fat.tail.event

There is a very wide spectrum for me on this...my parents have various clocks, multiple ones per room, so I see them from a decorative angle. Watches are a personal expression, like many other things. The engineering and adancement of time keeping devices is fascinating. So you have that philosophical marriage/balance of art and science, history etc. And the physics student in me always contemplates the variable of time, its possible manipulation (like the bending of light).

Slay, I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I am tired of this polarized way of looking at the US and its issues. Its either do nothing (fat and happy solution) or disasterize the situation to the point where we are paralyzed into doing nothing. Sadly, I agree with your possible default and BTW there would be a subsequent currency devaluation situation. It may be a rip the band aid solution. It scares my wife, but there is money off shore and a second family citizenship purchased. This is just a sunny beach back up plan for us, but I am not going to suffer through the experiment if it kicks into gear.

US Balance sheet--- Assets: $1.7 Trillion (and going down) Debts: Current outstanding Treasury obligations: 10.8 Trillion (this is the figure talked about on the news) Medicare obligations through about 2040 if everything stays constant in today's dollars: $87 Trillion* Social Security obligations through about 2040 if everything stays constant in today's dollars: $13 Trillion* *Source: Dallas Fed We havent really even begun to bring these off balance sheet vehicles (Medicare and SS Trusts) on to the real balance sheet yet. Interestingly, the first baby boomer retirement benefits just started going out this year, so these Medicare and SS debts will ramp up quite quickly over the next two decades. The reason you started to hear warnings about national debt 30-40 yrs ago is because thats when the US stopped backing its currency with hard assets (1971). Our Fathers warned us of having a 'paper' money system, especially Thomas Jefferson. Hold a USD in your hand and ask yourself what you are really holding. You are holding a trusted certificate from the United States to tax its citizens, pay the interest on its debt and ULTIMATELY PAY THE PRINCIPAL BACK ON THAT DEBT. This implied guarnatee gives stability to that note to maintain its value. When global central bankers start to realize that our taxation equation (population base, their earnings potential (taxes), our sizeable debt and perpetual compounding interest payments) even offers the slightest DOUBT on the possibility of US repayment of principal...trust will begin to evaporate. If you think this is a joke, be aware that central bankers have already begun expressing this concern to our president and other high level officials at the Treasury and Fed. JohnG...The United States has bought itself out of every major issue and promised its citizens and others' A LOT. We print money, issue more and more debt and line up like crack addicts when the Fed cuts interest rates (manipulates money supply) As you can see above. I ask you: Do you think that balance sheet above is healthy? Would you invest in a company with those financials? And most importantly, would you leave a house of affairs like that to your child or grandchild? I would not. So I will continue to fight for higher standards, not just put it off another 15-20 yrs.

I will be doing the most patriotic thing I can think of tomorrow. I will be writing in Dr. Ron Paul. He is the only person who will look you in the eye and tell you how utterly F'd this country is if we dont make VERY painful CHANGE soon. Notice how neither of the big guys up for election tomorrow will even touch the issue of national debt. Begin rant: The US only has about 15-25 more years before it is effectively bankrupt. In the near future all of the taxes you pay to the govt. will go to paying interest on debt. If you think a credit crisis concentrated on retail banks and investment banks has been bad, how do you think we (and the world for that matter) will fare when the real BIG one hits The US Treasury, IRS, Federal Reserve, etc? By the way, there will be at least one major, possibly more financial crises before this ultimate biggy hits. (stepping down from soapbox) Please get out and vote.

Some flaws... The thickness of the lume markings, generally too thin, but I am seen some overly fat ones Crownguard offered by most dealers is incorrect...I think Angus had the closest one based on his pics posted, but cant be 100% sure thats what you'll get in the mail. Take a look at the gen CG and you'll notice the difference where the CG hits the case/pushers. Subdial sizing is incorrect The crystal, as mentioned I think the dial is up to a v2 or v3...I havent followed all of the updates, so a search on that should clarify...recall seeing something about the fonts in the subdials. Nonetheless, I love my 253. This is my sailing watch (competitive big boat yacht racing) so this thing has taken a beating over the past couple years. Its been an 'I dont care what happens to this thing' watch and passed with flying colors. Direct hits to the crystal, no problem. Scratches have come out easily with a refinishing pen.

