fat.tail.event

Set a saved search on the Bay for your Allen Edmonds size and you will probably be able to pick up a pair of lightly used, but great condition shoes for $25-$50. Most of these I can wear for a year or two without any repair. If you are really picky about having 'new' shoes AE offers a top to bottom recrafting service for $95 and you can immediately send them off to Wisconsin to be remade (the restoration is about 98% imho--inner leather shoe lining is tough to fix without deconstructing and rebuilding the entire shoe). With a little effort and good timing you have brand new, $350 shoes for $125. For me, AE is the only 'old world', able to be cobbled, type of shoe that can be stylish and classic at the same time. I value their salespeople too, they know what they are talking about, whether its your feet, or their shoes.

Robbie, its awful to hear about this insidious 'unknown'. If you are ever in Chicago at Northwestern, U of Chicago, Rush, etc., let me know and we will help out however we can. Physical stuff aside, your attitude and emotions are clearly IN TACT. At this point, I pray you do all you can to remain in these spirits, no matter what this thing throws at you. Mental clarity/comfort leads and the body follows in these situations, I feel.

The bond party idea sounds extremely cool. This idea will be on the brain for some time and I foresee my group of friends having drinks and 'solving problems' on getting it going. Anyhow did your friends just try to trick everyone into the 'black tie' to increase participation in the wedding dress code?

I have only briefly heard about the master cleanse diet, but have a hard time with the 'salt water flushes'. Knowing what salt water does to the human body, there is no way I would go along with ingesting it voluntarily. I am not against cleanses, however. My wife and I discovered a program called Colonix and we do it once a year for a month. Its basically a fiber and herbal program...no major alterations to your diet. As far as I know, it hasnt been 'peer reviewed' in a medical journal, but go read the testimonials on it and you will be floored. The passages are quite disgusting, in fact, and make for an interesting read. I didnt see parasites and other living intestinal organisms coming out of me (a lot of users do), but there was a lot of 'garbage' coming out that doesnt regularly make its way down the pipes. Some people even see other health and medical issues improve, lots of instances of skin and gastro problems going away. Anyhow, I highly recommend it if you feel like you need to regulate your stomach, colon, core area etc.

In the states, I buy all of my custom clothes from Joe Hemrajani at www.mytailor.com He comes to Chicago about 4-5 times per year and has provided me service that goes above and beyond. However, if you are looking to do a wardrobe rebuild, or just adding a lot of things (lets say a weeks worth of professional items), it probably makes sense to book a flight to Thailand. I have been amazed by the quality, prices, etc. all built around a pretty cheap vacation.

It seems to claim those with multiple, coexisting conditions. Kind of like of like typical flu strains. What number of deaths are attributed each year, globally, due to flu? Do a little search for a good laugh vs. 'swine' flu. Scary name for a virus though. Still havent a seen a bloody pigs head on a stick on the nightly news, but we'll get there.

The pertinent, logical advice has already been dispensed above. So I will latch on and say....yes, the b*tches are crazy

Sorry to hear this news, but glad you are looking at this with your priorities in line...enjoy a bit of time off. I have been in Statistics 101 and Statistics 202 over this past year, but I am happy to report that things turned out even better for me. I certainly dont mean to belittle anyones circumstances if they are poor at the moment, but I just dont think things are as bad as CNN and Co. say they are. All the best.

It probably goes without saying, but the suburb where this house is located is really nice as well...all the homes are beautiful. If you have the means I highly recommend picking one up.... ha ha ha...get it?

An extremely live debate this question is...ultimately, how do you 'express' the trade. Expressing trades always has a multitude of answers and many can be right at the same time, some just more right...Right? And to boot, it will also come down to your views on timing. As I mentioned in a previous post above, the dollar is probably not going to outright collapse like a lot of the doomsayers lead us to believe. Personally, I feel this collapse will be slow motion, almost the same as a high inflation rate would bleed you for 3-5% per year. Take a look at USD charts over the past year or two and our argument here falls apart. Take a look at USD charts vs. 'the competition' currencies over this past decade and it all starts to make sense. What I am saying is that there is no magic bullet or quick buck trade for something that is so thematic in nature. So no more framing, disclaimers etc...quick answers to start your brainstorming...how about?... foreign bonds from commodity producing nations that run current account surpluses (obviously dont hedge your currency exposure) long term foreign currency options...buy some cheap out of the money and pick up new contracts as they come available...throw some pennies at it for dollars in a couple years. buy land...could be domestic, maybe some foreign...I would love a Brazilian agricultural land fund, for example one portofolio manager by us keeps harping on the jewels, rare stones....maybe a good alternative to gold/silver I think you hit the general strategies well Chief...The one thing most investors in 401k land probably dont realize, or dont do, is having large percentage of holdings in foreign equities in general...probably need 50% or so.

