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Gold for $10000/oz; yes or no?


BrianSW510

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Nobody knows. There are many houses of cards both here and abroad. And how this might ultimately play out is certainly subject to debate, but I'm hard pressed to find the silver lining in all this debt right now.

Schiff, BTW, did not say $10k/oz *this year* as they joked at the end of that clip. $10k/oz is undoubtedly a ways down the line, if at all...

EDIT: I should also point out that Schiff has also been wrong in predictions, just as he's been right. And at all times when listening to him, one should keep in mind that he owns a brokerage. So there's always an underlying sales pitch (not that this necessarily invalidates his commentary). And previously his brokerage's play in precious metals was primarily in mining stocks and Perth Mint gold certs, but now I do believe he also sells (and profits from selling) bullion as well.

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Mmm, vintage. Nice stuff R!

I started buying gold in '01 and made my last big buy in late '08 when I picked up a bunch of these. Just plain ole bullion to toss on the stack. I don't have anything collectible...

08eagle.jpg

At that time in 2008, bing.com was giving 20% back on EBay gold purchases up to a cap, so I maxed out 3 accounts... 'twas the only time I've ever paid well below spot. And prices had dipped a bit, so I unloaded a few more dollars then as well. I'd like to see another dip at this point in order to initiate another buy, but even without one I'm fairly confident it'll fare better than dollars and I'm itching to buy more.

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:) I'd have to say, chief... I've been bitten by the gold bug as well. I'm looking forward to stocking up a bit more also. Wish I would have started as early as you, but I figure better late than never...

I'm using it a long term hold... And I hope dollars are still being accepted by the time my kids head off to college. Because although tuition prices have skyrocketed in terms of dollars since my days in school (eons ago), it takes significantly less gold to buy a year of tuition now than it did back then. :)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just be careful where ever you put your money, and beware Pump n Dump artists who will always try to unload what they have to You when they know it's already close to the top of it's market.

This includes almost any media finance talking head. They are trying to pump something or decimate something (if they have shorts)

All those TV commercials airing now shouting about owning gold ... it's not that they want to help you make your "Million" ... they simply have gold that they want to sell you. Probably bought from people unloading old wedding rings to "sell it for cash dot com"

Gold was $1800 USD (adjusted) an ounce back in 1980, too .. guess what? It crashed right back down to $300 ... gold pricing reflects the fear in the global economy .. it's not a slow steady climb to the clouds. Who can predict future events? No one.

Lovely coins, btw, Ubi.

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Except that your $300 figure (mid '82 as I recall) is unadjusted. So the comparison should be $850 in 1980 down to $300 in '82 (both unadjusted) before climbing back up. But, in 1980, gold was overvalued also. It was a rare time in history where gold and the Dow were priced 1:1, and the state of the economy looked nothing even close to resembling what it does today. Since that time we've seen an inordinate amount of inflation as Greenspan started unabashedly using it as a tool to manage the rapidly increasing debts during Reagan's tenure in the mid 80's. And from that point forward the flood gates were opened, to the extent that the formula for calculating "headline inflation" even needed to be finagled to hide the truth - making the dollar adjusted pricing for anything from 30 years ago compared to today totally bogus. So it's a completely different ballgame in 2010. And first and foremost, gold is now a store of value. It has been since the late 90s. Not necessarily one that is entirely immune to speculative runups and corrections, for sure. But the dollar value of gold at any particular instant is pretty irrelevant now. Purchasing power is the key. And it'll be a cold day in hell when the purchasing power of the US dollar overtakes that of gold the way we're going.

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Warren Buffett emphasized the non-productive aspect of a gold standard for the USD in 1998 at Harvard:

It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.

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Warren Buffett emphasized the non-productive aspect of a gold standard for the USD in 1998 at Harvard:

It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.

A gold standard isn't about productivity. It's about fiscal and monetary discipline. But, of course, a gold standard would keep a lot of Warren Buffet's investments at bay too. It's not in Warren Buffet's best interest. What might Jim Rogers or Marc Faber have to say about a gold standard though?

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Hi CT ~ The NYCE lists the commodities price for gold in 2001 as ~$300 adjusted. That's the figure I was quoting. The Super-spike in gold prices Reagan created in the early 1980s with his anti-Soviet rhetoric faded and faded until it hit bottom in 2001.

Gold prices are fear based.

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Hi CT ~ The NYCE lists the commodities price for gold in 2001 as ~$300 adjusted. That's the figure I was quoting. The Super-spike in gold prices Reagan created in the early 1980s with his anti-Soviet rhetoric faded and faded until it hit bottom in 2001.

Gold prices are fear based.

OK, now you're simply talking nonsense. Sorry to be blunt. But the run-up in gold pricing started in late '79, about an entire year prior to Reagan, was caused by the Carter era stagflation, and peaked just as Reagan entered office. The sharp decline in gold prices shortly after Reagan took over can be attributed to the Fed Chair Paul Volcker's aggressive interest rate hikes implemented to combat the raging inflation Reagan inherited. (The best move by any Fed Chair in my lifetime by the way). Come 2001, the Fed had inflated an unprecedented stock market bubble, which had caused money to flow out of other asset classes such as commodities. But then, subsequent to the boom and inevitable crash, came artificially low (and negative in real terms) interest rates accompanied by ..... you guessed it - rising gold prices (and an absurd housing bubble to boot). The housing bubble of course went by the wayside, as expected, but gold (i.e. real money) has stayed strong and for good reason as nominal interest rates were brought to zero. So, rhetoric and fear doesn't drive asset prices to the extent you'd like to claim. Over the last 30 years, commodity prices in dollars have been driven by market forces, and more importantly by distortions in market forces which have been caused by a loosey goosey Federal Reserve... which brings us to today. Is gold somewhat overvalued now? Probably so, yes. And I would suggest that anyone buying gold today should be willing to ride out a 25% or more decline. But at the same time, you can almost bank on interest rates remaining artificially low for the foreseeable and our currency being perpetually debased... so, logically, where would you rather be? Paper money or gold...

BASE_Max_630_378.png

:shock::shock::shock: It's the GOLD chart that concerns you? Hmmm.......

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You can be blunt with me anytime, and there wouldn't be a need to apologize. Discussion is discussion.

While obviously you are a student of finance and investment, I was simply speaking from experience. Altho I have never determined if the avatar you use is actually you, I assume it is, and can state that I was about your age when RR was President and it was obvious to me at the time, as it is now, that the (almost) All-Time low for US/Soviet relations he created drove a Global wave of fear and doubt which magnified the price of gold well out of step with reality.

It's my opinion that the current "War" the US, and it's Allies are entangled in with nebulous global terror groups is doing the exact same thing.

Sometimes it's not all the little issues but the major issue which shapes an outcome.

If the oil is low in my car's engine, one of it's tires is a bit over-filled, it hasn't been washed in a week and half a Pop-Tart is on the floor in the back seat, I'm still fairly certain that it's wrecked because I hit a tree at 30MPH ..

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