Mising out on 20k$

[LegendofSpeed]

If you had been there, price would've been higher than $20k obviously... maybe a little more, maybe a lot more...

Someone got a sweet deal though... it would be crazy if it was just someone taking a flyer on it.... "I'll throw a lowball bid on it, because you never know"

[Dani]

If you had been there, price would've been higher than $20k obviously... maybe a little more, maybe a lot more...

Someone got a sweet deal though... it would be crazy if it was just someone taking a flyer on it.... "I'll throw a lowball bid on it, because you never know"

very true, i em all over this it done over finito.

Cant go back in time so why grudge over it.

[chiefwiggum]

Me - I'd simply reposess $20k of my sister's belongings and either sell them to her or on Ebay - In which case you have to reposess about $60k off her to make anything on that shitty site.

Either that or give her a $60K slapping :D :D

Better still - It's Friday! Go on a weekend bender and get shitfaced - That way you'll know how feeling bad really is on Monday morning!!!!

[P4GTR]

ahaha something tells me Dani is probably already drunk.

[Dani]

ahaha something tells me Dani is probably already drunk.

[liquid-air888]

This auction is not well nown not man people now it was so the ap when for sat price no one bided on it so a profit at over 20k was lost, imagne you lose 20k due to a glip in your memory bank.

Here...I have a good story of "missed opportunity" for you.

By no means am I trying to be boastful. Just trying, using my own experience, to put things into perspective.

Our family is in the property development business in a small, but prosperous South East Asian city. We're not considered a large company by any means and had to toil extremely hard for what we have. So we bought a piece of land some years back and then went through years of deep recession. Throughout these years, we held on to this property with borrowed money and lots of blood sweat and tears. Finally when the market picked up a little bit, we managed to build a multi-storey office/retail complex costing us a total of $85M. Yes...that's "M", not "K". Of which, 60% of that was borrowed money and the rest was our own capital...

Because we were up to our necks in debt and interest charges incurred during those hard recession years, we were forced to sell this hard-earned project to a giant real estate investor for exactly the price we built it at.

He sat on it for 5 months. Miraculously the market exploded and he sold it for $216M.

5 months...

If we only knew....if we only knew.....we could've sat on it for 5 more months.....

So...4 years of hard-toiling and weathering the storm didn't bring us anything. This guy came in, sat on it for 5 months and made over $130M. Again, that's "M"...

I remember I was knocking my head on the wall really, really hard when the news was printed all over the front pages of the daily papers when my wise ol'dad explained: "You should feel so lucky for being able to get out of this with our heads above water. Look around you. Many people in the business weren't so lucky and didn't get out of the recession. Either they went bankrupt, out of business or worse....they're in jail..."

So that's just life. Full of missed opportunities. You win some...you lose some....We can only hope that we chalk up more wins in our lifetime more than the losses.

Don't even spend a moment looking back. Just carry on moving forward. There'll be more opportunities ahead.

Believe me...

There's a silver lining to this whole saga, but that's another story for another time...

[iceberg1459]

[Raijor]

Dani your story reminds me of another I was once told by a great teacher. of mine. I would like to share it with you.

There was a farmer in a Chinese village who was considered very wealthy because he was the only man in his village who owned a horse. He used the horse for plowing and for transportation. One day his horse ran away and all his neighbors lamented how terrible this was, but the farmer simply said "Maybe".

A few days later the horse returned and brought two wild horses back with it. Now the farmer had three horses and his neighbors none. The neighbors rejoiced at the farmers good fortune, but he replied only "Maybe".

The next day the farmer's son tried to ride one of the wild horses and was thrown off and broke his leg. The neighbors cried about his misfortune and poor son but he again only replied "Maybe."

The next week soldiers came to the village to conscript young men into the army and took the neighbors sons but could not take the farmers son because his leg was broken. The farmers cursed their bad fortune and congratulated the farmer on his good fortune in not losing his son but he only answered "Maybe".

Dani, "Maybe" your fortune is not yet final.

[Dutchy]

I love the stories. Good thread

[Codammanus-2014]

very true, i em all over this it done over finito.

Hmmmmm.....I wonder what he meant by that???

Anyone else with a story?

Edited September 6, 2008 by Codammanus-2014

[Dutchy]

Hmmmmm.....I wonder what he meant by that???

I think he means "I'm done with this, it's over with, finito"

In other words, he's over it.

I always try to decipher Dani's posts

[Codammanus-2014]

I'm trying to decipher the string of stories that continue after "finito"

Fin, Finito, Finale, Coda, all mean the same thing.

Translation:

Dani needs another story???

Edited September 6, 2008 by Codammanus-2014

[Shundi]

@ Codeammanus-2014 -

1. Rolex's value is not "overinflated" - no more so than PAMs or AP - Luxury goods are luxury goods- exclusivity trumps other standard macroeconomic factors, else people wouldn't be paying $8K for something that cost $1k to manufacture.

2. You never know what the market will bring...just because a watch is popular now does not mean it will always be popular...especially if you were borrowing money (Dani wasn't) to make a quick switch... you never know what fate will throw your way and if you're got family stuff going on...you never wanna tempt fate...

