Is Panerai Still Hot?

[aeroguy]

I understand... every person is a different human being..

Although instead of being on the safe side, some times you should be more spontaneous.. After all the small crasy stuff are that really matter in life

On the other hand I am a so called artist so don't trust blindfolded my opinion..

More spontaneous? I'm an Engineer... the real kind... the kind that loves math.

I think we're on to something here.

Artist = Pam

Engineer = Rolex

[Chronus]

It's all a flash in the pam!

[tvt]

Re: how many wataches Panerai produced pre 1990's...

I think in the context of this conversation it is pointless, if it is 30 or if it is 3,000 or even 30,000 the reality remains that Panerai is NOT a watch company steeped in history with a rich tradition of manufacturing watches. What panerai is is an excercise in marketing and making peopel THINK that there is some historic importance where there is none.

I am getting my facts from MANY sources, most notably from press materials given out by panerai themselves during a very large product introduction last year. In it they CLEARLY state (much to my surprise at the time) that Panerai had produced less than 30 watches previous to 1993. I think I have a better understanding however of where the confusion is. Most watches made by "Panerai" pre 1993 were in fact either partially or totally made by Rolex. Most of the early watches wer ein fact sourced to Rolex, some for movements only and other's for the enitre case AND movement. Oddly those Rolex movements (pocket watch movements) were not even made by Rolex themselves but rather purchased from yet another tird party. So calling those early runs "Panerais" is REALLY stretching it. Panerai themselves produced the "handful" of watches I keep talking about. They were really and instrument and tool company and had little to do with time pieces.

This is NOT a condemnation of Panerai at all, I love them and own a gen as well as many fakes but again, my point remains that if it is 30 or 30,000 watches there simply is not any real watch making history to them pre 1993.

None of this really matters except for the fact that we are talking about what is "hot". Some people think "They have been around for 100 years, they have stood the test of time, bla bla bla" and my point is simply that no they have not! They have NOT stood the test of time at all. Those 30 or 30,000 watches weremilitary tools that had nothing to do with fashion or the public or being "hot" or being well designed. They have been publicly sold products for 10 years and during that time became the "hot" watch and now we are seeing them become less hot. it will be interesting to see how they respond.

I agre with an earlier poster who suggested that Richemont may be happy to have them NOT be "hot" any longer. You see being "hot" suggests a fad and a flash in the pan and not being judged on real merit but rather some percoieved social status or something. Richemont seems to be trying to make Panerai into a legit watch making company and if they succeed it could ensure the longevity of the brand. But the question was not "Will Panerai continue to sell watches for decades more?" rather it was "Is Panerai still Hot." Two different answeres to those questions.

[thewightstuff]

tvt,

agree entirely. i knew we were pretty much saying the same thing

as you point out, alot has to do with where you make the distinction regarding their making. i was taking the broader sense that anything that came out of there should be credited to them incl the many divers watches with crown levers that are clearly also of the panerai design.

my own thoughts were that this was however somewhat of a stretch from a technical point of view given the outsourcing of all the components in many cases whether it be rolex, angelus or any other manufacturer.

also agree ref the distinction in the way the topic is turning. as you say, it was " is panerai hot"

my own thoughts are that im somewhat conflicted. the short answer is no, im seeing a huge sell off amongst WIS however im also seeing much more mainstream exposure in TV shows, commercials and magazines which would tend to suggest that interest amongst the otherwise unknowing, at the moment, public is bound to increase

all i can say is that short of a vintage pam project i want to make with a cortebert movement, my interest in panerai has somewhat peaked and my vintage rolex is back on my wrist once more

[tvt]

>>>im seeing a huge sell off amongst WIS however im also seeing much more mainstream exposure in TV shows, commercials and magazines which would tend to suggest that interest amongst the otherwise unknowing, at the moment, public is bound to increase<<<

I think the fact that you are seeing more Panerai advertising and so forth is evidence that they are NOT as "hot" as they once were. As my anaolgy tried to point out concering night clubs, when a company has to start pushing it's product harder then it has lost it's "heat". A Hot product in essence sells itself, people want it and those trendsetters are aware of them. By the time the genral public at large knows about them then they are really no longer hot.