I have never even considered a brass buckle on a strap, but after seeing that picture I cant stop thinking about how especially sharp that would look with the hands of a Fiddy. Does anyone offer a screw in Pre-V buckle like that? Forgot to thank flyback...thanks for posting those pics, yet another thing to add to the list...

From one PAM lover to another--I can tell you're eventually going to have both...so the better question is which do you want first? So you get the first one on the 25th...then return all the sweatwers and knick knacks you dont want/need the following week...and then you'll have your DSN,Josh order on your doorstep by the second week of January. Problem solved.

Good post Ethan...great story on a Friday afternoon. It hangs a little bit longer when you're wearing a PAM, doesnt it?

For the price they have them listed on the bay, I would have to think they are CN back alley specials.

I heard it was sold out a while ago, but are ADs ending up with stock? Its a fantastic watch and someone started a thread inquiring about rep interest...on that I am certainly IN for a rep. But IMHO the gen price for what you get is beyond silly. I really think Richemont just saw the A/Bs trading at absurd values and capitalized on the fever...destined to become a auction/flipper timepiece.

We work from the same playbook my friend...almost down to the word.

I haven't seen the threads/thoughts on this, but would agree with the YM assumption for Charlie. Actually, I do wonder about Alan's every single time I watch the show. Its almost as if his watch looks 'nice' enough that you want to say its something worth noting like we do on the boards, but its just too non-descript to make a close call. I guess I always end up assuming its along the lines of an IWC, Chopard...but could really be an Oris, even a simple Timex.

Thanks for the pic timepiece...you are fueling my fire...just starting my research on building a modded 232. Which dealer did you use?

I agree with many of the high level themes being communicated here...have a plan and stick to it, protect yourself when you buy a position (stops or hedges). I think it would have been helpful to also include position sizing insight, meaning never over commit capital to one idea/trade and avoid concentration in correlated assets. But there is one theme throughout that leans towards quantification of odds in global markets, using the casino and card counting examples, that needs more reinforcement. Robbie mentions randomness and black swans, these are important...I will get to this in a second. Our team spends hours a week examining "fat tail events" (low probability, but highly devastating) with our traders/portfolio managers. MY WORD OF CAUTION: If you run a model or system or plan etc., sit down every single day and question its validity and ability to handle major shocks. Here's the problem... When you step up to a table to play a casino game you know your odds. If astute enough, you can chart the probability of outcomes at some tables over time. Put simply, the table and deck you choose is a contained system that is not susceptible to outside influences. Global markets are the exact opposite. There are infinite variables for which to account and no model/system will ever be able to. A lot of Nobel prize winning professionals even fail to take notice of this. They develop models to explain the world using "bell curve" scenarios; it allows them to quantify odds of something happening. These models work most of the time and their operators eventually become married to those ideas after seeing repeated successes in predicting/explaining events. But when events occur outside of 'normal distribution' odds (the one in 10 million event) they become momentarily confused before saying...this cant happen twice, or three times in such a short span of time...so they risk more and more capital (remember they are married to the system). You just read the heart and start of almost every spectacular hedge fund blow up. Folks, this is why these "once in a hundred years" financial crises occur every 5-7 years now. The "once in a hundred years" part comes from some economist's academic paper that uses a flawed model like the above and the world event at hand doesnt quite fit into the research. Its like sitting down at the blackjack table and getting 6 aces dealt to you in a row. Impossible in a contained environment, but we dont live in one. Someone asked where they can learn more about trading. Start with a book like Trading for a Living by Dr. Alexander Elder. Its not about making a business out of it, but rather a comprehensive introduction into every area of money management. Anyone with an IRA, 401K should read a book like this at some point. The black swan reference comes from Nassim Taleb. Read his books Fooled by Randomness or Black Swan. I guarantee you that you will look at the world and so called experts a lot differently.

I would be in for a Chicago GTG....PM any details please. I am on the north side.

Thanks for posting that Mahler. I found it very interesting. Which Rolex did he examine?

