Corgi Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Hello A few months ago I purchased a replica Panerai Luminor Power Reserve 44mm from Josh. It runs well, keeps great time and uses a very respectable and well-built 21J asian movement. I recommend this watch to anyone seeking an entry level Pan, since it has been one of my favorites. It only cost $118 and came with a neat bracelet, too. My dad actually liked the watch so much he wanted one for himself! So, yesterday I checked back to PC '88' and started searching for the watch. It couldn't be found, in fact, there were no Pan's with power reserves at that price. I thought at first the site may be broken... until I found it. The price, however, went up to 218$. I thought; 'well, it's more expensive, but with the swiss movement it will be very very reliable and even more longer lasting than the regular asian one'. Great! Then I saw that it used the same, asian, 21J movement my watch uses! Strange! So now I own a $218 watch for $118. I'm very pleased, but at the same time concerned... what if all of Josh's models will have $100 added to their price tags in the near future? Just look at his new pens... beautiful as they are, they're almost double that of his standard ones. Maybe they are superpens? Thoughts? Corg. (I didn't want to post any links but I'm sure you can find it for yourselves... just search for "PN power" [without quotes] on Josh's homesite.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratedzeus Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 LOl... josh constantly increases his prices... for long time now... a Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubiquitous Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Investment? Definitely not... Watches in general are not good investments, and shouldn't be considered as such... A rep watch wouldn't (and shouldn't) be considered an investment at all... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratedzeus Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 ETA watches might be a good investment - they will soon be discontinued Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crystalcranium Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 The only replica watch I can see being an investment is a MBW and only if access becomes much more difficult. Look what happened to the old Moonwatch that's unavailable today. It commands a premium price. Among watches, the guys are right, very difficult to predict..best you can usually count on is a watch that will retain most of its original sale value....like a Genuine Submariner or a Moonwatch. Limited Editions are a much harder call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubiquitous Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Just to stop for a moment and discuss a topic of speculation, which I know is also a big subject of focus on some of the gen forums... My personal perspective- The watch market (gens) is fickle; there are but a few brands and models subset that are demonstrating any real gains in value, though I believe the majority of those increases to be more or less artifically inflated (in my opinion). Examples off the top of my head- Certain Patek models, i.e. the 5960, 5980, 5712, etc. etc. are selling for up and over double their retail prices- These are current production pieces! Vintage Rolex Sports models... 1665 DR, 1655, 6263, 6265, 6239, 6240, COMEX, etc... All selling for 2x - 5x + more than they were even a year ago. Even the early variant 16520's (dropped COSMOGRAPH, 4 line dials, inverted 6 dials, so-called Patrizzi's, etc) are selling in the $30k to higher $40k ranges, depending on which dial is in question. Now... These watches mentioned above are quite rare in their own right- Limited in quantity because of restrained production, or simply because time has left only very few in collector acceptable condition, or in any existance at all for that matter. It is my opinion that a lot of the market is inflated simply because secondary dealers, grey marketeers, etc. are able to get their hands on some of these models, and drive the market prices higher by charging an exorbitant premium, shilling, or perhaps influencing key collectors in the hobby to channel more demand (via discussion forums, or other venues) on a certain model or brand, variation, etc. True that the market will bear what people are willing to pay, but I have a feeling that some day, down the road, the bubble might burst on some of these pieces (maybe not all) and folks may have loaded large amounts of cash into a watch that's more or less of little actual value (especially intrinsic value- Steel, some white gold bits on the indicies and hands... Not much else to hold of actual value, unless you have a solid 18k piece as then it's worth the gold content at least). It's happened before with the bubblebacks... Some people have lost some major money (and homes, personal possessions, etc) by making 'investments'. So... I personally get a chuckle when I see someone on the gen boards stating 'watches are a better investment than stocks'. Well... Perhaps... In the short term. You may be able to flip a popular in-demand watch for a reasonable profit. But, you have to know what's hot at the moment, buy cheap and flip it fast; if the demand is already there, then buying cheap might not be feasible. Personally I wouldn't put any money into a watch merely for investment strategy. Especially considering that most watches depreciate in value in a similar parallel to a new car. And, this is the gen market that I'm speaking on. So, where does