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HauteHippie

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Everything posted by HauteHippie

  1. The wood is a nice touch. Now let's get some AR on that one... the difference is tremendous!
  2. The problem was in getting the old gasket out, and in fact I never could get it out. It was shoved so tightly between the rehaut ring and the bezel that it wasn't going anywhere. So, instead I decided to try pushing the new crystal into the old gasket. Well, this didn't quite work either.... part of the gasket sheered off and was visible under the crystal. But, the crystal was in there very securely. So, what I finally decided to do was remove the small parts of sheered gasket with a pair of tweezers, and viola! It worked out. Not a perfect solution, but about 95% of the gasket is still intact and I don't forsee any problems.... although there is a possibility that it isn't water tight, however I suspect it probably is. @TJ - thanks!!
  3. Thanks, Z. It actually *is* aligned even though the angle looks off in the head on pic. And thanks again to you for making this project a reality!
  4. Not sure what you mean by black line in the markers... The markers (roman numerals) are solid metal? But, yea, I would guess that the dial is of newer vintage than the case and not a perfect match in that respect.
  5. All - Thanks for the great commentary. I think it's a great all around watch... Classy and casual at the same time somehow. My bro doesn't like "big" watches, and isn't much of a watch nerd like me... So the Rolex Datejust is something he'll easily appreciate and hopefully wear on a daily basis. Robbie - I found a Rolex jeweler about a year ago that had numerous dials. He was actually a diamond guy who removed OEM dials and replaced them with custom diamond dials that he designed. So I had the pick of a many nice ones and narrowed it down to the navy blue with roman markers and this rhodium with roman markers.... In the end the rhodium won me over and I don't regret it one bit. Oh, and I still love that gen of yours!
  6. This one belongs to Deltatahoe, and is heading home to him tomorrow.... Took the opportunity to shoot a couple quick pics. You have to see this The Zigmeister lume job in person to believe it...
  7. Hehe. See post in Rolex forum.
  8. Finally finished this piece over the weekend. I've shown pics before, but now I've got the gen crystal in place (huge difference) which was a bit of a struggle. So, now, everything you see on the outside is genuine... On the inside is a 2892-A2. My brother will be coming in to town for Thanksgiving, and I'll present it to him at that time. He's walking in his Ph.D. ceremony in December, but since it's in the frigid midwest, I'll be missing it. The pics...
  9. Heh. I've heard this elsewhere, too... The idea Obama of inspiring confidence and optimism so that banks will start lending and people start spending again, in order to "energize" the economy. And it's just off the mark. In fact it's exactly the opposite of what we need... The crisis we're in is not a financial crisis; it's an economic crisis. And the fact is that we need more spending like we need a hole in the head. What we really need is to get rid of our artificially low interest rates in order to inspire SAVINGS and *less* spending. Borrowing to consume has got to stop, and if the new administration intends to further encourage it then they'll only be digging us deeper in to a hole out of which we'll never be able to crawl. I see there is already talk of a new stimulus plan - a sign that they'll be pursuing short term gratification. Lovely, but that would be a bubble gum patch in a leaking dam that is ready to burst and would solve nothing. The structure of the dam needs a complete re-engineering and overhaul.
  10. I think you've pretty much hit the root causes, and they can be summed up like this: government meddling. "Traders and trading" - not the ROOT cause. They were simply playing the hands they were dealt. Free markets have to be allowed to work for the most part, but in the cases, as I've said, where normal market feedback mechanisms don't work until there is a major disaster, then regulation is needed. Take the insurance industry as an example.... There is generally no way to know that an insurance company is solvent until a hurricane, earthquake or other natural disaster strikes and the insurers tell the insured "Sorry, but we don't have the capital to fund all these losses." Well at that point it's too late, and this analogy applies directly to the credit derivatives market as well. There was no way to know that these guys were frauds until a major market crash occurred. So, a lot more transparency is needed. As for "letting GM fail". Normally I'd go along with it, but not in this case. Government meddling is again the culprit here. The US auto industry has been crippled by draconian regulation through CAFE standards and the like - basically forced to produce autos that nobody in the country wants to buy. They are more successful overseas than domestically as a result. So if you're going to impose unreasonable regulations on companies that severely inhibit their profitability, and you're going to give bailouts to other entities whom you've forced in to bad business practices (banks), then it'd be utterly capricious and arbitrary to let one fail but not the other. Furthermore, they're being severely impacted by the credit crisis - also caused by government meddling - so it is a double whammy and they're the victims (for the most part). On the other hand, if government was not so overbearing with respect to private enterprise in the first place, then absolutely, when they fail, you let them fail.
