Future Of This Board Is In Danger

[sam_tgg]

There is one topic about German custons been more difficult right now.

What I want to say it is, or this world, our rep world, starts to be more seriuos, more "low profile" or we will have problems. Specially the boards, and the people that are directing them.

I understand what customs make: is its work. And I understand that companies are starting to make effords to stop us. Brands like PAM will start to loss people if the actual reps start to be "vox populi". The are not offering in most of their watches special technology or materials. They do not have diamonds or things like that. They sell unique pieces: 500, 1000, 2000 pieces. At the level our friends in China are going, and the number they can start to sell them, no one will buy a gen PAM. Because it will be no more exclusive. And brands know it.

Why to buy a gen Tag Link, if you can have a rep, 99% with ETA 7750 for 500-600 euros? I wont. A lot of people wont. And they will start to loss money.

If I am a brand like IWC, Panerai, Tag, I will start to make a lot of pressure to defend my business. There is a lot of people that is selling these reps in Ebay, trying to be gens. In the past, they were sold to people with few idea. But with the actual reps, you can sell a Tag Link without problem. And a lot of people do that. Included people that come to this board.

Another generation of buyers is going out there telling (including gen boards and ADs) "why to spend 5000 euros in a gen IWC when you can have one for 250?!! You are stupit jajajaj!!!". Very intelligent.

The Zigmeister post a very intersant post about the future of the reps. The conclusion is: the level is improving, and the new reps are aweson. That is right. But I say: with this, also come that, possible in this year, the people of this boards (and other boards) will start to have legal problems.

[bruce79]

So what you're saying is get 'em while you still can, sound advice.

[gioarmani]

I think that's mostly incorrect, with all respect.

There have always been people who can afford both reps and gens, and people who will only buy reps because they can't afford gens. The same way there will always be people who can afford both, but would never "waste" money on a gen, or those who would only own gens, because to be seen with a rep would be tacky and classless--regardless of how good the quality of reps has become.

We in the west (and those becoming "Westernized") live in an age of style over substance; plain and simple. To think that the better reps get, the less likely the general populous will be to purchase gens is an improbability and an equivocation.

Low end, less expensive quasi-luxury cars are built much better than they were 10 or 15 years ago, as far as reliability & mechanical longevity are concerned, but that in no way means the market for the 7 series & S class is going to wither away. In fact just the opposite; for instance, you can easily go down and snap up a 25k "European sports-car" like the Mini Cooper--with a turbo BMW engine, Euro-engineered, and a car that will outgun the 911 from 0-60, etc., etc--instead of spending twice as much on the same engine in a 3 or 5 series. Yet, there are more top-of-the-line luxury cars on the roads than ever.

A luxury item like a nice car or a nice watch isn't bought for monetary practicality; it's either bought purely for the status symbol, or an appreciation for the "finer" things in life (i.e., a gen's artistry or craftsmanship).

The same goes for most luxury goods, including watches. Look at the simple sales figures in dollars (or units alone) for almost all high-end brands, and they've done nothing but go up over the past few years--even as reps have improved dramatically. Rolex, Omega, Panerai, Breitling--we've never seen better reps, and yet these companies have never seen better sales. And yet there are supposedly 20 rep Rollies for every gen you see on the wrist. Companies like Rolex have such a demand for their products, most aren't in stock or are on waiting lists that suckers will willingly fork over three times MSRP with a smile, just to get one on their wrist. They only put pressure on the counterfeiters for good PR & sales tactics. A friend at Louis Vuitton in Tampa says for every 100 LVs you see on shoulders, maybe one or two of them are gens; you can go practically anywhere on the planet and find an LV rep, and yet she still can't keep her merchandise on the shelf. $300 keychains, $2000 purses, $900 wallets, and most of it's on indefinite back-order. Like Rolex, Louis never has a sale--their prices only increase exponentially.

A self-perpetuating cycle of style over substance. And you know what--they'll keep on buyin'.

