Very interesting thread. I don't have the answer to the original question, but still I'd like to offer my perspective from the branding business.
More important than a brand or product, is the question every human is subconsciously asking himself (often without being aware of it). This question is "who am I". Brands and products help people answer that question - to themselves and to others.
I think Panerai's initial (1990's) appeal was that it was simple, bold, manly and had a kind of warrior aura to it. However many brands have exactly these specs. At the core of Panerai's appeal however, was uniqueness (mainly because of the crown guard). Also, the brand was new YET had a solid history.
In my opinion, people who fought the first Panerai wave were independent people who felt special. People who didn't follow the herd.
Maybe the core driver of the Panerai brand doesn't exist anymore. Rather, the opposite is the case. If you get a Panerai, you do follow.
So maybe a person asking "who am I" won't look to Panerai for answer his question.
I'm fully aware that this logic doesn't apply to the majority of the consumers, but changes start somewhere, and I feel that Panerai's lack of ability to answer "who am I" is the tip of the ice berg.
That said, I believe Panerai will thrive for many years. Without the buzz and the energy. It would be - theoretically at least - impossible for any brand in any category to maintain their vitality and comparing to Rolex is impossible because Rolex was built under totally different circumstances.
Just my 2 cents:-) MG