Bizzon Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 In today's economy, I want to know if you all think that watch prices will fall . I got into reps because the prices of most of the watches I want are out of my $$$ range . But with today's economy I think there should be some good deals on reps and gens alike. I am actively looking for deals on used gens but really haven't found many. Just wondering if this is wishful thinking or do I not know where to look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krayfish Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 In today's economy, I want to know if you all think that watch prices will fall . I got into reps because the prices of most of the watches I want are out of my $$$ range . But with today's economy I think there should be some good deals on reps and gens alike. I am actively looking for deals on used gens but really haven't found many. Just wondering if this is wishful thinking or do I not know where to look. Can you PM what those watches are in your sig. Just so I can dream while our country goes under....haha Ta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltatahoe Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 i think your poll should include the new vs. used distinction, as i think it is relevant to the question. my thoughts: will new gen prices fall as a result of the economy? no. will used gen prices fall as a result of the economy? yes. will new rep prices fall as a result of the economy? no. will used rep prices fall as a result of the economy? yes. just my $0.02 deltatahoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 +1 i think your poll should include the new vs. used distinction, as i think it is relevant to the question. my thoughts: will new gen prices fall as a result of the economy? no. will used gen prices fall as a result of the economy? yes. will new rep prices fall as a result of the economy? no. will used rep prices fall as a result of the economy? yes. just my $0.02 deltatahoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 And as a side note, both rep and gen watches are not all that sensitive to most of the world economic conditions since neither have business models tied to short or long term debt. There is no carry trade. The biggest risk someone like Rolex has right now is not related to borrowing money to buy metals or whatever. Their risk is more related to retailers not selling enough watches. But lowering prices on luxury items generally doesn't spark sales and they know that. They just have to sit on the inventory at their dealers until it sells. But that doesn't really cost them anything - they just can't gain anything until they sell. All those watches were costed out and off the books so to speak the day they left Geneva. So don't look for lower gen prices due to economic conditions. It just doesn't make much sense for them to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freddy333 Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 I have yet to see any appreciable drop in the global pricing of rep watches, but you would have to be asleep under a rock (or just not bothering to look) not to know that the values (& prices) of used gens have been plummeting faster than the stock market over the last few months. Although economic fluctuations generally take awhile to affect retail prices, I am sure you will be seeing significant price cuts in ADs by Christmas if the economic outlook has not improved by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 Yes - on the used stuff. 100% correct. And sorry to the OP I too didn't make that distinction from the new market. The AD's have to do what they have to do to survive, but the manufactories won't be doing it at their level just yet. Plus some brands have to react more than others if they don't have a strong cash position. It will be especially interesting to see what Rolex AD's do as they love to hammerlock dealers and fix pricing. The kings of liquid cash as it were. So many of them must be starving but my friend who is a Rollie AD said today in fact that they have been keeping the presssure on to dealers not to give in to discounting pressures and keep the brand up and above it all - discerning customers and all that stuff. Yeah right. Hungry is hungry if you are a retailer no matter what you sell. The AD's are hurting for sure but Rolex would rather just wait it out then see prices come down. I can't say as I blame them but when the AD's are going out of business they are going to have to see the light at some point. I just hope Rolex doesn't pull the old game of threatening dealers over discounts so much now which they are so famous for. If they found out who those dealers are that continually blow out new Rollies for 25% off all day long they would probably pull their ticket, but they can never prove it... I have yet to see any appreciable drop in the global pricing of rep watches, but you would have to be asleep under a rock (or just not bothering to look) not to know that the values (& prices) of used gens have been plummeting faster than the stock market over the last few months. Although economic fluctuations generally take awhile to affect retail prices, I am sure you will be seeing significant price cuts in ADs by Christmas if the economic outlook has not improved by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XWORD Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 I myself am in the market for a used gen, but haven't seen a noticable drop in prices. All of the people that I've come across with used watches for sale still seem to think that their watches are worth almost what you can get a new one for from an AD. It's my impression that used jewellery/watches don't hold their value that well in a recession. So either these people lower their expectations along with their prices or they're going to be living with their watches for some time to come I suspect. Just my opinion though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 1, 2008 Report Share Posted December 1, 2008 Yeah, the used market is funny like that. I got out just in time. I took big lossesm but nothing compared to what I would have if I happened to time it differently. I recently paired down my gen collection from 20 to 6 only because I never wore most of them. I sold every one of them except one within a week I think and for top dollar based on recent sales plus a good premium for them being in LNIB condition. Plus I had good quality detailed pics that helped "sell" them. I sold a good deal of them on TZ actually. But now? They are sitting longer and selling for a LOT less. Good thing I just sold the last one I'm going to sell I guess... I myself am in the market for a used gen, but haven't seen a noticable drop in prices. All of the people that I've come across with used watches for sale still seem to think that their watches are worth almost what you can get a new one for from an AD. It's my impression that used jewellery/watches don't hold their value that well in a recession. So either these people lower their expectations along with their prices or they're going to be living with their watches for some time to come I suspect. Just my opinion though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HauteHippie Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 In today's economy, I want to know