"!! On closer examination, it was obvious that both had quartz movements and were obviously fake. I knew that because I had done a lot of research on watches and especially Rolex. But to the aaverage Joe, they were real. The impact on me was "why have agenuine 5k Rolex when every guy on the street had one". The exclusivity was gone. I sold mine a short time later, and went for quite a number of years before I bought another Rolex. And then, only s/s Submariners and Seadwellers. Had the Gold Rolex, not lost it's exclusivity to me, I probably would have over the years bought others. This atitude, be it good, bad or indifferent, elietist, snobbish, call it what you like,is why high end brands hate counterfeits. It erases the snob appeal when everyone can own one. The attitude of many of these companies certainly run contrary to the value system that many of us have come to embrace over the years, but remember their are many,many vainglorious people out ther who want to have the only one of something, they don't want to meet their 50k Breguet coming down the street on the arm of the postman!! Conversly how would you feel, if you had just bid sucessfully on a genuine Double Red Seadweller, shelled out 20k for this very, very rare watch and the second day you are wearing it, you spot another one on someone who obviously, to you at least can't afford this expensive watch, big letdown, you bet!! That folks is why Rolex SA and all the others are in a fight to the death against replicas,fakes counterfeits.

I've been playing around with SM300 for a few months now. As Eunomians said, the genuine are getting scarce and the price is going up like a rocket. I bought a fake, it has a "genuine movement" but it is cobbled together from parts of two different calibres. a 562 and a 565. This is a Date model with the push pull quickset. Has lots of tell tale signs of being a fake, but with a new set of hands, a NOS bezel (if it fits) and a trip to Rob for a relume of the dial, it will be a passable nice watch. It's not cheap though. Bezel was 271.00, hands 80.00 and NOS dial was 161.00 , 520.00 dollars for NOS parts, plus the watch plus getting someone to put all of it together. I'll end up with a 1k fake watch (actually only the case ands caseback will be fake if I decide to use the NOS dial on it). Unfortunately, i could have bought a nice genuine in pretty good shape for 850.00!! That's why he said buy a genuine. It will appreciate, the fake won't Parts are getting awfully hard to come by. Watchco still has some, but the "vast hoard" has shrunk. Almost no SM300 stuff. No cases, no dials, hands and bezels are still available. i think what Watchco is doing now is saving back the parts, because they buy watches that are in pretty sad shape, NOS dial,hands and bezels are put on, the movement is serviced, and they sell like hotcakes for anywhere from 950USD to almost 2k, depending on model and condition. Great collectible watches. If you can find a good fake, and their are several on Ebay right now, with skill, you can replace the hands with a gen. NOS set and relume the dial, get rid of the "stubbies" and you got a really nice replica, with a genuine movement. If folks are interested in more info about the fakes, click on this website: http://scubawatch.org/hallofshame.html

I to have been looking for one for a few weeks. as was stated, the SM world is a weird one. I was told that no true "replicas " exist, i.e. watches built from the ground up as replica with all replica parts. However, ther is a thriving business in SM "frankenwatches" Obviously in the 1960,s Omega made thousands and thousands of these, both civilian and military versions, plus tons of movements. What the fakers are doing is putting genuine movements in replica cases and then passing the watches off as genuine. Chris who posts on Equation of time, recently wrotea very good article on spotting fakes. here is the URL:http://scubawatch.org/hallofshame.html This is a very nice site with good quality photos, mostly from recent Ebay auctions, detailing what makes each watch a fake. this is a replica site, I own replicas, enjoy replicas and don't have a problem with replicas. I do have a very big problem with people who sell replicas as genuine. that is what is happening with the SM300's. Unscrupulous sellers are putting these "Frankens" on Ebay and duping people into believing that their watch is genuine. All sorts of stories. very few people are as candid as one guy who tellls you up front "the only thing genuine about the watch he is selling is the movement, everything else is fake" I bought this POS without knowing. That's and honest seller!! Others are les than honest however. Case in point: Stromberg Time who I thought to be a very reputable Ebay seller has a very "dodgy" SM300 on Ebay right now. They must be suspicious of it's provenence, because they started the bidding at .99 cents with no reserve. Normally they have a very high reserve on their watches or a pretty high "Buy it now". I emailed them, and they told me "it's all genuine, but the dial may have been refinished, but it was done lone ago, before fakers were duplicating SM300 parts. Baloney!! The watch has both an incorrect dial , a fake caseback and unusual hands. I would recommend that you read the SM300 Hall of Shame , before you bid on a Seamaster. just my 2 cents worth Arthur

