Tragedy of the commons?

[teddy boy]

I am an economist and in economics we talk about the tragedy of the commons. A common is something that is collectively owned (i.e. a common property resource). A fishery would be an example of a common. The tragedy is that while collectively fisherman have an incentive to avoid overfishing an area, each individual fisherman has an incentive to catch as many as possible. The point is that individuals pursue their own self interest, the waters get over fished and pretty soon there aren't any fish to be caught. In other words, more than the optimal amount of fishing occurs. It's why everyone is currently out of work in New Foundland.

You can think of replica sellers' credibility as a common. Whereas the collective interest is for every seller to generally tell the truth thus leading to increased sales and increased willingness to pay, the individual self interest is to lie anytime you think it will increase the likelihood of making a sale. In other words, the incentive structure for each individual seller results in more than the optimal amount of lies. I'm not suggesting anything about the veracity of any of the sellers listed on this forum, I've never done business with any of them. I'm simply suggesting that each seller makes a decision to tell the truth or lie without regard to the damage that their actions may inflict on the credibility of all rep sellers.

[KB]

And Teddy this is in fact where the 'Little white lies' thread sprang from, only before the sellers were largely self policed to assure the Tragedy didn't occur but once it did the afore mentioned thread has made policing a communal effort.

Ken

[Pugwash]

...and while credibility took a hit, people weren't that interested in doing anything about it so we'll be heading for another tragedy soon.

[chris5264]

I know nothing about economics, but I would guess a place is in for trouble when the fishermen discover there are plenty of other places to fish.

[crystalcranium]

Unfortunately, the reaction of many was "Hey, I'm just damn happy to be here and I'll tolerate some shenanagans as long as I can keep my access." I think the next watershed event is a general disappearance of good replicas for afordable prices.

[Pugwash]

Unfortunately, the reaction of many was "Hey, I'm just damn happy to be here and I'll tolerate some shenanagans as long as I can keep my access." I think the next watershed event is a general disappearance of good replicas for afordable prices.

And we would have let it happen.

[TeeJay]

I don't think there's anything as irritating as having to say "I told you so" when pointing out that things are going off-track, being ignored, then people running round wondering why the [censored]'s hit the fan despite previous warnings...

[Richard Tracy]

...and while credibility took a hit, people weren't that interested in doing anything about it so we'll be heading for another tragedy soon.

Sad but true, as it seems that many people read only what they wanted to, which would allow

them to continue doing business as usual with their favorite dealer, despite the hit to the community at

large.

Though personally, I think the term 'Little White Lies' is part of the problem.

For instance, the major lie of calling cheap Chinese movements, ETA, and selling

them priced as ETA, is plain Thievery, nothing 'little' about the lie or the practice.

[Pix]

...and while credibility took a hit, people weren't that interested in doing anything about it so we'll be heading for another tragedy soon.

My question is : what to do ? And can a community that has no leaders be organized (I mean in general, not only talking about rep boards). And as Teddy Boy mentions, can an underground activity aim a general interest amongst a sum of individual various interests ?

I would so much like to be able to have an influence on that business. But do you think there's a way ?

[Pugwash]

Though personally, I think the term 'Little White Lies' is part of the problem.

Yes, but when I posted it at first, I was trying to be generous and to allow the dealers to save face.

If I'd have known the flak I was going to get for it from the dealers etc, I'd have used stronger language from the get go.

[crystalcranium]

My question is : what to do ? And can a community that has no leaders be organized (I mean in general, not only talking about rep boards). And as Teddy Boy mentions, can an underground activity aim a general interest amongst a sum of individual various interest ?

I would so much like to be able to have an influence on that business. But do you think there's a way ?

Let's say for argument's sake this was "Pot Heads Buying Group" and some of us were upset that our trusted dealers were making exaggerated claims about potency and quality etc. There might be merit in the point but most of the crowd is not going to take a stand and jepordize their convient access to an illegal product. I think most of the outraged here were upset on the merits of the argument and have been collecting long enough to have confidence in the availability of the marketplace but far too many were afraid of tarnishing their good names and being cut out of the game.

Bottom line is yes, we can have an influence on the business...for the better or worse. I personally think all of the enthusiasm about $400+ replicas is driving up the prices in general and we should be careful about buying. Believe me, if no one paid $400 for an IWC Cousteau...the price would come down significantly.

[Richard Tracy]

I understand Pugwash,..and my post was not pointed at you, though it would seem so..

As to what can be done,.. In my opinion, {though I know it will never happen..}

under the circumstances it would not be unfair to banish some of them from the forum,

period, placing in the place of their forums, the reasons for the action.

