Will gens eventually lose their value?

[southcoast68]

kruzer00, glad to know someone else knows this fact Most of those high end bags are actually made in China and sell for a whole lot less than 1 to 1.5 grand. Yes you can indeed walk into the brands boutique with them and they WILL NOT know the difference, pretty amazing if you ask me. Bags are way easier to replicate than watches, as you pointed out, watches carry mechanical elements which may not be as easy to replicate.

However I believe that what can be done with bags/footwear and clothes (I know someone who ordered over 500 Ralph Lauren Polos made at 1:1 copy) can also be done with watches on the most part.

Perhaps they can't be replicated 100% yet but if factories wanted to they can get damn close. In fact if you order in a large enough quantity, a factory can even make them for you, but be prepared to spend big money, the minimum order quantity won't be low. For whatever reason, the replica factories are INTENTIONALLY producing reps which are not as accurate as many on this board would like them.

One of the reasons this is all possible is that many manufacturers outsource the production of parts and materials to China based companies, this has been the case for a long time and is no secret. While companies like Rolex now produce most of thier parts and supplies in-house with no out sourcing (dials and other items used to be out sourced), other higher end manufacturers do still outsource. This business practice has afforded the Chinese better facilities, machining, and a better ability to produce luxury grade items for the legitimate market as well as the rep market. Now I do not know how many other watch manufacturers out source some of thier production, but in todays global economy, you gotta know its happening on a regular basis. Seems to me that if someone were to spend 5 figures on a "Swiss Made" watch, the buyer should be getting just that, a 100% Swiss Made watch, not a watch that may contain parts originated somewhere else. I beleive there are rumors of the Swiss eventually cracking down on the definition of "Swiss Made", and if they do, guess what? Gen prices will go up again making the purchase of REPS an even more attractive proposition to more folks. Earlier this year I bought a new car and on its sticker was full disclosure of the origin of its major components (engine from Germany, transmission from France) as well as its final assembly place. I wonder if the makers of luxury items were required to legally list the same information on thier price tags, what would it say, hmmmm. BTW, the car I bought was a Ford Mustang, an american icon created with components made in a global economy, and while you can't compare a Ford to a BMW or Mercedes in quality or price, it does proove that just becase something appears as being made in a certain place with certain parts, you never can truly know the whole story.

Are GEN watches overpriced? Yes. Are they the coolest? Yes. Will I continue to collect watches? Yes, some GEN some REP, and that has nothing to do with whether I can afford a GEN, but it has everything to do with whether I can justify the price. Since I see the GEN values going only up from here, my collecting will eventually shift to other cool brands who's cost is more reasonable.

[TeeJay]

Replica handbag makers impacted the way gen handbag makers offer their goods, and their pricing for a "real" handbag which no matter how good the copy, a woman can more easily spot as real or not.

Do you think though, that that is simply the same basic 'brand recognition', which a watch enthusiast can use to tell if someone is wearing a rep or a gen watch, and the same basic principles applying? For example, someone wearing jeans, t-shirt and driving a crappy car, not so likely to be wearing a gen watch. By comparison, a woman wearing shabby clothes and driving a crappy car, not so likely to be carrying a gen handbag. I admit, that 'wearing it, or it wears you' method isn't 100% accurate, and is just an example, but, who's to say that just because someone is carrying last season's handbag, it has to be considered a rep? Maybe they just like the bag (this comes from the person who has used a promotional PS2 carry bag since the console was launched, simply because it met all my needs, and is now on the verge of structural collapse ) Emily's dad has given her several bags over the years, which, in theory could be (and he passed them off as) genuine, but, knowing the person behind the gift, we highly suspect to be fake. When he saw the Dior bag I got her for Christmas from Ken, it was never questioned, nor were the Mont Blanc pen and cufflinks I gave him. Under any other circumstances, I would say passing a rep item off as a gen item as a gift is an incredibly tacky thing to do, but, I would preface that by pointing out that a) I never actually told him they were gen, he made that assumption (helped by the lovely box the cufflinks came in (thanks to Narikaa for those items ) and b ) bear in mind that this is the man who owes so much in back-payments of childsupport, he will be repaying it untill Emily is in her 30s. (so not really deserving courteous treatment)

Edited December 28, 2007 by TeeJay

[Victoria]

Do you think though, that that is simply the same basic 'brand recognition', which a watch enthusiast can use to tell if someone is wearing a rep or a gen watch, and the same basic principles applying?