I guess a lot comes down to what people mean by "hot". Do they mean selling well? Do they mean that they are desirable or considered cool? Do they mean your Mom has heard of them so they have become a household name?

To me hot when applied to a luxury item like a watch means that it is the latest and greatest thing, a trendy item that people really want and that are hard to get. In a slightly off topic way you could say a PlayStation 3 is "hot" right now. Everybody wants one but few can get them. Next Christmas when there are millions of PS3 units available it will no longer be hot, though it will in fact have sold many more units and be more profitable then it is now. So hotness to me has more to do with public reaction towards something than it does with profit or even sales.

There is no doubt that panerai are MUCH more available now then they once were... more dealers carry them, they make MANY times more than they used to and even "rare" models can commonly be found in retailers windows. They simply are not the hot thing anymore, which is not to say that I don't love them.

Listen, no Rolex model with the possible exception of a S.S. Daytona could be considered hot, and yet they are supremely succesfull and porfitable... so it is all in the eye of the beholder I guess.

[hambone]

["I think the fact that you are seeing more Panerai advertising and so forth is evidence that they are NOT as "hot" as they once were. As my anology tried to point out concerning night clubs, when a company has to start pushing it's product harder then it has lost it's "heat". A Hot product in essence sells itself, people want it and those trendsetters are aware of them. By the time the genral public at large knows about them then they are really no longer hot. " ]

The largest and oldest watch companies advertise as if they were McDonalds. That is what keeps name recognition alive and well and in the public conscience. To suggest that a product is not "hot" because of excessive advertising is to miss the fundamental concept of marketing in todays world. Another thing, Panerai watches and other watches of their caliber, Rolex, Breitling, Hublot, Patek Phillipe etc. are not in the same category as clothing. Fine watches are have far more in common with fine works of art. There are artists who have not been around for as long as Panerai watches and their names are secure in history, just as Panerai's name is secure and they will continue to create wearable works of art for as long as the public demands them. Given the tremendous amount of appreciation for the Panerai brand and how infective the collecting bug for them has become worldwide, I am quite sure they will ba around in a big way for many decades to come and more.

[thewightstuff]

i think what TVT was saying was that the debate regarding whether it was still hot or not and the one concerning brand longevity are not the same thing.

as i said before, im seeing PAMs all over the place for sale just now which can only show one thing. many people are getting out which would suggest many are feeling that they arent too hot anymore. when you look at the small numbers produced, the plethora of used models everywhere is even more stark. interestingly prices are down too on used quite a bit.

one of the many reasons i pulled a buying of a radiomir. i love the vintage models and the 1950 but im not feeling the brand like i once did.

ref longevity, im sure they arent going to disappear though it will be interesting to see where they do go.

[tvt]

There simply is no debate here and to not understand how excessive advertising equates to a product losing it's "heat" is to miss the fundamental idea of what this conversation is even about!

Fact: Panerai sales are down per capita for the first time since the modern exisitence of the company. Meaning that the total percentage of watches sold as compared ot those produced is lower than it has ever been. this likely means that they are simply producing too many watches, not that the gross numbers are down 9I bet in fact that they are up), but still, over production is NOT a good thing and certainly NOT a sign of being a "hot" brand.

Fact: Certain models that were impossible to find in dealers just a year ago (Power reserves, submersibles, GMTs, any of the actual limited editions) are now quite commonly seen on the shelf. This ease of availibility is again a sign of lost "heat".

Fact: The secondary market for PAMS is absolutley busting at the seems and has driven prices for that market DOWN. Of course extremely rare pieces are still selling for high prices but the more common models that just a year or two back would hold thier value very well now commonly sell for BIG discounts off od retail on the secondary market. Again, a direct result of over production / los of desirability (ie: hottness).