Interesting you bring up Fascism. I have wrestled with this simplistic view of 'socialism' constantly being thrown about these days. The Obama central planning organization is acting in a very fascist manner, according to what I was taught in school. They are looking at corporate America, businesses, sectors, etc. and doing everything they can to get all of the oars rowing at the same time, rhythm in order to repair industries and restore growth. That my friends is corporatism and it is a main tenet of fascism. Whether or not we drop the corporatist stance and migrate to more socialistic tenedencies remains to be seen. But the only actionable stuff I see right now is corporatism, the rest has been rhetoric. Another note...Moody's chopped Japan's rating to Aa2 the other day and the yen got punched in the neck repeatedly all day. Many say we are headed down the same road as Japan (lost decade)...but keep one thing in mind, Japan was running SURPLUSES, not defecits. So if that argument holds water (I am not sure yet), we start our decline in a bad position. I really feel Moodys is posturing and setting an administrative precedent about what's to come with the US. A US debt/currency downgrade will be one of the things to set this process in motion.

As a portfolio manager/trader this truly is the one issue that keeps me up at night, or I catch my mind drifting and drilling down deeper into the problem. More and more the Fed is becoming this country's off balance sheet vehicle because of its sheer size, and thus financial power, coupled with the fact that there is minimal oversight of its activities. At the end of the day, the Fed is becoming the last mechanism we have as a country to compensate for our massive trade imbalances which have spun out of control. I realize we have spent many an hour posting on this board on the imminent collapse of the dollar due to these circumstances. Bear in mind imminent could be 2010, or 2020 if you are looking at it in the relation of long-term history. Trading, investing and, unfortunately living, through this decline/collapse is going to be the largest single economic event of the 21st century. Large fortunes will be made and lost surrounding this event. If it happens rapidly and you are on the wrong side of the trade, it will be quite painful. There is also a suckers element to watch out for here. I would strongly advise to resist reorienting a portfolio or trade to compensate for long term deflation, even if it persists for 1-3 yrs or so. Many strategists will disagree with me at this point, but I think any deflation will be short lived, or even an indicator of coming hyperinflation. The next couple decades will be about managing your funds in the context of inflation...period. Bear in mind that the reported statistics on inflation, GDP, employment etc. have been and will be continued to be manipulated for political use. Pre Clinton govt calculations for the Consumer Price Index right now would read about +2%, whereas the govt is reporting it at -0.5%. Many people are going to feel 'boxed in' as prices rise, the dollar declines, investment returns revert to means, taxes go up, leverage goes down. At the same time, more and more responsiblity is being shifted to individuals, families to manage around these headwinds (a big reason why I think big government will become so popular....no one wants or has time for such 'inconveniences' these days) A pretty painful confluence of economic events on the horizon...wouldnt you say?

If we began to educate US citizens that the Federal Reserve system in our country is similar to the US Dollar equivalent to OPEC and crude oil, maybe some people would begin to realize the severe consequences of the system we decided to implement in 1913. Put simply, each regional Fed bank is like a member of OPEC with Bernanke and the FOMC being the 'Saudi Arabia' of the group. I ask any voter in our country...is this how you want YOUR money supply managed (manipulated)? We sit in front of televisions like crack addicts awaiting Fed interest rate decisions. And when the Inspector General is asked about inquiries into their decision making process all we get is "We do not have the authority to conduct audits on Federal Reserve banks" There is a bill in congress gaining a lot of steam, as people are becoming fed up (pun intended). I strongly urge you to read up on H.R. 1207 - The Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 - and contact your congresspeople to support if you agree.

Well Nanuq the cold weather sailing (my version of cold at least) begins for me this Saturday morning. It looks like it will be low 40s with moderate breeze when we get out on the water at 7am. There arent that many boats in the water in the Chicago harbors at this time of year, but our family's lease share yacht is one of the lonely ones moored out there now. On Saturday I head out for a little sailing competency test to show that I can single and/or doublehand one of these cruisers. Next weekend I jump on the yacht in my pic to do the 'river trip' that a lot of folks do around here. A couple of the major yacht yards in Chicago are located on the south branch of the Chicago River. A group of about 20-30 yachts assemble in the morning (well provisioned with beer and donuts) and the flotilla moves together as all of the bridges go up and down in the city (good show for the tourists) until we get to the lock that lets us out on to Lake Michigan.

