dollar price - Quo Vadis?

[t]

today want purchase a vintage Cortebert movement from outside and ask for price in dollar. The seller respond me:

"i don

[Watchmeister]

Dollar is now a third world currency. And I would guess the dollar gets worse not better. If you look at the commodity boom or even watch prices and the rise in underlying prices and subtract out the currency moves the price increases don't look nearly as impressive (read as bad). In the U.S. all the European car manufacturers are either jacking up prices to reflect the decline in currency or increasing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. China is not so stupid to fix the yuan (okay it floats a little - )

[docblackrock]

Well for us, there's something quite gratifying about the venerable old

[Desuetude]

Dollar is now a third world currency. And I would guess the dollar gets worse not better. If you look at the commodity boom or even watch prices and the rise in underlying prices and subtract out the currency moves the price increases don't look nearly as impressive (read as bad). In the U.S. all the European car manufacturers are either jacking up prices to reflect the decline in currency or increasing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. China is not so stupid to fix the yuan (okay it floats a little - )

Yep. It's like the Carter era all over again. And they're still talking about dropping interest rates. Why can't they just kick em, bringing the exchange rate down? Then I can watch all the stocks fall and snap 'em all up . Wait...I've been doing that already VMW in the house!

[Victoria]

If we start talking about the US economy, the dollar being a third world currency (oh my God), and Carter administration inferences (someone shoot me if we're suffering stagflation), this thread is going to the crapper faster than a Dacia to a mechanic.

Not to mention Admin will move this to Off-Topic, and should.

Tourby asked about rep watches and the like in dollars. Here goes my answer without the political side-swipes.

I start with an example.

Recently, Tourby, Simona di Stefano (the famous strapmaker) has been suffering tremendous losses in her business, and has drastically had to cut down her strap prices on the Risti Accessories Corner. Straps that went for 220 Euro, are now 150/120 Euro, nearly an 100 Euro markdown.

You know why that is? Because the largest portion of her business comes from North America, the largest of that being the United States of America.

And if Americans don't buy, she has to do something about it, stat.

Clearly some industries cannot survive without Americans buying stuff from them, whether in Euros or Dollars.

So, if we're talking Euros, take this as a boon if you're an international seller, and a momentary set-back if you're an US buyer.

Since most Americans don't feel this crunch within their own borders, and are more than happy to sell their now competitively priced goods abroad, I think the rep watch business will be just fine.

Followup: Another famous (American) strapmaker has cut down his prices, shortly after seeing this markdown. After buying a strap from him, I emailed mentioning the price-drop, and he emailed back saying he's making a KILLING with European orders. Great stuff.

[Lyndonville]

If we start talking about the US economy, the dollar being a third world currency (oh my God), and Carter administration inferences (someone shoot me if we're suffering stagflation), this thread is going to the crapper faster than a Dacia to a mechanic.

Not to mention Admin will move this to Off-Topic, and should.

Tourby asked about rep watches and the like in dollars. Here goes my answer without the political side-swipes.

I start with an example.

Recently, Tourby, Simona di Stefano (the famous strapmaker) has been suffering tremendous losses in her business, and has drastically had to cut down her strap prices on the Risti Accessories Corner. Straps that went for 220 Euro, are now 150/120 Euro, nearly an 100 Euro markdown.

You know why that is? Because the largest portion of her business comes from North America, the largest of that being the United States of America.

And if Americans don't buy, she has to do something about it, stat.

Clearly some industries cannot survive without Americans buying stuff from them, whether in Euros or Dollars.

So, if we're talking Euros, take this as a boon if you're an international seller, and a momentary set-back if you're an US buyer.

Since most Americans don't feel this crunch within their own borders, and are more than happy to sell their now competitively priced goods abroad, I think the rep watch business will be just fine.

Followup: Another famous (American) strapmaker has cut down his prices, shortly after seeing this markdown. After buying a strap from him, I emailed mentioning the price-drop, and he emailed back saying he's making a KILLING with European orders. Great stuff.

Aha, someone who sees the greater picture of this temporary situation. Just remember, this door swings both ways and it's rather cyclical by the nature of the beast. Victoria is spot on about companies needing the USD as part of their mainstay in the business community. Should any of the Rep dealer, or, any other concern change their pricing from USD to BPS you'd see a huge drop in sales. Like it or not, that's just the way it is.

[Desuetude]

If we start talking about the US economy, the dollar being a third world currency (oh my God), and Carter administration inferences (someone shoot me if we're suffering stagflation), this thread is going to the crapper faster than a Dacia to a mechanic.

I wasn't referring to stagflation, I was merely referring to the 2 for 1 deal with the GBP. In fact, the last time the US economy's growth was this high (3.9% for this quarter) was 6 quarters ago.

