Rolex market prices

[Whatever123]

Hi there!

I need some opinions...

After looking for gen Rolexes for a while I'm really appalled by the price level. Of course I know of the recent price increases and they seem to have affected the used market almost equally. You can't find a decent GMT Master II for under 3500 euros here in Germany. And that's for watches that are 15+ years old and have never been serviced...

What do you think? Is it still a good Investment to buy a used Rollie now or is the market already overheated and prices are likely to decrease again? I think Rolex might have taken it too far... it still works, some people might even be attracted - otherwise the price level on the used market wouldn't be like it is... but there has to be an end to this price spiral... hasn't it?

Cheers,

O.

[automatico]

It seems to be a test to see how high retail prices can go before buyer resistance causes a loss in revenue...if they can make $1billion profit with a production of 950,000 pieces, making the same profit while selling 800,000 pieces would be much better.

Otoh, maybe they are trying to move upmarket by raising prices every few months, thereby weeding out low class price hagglers (like me).

For what it's worth...they weeded me out 13 years ago. I have not set foot in a rolex AD since May 1998.

Since later model used rolex watches tend to rise with retail prices, modern watches in the used market will keep going up as long as retail prices rise. The 16610 may rise ahead of other models because they are no longer in production and still in demand.

I guess if I wanted a late model DJ, sub, XI, XII, GMT etc, I would keep my eyes open for a motivated seller who needs $$ and does not read watch forums on the internet (TZ, WN etc 'for sale' prices have always been quite a bit higher than what I would pay). The last modern rolex I bought was a 'like new' (I don't like that term) 14010M AK for $1200 a year or so back.

It really was 'like new'...except the idiot who owned it used pliers on the crown.

I doubt Germany is the same as the USA though...in the USA many rolex owners will sell their watch for half what it is worth if they need fast $$. To catch this type of seller, you might place a WTB ad in the local paper and meet prospective sellers at your bank. If you like the watch, make an offer...if they say "Ok", draw the $$ out of the bank and pay them.

I bought a few watches this way and it is safer than meeting a stranger at a potentially unsafe location...a stranger who knows you are carrying enough $$ to buy a rolex watch.

[panerai153]

Unfortunately, I'm afraid that used prices are pretty much linear to new prices. This has been the case with Rolex for many years. There are as automatico said going to be exceptions to the general rule. Here in the USA for same reason Rolex is a source of fast cash when the owner gets in a bind. Back in the mid eighties when oil took a huge plunge and the "oil belt was devestated, there were so many 18k Rolex "Presidents" floating around for sale, the prices went down to almost scrap gold prices. After the "Dot Com" bust in 2000, same thing, guys unloaded high end watches by the ton! Under the usual circumstances, prices tend to rise with the new prices.

I believe that your best bet is trying to find one here in the USA and maybe getting someone who you know and trust, or yourself, bring it back to Germany on your wrist.If that isn't feasible, I would look through the classified advertisements in your city or surrounding cities, and possibly pick up one that way. i really don't believe that prices are going to suddenly fall through the floor, unless we have a tremendous economic crisis that would impact everyone. Another thing, with the Euro as strong as it is against the dollar, you could make a better deal in the USA, converting euros to dollars and buying with cheap dollars.

[ubiquitous]

I think that there is also an interesting trend taking place where current buyers are not exactly pleased with some of the new designs that Rolex has been introducing as of late. As such, people would rather buy the older, more classic designs that Rolex has been known for instead of buying their newer, chunkier watches that have left many feeling luke warm about. As a result, the market may be responding to that kind of activity as well; vintage pieces (pre-80's) have enjoyed an escalating trend of growth in perceived value for the last 10 years as the public at large became aware of the collectable nature of such watches. As many vintage pieces have increased beyond the levels that some would consider a reasonable entry point, the attention and focus may now be turning to the models produced in the late 80's - early 90's era as those have been overlooked in many instances since vintage has long been the primary focus. In other words, there have been a lot of relatively decent priced watches that fall into this category, and these transitional pieces may be enjoying a bit of increase in attention as well now.

[wiesn089]

I'm with you 100% on this one.

This for example is just ridiculous. Who in his right mind does buy an insert for that amount of money? Just when I thought prices wouldn't approach idiotic levels again (judging by the full spec Milsub a guy is trying to sell on VRF for quite some time) this joker comes around. There's also an early 6265 with wrong subdial hands and a movement which obviously doesn't reset to zero probably for sale at $28,500. Bracelets and other parts have skyrocketed and the list goes on and on...

Honestly I don't know if I'll ever be able or willing to afford a gen mid 70's 5513 as I was planning to at these prices.

[Whatever123]

Thanks for your input guys!

I'm really not sure what to do... I don't see a Rolex mainly as an investment - it's a watch after all and I want to wear it. Still it's part of the deal. The prices are ridiculously high atm, I agree - and of course it helps to know that you won't lose too much if you sell it on after some time.

I'm looking around for a good deal but haven't found one yet. Prices in the US are a bit lower than in Germany and with the current exchange rate there might be good opportunities... still, I won't travel to the US in the near future and shipping is too much of a risk for me (and way too expensive if you want to insure it right + customs...).

Guess I'll have to keep looking...