I feel most strongly about the 'strap making the watch' opinion when it comes to PAM 183s. Very accurate reps, but when you add OEM croc or something comparable in quality...you just stepped up the game significantly. Sure, changing straps can alter the image, or the vibe the watch gives off....but thats my example of a strap truly 'making' a time piece.

My wife and I are having a similar discussion on whether or not to keep the dinghy so that I can teach our future young ones on it. Thats a few years out though. We are crazy water people, even our puppy was on the wave runner with us at 6 months old trying to bite the spray. nanuq- I cant imagine doing an entire race series in anything below freezing. one or two days a year I am out when its that cold, and with rough seas in that weather, it makes for that much more of an exhausting day. Fxr - my wife and I chartered a captained yacht for our honeymoon down in the VIs/BVIs and the couple were German with extensive sailing experience in Denmark. After spending the week with them, I wonder why Denmark doesnt get more acclaim and recommendatons for sailing vacations. It sounds like great conditions and lots of interesting ports.

Us Chicago folks only have a few good months of weather, so we have to hit it hard out on Lake Michigan. Feels great to be out in the boat yard these past couple of weekends, putting the sweat equity in for the pre season. I havent been foolish enough to buy my own yacht yet...own a 2 man olympic racer though. I started racing on a dinghy in college. For the past 8 years I have been racing on some of the bigger boats here. This season my father in law and I are doing a lease share on a cruiser, so it will be nice to relax a bit more on the water, get the family and friends out to share the passion. I will be skipper and instructor on this boat...hope everyone still likes me come October, lol Just wondering who else is out there to share some tales....

So I have the movie Red Dawn shipping out on from netflix today. There are very polarized reviews of the movie on there...people rating the movie/acting - 1/2 stars...people rating the story, conflict, patriotic aspetcts - 4/5 stars. (For those of you who dont know the background on the flick...its 1980s America, the Russians and Cubans launch a joint attack on US soil, a group of high schoolers watch as an air/ground invasion takes root in their rural town, they team up and begin a guerrilla campaign against the Reds) It really begs the question, under what conditions would you truly feel compelled to band together and fight for your country? I consider myself a very patriotic, constitutionalist citizen. Spent two years as a Midshipman before I decided the Navy wasnt for me and flirted with the public sector, almost joining CIA as an analyst before determining that finance was my ticket. I fundamentally disagree with much of US military policies, mainly our deployments overseas. The current conflicts and Wars on ____ do not motivate me or stoke my patriotism whatsoever. But if something were to go down like shown in the movie, I would be happy to employ my 30 odd six, hunting shotguns etc. for purposes other than recreation. If our Constitution were truly in jeopardy, figuratively, I would be in.

Happy belated. There's always a great celebration when gin is close at hand!

Our lobbyists were in town about a week and a half ago and said they are getting similar intel from the Obama, Geithner and Bernanke people they talk to. The most disheartening conclusion our guys had was the continued perception of lack of coordination and understanding amongst govt officials. These guys deal with the Obama teams on a daily/weekly basis and I got zero sense of comfort coming across in their messages and anecdotes. Quite scary. More specific to your rumor, they also said that this 'stress test' would likely not result in any institution not making the cut. Rather the 'stress test' is simply the formation of a well-articulated template as to who receives govt funds going forward. One of the mistakes that this administration did not want to deal with was the question 'where'd all the money go?' Now they will have a researched govt form that says how much and why. All that aside, the PR machine surrounding this so called 'stress test' has been rather poorly implemented. If their goal was simply information gathering, it sure has added a whole lot of a addtional uncertainty into the marketplace...at the cost of another 20% down leg and a few more 'end of the world' magazine covers.

