Details Of A DW 6263 Vintage Cosmograph (Daytona)

[eunomians]

I do not see prices dropping ever. Ok, a little bit, a little makert-settling, if u will. But prices will not go down. They will rise, rise, rise. Most of these oldies are no longer supported by Rolex service centers. They are rare. And they are semi-affordable for the serious collector. They are being snatched up quickly. And they are being kept.

Some things had to drop a bit. 1016, for example. Fashion comes and goes. But 6263/5 will never drop. It has been utter madness for many years now. It is thee archaetypal chronograph. It is the model that others are tested against. How many watches were V72 powered and why is the Rolex version the most coveted??? Why are there 50,000 Sub clones??? The answers are simple: Roelx had an uncanny gift to make perfect watches. Some may have not been perfect at the time of release, but in time, with the dust settling, perfection is suddenly apparent. Think along the lines of a Pinot Noir, or a fine whiskey. Age adds to perfection. Things taken out of one context and placed into another can be formidable. This is what Vintage Rolex is all about.

Signed,

Diehard WIS Euno

[bkatbamna]

Very nice write up. I'm generally not into vintages but that one does something for me.

[ubiquitous]

I dunno Euno. I agree to an extent, but I feel that the market is largely artifically inflated by a few key individuals. Along with the fact that RSC's are scaling back on servicing, and in some cases authentication (I've heard of this taking place now in certain instances), and add in the number of high end replicas entering the market... I just don't see certain pieces maintaining the same value the way that Pateks or APs do. Rolex alienates a very important sector of their clientale; many of them are starting to look towards a higher level of horology to spend their money on. And when the important collectors who are not afraid to throw down the big money for collectable pieces have no more interest in Rolex, the prices will faulter.

Just my humble $0.02.

[eunomians]

Interesting thoughts...

Sure the Rolex market is manipulated by a select few, and I know who they are, too.

But, hype and provenance are still key factors in collectability. When I'm in Tokyo, it all makes sense. When I'm in Shanghai or Kowloon, it all makes sense. When I'm in Italy, it all makes sense. Forget about new. In with the old. In with the no longer. Sure, new hand-made movements are mind-bending, but a vintage movement is hotter. A 1954 300SL Gullwing will never be made again. They are 'no longer'. Now that adds something to the mix.

Here's 2 opposites for ya (my opinion):

I believe that Red Sub is worth more now becasue of all the fakes.

I know that 6263 is not worth less because of high end fakes (that have been around since the late 80s).

All markets are corrupt. But people still throw money around.

[ubiquitous]

All great points. However, I believe that a watch is only worth what a collector will pay. Collectors value provenance, worth, condition, rarity, and support from the manufacturer to help maintain the value and longevity of their valuable pieces in their collection. This is, in my opinion where Rolex will go wrong. The popular sports models of the 50's and 60's will no longer be supported. The availability of original parts are controlled in large by Rolex and their service centers. They're cutting their fan base and following off at the knees. We all know how important all original parts are, along with regular servicing to the value and provenance of a genuine vintage Rolex. Because collectors will be forced to service their watches at 3rd party watchmakers using non-genuine parts, the bloodline of the watch will be less than desirable to the Purists, and hence of lower value. The lack of support is the major downfall, in my opinion; the watches that will be worth anything will be the safe queens, and even then, you have to find someone willing to pay the money for a watch that Rolex won't touch in 10 years, let alone 40 - 50. I personally believe that many of the serious collectors will be moving to Patek and other haute horology marques; I'm already seeing this take place now. Patek offers full support and service of their pieces for vintage and current, and this is a value that many see as essential. To use the Mercedes Benz Gullwing as an example- Mercedes still supports those collectors with a 300SL in the garage (or hanger, warehouse, etc), which makes servicing the cars still possible, as well as more valuable. The smart brands keep their clients happy by ensuring their valued vintage pieces will live on. Rolex just doesn't see it that way.

In the meantime, the big league dealers (K, JD, etc) continue to pump and dump the market by pushing values up with larger and even more overwhelming price tags, yet these same dealers own maybe one or two vintage Rolex in their own personal collections with the majority being haute brands.

Don't get me wrong; I love vintage Rolex. They have character, and value as a well built watch. I just think the prices and market for some of these pieces are beyond ridiculous and not even remotely reasonable, and I do think that a reality check is bound to happen soon, as people will be turned away by the manufacturer of their watch(es) for routine servicing. I think the people who are heavy in building collections will start looking at the big 3 and other high end brands for their value in complicated time pieces with precious metal, more brand cache and most importantly, the manufacturer's support in making sure their timepieces last for many more generations to come.