if you all think that watch prices will fall . I got into reps because the prices of most of the watches I want are out of my $$$ range . But with today's economy I think there should be some good deals on reps and gens alike. I am actively looking for deals on used gens but really haven't found many. Just wondering if this is wishful thinking or do I not know where to look. The deflationary bust we're currently experiencing in the USA (and elsewhere) is going to drag gen prices in down in terms of US dollars in all likelihood, especially in the "pre-owned" market. If you've been holding dollars for the past ~6 months, then you're way ahead. To the contrary if you've been holding foreign currencies or pretty much any asset over that period of time. This situation could (and should) change quite rapidly at some point in the future, however, when the real economic collapse ensues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltatahoe Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 given freddy's point re: AD's, i think i'll revised my post as follows: will new gen manufacturer prices fall as a result of the economy? no. will new gen AD prices (including any discount) fall as a result of the economy? probably. will used gen prices fall as a result of the economy? yes. will new rep prices fall as a result of the economy? no. will used rep prices fall as a result of the economy? yes. deltatahoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubiquitous Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 In my opinion... Gen or rep, used or new I think that the pricing will ultimately depend on the piece in question. The good majority of 'common' pieces will likely see a reduction in pricing or perceived value as supply and demand will play a big factor; ergo, the more common the piece, the greater availability and those with the liquid funds ready to purchase will be able to command a lower price or turn to the seller's competitor to get the price they want. For pieces of a more limited nature and/or in higher demand, I feel as though those pieces will either move at the seller's price, or they simply won't sell (i.e. the seller would rather hold vs. take a loss). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 Yes. All should heed the Chief's words here - not just regarding watches but in general. The equities market colapse is fear based and not the real market colapse. That will come when the reality of worthless currencies worldwide settles in. That will happen when printing money no longer solves any problems and the bill comes due at the same time. When that happens the richest man in the world will be the guy with a garage full of 50lb sacks of rice, a zippo, and a 10 year supply of lighter fluid... The deflationary bust we're currently experiencing in the USA (and elsewhere) is going to drag gen prices in down in terms of US dollars in all likelihood, especially in the "pre-owned" market. If you've been holding dollars for the past ~6 months, then you're way ahead. To the contrary if you've been holding foreign currencies or pretty much any asset over that period of time. This situation could (and should) change quite rapidly at some point in the future, however, when the real economic collapse ensues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offshore Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 I believe we will see drops in gen prices, and "marketing" deals on reps! Sooner than later, the rep manufacturers, are going to try to clear some excess inventory, and we will see deals for multiple quantities. This is already evident in ebay wholesale"bulk" sales, that area is being taken over by China based sellers..... where they were selling 100 @ a time, now they will sell 5 or 10! I see this as well in my "other" life, purchasing bulk goods from China. We can't yet negotiate price too much, but trading terms....quantity....settlement.....smaller volumes....are certainly now available and evident. However the single biggest area for better pricing, will be to follow the various exchange rates, and buy in the "off market" areas. There are already sellers in other countries, who have inventory purchased at favourable rates, who will let it go, even though replacement is higher. Last week, I was even able to push a Chinese seller, to deal in A$, as akin to the standard U$, and I picked up about 4% on a specific deal, (which I had to do) So check other countries offerings, do your sums...both on exchange rate, and quantity if applicable.... and the real bargains will become evident. Just my A$0.02c (now worth considerably less ) as usual. Offshore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stolikat Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 And as a side note, both rep and gen watches are not all that sensitive to most of the world economic conditions since neither have business models tied to short or long term debt. There is no carry trade. The biggest risk someone like Rolex has right now is not related to borrowing money to buy metals or whatever. Their risk is more related to retailers not selling enough watches. But lowering prices on luxury items generally doesn't spark sales and they know that. They just have to sit on the inventory at their dealers until it sells. But that doesn't really cost them anything - they just can't gain anything until they sell. All those watches were costed out and off the books so to speak the day they left Geneva. So don't look for lower gen prices due to economic conditions. It just doesn't make much sense for them to do it. Are you serious? HAHHAAA!! It doesnt cost them to sit on inventory? HAHHAHAHAHAHA!!! Idiot!!! Prices will come down all around and the rep factories first...China is hurting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 Not now. It was costed when they shipped it. I'm talking about the unsold inventory now that hasn't sold sitting in AD's. The brand already costed those - see? Nothing changes for them in that case - not the AD who is the dealer. They don't make replacements until they sell so there is no carry trade backed up. The watch biz uses a JIT system for the most part to feed its dealers. With that, they can sit through a lot on their hand without getting too killed. The AD's are another story... And ease up a little brother. This isn't a race... Are you serious? HAHHAAA!! It doesnt cost them to sit on inventory? HAHHAHAHAHAHA!!! Idiot!!! Prices will come down all around and the rep factories first...China is hurting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceberg1459 Posted December 2, 2008 Report Share Posted December 2, 2008 maybe we can get little more ad discount but i wouldnt expect more @stolikat whos that girl in your avatar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizzon Posted December 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 Based on what I hear, i am going to put off my next gen purchase for a while. I am really waiting for a good deal on the rep market I got three watches on my wish list. we'll see how this turns out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shundi Posted December 3, 2008 Report Share Posted December 3, 2008 Are you serious? HAHHAAA!! It doesnt cost them to sit on inventory? HAHHAHAHAHAHA!!! Idiot!!! Prices will come down all around and the rep factories first...China is hurting... