This Week In The US Economy

[Shundi]

I have not read this whole thread, but is anyone else [censored] off that Obama was at a BASKETBALL game the other night? I am not out watching the Bulls get the [censored] beat out of them and I have a lot less problems than Obama. Hey President, get your ass back in the office and fix [censored]! Is this the Change he talked about?

I mean...he is human and needs to relax but I do think it sends a mixed message on the whole "accomplishing" and "change" messages...if you're gonna commit, commit.

[jonthebhoy]

Did he have one of those 'clapping hands' hats on, cos if he did I'd be apoplectic!

[Fidestro]

Did he have one of those 'clapping hands' hats on, cos if he did I'd be apoplectic!

No, he had a foam finger of "the shocker"!

j/k

[Demsey]

Well h*ll.

After today I've resigned myself to the fact; The 'entreprenurial' and cousined 'investor class' are on their own. Barack Obama doesn't have it in for the free-market, he just doesn't consider it. At all. He cares, but not enough to care enough to act. No real shocker. The 'free-market' is literally part of the 'Republican' referendum as it's dictionary definition. These 'new jobs' are largely going to be 'government jobs'. Uh duh. And oh well. Kind of a backdoor way to raise unemployment figures tho'. Man, those on union pensions, others looking to retire on 401k's this decade are lost. They'll never recover this now. Folk of this generation are going to work until they die. I always did admire the Russians for that. It's noble. It is going to suck too.

So, waiting on the Hill to 'play nice' to even throw a bone to a Bear Market rally isn't going to happen. lol 'frinstance on one hand Geithner and Bernanke propose the toxic assets of banks will be absorbed by a 'partnership' between federal funds and the private sector? Great! Then starting October 1st of THIS year, hedge fund and equity managers, those who would take up the 'private' side are going to be subjected to a 38% capital gains tax? Yeah, great. There's some incentive. Work 2X and get 1X. Brilliant. I'm sure they'll all just decide to work harder instead of leaving the US to work in an emerging market. Shoot, I hear Argentina is nice.

Wall Street needs to stop looking to Washington now and forward. It 'aint coming. It needs to do what it always has; invest in 'American Industry' and the American 'Industrial' and weather the political storm. This market is just so undersold it has to move on sheer frustration and boredom with 'politics'. If the adminstration wants to go the laissez-faire with regard, fine. That's what built the Clinton years' bubbles. BAC has announced no less than three times in as many weeks, it's sorry it took a dime of TARP. There were some great rallies right in the middle of the Great Depression. Time to move on. The 'Obama Plan' has nothing in it for me. I'm too 'up and running' I suppose. That's cool, I don't need any help. All for the 'welfare state' then? God Bless.

You know who I'd be afraid to be? A Democrat in the House. Come '10. It won't be a Conservative coup either, it will a revolt from the base that got them there. No magic wand, no 'mortgage paid', 'gas tanks filled up', 'little pink houses for you and me', but $14 in your paycheck? The politically uninformed, who voted in a 'slogan' and an unrealistic ideal are going to be p*ssed! Hope they just heap it on themselves and not the President. He's just doing what he said he would do. Nothing wrong with that. At all.

Hmmmm, What was W.'s approval rating after 9/11? When he spelled out "What it was he was going to do?" 80%. And the crowd went nuts. Then he did it, and the people kicked him in the nuts for it in the end? Oh O.. Oh O.

Edited March 3, 2009 by Demsey

[Fidestro]

I am going to post a conversation topic I had the other day with some friends. My old man has degrees in political science and economics and taught for a while. We were discussing the horrors of being an economics teacher right now, anywhere from high school on up. How on earth could you teach about a capitalist society and how the best businesses survive and the others go out of business in today's business environment? AIG is turning Uncle Sam into an ATM machine and GM is on the way there as well. How do you tell a student about the principles of scarce resources and how they apply to running a successful business vs a failing business and the minute your student walks out the door and gets on CNN.com or turns on the tube they see the Gov't bailing out bankers making millions?

[Demsey]

I am going to post a conversation topic I had the other day with some friends. My old man has degrees in political science and economics and taught for a while. We were discussing the horrors of being an economics teacher right now, anywhere from high school on up. How on earth could you teach about a capitalist society and how the best businesses survive and the others go out of business in today's business environment? AIG is turning Uncle Sam into an ATM machine and GM is on the way there as well. How do you tell a student about the principles of scarce resources and how they apply to running a successful business vs a failing business and the minute your student walks out the door and gets on CNN.com or turns on the tube they see the Gov't bailing out bankers making millions?

I was going to post "You hand the student a copy of the Communist Manifesto, but it's too much a stretch. Is there a Socialist Manifetso though?

[fat.tail.event]

I would be curious to hear your father comment on the percentages of peers that were Keynesian vs. Chicago School, or if he even ever bumped into someone from the Austrian School. I bet the numbers would come back 75% Keynesian within the US university econ. departments. At least that's how I felt while attained my degrees. Conservative students would jam the lines trying to seek a seat among like minded professors. So I think your father is highlighting a conflict/bias that has been plagueing our institutions for quite sometime, but now its taking its place with the front page news items. I agree with your father's worries on this, but unfortunately I think its quite the opposite of most sentiments within academia. Sadly, I can see my former professors salivating as they watch private enterprise latch on to the public teat. This is the golden, Keynesian moment they have been waiting for since post-WWII. They are sitting back and taking daily notes on this disaster and the responses for the next case study to present to their students. It was so enfuriating listening to those whack-job theses about how WWII pulled us out of the Great Depression. Ten years from now the poor B-school kids will be hearing about how the Great BHO Plan pulled us out of the Great Recession.

But I am hopeful the US Tax Revolts of 2012 and the Global Food Crisis of 2011 will detract from it.

I am going to post a conversation topic I had the other day with some friends. My old man has degrees in political science and economics and taught for a while. We were discussing the horrors of being an economics teacher right now, anywhere from high school on up. How on earth could you teach about a capitalist society and how the best businesses survive and the others go out of business in today's business environment? AIG is turning Uncle Sam into an ATM machine and GM is on the way there as well. How do you tell a student about the principles of scarce resources and how they apply to running a successful business vs a failing business and the minute your student walks out the door and gets on CNN.com or turns on the tube they see the Gov't bailing out bankers making millions?

[HauteHippie]

I would be curious to hear your father comment on the percentages of peers that were Keynesian vs. Chicago School, or if he even ever bumped into someone from the Austrian School. I bet the numbers would come back 75% Keynesian within the US university econ. departments.

90% IMO

[RobbieG]

I'm speechless about this stuff lately. Mostly because I'm baffled at how many Americans have no idea that all their ideals and everything they have is a result of the free market as opposed to democracy. They think they are the same thing. Wow. But even more disturbing is the number of armchair socialists that live here who also have no idea they are socialists and condemn the same ideas when presented differently in a different country. Here is what about sums up the view which is growing at a rate faster than the speed of the freefall of life as we know it:

- When things are good for me there is no reason to discuss anything. What do I care after all? I blindly put money in my 401k since the burst bubble of the internet boom and I was way up. Besides, why should I make an effort to understand the markets I invest in? I'm no different than anyone else. It is up to my government to make sure I don't lose money.

-Wait, I'm losing money now, how can that happen? Who can we get to pay me back for this? Life isn't fair. Why should I be responsible for my own money unless I'm making it? If I'm losing it someone else should be responsible. That is how it should work really. If I'm up leave me alone, I know what I'm doing. If I'm down, help me, can't you see I need you? What is wrong with you Wall Street guys? Crooks I tell ya. Crooks.

- But my portfolio is down. Wait, so you are telling me that when markets go up and down everybody isn't winning or losing? You are kidding me, so If I'm making money it means somebody was losing money by selling what I was buying and it kept going up. Wow, I had no idea. But back to me which is what is really important after all...I don't care that if I lost it means somebody else won. Good for them? Fu*k no! I lost and that is all that matters. Somebody figure out how to make me whole again.

- The guy who won when I lost - is he rich? See, I thought so. Always the rich doing the poor ugly. We need more equality in net worth in this country. That is what the problem is. Make him give it back, there is no reason for RobbieG to have all that money. F*ck him - I need it more than him so it is only right he should give it to me, or at least feel bad that he has it and I don't.

- Huh, what do you mean that would be socialism? I have no idea what you are talking about. Now shut up and figure out a way for me to get my money back...

Rinse, repeat.

[Demsey]

I'm speechless about this stuff lately.............................

.....................- Huh, what do you mean that would be socialism? I have no idea what you are talking about. Now shut up and figure out a way for me to get my money back...

Rinse, repeat.

No doubt. Wait until the ' I ' guy needs an elective surgery on his knee so he can at least play on the public course................

Well at least I don't have to pay for it. It's free now. Wait, what do you mean I am on a waiting list? I don't need a kidney, I just want to golf in the Spring. THIS Spring!

"Not going to happen. There's always Mexico Surgical. Adios!"

<edit> Those italic tags must have driven you nutz!

Edited March 4, 2009 by Demsey

[Shundi]

Robbie I said something almost exactly like that a few weeks ago at a bar and about 8 people just went "Oh...uh...OH...wow...never thought of it that way"... very true

[RobbieG]

Sorry, I figured it was worth the extra post time though to illustrate the serious "me" complex we have going on lately around here. Some things never change. It us extra hard on me because I don't get it.

I have been everywhere on the socioeconomic scale including homeless myself and at no time did I begrudge another man having wealth or questioning if he deserves to have it. He negotiates a deal and whoever agrees to it, don't cry foul when you like the way things are going. To the contrary, I was always rooting for the baron of industry because they are usually smarter than the next guy and I like to learn things myself so I treat them as mentors, not villians.

I was always looking for ways to prop up rich people instead. I figure they know something I don't. While others are trying to figure out how to take his shine down, I was always the guy trying to figure out how to get a lunch meeting with him in the hopes that either I could learn something from him or maybe even he would think I was smart enough to give me access to some of his money. Worst case scenario would be I would get a new friend which would be fine too. The truth is that is how I got to the modest spot of being able to make a good and consistent living at what I do.

What the average person usually doesn't understand (and they should seeing that they are so looking out for the "me" lately) is that the best and easiest way to get rich yourself is to figure out a way to make rich people MORE money than they already have, not less. The less money the rich have in this country, given the way the free market system works, the worse off poor people are going to be. And that my friends is the true paradox of it all.

[Demsey]

What the average person usually doesn't understand (and they should seeing that they are so looking out for the "me" lately) is that the best and easiest way to get rich yourself is to figure out a way to make rich people MORE money than they already have, not less. The less money the rich have in this country, given the way the free market system works, the worse off poor people are going to be. And that my friends is the true paradox of it all.

This is the essence of 'Trickle Down' and there are, obviously, those who declare; "It does not work." But, it was in place since the '87, through the '01-'02 recessions and rode the indices up to the historical highs of the past year. If there is theory as to how 'Trickle Down' caused this current economic slide ( to the contrary I would go as far as to say 'Trickle Up' in it's 1979 impetus of the Community Reinvestment Act is to blame through the resultant mortgage/lending/housing debacle), or if anyone can point to a single piece of economic legislation that was penned from the President's desk these past eight years, I would sure enjoy reading that post. I guess I could learn something there.

'Trickle Down' has brought resentment from certain social strata. I would say that were misplaced frustration; "The rich get richer?! My A**!!" But the backlash from that resentment was rehtorical in nature, perhaps philosophical, and just served as political fodder; talking points for a Liberal agenda catering to the votes of 'those left behind'. It served well. Darn well. Now however, the shoe is on the other foot; 'Trickle Up' is the order of the day. This too will breed resentment, it is already, but from the other, diametrically opposed, social strata; the wealthy. The lower 95 percentile have the numbers, but the upper 5 have all the guns. The backlash will not be 'rehtorical' it will be 'actual' and just as political.

There is such a misplaced putsch of "Yeah! See how you like them apples! Yeah! You like havin' nothin' now!", but to make things worse on the 'powerful' will only grind the disenfranchised deeper under foot. They will have lost all empathy from the wealthy and will truely be 'disenfranchised', where they merely thought there were previously. There was always 'possibility'. The 'haves' and the 'have nots' will now be more defined than in recent history. The merely 'wealthy' of today are being dragged down to a lower income/wealth equilibrium to stagnate, the lower income strata will be artificially lifted by governement to the same level, to languor as well, into one homogenized 'working class'. It will appear as 'progess' but the high will soon subside for those given a leg up, and bitterness to those kicked down. There will be little opportunity to claw up out of it. That will please the current administration; it will be 'more fair'. The overclass, the extremely wealthy, will adapt and succeed to a 'closed door club' of such unimaginable wealth and power they will have government all sewn up. The words 'benefactor', 'philanthropist' and 'patron' will be out of their vocabulary for perceived ingratitude of being 'industrial'. This is going to be The Great Gatsby.

But then again, there are those mid term elections. Hmmmm. It just now occurs; no wonder the stimulus bill is set to overdrive; once a government policy is in place it's terribly hard to recall. God Bless America.

[fat.tail.event]

But then again, there are those mid term elections. Hmmmm. It just now occurs; no wonder the stimulus bill is set to overdrive; once a government policy is in place it's terribly hard to recall. God Bless America.