[t]

@vbarret

you are right... but:

european sellers think for his future... and the future is dark for selling german/swiss products to USA.

I sell 70% of my products to US buyers. And yes you are right when you say: I NEED THIS US CUSTOMERS. But my thinking goes away from US customers to more EUROPE customers. I work now more with EU customers and will do more for my EU business... I have neglected my EU business last years and have list my items mostly on US ebay or on US watch forums and made promotion mostly on US sites. But this times are OVER. I can

[Victoria]

@vbarret

you are right... but:

european sellers think for his future... and the future is dark for selling german/swiss products to USA.

Right now, yes.

What I don't understand is why people think that this is the way things are going to be.

A decade and a half ago, the Japanese yen was at an all-time high, and the US economy was down in the dumps, after its usual end-of-decade market correction. Then the US economy rebounded, in large part due to globalised markets opening up and the Fourth Wave revolutionising the world, whilst the Yen fell precipitously.

What didn't stop was the Japanese car market staying afloat, because they provided competitive prices compared to American makes. Did the Americans take this lying down? No, interests rates went down, American quality control improved, and even Koreans got into the party, because they saw the killing they could make in the USA.

Now European goods are prohibitively expensive for Americans, whereas American goods are actually fairly competitive, and since they're of better quality than Chinese goods will be for AT LEAST the next 20 years, the American economy hasn't suffered as it could have been.

If you asked me, it's about time Chinese collectors started paying attention to you guys. It's scandalous how mere laws kept them from selling their counterfeit goods to Europeans.

Now you know who your friends really are, Tourby.

[tazzman]

As a FX-trader I have followed the dollar for some while now but I won't go any deep into some dollar-analysis on either short or long term.

The dollar will probably keep falling towards the Euro and other currencies.

1 hour ago US lowered their interest rate again to handle the sub-prime/housing problem, this won't get the dollar higher in the medium term.

Another big fundamental thing why I belive of lower dollar in the future is that china and other big countries are moving there currency-reserve in dollar towards euro/pound...

So, even if the dollar is 13 year low to the euro there is no thing as "it cant get lower" .. so I say EUR/USD towards 1.5 in the near term then targeting 1.59, 1.68, 1.76 ...

Result, higher USD-prices for our reps

Good or bad? for me it doesnt matter.

take care,

M

[Raijor]

The Canadian dollar has risen with respect to the U.S. dollar. .... Sorry my mistake ... the U.S. dollar has tumbled down to the Canadian dollar level. ... Hey there Yanks I think it is time we started bailing together.

[Lyndonville]

Right now, yes.

What I don't understand is why people think that this is the way things are going to be.

A decade and a half ago, the Japanese yen was at an all-time high, and the US economy was down in the dumps, after its usual end-of-decade market correction. Then the US economy rebounded, in large part due to globalised markets opening up and the Fourth Wave revolutionising the world, whilst the Yen fell precipitously.

What didn't stop was the Japanese car market staying afloat, because they provided competitive prices compared to American makes. Did the Americans take this lying down? No, interests rates went down, American quality control improved, and even Koreans got into the party, because they saw the killing they could make in the USA.

Now European goods are prohibitively expensive for Americans, whereas American goods are actually fairly competitive, and since they're of better quality than Chinese goods will be for AT LEAST the next 20 years, the American economy hasn't suffered as it could have been.

If you asked me, it's about time Chinese collectors started paying attention to you guys. It's scandalous how mere laws kept them from selling their counterfeit goods to Europeans.

Now you know who your friends really are, Tourby.

Listen to the lady. The currency fluctuates, that's a given, depending on factors you can't see or control. Take stocks as an example. If you purchased Exxon or Apple, or, Chrysler, 30 years ago and left it alone you'd be wealthy beyond your imagination. The thing is - stay the course. Allow for the ups and downs of the market and don't freak over the Yen going up and the Dollar going down. In the long run, if you simply leave it alone and deal with what you have you'll be ahead of the game over time. Jump around in the marketplace and you'll gain short term, but you'll lose long term.

[KB]

Reminds me I was in the bank the other day and a Japanese gent at the next window was convert Yen to Aussie dollars, after counting up his money he say's "Why you give me 93 cents to 100 Yen, yesterday you give me 95 cents?" and the teller looked at him and said "fluctuations" the Japanese gent looked at him and said "Oh Yeah well Fluck you Aussie Bastids too!"

Ken

[ironmarshal]

Currency markets go in long cycles and are largely dependent upon local business climates. The dollar is weak now, but less than 8 years ago all of europe was decrying how poorly the euro was performing versus the dollar. At .86 euros per dollar the discussion was exactly the opposite of what it is today. Just ride the long waves and forget all this discussion of a third world currency. If you think it will keep getting weaker then use the currency markets to hedge your profit loss from currency fluctuations.

The watch market will be just fine in the long term.