that leave reps? Well... Obviously, a rep has the value of whatever someone would be willing to pay for it- Perhaps it might even be more than what was paid initially when new (whatever the market will bear, right?). To me, I collect reps because they are a fun novelty for me (as a genuine would be as well), but also because most of the occupants in my collection are watches that I've built, hence I have more sentimental attachment to them. But, remember- At the end of the day... They are replications of genuines which are more than likely depreciating as it is anyways. And as replications, they will inherently not have the same level of value as their genuine counterpart. So, in my long winded way of saying... Buy what you want because it's something you want/lust/desire... Not because of the speculative value it could have someday down the road. This goes for gens and reps. You'll enjoy the hobby much more for what it is... /rant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corgi Posted June 25, 2007 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Sorry to digress... the 'investment' title of the post was more of a joke. I know that a 21J generic asian clone movement is not an investment. I just wanted to know if this rise in prices is something to be expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubiquitous Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Ahhh... It was I who digressed (sorry Corgi...)... As far as price increases... Yeah, those are to be expected from time to time, I suppose. Adjustment of currency exchange, rising rates of manufacturing, shipping/handling charges etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KB Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Corgi the simple fact is that we as a group laid ourselves bare and accepted the exorbitant prices for the so called Super Reps, so it goes without saying that these guys will also shaft us in what used to be their cheaper watches. In other words there is absolutely no reason for the price rise other than the dealers wish to make an extra $100 on the watch and it's going to get worse we already had one dealer trying to get the members to agree to pay between $1000 to $1500 for a rep...........when are we going to say stop? Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eunomians Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 I already have! It's gens now for me. I paid $100 for this one. It's got a gorgeous little French 17j auto movement. I'm with you, brother. Always have, too. Reps are but a minor distraction upon my watch portfolio. PS. Used to have a LeJour 7750. Gorgeous chrono, gave it to a pal who had been hounding me for a long time over it. He still wears it daily even after all these years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gran Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 I'm with you, brother. Always have, too. Reps are but a minor distraction upon my watch portfolio. PS. Used to have a LeJour 7750. Gorgeous chrono, gave it to a pal who had been hounding me for a long time over it. He still wears it daily even after all these years. Minor....Minor We seem to be spending a lot of time on something minor ....that will eventually lead us down the narrow path to genuines....even so my Paypal finger itch every time i see a truly beautiful rep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gran Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 Hey Gran... I never wished you gratulerer med dagen Sankthansaften! Tusen takk Robert det regnet og var d Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sssurfer Posted June 25, 2007 Report Share Posted June 25, 2007 concerned... what if all of Josh's models will have $100 added to their price tags in the near future? In that case then I would simply quit buying from Josh. And if all collectors would rise their prices that way then I would simply quit buying those models. And if all collectors would rise their prices that way on all models then I would simply quit buying reps. But I don't think Josh went crazy. I had nothing but pleasant transactions with Josh, and I just checked several other his models and none showed such an increase in price. I suppose that that price increase is due to something we are not aware of so far and it is model-specific. Perhaps we shall understand in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corgi Posted June 26, 2007 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 Let's make no misunderstanding, ssurfer, I agree with you - Josh is an excellent dealer. I bought the majority of my pieces from him and all are fantastic. When one arrived dead, he made it right... he is somebody who really devotes individual care and attention to his customer's needs. As a watch aficionado whose collection is made up almost entirely of reps, some of which are super, but most of which are fairly good value for the money, I have to say that I find myself at least somewhat knowledgeable with regard to the cost of manufacture of some of these things. As a result, I simply don't feel the need for such a tremendous increase. Granted, it's a nice watch... but I keep asking myself; "hmm... I wonder how much I would pay if I bought this direct from a merchant at some market in Guangzhou?" I don't know... I'm happy to own the watch but, it seems odd for this to be more expensive than a Swiss entry-level Rolex at the same site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KB Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 The average office worker in Guangzhou makes $200USD a Month, that watch alone was just increased by $100USD..........think about it. Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