[marrickvilleboy]

....tahnks fro the wraning.....

i ddin't udnersatnd mcuh...haha

[crystalcranium]

The VAST majority of counterfeit watches produced in china are cheap replicas of Rolex watches. The fact that Rolex doesn't give a damn about the production of these watches is evidenced by the street vendors around the corner from Rolex USA's corporate headquarters in New York selling fakes out in the open. These watches are produced in the hundred of thousands...if not millions, and are percieved as a flattering annoyance by the big R. I don think other companies like PP and AP and GP give a damn about the medocre quality replicas produced in small numbers either.

The watches we talk about here are pretty rarified air. None of these watches are going to be mistaken for a forgery...any jewelry store that gets taken because they don't open the case and see the very obvious differences is run by fools, but they are, some of them, very good...and very small in number. No one is going to start pounding the drum loudly to shut down the counterfeit business and trade because 10,000 Tag link Chronos have shown up in the world and they are very, very good fakes.

The watch world will not be the cause of the big changes in IP violation policy in the coming years...but they will probably be swept up in it. The olympics, China's ever increasing desire to be a legitimate world economic superpower, cheaper and better scanning technologies..etc all will contribute to the eventual difficulties we'll see in obtaining fake watches...but don't fool yourself that your "Perfectmariner" is the catylist.

A thread like this shows up once every 3 months here. I think the genesis is that we can't believe some of the things we get away with. Enjoy and relax

[sam_tgg]

Gioarmani, what you say it could be logic, but is not the reallity: in Englad, brands like Ralph Laurent, Polo, etc, have started to reduce the display of it logo in its own hirts, cups and so on, beacuse it is a trend for "hip hop" boys to have something of this brand. They sell more in the "low side" but they started to loos customers in the high side.

"Low end, less expensive quasi-luxury cars are built much better than they were 10 or 15 years ago, as far as reliability & mechanical longevity are concerned, but that in no way means the market for the 7 series & S class is going to wither away. In fact just the opposite; for instance, you can easily go down and snap up a 25k "European sports-car" like the Mini Cooper--with a turbo BMW engine, Euro-engineered, and a car that will outgun the 911 from 0-60, etc., etc--instead of spending twice as much on the same engine in a 3 or 5 series. Yet, there are more top-of-the-line luxury cars on the roads than ever."

Do you think the quality of a Peugeot is better now than 10 years ago? Forget it. It gives more things, but not more quality. A car 15 years ago was planned to work 10 years. Not now. The development of a car was 5 years. Now 3. The materials were much better. Now are plastics. I work in Stuttgart in an american supplier (one of the 10 biggest) and we supplie all brands. the mechanical longevity is not a concern. The electronic yes (especially integration).

Second. The mini. Outgan the 911 Carrera? What do you say? Ah, for your info, the new version of the Mini, it is not produced anymore and engineered by BWM. No. It is all external make (well, not complette, but most of it).

The quality of a Porsche, is thousend miles away from a Opel. I have projects righ now, for Porsche, Audi (Ingolstadt), DCx and Opel-GM (Russelsheim). You can belive what you want, it is no my problem. Or, you can belive what the companies, the newpapers and the "informed" reviews say. But I now how they work, and how what I sell to them.

The same happend with Porsche (I work with them): they have fix numbers and they do not whant to sell "lower" level autos. Because they loss the exclusivity. Daimler, started the C-Class at "low level" car. they sell a lot, but their premium cars lost value.

What will happend if companies like PAM, that sells 100 or so on 082, find that in the market, is a 90% rep (I mean Davidsen), for 380$?? Do you want to have it?

"The same goes for most luxury goods, including watches. Look at the simple sales figures in dollars (or units alone) for almost all high-end brands, and they've done nothing but go up over the past few years--even as reps have improved dramatically. Rolex, Omega, Panerai, Breitling--we've never seen better reps, and yet these companies have never seen better sales. And yet there are supposedly 20 rep Rollies for every gen you see on the wrist. Companies like Rolex have such a demand for their products, most aren't in stock or are on waiting lists that suckers will willingly fork over three times MSRP with a smile, just to get one on their wrist. They only put pressure on the counterfeiters for good PR & sales tactics. A friend at Louis Vuitton in Tampa says for every 100 LVs you see on shoulders, maybe one or two of them are gens; you can go practically anywhere on the planet and find an LV rep, and yet she still can't keep her merchandise on the shelf. $300 keychains, $2000 purses, $900 wallets, and most of it's on indefinite back-order."