The issues we speak of will not be solved through an election process IMHO. That implies a solution with roots in political ideology. No, these issues are not those of Left or Right. They are of Right or Wrong. Robbie's comments speak to the heart of that matter, using entitlement as an example. Put simply, things just arent bad enough yet. Our homeostasis has not been disrupted to the point where it compels citizens to fully engage within this Republic. This is the 'hope' I have for this great country. The day will soon come, after the denial and theft of too many liberties (does anyone else hear 'taxation without representation' soon making a 200 year comeback leap?), when people refuse to look towards politicians to address their needs. Think about how many basic needs the government is now promising to deliver effectively. The lowest elements on Maslow's human needs ladder are: air, water, food, sleep (the next rung is security, stability). The Constitution addresses security. And now we see the government with their hands in air quality, water delivery food growth regulation. It is just a matter of time before Congress meddles in these affairs to the point where citizens are deprived of these elements. It will be a painful period in our history when these deficiencies all come to a confluence, but will mark a significant turning point as well.

[Demsey]

Agree with your synopsis, but, all we have is our 'vote' and the Bill of Rights to turn things around. If we cannot turn this around with those, then what? Pitch forks and another American Revolution?

Radical. Let's hope it falls short of that.

[fat.tail.event]

I am not discounting the political process and voting all together, but it is time to recognize its decreased efficiency (some cases all out failure) to deliver economic necessities. Look at the market right now...this is what it tells you. Career politicians, for too long, have relied upon inflation and credit to produce 'results'. The past two years reveal the cracks in such a foundation. This model is coming to an end, and massive bailouts only accelerate the process -- sweet irony in the current suffering. Most Americans still fail to realize that the tech bubble, housing bubble, commodities bubble are all just demon spawn from the mother credit bubble of them all - US govt borrowing. The founding fathers never intended for there to be career politicians solving our economic woes. You went back to your farm or other profession after you served your country for your term or two. You eliminate the moral hazard because you arrive for a short period and DO WHAT'S RIGHT, not worry about the next election.

Banks are the new utilities of the 21st century. Turns out commercial banks were levered more than hedge funds and will be in the penalty box for some time to come. The government is here to help with this process. Thus, the relatively unregulated pools of capital (hedge funds, private partnerships) and offshore funds (sovereign wealth funds) will pull the strings on the other side of this disaster. Think you can control them through regulation too? And always remember...regulations and regulators are only worth what was learned in the LAST crisis. Finance and markets move faster than them. Slow us down too much and capital (and the tax revenues that come with it) will just leave.

It will be the people and entities that saved (and preserved) over the last decade who will be the kings of finance and their own economic destiny for the next decade. Our last two presidents have implored that you spend. Finance ministers are doing everything they can to create a lending nirvana right now. The people who ignore them will be better off.

The silver lining...once things get bad enough I really do hope we see the welcomed collapse back into our communities and families to help cope with the economic stresses we will face. Whether it be farming co-ops, neighborhoods combining resources to become more efficient, etc. I think we will see a new generation of parents and children living together for the long term, not just the post college, pre death stopovers we see now. You never know...

Agree with your synopsis, but, all we have is our 'vote' and the Bill of Rights to turn things around. If we cannot turn this around with those, then what? Pitch forks and another American Revolution?

Radical. Let's hope it falls short of that.

[Demsey]

Another great post.

The silver lining...once things get bad enough I really do hope we see the welcomed collapse back into our communities and families to help cope with the economic stresses we will face. Whether it be farming co-ops, neighborhoods combining resources to become more efficient, etc. I think we will see a new generation of parents and children living together for the long term, not just the post college, pre death stopovers we see now. You never know...

Sounds like the post WWII daydream my Dad talks about. And talked about. When we were kids. Sounds nice. He always reminisces about the 50's. Feeling bad that we would never know a decade like that. Joining the Air Force. Living on cash, always having enough, even though they were paid meagerly. A 'new' car was an 'used' car, and they were so excited. The week-end was a beer in a lawn chair and a baseball game on a transistor radio. A trip to Europe was a 'once in a lifetime' event. My wife and kids go to Britain every Summer. Phooey!.

You know, I'm going to love this. All those' "Oh honey, could we?, Dad can I?, Would it be possible to?, The Anderson's are, are we?, I saw the new one, it's bigger! These are shabby, I saw a catalogue do you think.........? For Spring Break I was thinking....................

NO! WE'RE ALL PAINTING THE HOUSE THIS SPRING! IT'LL BE GREAT! WE'LL SET UP THE GARDEN SPRINKLER AND GRILL HOT DOGS!