  11. Right. I don't ever see it happening either, which is why I have the long term outlook that I do.
  12. The difference between us and most of the rest of the world is that we have a phony economy and they do not. They produce goods and loan us money so we can buy them. Our government prints money out of thin air to prop up asset prices and "create wealth". That's not real wealth, though. And it can not be sustained. The rest of the world will of course see a slowdown when the US stumbles because they're dependent upon us. But the point is that they don't have to be. Decoupling from the US would be painful for them in the short term, but their manufacturing capabilities, their economies based on production and savings, would get them through it and in the long run they'd be better off. They are already starting to learn that we can not pay back the loans. Did you see that the credit card bond market completely shut down on Wednesday? The rest of the world is catching on and doesn't want to touch that garbage anymore. I see a very subprime-like crash in the credit card market coming and surely the government will "rescue" that market as well. So like I said, the $700B bailout was just the tip of the iceberg. The solution? I only see one. The government must not meddle in this, and just allow a severe recession or even depression to happen. It's the nature of the business cycle. Boom and busts happen naturally. But instead, we're just going to inflate our way out of this yet again, and keep this phony economy running on life support. So there's really no hope for us to transition away from a service sector economy. But if we'd allow the bust that needs to happen, then we'd eventually be able to replace all the lost jobs in the service sector with new jobs in the manufacturing sector, which is exactly what we need to do. The fact is that we've allowed ourselves to go from being the world's largest creditor to its largest debtor. And I can't see any way possible that it won't catch up to us. The fundamentals always win.
  13. I'm a (proud) American as well. But I'm also a realist. As I mentioned, the dollar rally underway is irrational. Markets in general are irrational in the short term. The dollar increase, unfortunately, is not based on the fundamentals of the dollar. M3 has expanded by roughly 18% yearly since 2001 and now we're going to be printing money like it's going out of style to fund the obligations of Fannie/Freddie, et. al. The $700B bailout was just a down payment. Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke will make sure of it.
  14. Capitalism works. And it is our way out of this mess. But it's not a quick fix, and in fact it's a long painful one given the hole we've dug.... But we won't go that route. Instead we'll run the printing presses 24/7 and inflate our way out which is going to set us up for an even bigger fall down the road.... The collapse of the dollar. Our economy is based 70% on consumer spending. But we no longer produce goods for the most part, and we have no savings. So instead we borrow to consume, and that model is an economic house of cards that can not stand up forever. The dollar rally that is underway currently is completely irrational, has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the dollar, and will not last for long IMO. Some of it, I agree, is based on perceptions of safety and stability. But a large part of it is due to deleveraging and redemptions, and those will come to an end. And some of it also has to do with some weak world currencies in the dollar index from countries that themselves are in peril. But in the long run, given the path down which we are heading, I don't share you optimism. In fact, I would say that most of the world will come to the realization that buying dollars - i.e. propping us up - is no longer in their best interests. All the manufacturing capabilities in the rest of the world are what will allow them to say to hell with the USA... In the long run they won't need us, and I think they're starting to realize that if they just let us collapse then eventually they'll be better off.
  15. Yes, anything is possible. But then the government foots the bill for the debt burden of the original mortgage and there's no reason to move into a different house... I.e. if they're going to revalue the mortgage on your house then you should just stay in your house. And this is precisely what they are going to start doing. $700B for the bailout is just barely scratching the surface.
  16. Indeed! Now there's nothing wrong with greed just so long as people are gambling with their own money. But when they're gambling with MY money, I want some [censored] consequences for losing it. I'm a free market guy through and through as well, but I'm also a pragmatist. And aside from the government mandates to make loans to people who could not afford them, a huge blunder that resulted in the squandering of trillions was the deregulation of the derivatives market. The credit default swaps absolutely needed regulation just like the insurance industry because normal market feedback mechanisms don't work in those markets until disaster strikes, so now we've suddenly discovered astronomical counterparty risks and it's too late. Thanks primarily go to Alan Greenspan for this one.
  17. Yea, you'd think we could have learned a lesson by now, wouldn't you... Unfortunately that is too far removed and Paulson and Bernanke are taking us down the exact same path that caused the Great Depression, the difference being that this time we don't have a sound underlying economy as we did in the 30's. Very scary times, and I honestly think at this point the likelihood Zimbabwe-like outcome is roughly a coin flip.
  18. In the real world, the reset button costs trillions and trillions of dollars and would usher in hyperinflation. Can anyone say "Zimbabwe" ?