[Codammanus-2014]

@ Codeammanus-2014 -

1. Rolex's value is not "overinflated" - no more so than PAMs or AP - Luxury goods are luxury goods- exclusivity trumps other standard macroeconomic factors, else people wouldn't be paying $8K for something that cost $1k to manufacture.

2. You never know what the market will bring...just because a watch is popular now does not mean it will always be popular...especially if you were borrowing money (Dani wasn't) to make a quick switch... you never know what fate will throw your way and if you're got family stuff going on...you never wanna tempt fate...

That was not an opinion sir. It is a simple economic fact. To illustrate: A Nike shoe only costs about $3-$5 to make. It is sold for upwards of $200.00 on the high end. That, sir, is overinflated.

The MSRP for a Daytona (Using non-precious metals whose price does not fluctuate) is about $9k. Rolex doesn't discount (that's not inflation), yet dealers sell (and Rolex benefits GREATLY from) OVERPRICED sales of Daytonas. $12k to $You name it. Wait lists affect this price, of course, and one could argue that rarity is justifiably reason for higher price (which is why most people don't gripe about dealer's prices). The gold models are outright ridiculous because of the gold, which can easily be pushed on gold prices going up (which is not always the case over the years). ADVERTISING and the Rolex name are the main sources of their inflated price.

Any item can go down in value. (Again, not an opinion, that's common sense). However, this market GLOBAL ECONOMY on the down side...

What effect has this had on AP?

Give me an example of one of their limited editions during THIS bad time, that has dropped in value in the manner that you are speaking. (Let me save you some time...)Also, this was going to be a quick flip right? So you were speaking of a possible catastrophic economic turn other than the one at present (or soon to pass). During this same time something could have happened to Mr. Barrichello, and we all know the effect untimely death has on already rare items. Both scenarios are just as likely to happen. So, sticking within the realms of the present possibilities, chances are he would have made at least $5k profit, if not more. (Probably not $20k profit though).

But,

I thought he already said his closing remarks. It included the word "finito" and "It's over with"

So, we have both regressed from the conclusion quite a bit.

Edited September 6, 2008 by Codammanus-2014

[Codammanus-2014]

I also thought I might mention (I'm just as "deaf" or "blind" as anyone else so I'm still talking)

If you own a Rolex, and paid $$$$ for it. Feel good about that.

That is part of what drives the price too. The buyer (but really a profit-focused dealer, which is perfectly normal).

I'd rather have that Barrichello than a Rolex. (Unless it's dripping with diamonds of course. For sale purposes only).

Regards,

Coda.

Edited September 6, 2008 by Codammanus-2014

[thomasng]

Going back to the original topic:

Where's the listing? I find it highly improbable it went for $20K... it could have been a last minute shill by the seller who had a proxy bid of $40K, to prevent anyone from snatching it up at $20K. No real collector is that stupid to let it go for $20K. If it's Fleabay, it's also likely the auction was fake or by a hijacked account, a lot of too good to be true deals on eBay are scams from hijacked accounts (you can tell by long inactivity, or the seller normally deals in low value items)

Also, the moral is you do not "lose" money that you COULD have hypothetically earned- otherwise I would claim I have lost millions as I didn't snatch up some stocks I was planning to... I went and bought something like $50K worth of Bear Stearns when it collapsed and I was kicking myself for not buying more. It didn't mean that I lost a few $100K though.

[Codammanus-2014]

Here: AP JP Montoya

Also,

I'm an idiot for confusing Montoya with Barrichello. But I still think either way this piece will hold its value. Formula 1 to Nascar to making hotdogs in a racing car.

"I am delighted that Juan Pablo Montoya now officially wears an Audemars Piguet watch on his wrist. He is a friend of the brand and we are thrilled to be making it public. Haute Horlogerie and Formula 1 share many fundamental values such as daring and precision."

"Formula 1" is interchangeable with any other name. The AP and Montoya are not.

That might even make it more collectible!!!! 1,000 pieces of any AP=$$$$$$$

No real collector is that stupid to let it go for $20K.

I didn't understand the pricing either. I was thinking suspiciously, but it's the real deal. The discount (esp. w/o reason) doesn't make sense. Offered with b&p though, and welcomed requests for more info.

Edited September 6, 2008 by Codammanus-2014

[beetlesblue]

I think that Thomas was asking about the actual place/listing/auction/ whatever where the watch was listed for $20K. You've just given us a link to a sales ad that I think was posted before. Are you saying that the watch in the ad listing eventually went for $20K? If that's what you meant, then sorry, I misunderstood what you were trying to do.

[Codammanus-2014]

(Edit)

Dani just said "he received notice" about an auction. I don't know. I guess you were right because that is not an auction. He will have to post that if he chooses. I don't know how it sold for $20k either (as Thomas mentioned). Where did the bidding start? $10K $15K.

I don't get it, but I don't need to.