Sure? The Film makers, and the Music companies are making increible numbers. But they are fighting the music downloads, emule, torrent, etc, like crazy. Why? Because they want more. It is easy. And because if you let go, and go, and go the reps, may be in the future, you can not stop it.

That is my 2 cents

[sam_tgg]

....tahnks fro the wraning.....

i ddin't udnersatnd mcuh...haha

Do you not like my English? Do you want me to start to talk in Spanish, or German? May be yuo likke itt mmmorree

[sam_tgg]

Ah, undertand me well: I am not the one that will recieve a letter asking why I have a board "helping" to sell counterfait products. They are the people here. They are making a fantastic service to this comunity, but if we have not a "low profile", one day this letter will come.

[gioarmani]

I doubt that will ever be a serious likelihood. I question whether this is even appropriate to be discussed; it's only going to cause the worrisome unnecessary fear, and fuel ridiculous rumors.

It already sounds over-dramatic & speculative:

Ah, undertand me well: I am not the one that will recieve a letter asking why I have a board "helping" to sell counterfait products. They are the people here. They are making a fantastic service to this comunity, but if we have not a "low profile", one day this letter will come.

If it does arise, the board can simply find some off-shore servers in international water.

[uziuzi]

Geeez, guys, this is a total paradox: You guys are talking about how talking about something can turn into a problem. Lets stop talking, its the only way.

[gioarmani]

Gioarmani, what you say it could be logic, but is not the reallity: in Englad, brands like Ralph Laurent, Polo, etc, have started to reduce the display of it logo in its own hirts, cups and so on, beacuse it is a trend for "hip hop" boys to have something of this brand. They sell more in the "low side" but they started to loos customers in the high side.

"Low end, less expensive quasi-luxury cars are built much better than they were 10 or 15 years ago, as far as reliability & mechanical longevity are concerned, but that in no way means the market for the 7 series & S class is going to wither away. In fact just the opposite; for instance, you can easily go down and snap up a 25k "European sports-car" like the Mini Cooper--with a turbo BMW engine, Euro-engineered, and a car that will outgun the 911 from 0-60, etc., etc--instead of spending twice as much on the same engine in a 3 or 5 series. Yet, there are more top-of-the-line luxury cars on the roads than ever."

Do you think the quality of a Peugeot is better now than 10 years ago? Forget it. It gives more things, but not more quality. A car 15 years ago was planned to work 10 years. Not now. The development of a car was 5 years. Now 3. The materials were much better. Now are plastics. I work in Stuttgart in an american supplier (one of the 10 biggest) and we supplie all brands. the mechanical longevity is not a concern. The electronic yes (especially integration).

Second. The mini. Outgan the 911 Carrera? What do you say? Ah, for your info, the new version of the Mini, it is not produced anymore and engineered by BWM. No. It is all external make (well, not complette, but most of it).

The quality of a Porsche, is thousend miles away from a Opel. I have projects righ now, for Porsche, Audi (Ingolstadt), DCx and Opel-GM (Russelsheim). You can belive what you want, it is no my problem. Or, you can belive what the companies, the newpapers and the "informed" reviews say. But I now how they work, and how what I sell to them.

The same happend with Porsche (I work with them): they have fix numbers and they do not whant to sell "lower" level autos. Because they loss the exclusivity. Daimler, started the C-Class at "low level" car. they sell a lot, but their premium cars lost value.

What will happend if companies like PAM, that sells 100 or so on 082, find that in the market, is a 90% rep (I mean Davidsen), for 380$?? Do you want to have it?