I just received these from Luckyyy. I bought them for a friend, as I have no interest in contemporary Rolex and especially the LV. I don't know if this has appeared here before, but I thought I would take some side by side photos and let everyone see for themselves what the differences are beteween the two watches. As I said, I'm certainly no Contemporary Rolex expert, so possibly some of our Rolex experts will be willing to weigh in as to what they see as the difference beyond the obvious and which is closer to the real thing. First here are the things that I have observed, and these are possibly novel to these particular watches. 1. The non-=ETA was picked up at the PO, and left in the console of my truck for several days, The guy who I bought the watches for, came into town, I got the watch out of the truck, and the darn thing wouldn't start. I hand wound it, shook it, tapped it in the palm of my hand, nothing!! I told him that I would see about getting the movement repaired or replaced, which he agreed . I put the watch in my shirt pocket, and lo and behold when I got home it was running. It's been running OK since. Now I'm in a dilema, do I send it off and drop in another movement or take a chance that it is OK? 2. The MBW version came with a lot of glue on the crystal, around the cyclops, not much of a problem to remove, but come on!! MBW is supposed to be a cut above the rest. It certainly looks nice and it started and has run strong since I opened the package. The obvious: 1. Crown guards- The crown guards are shorter and more pointed on the Non-ETA. 2. Crown- The crown is smaller on the Non-ETA and the logo crown on the winding crown is smaller and not as distinct. which is more correct,I do not know. 3. Hands: The hands on the MBW are "Fatter", not much but noticable. 4. Date Wheel - The date fonts are bolder blacker and more distinct on the MBW 5. Date Mag - The date mag is better on the MBW, certainly closer to 2.5X 6. Sizes & weight weight in ounces (My postal scale is not cal. in grams) MBW 5.1oz Non-ETA 4.7 oz Bezel diameter MBW 39.91 Non-ETA 39.77 all measurements are in mm. Diameter w/ Crown MBW 44.0 Non-ETA 43.90 Depth MBW 13.42 Non-ETA 12.97 As you can see the measurements are close, but not the same. This is probably the reason that the MBW will accept genuine parts, the Non-ETA will not. My personal impression. The MBW just "feels" better. It feels more substantial, the bracelet is certainly better, the winding crown operates better and it really feels like and operates like a very substantial expensive watch. The Non-ETA just feels a liitle "Tinnier" and not as substantial. Here are the photos, the MBW is on the Right in all the photos. What do you think?

I see both of your points, but I do know that all markets are cyclical. look at what happened in the 1980'a and early 90's when there was tons of money floating around in Japan. When the Japanese economy went South, the collectibles market took a big hit. Also real estate in places like California was hit bad. the problem is a lot of folks are too young to remember the last "recession" I'm too young to remember the "Depression". IN 1983 Rolex probably sold more Rolex "Presidents" in Texas as the rest of the world combined, by 1986, you couldn't give away a President. I talked to a jeweler in Houston who deals in pre-owned Rolexes. He told me that in 1986, he stopped buying Rolex watches, he ran out of space n his safe!! All the high rollers who a few years before were sporting 18kGold Rolex watches were beating a path to the dealers trying to convert them to cash. When times get tough, the first things that stop selling are the high end luxury items, the non-essentials. Now, there is always going to be a market, the super rich aren't suddenly going to be bankrupt, but if enough "Stuff" comes on the market, it becomes a buyers market. I see that possibly happening with some of the high end watch brands. In my opinion, Rolex is probably more vulnerable than some of the other brands. Firstly, Rolex prices aren't so stratospheric that the moderately wealthy person can afford to collect a few. You could have a nice collection of 10-15 vintage Rolex Sport watches for 100-200k, and that would include some very nice models, not all vintage cosmographs perhaps, but you could have a couple of those in your collection at that price range. Now however if you are a Breguet or Patek collector, you are talking about a whole lot more money for the same number of watches. In fact you could easily blow your 200k budget on one watch, and still not be at the top end of the collecting spectrum. Because of this, I believe that the truly high end watch Marques attract a lot wealthier collector and consequently one that is better prepared to ride out a financial storm without having to liquidate his collection. The less well enowed collector may not be as fortunate should we enter a period of generalized financial turndown. I can guarantee you if times are tough and 10 DRSD's hit the market at one time, with a greatly reduced buyer pool, the prices will fall. anyone who says prices will always go up is no student of economic history! The older I get, the more concerned I get about the economic situation, especially here in the USA. I see a very "frothy" economy with a lot of room on the downside, if things start to go bad, which a lot of indicators are pointing to right now. If you have money, in the next few years, you may have a golden opportunity to acquire a lot of really nice "Stuff" at fire sale prices. The fact that Rolex is no longer supporting their older vintage watches, lends more credence to the theory that they are more the Cadillac of watches rather than the Rolls Royces or Ferraris. The more expensive and somewhat smaller brands have done a very good job of cultivating their customers by guaranteeing that they will repair and restore any watch they ever made. You can take a Breguet pocketwatch in for service that was made in 1825, and they will repair it just as if it was made in 2005. May cost a lot more, but you have the assurance that your beloved watch is going to be in good hands, and will be repaired using genuine parts. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the smaller brands with much more limited production will have a tendency to hold their prices better and appreciate more than the more mass market watches. It's really a matter of numbers. If they only made 10 of a model, 40 years back, you have a very small pool of potentially available watches, but on the other hand if 5000 were produced, there is a likelihood that a whole lot more are out there waiting to be found. Just my 2 cents worth, and as usual, I have taken the discussion far off the track of the original thread.