Edited September 6, 2008 by Codammanus-2014

[southcoast68]

Here is another one of those stories, althought its on a quite smaller scale that some others told here. This is also of personal experience. Last fall I was at a local flea market (yes, a flea market) and was looking for something cool. This particular flea market has some rather nice watch dealers. One had a few nice pieces and among them was a Wakmann chronograph, stainless steel with a black dial and white subdials. I took a closer look, I liked it, but I was looking for something Omega that day and wanted to stick by my guns. I asked how much and got the reply "ehh $400". I did not quite have enough on me, I was interested but finally decided to wait on buying anything for another day. I did recognise the name but was fuzzy on its history (did not know that they were in part related to Breitling years ago).

Here is where I screwed up, I did not recognise this watch right away as being a V72C (C for calendar). This movement added a day, date and month complication to the chronograph and is the same movement used by many back in the day (names like Vulcain, Certina, Enicar and yes...Rolex). That night I made the mistake of looking it up on Ebay and other sites and realised I could have sold it over for $1500 +/-. That flea market was closed during the week, but I went back the following Saturday only to find the watch gone.

Of course, thinking back, I liked it just enough that I would have probably kept it in the collection and not have made any monetary profit from it. Oh well, life goes on.

[Shundi]

@ C

I agree completely that the purchase PRICE is overinflated... You examples specifically refer to MSRP and I do not contend, for one second, that Rolex, Nike, etc. are not inflated in terms of MSRP and initial price. Most Nike's, Jaguars, etc will also depreciate fairly quickly (there are exceptions) while almost all Rolex watches will (in general) hold or appreciate in value.

I will and do contend, however, that the VALUE of a Rolex is "overinflated": Rollies have, for the most part, held or exceeded their original purchase price in terms of valuation (90% TZ in good condition obvi.) since the 1970s and as you've proven in your AP example, when the global economy is on the downswing, scarcity, hedging etc cause exclusive luxury items to hold or appreciate in value.

My second original point was, I admit, more of a generality in terms of watches as inelastic goods: As you said (and, I will admit, not in the case of the AP SE's) any item can lose value and sometimes playing in the buy and flip business can bring huge rewards...but also huge losses.

Take care,

Shundi

[Dani]

I think he means "I'm done with this, it's over with, finito"

In other words, he's over it.

I always try to decipher Dani's posts

hehe, bro you are correct so you are doing good.

Going back to the original topic:

Where's the listing? I find it highly improbable it went for $20K... it could have been a last minute shill by the seller who had a proxy bid of $40K, to prevent anyone from snatching it up at $20K. No real collector is that stupid to let it go for $20K. If it's Fleabay, it's also likely the auction was fake or by a hijacked account, a lot of too good to be true deals on eBay are scams from hijacked accounts (you can tell by long inactivity, or the seller normally deals in low value items)

Also, the moral is you do not "lose" money that you COULD have hypothetically earned- otherwise I would claim I have lost millions as I didn't snatch up some stocks I was planning to... I went and bought something like $50K worth of Bear Stearns when it collapsed and I was kicking myself for not buying more. It didn't mean that I lost a few $100K though.

Thomas and any one else that thinks i em full of bs and this and that i do not need to prove anything over the web.

This was a local auction LIVE not on web and its small auction firm that had customs seized goods to sell from people that can't show have they can buy expensive stuff and such..

Not one person on Norways biggest watch forum now about this auction that says alot.

Ill show you guys a pic of the watch from auction try find that pic anywhere else then from me

And yes i now that many other have similar stuff happend to them but i was more angry and sad that such a thing can glip my mind then the potential gain of profit that also sucks to lose a potential gold mine but hey its have it is, as others said it could be that the winner would go to 30k$ but no it did go for 98000NOK do a conversion on that to dollars

[thomasng]

Just looking for clarification- don't take offense to it.

Good day.

Being a customs auction would probably explain the majority of it. I would expect Norway not to have a huge market for people into AP, or a lot of enthusiasts would miss these small auctions as they're not really advertised. I've seen some dirt cheap deals at Canada Customs auctions seizures on brands like Vacheron Constantin, Breguet and more "obscure" brands.

Again, the principle here is don't treat it as a loss of $20K- there's plenty of potential gold mines out there, whether it's through the stock market, real estate, etc. You just need to do your research well and make wise decisions. Yes I realize that this is a "quick profit" thing, but just too many other chances in life to get hung up on this.

[Dani]

Just looking for clarification- don't take offense to it.

Good day.

Being a customs auction would probably explain the majority of it. I would expect Norway not to have a huge market for people into AP, or a lot of enthusiasts would miss these small auctions as they're not really advertised. I've seen some dirt cheap deals at Canada Customs auctions seizures on brands like Vacheron Constantin, Breguet and more "obscure" brands.

Again, the principle here is don't treat it as a loss of $20K- there's plenty of potential gold mines out there, whether it's through the stock market, real estate, etc. You just need to do your research well and make wise decisions. Yes I realize that this is a "quick profit" thing, but just too many other chances in life to get hung up on this.

very true Thomas and i appreciate your input

Cheers

[archibald]

Way I see it, anyone in any business who hasn't missed a 20k opportunity is even less lucky than you. Anyone who hasn't missed a 20k (or more) opportunity has had too few 20k opportunities. I wouldn't worry about blowing this one. If this is the only 20k opportunity you think you'll ever get, then that would really suck.