"The same goes for most luxury goods, including watches. Look at the simple sales figures in dollars (or units alone) for almost all high-end brands, and they've done nothing but go up over the past few years--even as reps have improved dramatically. Rolex, Omega, Panerai, Breitling--we've never seen better reps, and yet these companies have never seen better sales. And yet there are supposedly 20 rep Rollies for every gen you see on the wrist. Companies like Rolex have such a demand for their products, most aren't in stock or are on waiting lists that suckers will willingly fork over three times MSRP with a smile, just to get one on their wrist. They only put pressure on the counterfeiters for good PR & sales tactics. A friend at Louis Vuitton in Tampa says for every 100 LVs you see on shoulders, maybe one or two of them are gens; you can go practically anywhere on the planet and find an LV rep, and yet she still can't keep her merchandise on the shelf. $300 keychains, $2000 purses, $900 wallets, and most of it's on indefinite back-order."

Sure? The Film makers, and the Music companies are making increible numbers. But they are fighting the music downloads, emule, torrent, etc, like crazy. Why? Because they want more. It is easy. And because if you let go, and go, and go the reps, may be in the future, you can not stop it.

That is my 2 cents

Your opinion and two-cents are well understood and respected, but a lot of what you're arguing here is technically meaningless tangent & irrelevant trivia, that's distracting from the actual point.

My point was to illustrate the simple fact that gen sales have not--and are not--going to decrease because of any direct correlation to the quality of reps. There is also no direct correlation between the quality of reps and this (or any) board getting a threatening letter from Geneva.

And who on Earth with any taste has thought Polo on the "high side" since 1987? That's for the same people who still think that Hillfiger is staus sysmbol.

[sam_tgg]

Yes, sure? And, how will be the guy/guys that will do it? You?

When in Spain the layers started to send letters to the owners of Emule download webs, most of then closed. Why? Fear.

What will you do if you recieved a letter from Rolex Group?

The owners of this board do not earn a dolar. They give their work and sometimes their money. Who will make another board, give their time, suffer a lot of problems, suffer a lot of stupit people (remenber the posts of the board owners)???

It is "I doubt that will ever be a serious likelihood. I question whether this is even appropriate to be discussed; it's only going to cause the worrisome unnecessary fear, and fuel ridiculous rumors.". OK. May be.

More, I think the best method is..... say nothing, and let the next dumbass go the Rolex aD, and say "look my rep. It is just 300$." "Increible, where did you find it?" "internet".

OK... Ah, that is not "fiction". That happend... more than once.

[triplehd]

More, I think the best method is..... say nothing, and let the next dumbass go the Rolex aD, and say "look my rep. It is just 300$." "Increible, where did you find it?" "internet".

What if we tell them it's from replicacenter.com ?

[gioarmani]

*sigh*

[TwoTone]

This is an "Old" argument [conversation]...

Gen's will survive...

Rep's will survive...

The Boards will survive...

TT

[Guest TTK]

people want the flash...without spending the cash....simple...where there's a demand...there will always be a supply....!

@sam....your analogy with eMule doesn't hold water....there's a significant difference bewteen someone who downloads a CD or DVD or OS software....evrey download is a sale lost...that's why the big purges on illegal 'software' vendors.......that's not the case with replica watches.....the people who can afford genuine watches....in most instances are unaware of the quality available nowadays....holding the old belief that they turn your wrist green etc etc.....and anyone who nurtures the desire to own a genuine Sub or whatever won't let themselves be swayed by any fake......only the people who either can't afford genuine or have learned they can have something nice on their wrist for not a lot of money.....buy fakes......no loss to R---x.....it will still sell it's yearly production.

Edited January 18, 2007 by TTK

[sam_tgg]

What if we tell them it's from replicacenter.com ?

Well, it is a possibility

[eddhead]

I think that's mostly incorrect, with all respect.

There have always been people who can afford both reps and gens, and people who will only buy reps because they can't afford gens. The same way there will always be people who can afford both, but would never "waste" money on a gen, or those who would only own gens, because to be seen with a rep would be tacky and classless--regardless of how good the quality of reps has become.