Hey TeeJay!

In theory, yes, I think the same "tells" apply. Here is where they differ, IMHO.

For example, someone wearing jeans, t-shirt and driving a crappy car, not so likely to be wearing a gen watch. By comparison, a woman wearing shabby clothes and driving a crappy car, not so likely to be carrying a gen handbag.

A woman's judgementalism of another is more physical, than a man's. A man seems to target earning-power objects like cars and indeed, the watch itself. Ours seems to rely on accessories (shoes, jewelry) which CAN be just as expensive sometimes.

Have you ever seen the price of a pair of Jimmy Choos?

But also, it's about overall presentation -- nice manicure, pedicure, good style of hair, quality of clothes. That's not something men are socialised to notice or care about, I think.

I admit, that 'wearing it, or it wears you' method isn't 100% accurate, and is just an example, but, who's to say that just because someone is carrying last season's handbag, it has to be considered a rep?

It throws some doubt, but not necessarily. In fact, sometimes it's the opposite -- a model which hasn't hit the shops yet elicits surprise, and doubt. Do you remember when the LV Cerises series came out? (Perhaps not. *g*). Certain women were doubtful of the authenticity of said bags at first.

Emily's dad has given her several bags over the years, which, in theory could be (and he passed them off as) genuine, but, knowing the person behind the gift, we highly suspect to be fake.

Nice guy...but then we know him, alas.

When he saw the Dior bag I got her for Christmas from Ken, it was never questioned, nor were the Mont Blanc pen and cufflinks I gave him. Under any other circumstances, I would say passing a rep item off as a gen item as a gift is an incredibly tacky thing to do, but, I would preface that by pointing out that a) I never actually told him they were gen, he made that assumption (helped by the lovely box the cufflinks came in (thanks to Narikaa for those items ) and b ) bear in mind that this is the man who owes so much in back-payments of childsupport, he will be repaying it untill Emily is in her 30s. (so not really deserving courteous treatment)

You are too kind to give anything. Maybe I would too, but it wouldn't be nice items like Ken's.

TeeJay, I am still in your debt, I haven't forgotten! I apologise publicly though, and hope to address this for the New Year!

[TeeJay]

In theory, yes, I think the same "tells" apply. Here is where they differ, IMHO.

A woman's judgementalism of another is more physical, than a man's. A man seems to target earning-power objects like cars and indeed, the watch itself. Ours seems to rely on accessories (shoes, jewelry) which CAN be just as expensive sometimes.

But also, it's about overall presentation -- nice manicure, pedicure, good style of hair, quality of clothes. That's not something men are socialised to notice or care about, I think.

Oh indeed, different factors, but overall, the impression created (by whatever means) is that the person with the 'expensive item', might not have 'deep enough pockets' (about as polite a phrase as it gets ) to buy the gen item. It's a bit like seeing a young person driving an expensive car. The automatic assumption is that they're driving a parent's car, rather than it being their own property (as it's a bit harder (but not impossible) to get a fake car )

Indeed, things like you've mentioned, a man might not notice, but another woman might, where, to flip the situation, another man might spot a rep watch, but a woman might not. I had my 127 on open display all through boxing day (I had to wear a T-Shirt, as Emily's dad's house is like a sweatbox ) but it did not elicit one comment. Given that he works (at a stretch of the definition) in the watch industry, he should at least have recognized (or rather not recognized it) as an uncommon brand, which might in itself have elicited an enquiry, but not a whisper I guess what I'm trying to say, is that people need to know what they're actually looking at, before the issue of gen/rep can even begin to come into play

Have you ever seen the price of a pair of Jimmy Choos?

Actually, I have not, but, I have no doubt that they are costly. I've seen Devil Wears Prada enough to know that

It throws some doubt, but not necessarily. In fact, sometimes it's the opposite -- a model which hasn't hit the shops yet elicits surprise, and doubt. Do you remember when the LV Cerises series came out? (Perhaps not. *g*). Certain women were doubtful of the authenticity of said bags at first.

