Do you think Citigroup will collapse?

[Demsey]

"If at first you don't succeed, then maybe skydiving isn't quite for you."

lol, yeah I caught that too. Too funny...................

Perhaps now that the brokers are 'modifying' their approach, perhaps it's time to rewrite the truisms as well. Ahem........

"Investment banking in itself is not inherently

dangerous. But to an even greater degree than sharing a heroin spike, it is terribly

unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect."

Edited March 10, 2009 by Demsey

[Guest asim]

I read the comments with great enthusiasm and I believe that realism is key. The media sways what people ought to think and feel about the markets and again, I can't stand people following the crowds.

Robbie mentioned that when certain markets are going up, not every company will go up with it either.

A company is not a representation of a market as a whole, no, it is a single entity and we ought to analyse it as such. The market it is in is just a premise that the company in question has more potentials than what it already has.

If we follow what others are saying, we are not risk managing ourselves. Risk management is personally key. You can take any risk, as long as you can afford to do it by either hedging yourself or whatever other mean at your disposal.

Everybody has their own game plan in the markets. Some play like this, some play like that. Some make profits today and may make losses tomorrow.

The fund manager I worked for in the summer for my internship (at Raymond James), told me a few days ago that his relative returns were pretty good but actual returns sucked. He was down 18-25% as opposed to the markets being down 40% at that stage, you see what I mean.

"If you know what will happen tomorrow, you are a very rich guy", Anton Kreil at Goldman Sachs, "so just keep your eyes open to anything and everything that affects the markets 24/7".

Happy days are ahead of us

[Demsey]

I believe that realism is key.

YES!

the markets being down 40% at that stage

The media focus. The Pied Piper's tune gathering the lemmings to the precipice; the 'crowd'.

He was down 18-25%

The reality. In a balanced portfolio. My experince, as I mentioned above "the review looked better on paper than in the media".

My wife and I use our gainful income to manage household 'budget'. The investments in the 'now' are for 'extras' that are too 'necessities' thnat you cannot budget out; automotive, children's medical outside the scope of insurance; orthodontist, dentist etc. perhaps new household appliances or upgrades or storm repair etc., etc., blah, but the main purpose of investment portfolio is our 'future' and 'legacy' to other generations. When looking at the whole pie, we saw the top 25% of the portfolio as 'not there'. Didn't count on it for 'income', nor 'collateral', just let it roll over for a long horizon that we won't even be a part.

Looking at it that way; we're still 'even' in prosperity as we were in '07 even if it doesn't look that way on 'paper'; the 18-25% realistic loss.

It will be nice when we can look back on this having not merely 'survivied', but realized our safeguards had worked as planned. The pundits say this is the worst case scenerio of the past seventy years. Considering the horrors of 'history' and what is currently going on globally with regard to human rights? This 'aint squat.

Onward!

[Guest asim]

That's true.

At the end of the day, as a human race we have faced multiple crashes and losses etc etc. What is happening right now is what happens in life.

It is a rollercoaster ride with it's ups and downs.

Just reading that Citigroup declared positive returns since the start of 2009, well, it is good enough? Well:

"Knowledge is knowing the tomato is a fruit, wisdom is not putting it in your fruit salad"

We are constantly fed information, as investors in anything in life as you mentioned, it is knowing how to interpret information and to stay calm and avoid general panic.

Life is well if we choose it to be so.

[fat.tail.event]

Back to the C question...I think the $1 mark is just psychologically appealing number that we as consumers correlate with value. It does not mean there is value. In fact, how do you arrive at such an investment decision?...I mean a disciplined one. The biggest mistake WFC made was buying WB before they went bankrupt. JPM bot WaMu the right way...they did it when it was in receivership/liquidation. Same with Barclay's and Lehman. Barclay's was in the deal room, but just waited it out until bankruptcy and started picking what they wanted for pennies on the dollar. If/when C goes down, it will be the same way. Who wants C's paper assets and people (the things wiped out in bankruptcy)? The real value is its infrastructure, locations, brand, global reach. C was a great break up scenario before this all started, and still is.

We are a scapegoat culuture as much as we are an entitlement culture. Why do yout think every financial journalist keeps asking the question about who is responsible for this? Give me one guy and an easy answer. Thats all I have time for. Greenspan lost as those brackets were narrowed down to one. But he was just one of many people and things that got us here. People ask me to explain the answer to that question and I tell them I need a minimum of one hour if they want to gain true understanding. Politicians, policymakers, laws, private sector, globalisation, governmental agencies, citizens...the list goes on. But we dont have time for that anymore. We need to hear an succinct answer by the 7th minute before the BlackBerry vibrates and its off to the next concern. So naturally we gravitate towards the great financial storytellers...the guys who can encapsulate this situation into a 3 minute, simplistic narrative filled with catchy soundbites. End of that rant.