Most of the guys who post on the Doxa forum, from the USA, reported that they paid around 40-50 dollars per watch for the Sub750T Caribbean's, Sharkies and Professionals. That was based on a purchase price of around 1200-1300 dollars. This works out to around 4%. I believe that US Customs allows part of the purchase to come in Duty free, you pay duty on the remainder. That applies to items that are brought into the USA by individuals and declared at customs. Not completely sure about items shipped in, but I do know how much the Doxas owners are paying in customs duties. If you buy a genuine from a store you are paying the customs duties, it's just "hidden" in the cost. Doxa sells direct, so the buyer gets hit with the customs duty directly. I'm certainly not trying to be a "doomsdayer", but I do believe that it is going to get harder and harder to get reps into the USA. I don't know, and can't speak for any other country, but the facts are plain, we( our leaders) are in a hysterical state about terrorism, and national security. unfortunately for the average guy, it's very easy for the government to hide a lot of other very onerous actions under the cloak of "national security"

Just read an article related to the new anti-counterfeiting bill that Bush signed into law yesterday. there was the usual hooplah, pressure through WTO to stop intellectual property piracy, convincing other governments such as China to do a more effective job of policing their customs control, but a couple of things did stand out. They broke up a counterfeiting "ring" in the Northeast, seized over 30,000 purses and shoes (probably one container!!) Not such big news unless you were waiting for you Louie Vuitton bag!! The second and much more alarming aspect of the bill is this: The US Dept of justice, Border patrol and Customs were stepping up training of personnel to better identify and interdict counterfeit items coming into the country. Actually for us this is the scariest. Diligent customs inspectors could if they were trained and motivated, stop every single individual counterfeit item (watch) coming into the USA. Notice I say individual items. If they routinely beginning scanning every package, watches are an easy target. Here's why. One, they have no documentation. For example if I buy a genuine watch from a dealer in the EU, it will be shipped with declared value insurance, the customs form will have the real value of the watch on the decleration, and the watch is going to be well packed in a cardboard box with the watch itself inside a logoed box with all the papers, warranty, etc. How do ours come packaged. Usually wrapped with a couple of layers of bubble wrap, inside a soft sided envelope, declared for 20.00 as a gift from "Aunt Suzie"!! How much training do you think that it would take to get customs agents up to speed on this? Every soft sided package that comes through the scanner containing a watch gets pulled and opened. If it isn't inside a box within a box within a box, with a reasonable customs decleration, it gets pulled, opened and hand inspected. If it turns out to be a Seiko w instruction manual and papers, it gets resealed and sent on. But, if it's a Rolex, Cartier, Omega, etc. It will be treated as a counterfeit unless proven otherwise. I would bet that the seizure rate is going to go up drastically. Another ploy, treat it as a genuine, send the buyer a customs bill for 250.00 for his Rolex watch. How many would you order if you knew that the watch was going to cost you an extra 200-300 dollars? Rolex has a very vigorously enforced policy against "grey market" genuine Rolexe's coming into the USA from other countries. The chances are very small that someone is going to buy a genuine Rolex in Thailand, then have it shipped to the USA. Possibly some vintage or other brands, but not many new Swiss watches would be coming from the far East. So it's pretty easy to get the customs agents attuned to these facts. I hope that this doesn't come to pass, but with the constant erosion of individual freedom and liberty in this country, much of it under the guise of the "Patriot Act", we are being more closely watched, more scrutinized, I'm afraid that we are soon going to find it very difficult if not impossible to get good accurate replicas here in the USA. Probably it will be a long time, maybe never before they choke off the supply of cheap "Canal Street" reps, but those come over by the container load, probably much, much easier to get into the country. I'm not interested in those, just the good ones. If Individuals have several watches seized, or have to pay huge duties, they will be hesitant to buy. If dealers have a big percentage seized, they are going to be reluctant to ship, unless the buyer assumes complete responsibility. When that happens, the trade will dwindle to nothing.