I know what you mean, especially as if someone is familiar with a brand's catalogue, an unidentified product can raise suspicion. That said, I didn't know that there was a red-dialled SMP, so when I saw a pic of one, I thought it was a fantasy model, until it was explained that it was for the Asian market, and then it's a case of just not being familiar with a brand's entire catalogue

Nice guy...but then we know him, alas.

You are too kind to give anything. Maybe I would too, but it wouldn't be nice items like Ken's.

Actually, Ken's lovely wallet went to Emily's step-grandfather, her dad got a pen and cuff-links from Narikaa, which, while incredibly nice, were the cheapest of all the presents I gave out, so, although he thought they were expensive (and has been flashing them about for two days in a row ) he got the least spent on him, and even then, that was being over generous. I just didn't want to give him the oportunity to say I hadn't got him anything

TeeJay, I am still in your debt, I haven't forgotten! I apologise publicly though, and hope to address this for the New Year!

It's honestly not a problem I have my 127 on it's new dive strap (I'm in a 'scruffy' rather than 'casual' mood today ) I'm possibly giving my 111h away, but, Me So Horny will find a good home on my 029a or PVD 111g (they just might not see much wrist time, as the 127 has really secured it's place as favorite ) I know you've had a lot of things to deal with, so no hurry at all

Edited December 29, 2007 by TeeJay

[DemonSlayer]

It may be a while before reps effect prices of gens, if at all, but one thing is for certain, reps are getting extremely easy to find on the net these days.

I just did a search of "audemars piguet royal oak" and on the first page of google, there are 2 links to cqout auctions

Even just searching for images of the known brands on this board, almost always results in auctions from ioffer, cqout etc. Even this board comes up on searches when something what I think is a bit common, typed in, for example I typed in "rambo panerai" on google the other day and the topic started by TeeJay came up on the first page of google results

Auction sites such as cqout and ioffer are definitely exposing replicas to the public in general.

[freddy333]

Even just searching for images of the known brands on this board, almost always results in auctions from ioffer, cqout etc. Even this board comes up on searches when something what I think is a bit common, typed in, for example I typed in "rambo panerai" on google the other day and the topic started by TeeJay came up on the first page of google results

It may already be too late (since so many pages of RWG have already been added to google & most of the other search engines), but this is why it would be a good idea for the Admins to use a robots.txt file or whatever to block indexing spiders from accessing RWG. In the meantime, members should assume that anything & everything they post here or include in their profiles is now public knowledge & could someday be used against you. I say again -- This is a ticking time-bomb just waiting to go off.

[jens]

It may already be too late (since so many pages of RWG have already been added to google & most of the other search engines), but this is why it would be a good idea for the Admins to use a robots.txt file or whatever to block indexing spiders from accessing RWG. In the meantime, members should assume that anything & everything they post here or include in their profiles is now public knowledge & could someday be used against you. I say again -- This is a ticking time-bomb just waiting to go off.

I think you are right. One is for sure - in most countries, and for sure in the US and EU, even to the top in G7, counterfeiting has become a hot issue. Industries fights for their bottom line results, countries for their tax income, and they more and more often team up to fight against these 'serious echonomical crimes who funds terrorism'. Reading official documents makes it very clear that this is regarded as a serious threat, and that harmonized action plans has been established and is in the progress of beeing implemented in the field.

For EU countries, the deadline for harmonized legislation was sept./oct. '07, and measures as a common 'Customs Information System', financial tracking and analyzis systems (AML), partnership programmes with various industries (including dedicated customs personell trained by the industries) is in it's early phase of operation.

However, I do think that we are a small [censored] in the corner for the time beeing - as always they hunt the biggest fishes in the first place, after all watches does not represent the same value and implications as other fakes like medecines, electronics, car and aero parts a.s.o. do. But we are for sure not excluded from the picture, and for sure a lot of information has already been gathered concerning players and financial aspects of the activity, most of it by the industry itself.

Posting info on boards like this will not change anything. Other than taking normal precautions not to exploit more info about yourself and others than necessary, act as normal.