Notice how Congress isnt conveneing a 'commission' to look into the Great Recession? We have a commission for everything else, but not for our current situation. There never will be a post action review. Its because too many answers would come back highlighting the inefficiencies and failures among their own. They will ensure private goes down before public.

This is why you stay away from companies like C for the moment. They have been quarantined and we still dont have a major bank's head on a stick.

[Guest asim]

Back to the C question...I think the $1 mark is just psychologically appealing number that we as consumers correlate with value. It does not mean there is value. In fact, how do you arrive at such an investment decision?...I mean a disciplined one. The biggest mistake WFC made was buying WB before they went bankrupt. JPM bot WaMu the right way...they did it when it was in receivership/liquidation. Same with Barclay's and Lehman. Barclay's was in the deal room, but just waited it out until bankruptcy and started picking what they wanted for pennies on the dollar. If/when C goes down, it will be the same way. Who wants C's paper assets and people (the things wiped out in bankruptcy)? The real value is its infrastructure, locations, brand, global reach. C was a great break up scenario before this all started, and still is.

We are a scapegoat culuture as much as we are an entitlement culture. Why do yout think every financial journalist keeps asking the question about who is responsible for this? Give me one guy and an easy answer. Thats all I have time for. Greenspan lost as those brackets were narrowed down to one. But he was just one of many people and things that got us here. People ask me to explain the answer to that question and I tell them I need a minimum of one hour if they want to gain true understanding. Politicians, policymakers, laws, private sector, globalisation, governmental agencies, citizens...the list goes on. But we dont have time for that anymore. We need to hear an succinct answer by the 7th minute before the BlackBerry vibrates and its off to the next concern. So naturally we gravitate towards the great financial storytellers...the guys who can encapsulate this situation into a 3 minute, simplistic narrative filled with catchy soundbites. End of that rant.

Notice how Congress isnt conveneing a 'commission' to look into the Great Recession? We have a commission for everything else, but not for our current situation. There never will be a post action review. Its because too many answers would come back highlighting the inefficiencies and failures among their own. They will ensure private goes down before public.

This is why you stay away from companies like C for the moment. They have been quarantined and we still dont have a major bank's head on a stick.

That's very true.

I think it has been mentioned a few times that C gets a grade "F" in considering stocks. The financial market has a myriad of issues which, although attempted, cannot be summed up by media heads in couple of minutes. Financials is such a volatile place to speculate in, it is best to stay a few feet away and see what happens. Who the heck knows what will happen or what else we will find out?

Economics is not a single entity but married to, as mentioned, so many other factors and influences that nobody can carry definitive answers. Only good answers. And good is good, but never good enough. That's the beauty, we never know what is around the corner. Neither does C or what can happen to Citi.

There is value to C somewhere, that's the only thing that interests me. Their property and location is sound. Whether I would invest? I don't know, depends.

[Shundi]

I agree that C is not where most people wanna be right now...I'm currently up about 36% on it and will be playing the short term on it... not planning on holding it for too long...some people are of the opinion that it could hit $5 by the year's end but I'll play it somewhat more conservatively and just eat the capital gains tax...

[Pugwash]

Remember, kids, shares can always drop another 95%.

[RobbieG]

Again FT and Robbie, thank you for the time and insights. Both are valuable commodities (pun intended) to the civilians here who may be grasping at straws, bits of intel, that can give us a better hand hold of a bigger picture. You need a 'destination' before you can formulate a 'plan' for getting there. I'm trying to draw a map. My adminstrative contacts that hold my investments do observe a good fiduciary responsibility, I would hope, and in spite of the current situation, I am pleased, with every issuance of reviews of assets, I remark; "Wow, it doesn't look as bad on paper as the media would have you believe." However, I realize those officers are under corporate mandate as to what they will or will not divulge as a point of 'policy'. They are upbeat, confident and maintain they have faith in 'strategy'. I understand that position as a point of doing good business. I just don't know, now, how realistic that position is. I do empathize tho'. I wonder how many people I could have talked into a discovery flight lesson if I wore this T-Shirt to our first encounter;

"Aviation in itself is not inherently

dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly

unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect."

Sterling words for the prospective 'Solo Pilot' about to take on that responsibility, but perhaps too foreboding to the neophyte.