"Economic Depression", a married man's little gift from the politically irresponsible.

Anyhoo, I just have to say; it's starting. The constituency is grumbling. The President is going to be thrown under the bus. Sigh. They all go:

"Hey, I was all into "Change", but wow, I never voted for all this Socialist cr*p!"

Some jack*ss on talk radio started a new slogan as a stab at the Bush era detractors; "Obama lied, the Economy died".

WHAT!?

The man is doing precisely what he said he would do what and campaigned for! To the LETTER!

That clown 'Cramer' on CNBC called McCain out on the campaign trail as an economic despoiler that would put the economy exactly where it is today, and now he's chumming up to Rush Limbaugh because the two of them are on the "White House Hit List" (WTF that is) for down playing the adminstration's policies? Ho! Ho! At least that's Limbaugh's job descritption. He called all this last Summer. Cramer, the Liberal Democrat, couldn't wait for O. Now he stands all up in arms that Obama is more 'Left' than 'Center'? Jesus! Obama was painted in no uncertain terms as the most Liberal Senator by voting record that ever drew a breath! Were they all that hypnotized?

"Yes We Can" and he DID! LMAO

The two basic human tragedies in this world; "Not getting what you ask for, and then, getting what you ask for."

Edited March 5, 2009 by Demsey

[fat.tail.event]

Yes We Can...what fools subscribe to this

"Yes We Can" has been masquerading as "YES I CAN" since the phrase was coined.

Pure narcissism I tell you, and you got to witness the human embodiement of such narcissism at the highest level of government during the Faux State of the Union...thats right, Nacy Pelosi. She had no problem disgracing the office of the President just so she could pat herself on the back for all the Treasury bonds she'll be responsible for issuing.

"Yes We Can" and he DID! LMAO

[AllergyDoc]

Bank of America took out a full page ad, color, in today's local paper. Here's part of it:

"In the fourth quarter alone, we extended more than $115 billion in new credit.

We began a 10-year, $1.5 trillion investment in low-to-moderate income and minority communities--the largest initiative of its kind in America.

We are also investing $20 billion in environmental initiatives to encourage sustainable business practices over the next decade."

I don't think they've learned anything.

[fat.tail.event]

Bank of America took out a full page ad, color, in today's local paper. Here's part of it:

"In the fourth quarter alone, we extended more than $115 billion in new credit.

We began a 10-year, $1.5 trillion investment in low-to-moderate income and minority communities--the largest initiative of its kind in America.

We are also investing $20 billion in environmental initiatives to encourage sustainable business practices over the next decade."

I don't think they've learned anything.

Your paper's editors failed to make the following revisions...

"In the fourth quarter alone, YOU extended more than $115 billion in new credit.

WE THE PEOPLE began a 10-year, $1.5 trillion investment in low-to-moderate income and minority communities--the largest initiative of its kind in America.

THE SOCIAL SECURITY TRUST has been reduced by $20 billion to implement environmental initiatives and encourage sustainable business practices over the next decade."

[Demsey]

lol this is a post from a blog I subscribe to. I would link the site, but it would probably result in a 'ban' from RWG

I have to admit it, my liberal friends were right!

They told me if I voted for McCain, the nation's Hope would deteriorate, and sure enough there has been a 20 point drop in the Consumer Confidence Index since the election, reaching a lower point than any time during the Bush administration.

They told me if I voted for McCain, the US would become more deeply embroiled in the Middle East, and sure enough tens of thousands of additional troops are scheduled to be deployed into Afghanistan.

They told me if I voted for McCain, that the economy would get worse and sure enough unemployment is approaching 8.8% and the new stimulus packages implemented recently have sent the stock market lower than at any time since 9-11.

They told me if I voted for McCain, we would see more "crooks" in high ranking positions in Federal Government and sure enough, several recent cabinet nominees and Senate appointments revealed resumes of bribery and tax fraud.

Well I ignored my Democrat friends in November and voted for McCain, and they were right - all of their predictions have come true!

Everyone loves irony, but no one wants to pay for it.

[dluddy]

I resemble that remark - could've been my Blog post

[Demsey]

I resemble that remark - could've been my Blog post

Oh, are you 'bigblackPAM69' on that 'other' board?

[dluddy]

Nah, but I follow the logic....

All this "Change" going on but I haven't changed my Nic

[Demsey]

Here's the analogy;

The 'man' is any US citizen, the 'blue truck' is the US economy, the 'red train' is the 'governmental policy with regard to the current crisis'. Are we sitting comfortably? Good. Let's watch, shall we?