Back to the C question...I think the $1 mark is just psychologically appealing number that we as consumers correlate with value. It does not mean there is value. In fact, how do you arrive at such an investment decision?...I mean a disciplined one. The biggest mistake WFC made was buying WB before they went bankrupt. JPM bot WaMu the right way...they did it when it was in receivership/liquidation. Same with Barclay's and Lehman. Barclay's was in the deal room, but just waited it out until bankruptcy and started picking what they wanted for pennies on the dollar. If/when C goes down, it will be the same way. Who wants C's paper assets and people (the things wiped out in bankruptcy)? The real value is its infrastructure, locations, brand, global reach. C was a great break up scenario before this all started, and still is. We are a scapegoat culuture as much as we are an entitlement culture. Why do yout think every financial journalist keeps asking the question about who is responsible for this? Give me one guy and an easy answer. Thats all I have time for. Greenspan lost as those brackets were narrowed down to one. But he was just one of many people and things that got us here. People ask me to explain the answer to that question and I tell them I need a minimum of one hour if they want to gain true understanding. Politicians, policymakers, laws, private sector, globalisation, governmental agencies, citizens...the list goes on. But we dont have time for that anymore. We need to hear an succinct answer by the 7th minute before the BlackBerry vibrates and its off to the next concern. So naturally we gravitate towards the great financial storytellers...the guys who can encapsulate this situation into a 3 minute, simplistic narrative filled with catchy soundbites. End of that rant. Notice how Congress isnt conveneing a 'commission' to look into the Great Recession? We have a commission for everything else, but not for our current situation. There never will be a post action review. Its because too many answers would come back highlighting the inefficiencies and failures among their own. They will ensure private goes down before public. This is why you stay away from companies like C for the moment. They have been quarantined and we still dont have a major bank's head on a stick.

As a former physics geek, I totally relate to your aviation analogy. You are dead on. 2008 was the year you deleted 'impossible' from the finance dictionary. During Sept, Oct and Nov last year the 'constants' that existed within financial formulas blew up with the rest of the market. The Gaussian copula formulae and their derviatives that are the pricing backbone of so many of these asset/mortgage backed securities that continue to plague us went from severely broken set of numbers to a scrap heap of them. I would ask you to consider some other thoughts relating to the statements below... Following playbooks to the letter has not and will not work in this scenario. But our team has found some valuable ones that werent even picked up, ignored...and we have profited considerably from their lack of attention. Speculation is all there is left if you base your investment decisions on fundamental data. There are no fundamentals in the equity markets right now. The stock market as a forward pricing mechanism has shut down. But technical analysis and indicators have been excellent tools. They have framed entry and exit points for our trades quite well. We are not horrified, but unbelievably fatigued from screen time staring at monitors and going through multi thousand line excel spreadsheets trying to keep up with this, as you said. Correction...we were horrified on Sept 18/19 when Bank of New York or State Street (still not sure which one) called up the Fed and said they couldnt meet money market redemption requests. If that $150B didnt go out as quick as it did, the world may have ended as we know it.

FDIC just asked Treasury for another line of $500B. Sounds like they are going to do a big deal. So far, Obama's War on Reality has foolishly been dominated by gauging 'confidence' in the system. Psychologically, at $1 C seems expendable. Opinion is slowly shifting from 'no more Lehmans' to 'can we afford another AIG'. Trader talk says BAC or C go down by May/June. The mob is tired of seeing good money go after bad, and policy makers are responding increasingly with talk about another sacrifice on the market altar to appease them. If GM goes into bankruptcy or some type of structured work out, it will show the public just how efficient that process is, and it may pave the road for more. The Lehman dispostion was a thing of beauty, but everyone was just too focused on markets collapsing. Investors have become apathetic and more apt to swifter action it seems. The IMF playbook when dealing with disasters of this magnitude says: 1) Respond with overwhelming force ($$$) to assert undoubted control over the situation. (cant check that box, we dont have enough cash to replace the $20T in losses we've experienced) 2) Punish and remove the parties at the top responisible for the mess. Wipe out shareholders and certain bondholders to address moral hazard. (cant check that box, so far....but C might be a good start) 3) If the combo of 1 and 2 do not restore order, respond with more and start devaluing the currency ASAP (the US is doing this, but the effects are being offset because the rest of the world is in the toilet at the same time we are) Dont kid yourself about USD strength right now. Its just the one eyed guy in a room full of blind men.

Your paper's editors failed to make the following revisions... "In the fourth quarter alone, YOU extended more than $115 billion in new credit. WE THE PEOPLE began a 10-year, $1.5 trillion investment in low-to-moderate income and minority communities--the largest initiative of its kind in America. THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST has been reduced by $20 billion to implement environmental initiatives and encourage sustainable business practices over the next decade."

Yes We Can...what fools subscribe to this "Yes We Can" has been masquerading as "YES I CAN" since the phrase was coined. Pure narcissism I tell you, and you got to witness the human embodiement of such narcissism at the highest level of government during the Faux State of the Union...thats right, Nacy Pelosi. She had no problem disgracing the office of the President just so she could pat herself on the back for all the Treasury bonds she'll be responsible for issuing.