To avoid search engines to access the pages can stop Google and the likes, but it will never stop the spiders/crawlers combined with the data mining techniques of the authorities or companies investigating these matters, absolutly not.

They are far more sophisticated than most people can imagine, add that to the fact that they have access to financial transactions, personal data, communication (traffic) data, and much more.

To conclude, the best thing to do is to behave as normal, don't let CFO's of Hublot get [censored] off, say no more (personal info) than you have to, and always remember that it's almost impossible (for a normal activity) to hide on the web if someone with the right tools at hand really wants to find you. This is a public place, never ever forget that.

We are the small fishes in the bowl, hopefully we will be regarded as that even in the future.

[freddy333]

A major toy company once tried to sue our company for trademark infringement after finding a page on our website that contained a single image of one of their products. They located us (along with many, many other companies) by googleing the name of their toy. They then had their lawyers contact every website operator listed on the first 10 pages of search results on the major search engines (google, yahoo, excite, etc.) & then serve each one with papers outlining the suit. They also wanted access to our server log files to track down every visitor who may have viewed the image. Believe me, these guys are serious & they do not play nice. Fortunately, in our case, we were able to come to an agreement with the toy company & avoid more serious legal entanglements. The RIAA did something similar when they went after Napster & the other music/file sharing sites a few years ago. I believe that RWG has already been visited by execs from at least 1 major watch brand, so we are already known to them. And with RWG coming up so prominently in google searches, I do not think we should assume we are just a small fish anymore. The way I see it, the bomb is slowly ticking away, but it may speed up if/when the current economic slowdown begins to seriously effect the gen's bottom line.

[jens]

A major toy company once tried to sue our company for trademark infringement after finding a page on our website that contained a single image of one of their products. They located us (along with many, many other companies) by searching for google for the name of their toy. They then had their lawyers contact every website operator listed on the first 10 pages of search results on the major search engines (google, yahoo, excite, etc.) & then serve each one with papers outlining the suit. They also wanted access to our server log files to track down every visitor who may have viewed the image. Believe me, these guys are serious & they do not play nice. Fortunately, in our case, we were able to come to an agreement with the toy company & avoid more serious legal entanglements. The RIAA did something similar when they went after Napster & the other music/file sharing sites a few years ago. I believe that RWG has already been visited by execs from at least 1 major watch brand, so we are already known to them. And with RWG coming up so prominently in google searches, I do not think we should assume we are just a small fish anymore. The way I see it, the bomb is slowly ticking away, but it may speed up if/when the current economic slowdown begins to seriously effect the gen's bottom line.

Hi,

First of all, I do agree that one should try to keep a low profile whenever possible. My point is that it will not make a big difference as long as the countfeit business in general is investigated.

Your example seems to me to be a classic example of a trademark (or whatsoever) owner that 'found' his product by using a standard search engine, contacted his lawyers who took it from there, and got the result they wanted. Your company was an easy match.

The way they explore the counterfeit (and other) business is quite different; they want to go to the heart of things, and open info on a board like this is just a fraction (but still important of course) of the total info they gather.

And then who are 'they'? We know from open scources (thanks for that) that the swiss industry have initiated several actions, one of them is to have a leading company in e-intelligence to spider the web in order to get a clear picture of the nature of the industry, who is involved and where to attack. There is reason to beleive that they cooperate with the authorities, as financial flow data will be necessary to make data mining and analyzis models more effective.

I have seen the outcome of such data mining methods as used by the tax authorities myself, (luckily not targeted at me), and this is really, really really freightening. They found the tiniest bit of information, combined financial transactions with other info and established the correct relations for what seems to be completly independent material, and made up the complete picture in a correct way. All this by 'simply' applying automated data mining and pattern recognition/analyzis, and let the computer do the legwork. It has to be mentioned that none of the info they found was indexed by any search engine.

So I see your point, but I still think we are small fishes - we might even be the bait they need to perform their data mining and analyzis in a more efficient way......

Speaking for my part of the world only, I think the cost/benefit for a manufacturer to sue a single person for such a small value will be far to high, but that might be different in other countries.

And you are completly right with respect to assuming something - we should never assume anything.