I think its interesting that they start off with the VC and then throw up a pic of the new, monster PAM depth gauge....kind of a disconnect for me on that. On another note...are F.P. Journe's another timepiece in the 'too difficult to rep' category? I am always so impressed with his work, and then two or three thoughts later I find myself thinking...way too complicated, ornate to start mass manufacturing in China. Thoughts?

The last album I bought on iTunes was the most recent Slightly Stoopid release. I probably put this in the 16-24 yr. old age category (I am 32), but there are some laid back tracks worth picking up. Its NeoSoCalStonerSurfPunk greatness. The one band I find myself always recommending (if you like Black Crowes, Big Head Todd genre) is The Freddy Jones Band.

Each of us probably has an off-the-beaten-path favorite that is worth noting. Or maybe an old flick that hasn't gotten enough attention lately. Since RWG has users from all over, I will throw out a foreign film that really really impressed me. It is called Elling...was nominated for an Academy Award in 2001...about two mentally challenged roomates who move out of the hospital together and help one another through life, daily trials.

This "crisis" (this is simply what happens in the form of capitalism We The People choose to practice) was front and center a little bit earlier for our household. Unfortunately, I work for the first investment bank that went down earlier in the year. Are we crying and unprepared like these folks?.... http://cat5.org/pages/banker-wives.html ....No. I remind my wife regularly that we have to be prepared to walk away from luxuries at any moment. Man performs best when adversities are present. Maybe my family doesnt realize it, but I purposely introduce them. I work in a boom and bust industry that follows our roller coaster economic cycles. I fully accept and embrace that risk/reward environment...it is the path I have chosen. There are no more victims in this current situation than there were at any other time during the last 25 yrs. The media just needs something to fill the 24 hr. news channel air time. There is a lot of blame going up and down the pyramid. Just another way to avoid personal responsibility and accountability. Did the Maestro Greenspan keep rates too low too long...yes. Did scumbag mortgage brokers sell product that they knew would blow up families after 24 months...yes. But the bottom is this: very few of us examine, or even think about future consequences of our actions. It is human nature to keep more for yourself. God bless those who consciously struggle to suppress this trait on a daily basis; however, there are very few people who practice this habit. We have conditioned ourselves to think about whats best for us tomorrow, end of month/quarter/year. Capitalism has taught us to fully optimize, maximize, become most efficient...essentially run full tilt with no slack in the system. And just when some slack is needed to absorb a shock, you're wound as tight as can be. Our government, our businesses and our families all operate on this model. Am I advocating socialism? No. Capitalism works for the majority, most of the time. Its people that have focused on their various forms of 'slack'...future, family, friends, foundations...they will be fine. So has this 'crisis' inconvenienced me? Probably. But if these things (they happen every 5-7 yrs now, you know) ever begin to truly affect me, I know it will be time to go back to the drawing board.

Much obliged, thanks

I bought my DSN 104 I believe back around March after the first round of upgrade he did. I am not that knowledgable on the 7750 movement, but it seems the rotor went bad? It sounds as if there is a ball rolling/banging around inside the case. What do you think the watch doctor will say and bill me (if repair is even an option)?

There's been a lot of awful stories on Paneristi.com lately...seems like more scams occuring than normal. It makes you think that there are some nefarious lurkers there. And this guy was probably targeted IMHO. Gen PAM market has become like our US housing market over the past few years...huge buying interest, people going into the AD and cleaning them out to only resell....flippers showing up at auctions. So along with the mania, you're going to hear about these tragic stories, just comes with the territory, sadly

I work for an investment bank in Chicago and over the past 2-3 yrs. it seems like we were adding a PAM per month on the trading desk. When I go outside of work I struggle to see more than 1 every month or two. Then again, I dont mix in the trendy circles, big nightlife scenes etc...so I dont know if thats where most people are spotting them?? When I sit in a big hitter meeting there's clearly an inverse correlation between level of importance and Rollie wearing. The guy wearing the 'graduation present' is the guy trying to sell us something we dont need, or the guy being sold on something we dont want. Good topic...It was interesting to read the places and situations where PAMs are sighted....

Mostly a wearer....but there are some, both gen and rep, that dont get much attention and would never be sold.