We in the west (and those becoming "Westernized") live in an age of style over substance; plain and simple. To think that the better reps get, the less likely the general populous will be to purchase gens is an improbability and an equivocation.

Low end, less expensive quasi-luxury cars are built much better than they were 10 or 15 years ago, as far as reliability & mechanical longevity are concerned, but that in no way means the market for the 7 series & S class is going to wither away. In fact just the opposite; for instance, you can easily go down and snap up a 25k "European sports-car" like the Mini Cooper--with a turbo BMW engine, Euro-engineered, and a car that will outgun the 911 from 0-60, etc., etc--instead of spending twice as much on the same engine in a 3 or 5 series. Yet, there are more top-of-the-line luxury cars on the roads than ever.

A luxury item like a nice car or a nice watch isn't bought for monetary practicality; it's either bought purely for the status symbol, or an appreciation for the "finer" things in life (i.e., a gen's artistry or craftsmanship).

The same goes for most luxury goods, including watches. Look at the simple sales figures in dollars (or units alone) for almost all high-end brands, and they've done nothing but go up over the past few years--even as reps have improved dramatically. Rolex, Omega, Panerai, Breitling--we've never seen better reps, and yet these companies have never seen better sales. And yet there are supposedly 20 rep Rollies for every gen you see on the wrist. Companies like Rolex have such a demand for their products, most aren't in stock or are on waiting lists that suckers will willingly fork over three times MSRP with a smile, just to get one on their wrist. They only put pressure on the counterfeiters for good PR & sales tactics. A friend at Louis Vuitton in Tampa says for every 100 LVs you see on shoulders, maybe one or two of them are gens; you can go practically anywhere on the planet and find an LV rep, and yet she still can't keep her merchandise on the shelf. $300 keychains, $2000 purses, $900 wallets, and most of it's on indefinite back-order. Like Rolex, Louis never has a sale--their prices only increase exponentially.

A self-perpetuating cycle of style over substance. And you know what--they'll keep on buyin'.

I think you have some valid points, especially with respect to the self perpetuating life style of the shallow and aimless (hello) but I am not sure I agree with your conclusions on the potential effect this may have on our little hobby. IMO, luxury brands like Rolex and Lous whatever are quite serious about the pressure they put on counterfiters because they view them as a threat to thier most valuable asset.. their brand and their reputation. It is the same reason that prestigous companies are so anal about protecting service, trade and copyrights as well as patents. This proprietary stuff is very important to them, and they will do whatever they can to protect it. Fortunatly for the rest of us, given the global nature and distribution capability of the counterfit market, and the resources that would be required to police it, they fight an uphill battle. Just my humble opinion.

[ubiquitous]

Rolex sells every watch they make. This is true. However, this is not at the consumer level, but rather at the AD level. It's then anyone's guess if every AD sells every watch they 'buy' (I know of some who have old stock from a few years ago still in displays or in the vaults)...

[sam_tgg]

people want the flash...without spending the cash....simple...where there's a demand...there will always be a supply....!

@sam....your analoy with eMule doesn't hold water....there's a significant difference bewteen someone who downloads a CD or DVD or OS software....evrey download is a sale lost...that's why the big purges on illegal 'software' vendors.......that's not the case with replica watches.....the people who can afford genuine watches....in most instances are unaware of the quality available nowadays....holding the old belief that they turn your wrist green etc etc.....and anyone who nurtures the desire to own a genuine Sub or whatever won't let themselves be swayed by any fake......only the people who either can't afford genuine or have learned they can have something nice on their wrist for not a lot of money.....buy fakes......no loss to R---x.....it will still sell it's yearly production.

TTK, yes and not. It is not the same, but I can assure you that I download much more than really would buy.

The thing is gen brand are having two new enemies: internet and china. Internet give the possibility (new) of find fantastic reps, and not the crap that is sold in the EU cities. And China. What is coming, and will be coming is much better. In all parts of economy, China is improving so fast, that they can now produce reps, movements, everything, fast and with a fantastic quality. And even, with people like Angus, or RT, we can (may be) start a new time when we can interact with us.