Why I say some of them, is it seems that one or two of the dealers seemed not to be fully

involved or have other compensating factors and have at least taken to time to respond to us,

while others or should I say other, has simply ignored us in his arrogance, just because he may

have the best put together web-site, connections to variety and fan base that it seems has

not be dimished one bit, like a thief with a high priced lawyer.

[Pugwash]

I understand Pugwash,..and my post was not pointed at you, though it would seem so..

I didn't take it as a dig, don't worry.

[teddy boy]

Unfortunately, the reaction of many was "Hey, I'm just damn happy to be here and I'll tolerate some shenanagans as long as I can keep my access." I think the next watershed event is a general disappearance of good replicas for afordable prices.

When I first started thinking in terms of the tragedy of the commons, I believed that the scam sellers hurt the more legitimate rep dealers. Now I'm not so sure. All of us have seen the websites for the scam sellers and the outrageous claims that they make (i.e. 27 jewel eta movement, reps so perfect that even the most schooled rolex jeweler can hardly tell the difference without opening the case and so forth). Many of us started looking at reps on those sites and either bought or came close to buying an $800-$1000 mistake. After being exposed to those shenigans, the "little white lies" told by the dealers who advertise here seem very tame by comparison. The level of the lies told by "our" sellers, especially after accounting for the price difference relative to the scam sellers, seems to make us feel pretty good about the whole thing. I was a political science minor in college and we used to joke about the politician standard, that is, a person was honest or dishonest relative to the average of all politicians. Have we adopted the "rep standard"? The responses to the person's question about paying for servicing when buying a rep would suggest that we have. Nobody expressed confidence that you actually get the servicing, but all of us have a seller or sellers that we buy from. In other words, I didn't see anyone step up and say "I trust so and so to make sure that the servicing is completed". Nevertheless, we do all have a seller we buy from.

There is one more element here; the fact that all of us have displayed a certain willingness to accept risk by buying a product that is illegal to sell. Given that fact, maybe at times we're just grateful to get anything at all after we've paid our hard earned money.

[Richard Tracy]

Hate to disagree Teddy,.. the price between cheap Chinese

movements being sold as Eta, is as bad as any off site dealer's

three card monte scam...

Thievery is thievery and makes it all the worse when done to a group that

has been supporting them, from day one,..and gave them their base to spring

into the big time..

[Pugwash]

In other words, I didn't see anyone step up and say "I trust so and so to make sure that the servicing is completed". Nevertheless, we do all have a seller we buy from.

I only buy from dealers I know will sell me what they tell me they will sell me. This means that the dealer is up front and honest with me and I know that I will get what I am paying for.

One dealer on this very board stated that he would not offer services because he knows that the people that he'd get to do the servicing would short-change him and there would be no way of checking up. He's being honest and up front.

[teddy boy]

I only buy from dealers I know will sell me what they tell me they will sell me. This means that the dealer is up front and honest with me and I know that I will get what I am paying for.

One dealer on this very board stated that he would not offer services because he knows that the people that he'd get to do the servicing would short-change him and there would be no way of checking up. He's being honest and up front.

Pugwash, would it be inappropriate for me to ask who you deal with? If I'm committing some terrible faux pas by asking, I apologize. I have a regular dealer and think he's always done right by me. However, I've learned some things about him since I've found this forum that make me a little uneasy. The reason that I ask is that I'm going to be in the market for a rep very very soon.

[Pugwash]

Pugwash, would it be inappropriate for me to ask who you deal with?

This info is easily findable in my many, many posts on the subject. Still, if you're having difficulty trawling through them, TTK, Narikaa, Precious Time and Silix are the dealers I've done repeat business with, if that tells you anything. I've had good dealings with others, like Sash and River, but I try to deal with EU-based dealers these days. I've had bad dealings with other dealers, and that too is freely available information available via the search feature.

Check out the "My Collection" link below for my purchasing history.

[teddy boy]

This info is easily findable in my many, many posts on the subject. Still, if you're having difficulty trawling through them, TTK, Narikaa, Precious Time and Silix are the dealers I've done repeat business with, if that tells you anything. I've had good dealings with others, like Sash and River, but I try to deal with EU-based dealers these days. I've had bad dealings with other dealers, and that too is freely available information available via the search feature.

Check out the "My Collection" link below for my purchasing history.

Thanks, I trolled all of the dealer ratings forums looking for a posting by you before I asked, but didn't see any postings from you. Too much time has probably elapsed for your posts to be on the first page of these forums.

I had been leaning toward Silix for my next purchase for a variety of reasons. It's good to get confirmation that I'm not making a stupid choice. Thanks again.

[teddy boy]

Hate to disagree Teddy,.. the price between cheap Chinese

movements being sold as Eta, is as bad as any off site dealer's

three card monte scam...