  19. Yea. It's the same, but different. The difference under your plan would be that they'd have a mortgage on the new house at current market value instead of a mortgage on the market value from 3 years ago.... But, yea, bad plan to put irresponsible people into new loans by relaxing lending standards. Fact is, those who can't afford homes need to go back to renting and lending standards dramatically improve. And sadly, the real solution is to just let there be pain for a while.... i.e. don't manipulate the market and let the crash and the recession take its natural course.
  20. Right. When Freddie/Fannie were quasi-governmental agencies they (supposedly) had government oversight. That government oversight was so effective that they went bankrupt, and now that the government has assumed even more control we're supposed to believe that they'll act responsibly? Truth be told, I think an even bigger problem with the resetting of mortgages to lower levels than the rewarding of irresponsibility is that it absolutely screws those who did act responsibly. Let's say you have two neighbors living side by side in their 4 year old tuscan style track homes that they purchased at the same time for the same price... One guy saved money so he could put a down payment on his house and took out a 30 year fixed mortgage. He's working hard, making his payments, and his house is now worth far less than he paid but he can afford it. The next door neighbor couldn't actually afford his house, so he took out a subprime loan. After the first year, he refinanced and cashed out his $50K of equity which he used to put in granite counter tops, travertine floors, a jacuzzi, a swimming pool, and had a "media room" installed. Well, now he's under water and can't afford the payments after his rate went up because he never could have afforded the house under sane lending practices in the first place, and because he further increased his debt obligation by leveraging himself even further when prices went up. So what does the government do? They come in and lower his mortgage allowing him to keep all that stuff (freebies), while the responsible next door neighbor who didn't use his equity to upgrade his house and toys and didn't get a deal from the government to revalue his mortgage is now making higher payments than his neighbor on a far less fancy house that is much further under water because he was being prudent, exercising restraint, and acting responsibly all along!!?? It's absolutely backwards and mind boggling...
  21. A couple comments... So, you're saying, for example, if someone has payments on a $500K mortgage that they can no longer afford after their adjustable teaser rate expired and their house is now worth $250K they might be willing to move in to an already foreclosed home that was mortgaged at, say, $300K and assume those payments, right? Here's a question, then... Why would anyone be motivated to assume mortgage payments on an asset that is now worth a fraction of what that mortgage was originally drawn at? The house that carries this $300K mortgage is now worth $200K or less. So nobody is going to want to make the overpriced payments, even if they can afford them. One of the big subprime debacles was that asset appreciation was factored in to the mortager's income. In other words, if houses were steadily appreciating by $25K a year in your neighborhood then, according to lending standards, that would be future wealth created for the mortgager which could be used to make the higher payments after the adjustable loan reset. I.e. if your salary was $50K then simply by owning this house, you'd be getting a 50% raise. Because owning a house was supposedly a zero-risk money-making proposition. But, of course, this never accounted for a crash and never accounted for people refinancing all their equity out in order to buy swimming pools, plasma TVs, boats, RVs, etc. So I just can't see how assuming high payments on a relatively worthless asset that can no longer generate income for the mortgager would be be appealing. These people never cared about credit ratings in the first place, or they wouldn't have gotten in over their heads. Secondly, foreclosed homes generally require complete remodels. A very high percentage of them are completely gutted and trashed. The ex-owners even rip out the copper pipes - literally anything of value in the house - before they're kicked out. Third, the Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae bailout is essentially going to reset mortgages to values people can afford and give money to the banks to get all the debt off their balance sheets. So, foreclosures are almost going to become a non-issue. In fact, we're almost at the point where there's no need to continue making mortgage payments because you simply won't be foreclosed on anyhow. So you might as well just stop making payments, live in the house you have now for free, and wait for a better deal from the government. Sure beats moving into a smaller house with less cool stuff that's under water and may never be out of the red again in this lifetime. Of course, in reality, it's a horrible plan. The government should not be doing this. And it's just going to make things much worse in the future.... Now, just so you know, I like the idea a lot more than the plan that is being implemented thanks to Congress. Your dad's plan doesn't reward irresponsibility nearly as much, and doesn't punish those who actually saved money and bought homes they could afford with conventional loan products. But I just think there are too many reasons why it can not work in the real world. *sigh* Kinda depressing.
  22. I was under the impression they were new on the SA. I could be wrong.
  23. Yea, I'm going to stick with my blue dial with numerals. I like the shimery/silvery subdial constrast. But if anyone wants a gen blue sticks dial, I can get one for a good deal.
  24. Yea I think I like the white, too.... Hmmm.... Could really make for a one of a kind franken, and even cooler to have before the stick marker reps come out!
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