[panerai153]

I see both of your points, but I do know that all markets are cyclical. look at what happened in the 1980'a and early 90's when there was tons of money floating around in Japan. When the Japanese economy went South, the collectibles market took a big hit. Also real estate in places like California was hit bad. the problem is a lot of folks are too young to remember the last "recession" I'm too young to remember the "Depression". IN 1983 Rolex probably sold more Rolex "Presidents" in Texas as the rest of the world combined, by 1986, you couldn't give away a President. I talked to a jeweler in Houston who deals in pre-owned Rolexes. He told me that in 1986, he stopped buying Rolex watches, he ran out of space n his safe!! All the high rollers who a few years before were sporting 18kGold Rolex watches were beating a path to the dealers trying to convert them to cash. When times get tough, the first things that stop selling are the high end luxury items, the non-essentials.

Now, there is always going to be a market, the super rich aren't suddenly going to be bankrupt, but if enough "Stuff" comes on the market, it becomes a buyers market. I see that possibly happening with some of the high end watch brands. In my opinion, Rolex is probably more vulnerable than some of the other brands. Firstly, Rolex prices aren't so stratospheric that the moderately wealthy person can afford to collect a few. You could have a nice collection of 10-15 vintage Rolex Sport watches for 100-200k, and that would include some very nice models, not all vintage cosmographs perhaps, but you could have a couple of those in your collection at that price range. Now however if you are a Breguet or Patek collector, you are talking about a whole lot more money for the same number of watches. In fact you could easily blow your 200k budget on one watch, and still not be at the top end of the collecting spectrum. Because of this, I believe that the truly high end watch Marques attract a lot wealthier collector and consequently one that is better prepared to ride out a financial storm without having to liquidate his collection. The less well enowed collector may not be as fortunate should we enter a period of generalized financial turndown. I can guarantee you if times are tough and 10 DRSD's hit the market at one time, with a greatly reduced buyer pool, the prices will fall. anyone who says prices will always go up is no student of economic history! The older I get, the more concerned I get about the economic situation, especially here in the USA. I see a very "frothy" economy with a lot of room on the downside, if things start to go bad, which a lot of indicators are pointing to right now. If you have money, in the next few years, you may have a golden opportunity to acquire a lot of really nice "Stuff" at fire sale prices.

The fact that Rolex is no longer supporting their older vintage watches, lends more credence to the theory that they are more the Cadillac of watches rather than the Rolls Royces or Ferraris. The more expensive and somewhat smaller brands have done a very good job of cultivating their customers by guaranteeing that they will repair and restore any watch they ever made. You can take a Breguet pocketwatch in for service that was made in 1825, and they will repair it just as if it was made in 2005. May cost a lot more, but you have the assurance that your beloved watch is going to be in good hands, and will be repaired using genuine parts. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the smaller brands with much more limited production will have a tendency to hold their prices better and appreciate more than the more mass market watches. It's really a matter of numbers. If they only made 10 of a model, 40 years back, you have a very small pool of potentially available watches, but on the other hand if 5000 were produced, there is a likelihood that a whole lot more are out there waiting to be found. Just my 2 cents worth, and as usual, I have taken the discussion far off the track of the original thread.

[eunomians]

Fascinating points, gentlemen.

I do remember the bubble burst in Japan. I remember the mid-80s recession in California...

I just wish that I had an early Victorian Breguet pocketwatch that kept time in order for the world around me.

Best regards

And yes, the markets are indeed cyclical. History is indeed cyclical despite modernity being long gone (for the time being).

[ubiquitous]

I suppose at the end of the day, my gripe is that there are many individuals out there who are buying vintage Rolex for the wrong reason, and in my opinion, pushing up values artificially. I've heard some people even go so far as to say 'I buy Rolex because it's a safer bet than stocks'. I couldn't believe it.

[eunomians]

I have heard poeple say similar things. Pretty silly IMHO. Banking on watches is foolish if u expect to make big $.

I'll stick to 1st edition books, antiquarian coins & my stocks.

[ubiquitous]

Euno- My thoughts exactly, buddy! Buy watches because you enjoy them, not for speculation! If they happen to go up in value, it should be considered a nice little benefit in addition to having a great watch!