Thievery is thievery and makes it all the worse when done to a group that

has been supporting them, from day one,..and gave them their base to spring

into the big time..

Richard, I wasn't really trying to condone the practice as much as understand why we seem to accept it. I think the "more honest by comparison" point may be a partial explanation, although I'm sure there are other explanations as well.

[Pugwash]

It's good to get confirmation that I'm not making a stupid choice. Thanks again.

Just because I have bought a few watches from a dealer doesn't mean that it's not a stupid choice.

ps. It's not a stupid choice.

[r11co]

Have we adopted the "rep standard"? The responses to the person's question about paying for servicing when buying a rep would suggest that we have. Nobody expressed confidence that you actually get the servicing, but all of us have a seller or sellers that we buy from. In other words, I didn't see anyone step up and say "I trust so and so to make sure that the servicing is completed". Nevertheless, we do all have a seller we buy from.

You are very insightful TB, if not a little controversial, and I suspect many respondants are being intentionally circumspect with their replies to your points. I think you've hit the nail on the head.

Just this morning (before reading this thread) I was thinking how annoyed I am at my most recent experience with a dealer I have used often and praised highly in the past. An order I placed over a month ago and paid for instantly still had not arrived by the middle of last week. I sent a 'jolly reminder' to said dealer who confirmed the order had not even been prepared or sent out - I felt they were taking the [censored] a little, relaxing the quality of their service to me as they have gained my trust and respect.

I won't say much more, but this was piled on top of another disappointment from same dealer after promises were made and much assistance was given with a project.

No doubt my package will arrive eventually and I will feel a little better. No doubt I will order from them in the future, but I'll be on top of them a bit more next time rather than assuming I will be taken care of in the same way I was when the relationship was building.

The 'rep standard' indeed. It seems it is all relative.....

[teddy boy]

Unfortunately, the reaction of many was "Hey, I'm just damn happy to be here and I'll tolerate some shenanagans as long as I can keep my access." I think the next watershed event is a general disappearance of good replicas for afordable prices.

Crystal, it's interesting that you bring that point up because there is certainly rationale for predicting that rep quality would decline over time. This idea is routed in the concept of adverse selection, an idea developed by two economists several decades ago. They took the market for used cars as an example. For simplicity, they assumed that there were only two kinds of cars, good cars and lemons. Intitially there were equal numbers of each. Because buyers lacked information and couldn't perfectly judge whether a car was good or a lemon, the buyer was willing to pay a price that was the average value of good cars and lemons. This caused some of the sellers of good used cars to withhold their cars from the market, tilting the mix more toward lemons which caused the price to fall even more. This, in turn, caused more sellers of good cars to withhold their cars and so on. Eventually, there were only lemons in the market. The concept of adverse selection has been used to explain behavior in many different markets, notably insurance. Health insurers, for example, set a premium that reflects the average health of insured. Some healthy people tend to opt out choosing to self insure so now there are more sick people relative to healthy. This causes insurance premiums to rise, causing more heatlhy to opt out and so on. This explains why individual health insurance premiums are so high in the U.S. To a certain degree, insurers have to assume that if you buy individual health insurance, you must really need it.

If we apply this to the rep market and assume that there are good reps and bad reps, buyers are willing to pay based upon some sort of weighted average quality. That average price is too low to keep attracting sellers of high quality reps causing the mix to change more toward low quality. That causes the price to fall, causing average quality to fall again. The price that buyers are willing to pay declines, driving more sellers of high quality reps from the market and so on. Adverse selection would predict that we end up with a market comprised only of "low quality" reps. While I'm not sufficiently familiar with the workings of the rep market to say for sure that this is happening, the apparent replacement of genuine eta movements with asian copies would appear to be consistent with this trend.

Thank you for indulging the economist with his arcane theories.

[Pugwash]

While I'm not sufficiently familiar with the workings of the rep market to say for sure that this is happening, the apparent replacement of genuine eta movements with asian copies would appear to be consistent with this trend.

The switch away from ETA movements is due to people stockpiling them for ETA's planned departure from the parts market. It's a genuine shortage created by a fear of shortage.

[teddy boy]

The switch away from ETA movements is due to people stockpiling them for ETA's planned departure from the parts market. It's a genuine shortage created by a fear of shortage.

I hadn't heard about the potential shortage. The switch away from genuine eta movements is the only piece of evidence that I've seen suggesting a potential decline in quality. And now you've given an alternative explanation for that. My limited knowledge suggests that everything else points to an increase in the quality of reps. The question then becomes, with adverse selection why is this happening? This forum and the others like it are the only forces in the market that I can see driving sellers toward increasing their quality. Those of you who are more knowledgeable may be able to identify other factors.