Certainly you can glean countless websites for opinion and information on the current finacial, but, as I have found countless times on RWG (incarnations past and present) when the focus of the main board is something that has international appeal and is well aside other world issues. aside; 'watches' you get an uncanny objective opinion on a myraid of topics. There may be agendas here for 'who's the best dealer' or 'who has the best Sub', but outside that box, people may as well speak their minds, and voice contrary opinions to the mainstream. Why not? There is no penalty for doing so. It's why I love RWG and am stuck on it. I do love Rolex, and my replicas, but aside the "Rolex" subforum and here "Off Topic" I have very little practical use of the resource. The enthusiasm of the multicultural demograph is priceless.

In the words of those two bards; 'KenMc' and 'Two Tone', respectively;

"Replica watches = meh"

"Where people gather, life happens"

True. True.

Well said Demsey. What you speak of is very true. RWG is a special place for knowledge. There has not been one day that I haven't learned something here from the first day I wandered over from TRC in our alpha year as mostly a lurker and occasional pictorial poster. And that incredible wealth of knowledge is what keeps me coming back. You may have noticed, but I am really into the process of discovery. It fills my business and personal life as my number one pursuit. I don't know what I'm looking for and as such I hope I never find it. The journey is the destination as they say...

[Shundi]

Remember, kids, shares can always drop another 95%.

Indeed and as others have said: with Citi they probably will (and should).

[RobbieG]

...and the OP is bummed if he didn't get long as C gets a 38% pop today. Also FYI, I heard from the inside that Washington has no itention of letting any of the top 25 financials fail going forward, no matter what it takes. And don't ask me what that cryptic little piece means as I have no idea either. Just a guy I know in government heard some musings from some back room conversations and told me that today...

[Demsey]

Well, after a close like today (C up 38+%), all I can do is quote the New World Man;

Shorting CTB has been blissful.

lol, what a lark." 'Citigroup' has posted positive returns for the first two months of '09." They borrow money from the tax payers @ 0%, and loan it out for considerably more and turn a profit. Wow. The intricate world of high finance.............

But, that news today, the revisiting of the up-tick rule, and then too a discussion on the Hill Thursday with the Fed, focus; 'mark-to-market' and a possible Systemic Risk Oversight Committee and yesterday's Merck/Shering-Plough merge (in a stable 2007 market that would have been it's own 200pnt rally) are the psychological events the bulls have been waiting for. I'll take it. Only if it is merely a week long 'Running with the Bulls' a' la Pamplona. Someone will get the horns, some will have stories to tell over wine.

If the adminstration would just open a dialogue, even a non-committal, regarding capital gains and corporate tax for the short term, for the purpose of recession reversal before spending ad hoc on the new socialist agenda? The current environment would stabilize. The Senate is looking at the Budget and Stimulus Bill like they are an open window in the pneumonia ward. And the Dems own all three Houses. I think President Obama would do better for his vision tending house a little better.

I dunno, I always thought DOW 14,000 was ridiculous. Made for some nice daydreaming looking at the paper, but c'mon. This 50% fall is, in my mind, a 25% fall from where the DOW should have been. Gimme back 11,500 and I will consider all this a Dicken's nightmare; undigested beef and good lessons learned.

Fascinating......................

[RobbieG]

I just hope they keep moving - hopefully up in the interest of a good world to live in, but my trading doesn't care per se if motion is up or down. But needless to say we killed it today, mostly this morning through lunch.

[fat.tail.event]

Our lobbyists were in town about a week and a half ago and said they are getting similar intel from the Obama, Geithner and Bernanke people they talk to. The most disheartening conclusion our guys had was the continued perception of lack of coordination and understanding amongst govt officials. These guys deal with the Obama teams on a daily/weekly basis and I got zero sense of comfort coming across in their messages and anecdotes. Quite scary.

More specific to your rumor, they also said that this 'stress test' would likely not result in any institution not making the cut. Rather the 'stress test' is simply the formation of a well-articulated template as to who receives govt funds going forward. One of the mistakes that this administration did not want to deal with was the question 'where'd all the money go?' Now they will have a researched govt form that says how much and why. All that aside, the PR machine surrounding this so called 'stress test' has been rather poorly implemented. If their goal was simply information gathering, it sure has added a whole lot of a addtional uncertainty into the marketplace...at the cost of another 20% down leg and a few more 'end of the world' magazine covers.

...and the OP is bummed if he didn't get long as C gets a 38% pop today. Also FYI, I heard from the inside that Washington has no itention of letting any of the top 25 financials fail going forward, no matter what it takes. And don't ask me what that cryptic little piece means as I have no idea either. Just a guy I know in government heard some musings from some back room conversations and told me that today...

[fakemaster]

This is another thread that must not die.

[Shundi]

These guys deal with the Obama teams on a daily/weekly basis and I got zero sense of comfort coming across in their messages and anecdotes. Quite scary.

Time to start making a new round of "Don't blame me I voted for _____" stickers