new & improved osteopath Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 The only good way to invest in watches is to by super high echelon, and not wear them- Pateks, VC, etc... and only certain models. Short of that, just buy what you like, and if you get tired of it there's always eBay- but you wont usually get your money back out. Think of the depreciation as RENT. -O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crystalcranium Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 It's so interesting to watch the classic progression of a replica watch patron from the "Irrational exhuberance" of the early days to a more sober understanding that not every decent looking replica is worth owning.....and on to the unfortunate reality that only a handful of these watches are actually reasonable timepieces in terms of quality and value. When I first came here, I thought dealers like Josh were my access to watch heaven and watches like the IWC GST Chrono and the Bentley GT were almost every bit as good as the genuine article and I greedily bought them up as fast, and sometimes faster, than I could afford them. I now realize that most of these watches are marginal performers at best. There's a lot of junk out there. Some of the best values are $90 21Js.....some of the worst...the $400+ "Super Reps". I'm about to enter my MBW phase....who knows how this will change my life and my bank account. Corgi....as for the price increases....they do it because we will pay it...simple as that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratedzeus Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 Thank god for Ruby / Sashwatch / River / Trevor who still have the greatest bargains! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rek001 Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 I have the same Pam PR from Josh, paid $108 for it 1 year ago. Now it's $188? Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugwash Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 I have the same Pam PR from Josh, paid $108 for it 1 year ago. Now it's $188? Wow. Yeah, but the $108 you paid was worth more than $108 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratedzeus Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 But no 74% more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corgi Posted June 26, 2007 Author Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 I have the same Pam PR from Josh, paid $108 for it 1 year ago. Now it's $188? Wow. Actually... a little more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubiquitous Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 The only good way to invest in watches is to by super high echelon, and not wear them- Pateks, VC, etc... and only certain models. Short of that, just buy what you like, and if you get tired of it there's always eBay- but you wont usually get your money back out. Think of the depreciation as RENT. -O Hmmmm... Maybe not quite. There are a significant number of watches within the upper haute that don't retain good value. Some Pateks, AP's, VC's... J:D, Breguet, JLC, etc. lose 30% to 60% (depending) of new list/retail, sometimes despite being worn or not. However... If one were to have a hot, hot haute, say a 5960, 5980, a TA, RBII (any metal) etc. then that individual is in pretty good shape for resale/flipping, as these are in demand pieces (however, getting one's hands on one of these at a price that yields a decent margin is probably very unlikely, unless you're on a list with an AD who will sell at 0 mark up/prem, or you have some other inside track to procurring one). It's all about what the market deems as in demand... Namely the collectors, who may be speculating on the next LE, or short production run piece. However... Once the focus shifts to the next 'hot' watch, demand for that JPM or whatever will cool off, and prices may not sustain their inflated rate. Sometimes the demand never cools off (i.e. the AP EOD)... It all kinda depends. T'is a fickle market... On a somewhat different note... I still find the Antiquorum-Timezone relationship to be a little... Interesting, to say the least. Here we have an auction site that feeds into a fora of collectors. It's an interesting dynamic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
new & improved osteopath Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 As I said, really only certain models represent good investment potential, and only with the provisos you mention. That being said, I have a few really good gens, and two exceptional reps, and the one thing they all have in common is that I like them- for me that is the best investment I can make. So my advice is don't get watches you plan on flipping- get ones you plan on wearing. On an aside- the best investment watches I ever had were the Swatches I bought in the late 80s to early 90s. I only got the artist ones, and had them signed by the artist whenever possible. Accumulated about 200 of them over about 8 years. Sold most of them for between 2 and 400 dollars a pop (they were 40 to 50 dollars originally), and took a nice chunk out of my student loans with the profits. -O Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubiquitous Posted June 26, 2007 Report Share Posted June 26, 2007 So my advice is don't get watches you plan on flipping- get ones you plan on wearing. My sentiments exactly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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