Rolex is a company that do not trust internet (they no sell in internet), so they will fight everything.

Also we see more and more people making trouble with Paypal (you know it very well), writing in the parcels "replica", etc.

More and more poeple is buying in internet chinese goods, etc.

I will be always a market, always sellers (like drugs). But it could be expensive (like drugs) when it must go more and more "underworld".

[Raijor]

IMHO

Contraband in all its forms has existed through history.

A unified global effort will be needed to just reduce it. and stopping it will never be possible A unified global effort can never happen because individual countries only care about their own economic interests. For example - the U.S. has no dog in the Replica watch fight - it is almost a completely a European issue. America has pressured China respecting counterfeit items - but focusing on music and movies. If the Chinese follow traditional values it too will press forward only Chinese interests. Do the Chinese care about what Germany, France, Switzerland et al think about its economic policies ? I do not think China does. All the photos of the Chinese cracking down on replica sellers are really nothing more than publicity shots.

As for the effect of China hosting the Olympics - it will have no real impact on Chinese economic or human rights policies. The world is begging for access to the internal Chinese economy. The Chinese hold the winning hand. Push and a country is shut out at the sole discretion of China. If Europe pushes too hard on a crack down on China regarding counterfeit items the U.S., Canada, Russia, Australia, South America will use that as an opportunity to strengthen economic interests with China. If the U.S. pushes too hard regarding counterfeit movies and music other countries will use that as an opportunity to strengthen their economic ties to China. The western economies can not push China around less they lose favored trading status with China. Billions upon billions of dollars in new business are at stake in being able to do business within China and this potential dwarfs the revenue lost to counterfeits.

The world economies will never present a unified force in an effort to force the Chinese to make a real crackdown on contraband. There are just far too many disparate interests involved.

China will rule the 21st Century.

[eddhead]

people want the flash...without spending the cash....simple...where there's a demand...there will always be a supply....!

sounds like a great marketing schpiel.. "come to TTK where you get the flash... without spending the cash... (Crazy Eddie face) prices are innnnsaaannneee!!"

[eddhead]

IMHO

Contraband in all its forms has existed through history.

A unified global effort will be needed to just reduce it. and stopping it will never be possible A unified global effort can never happen because individual countries only care about their own economic interests. For example - the U.S. has no dog in the Replica watch fight - it is almost a completely a European issue. America has pressured China respecting counterfeit items - but focusing on music and movies. If the Chinese follow traditional values it too will press forward only Chinese interests. Do the Chinese care about what Germany, France, Switzerland et al think about its economic policies ? I do not think China does. All the photos of the Chinese cracking down on replica sellers are really nothing more than publicity shots.

As for the effect of China hosting the Olympics - it will have no real impact on Chinese economic or human rights policies. The world is begging for access to the internal Chinese economy. The Chinese hold the winning hand. Push and a country is shut out at the sole discretion of China. If Europe pushes too hard on a crack down on China regarding counterfeit items the U.S., Canada, Russia, Australia, South America will use that as an opportunity to strengthen economic interests with China. If the U.S. pushes too hard regarding counterfeit movies and music other countries will use that as an opportunity to strengthen their economic ties to China. The western economies can not push China around less they lose favored trading status with China. Billions upon billions of dollars in new business are at stake in being able to do business within China and this potential dwarfs the revenue lost to counterfeits.

The world economies will never present a unified force in an effort to force the Chinese to make a real crackdown on contraband. There are just far too many disparate interests involved.

China will rule the 21st Century.

IMHO, this post is spot on.

[gioarmani]

These were well worth the read:

http://www.amazon.com/China-Wakes-Struggle...TF8&s=books

http://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Jasper-Becke...TF8&s=books

[morgan]

Have you seen all the sites and shops everywhere openly selling rep bags and purses etc? How about airplane parts? Nike shoes? Watch reps are a very small part of the knock off world and will continue with little trouble.