These are not debatable issues, these are simply the facts. So if any reasonable person looks at the facts the conclusion is simple: Panerai is not as "hot" as it once was. As a phenomenon it has peaked just as ALL trends and phenomenons do. THAT was the question asked which we were answering it has NOTHING to do with the longevity of the brand name "Panerai" or it's place in history. Patek is not exactly a "hot" brand, in fact it is almost theo polar opposite of "hot". Few peopel know about it, there is nothing trendy or tred setting about it and yet they are immensely well respected and desired in certain circles. "Hot" does not necessarily mean "good".

You may feel that panerais place in history is secure, I am not presumptious enough to think that a 10 year old company has secured anything at all just yet. In fact is barely has any actual watch history at all (for God's sake is just now made it's first movement". In 50 years time we can START to judge Panerais place in history as a watch making company, until then it is all speculation and conjecture.

Lastly, regarding advertising, tell me, the hottest, newest, coolest club or resaraunt near you... do they advertise like McDonald's does? Brands that do, Brietling, Omega, Tag, Rolex and now Panerai are NOT "hot" brands... they may be great brands, storied brands, desirable brands... but they are not "hot" brands.

[hambone]

Thank you TVT for that commentary. Where is it that you get your 'facts' ? I don't dispute them, just wondering. If Panerai sales are down then that is the cycle they are in, however I am more than certain the Panerai brand will be around in the next 50 to 100 years and more, providing civilization as we know it still is.

As I said, watchmaking is an art form and in regard to this or any subject, there is nothing that cannot be debated.

[mrnixon]

I guess one way of seeing how hot a brand or a modell is, can be to look at the prices the watch is sold for from a safe seller on Ebay. My impression is that the basic models nib are sold for prices rather close to retail prices, but that more expensive ones are loosing more value.

Personally I would not buy a 127 (1950) for the prices they are asking for on Ebay. At that price the watch purchase becomes partly also an investment decision. I really like the watch, it is very nice. But I am not sure I will love it so much in 10 years when taste and fashion probably have changed. If that happens to a 1000 dollar watch it is not the end of the world, but if it is a 10 000 usd watch it is a bit too much for a fasion item I think.

Just for comparison. 10-15 years ago the fashion was that the watches should be really thin. Today those thin watches feel rather cold I think and you can get the really good brands JLC, IWC etc for rediculously low prices.

[tvt]

Hambone:

It's hard to say exactly where any individual fact comes from because I am not getting them from some single source like a web site or a document. Rather most of this is just commonly accpeted knowledge as reported in most watch trade magazines and can easily be seen if you follow discussions on some of the Panerai boards and forums (and track what things are being sold for). Additionaly some of it is simply anacdotal evidence like the fact that I now see MANY more Panerai sitting at dealers than ever before. Plus I know some of the dealers well enough that they are fairly open with me about their sales info and what the Panerai reps tell them about world wide sales.

While Panerai does not release official sales figures the trade magazines track them and post each brands sales and Panerais are down for the first time in 9 years. I think they have sold more watches than ever before but they produced MANY more watches than ever before as well. So when I say "down" I mean from a percentage point of view, which for a niche brand like Panerai is more telling than gross sales numbers.

The real bottom line here is simply that Panerai are no longer (or atleast not as much as previously) the "new" and "hot" watch on the market. This however does not mean that it is not a GREAT watch or a watch that wille arn some place in history, it just means that it is not as new and trendy as it once was which I think is probably a GOOD thing.

I do thinkPanerai has a LONG way to go in order to earn it's way into any significant role in watch history however. Thus far it is most notable for some really great marketing, now lets see if they can get into some great and inovative watch making. But I enjoy them for sure, I onw 1 gen, have owned others gens in the past and I think I have 6 fakes... so I am a fan for sure.

[Watchmeister]

I think the nightclub/hot brand is an excellent analogy. Things are hot as long as demand far exceeds supply. Clearly this was the case for PAM over the first few years. Now Richemont is trying to do the intelligent thing and move it into the mainstream. It a lot easier to have a limited production item achieve hot status. You can relatively easily sell them out. It is interesting that the second-hand market is coming down as the number of pieces in the aftermarket grows. It makes sense as that is true for far more established brands as well.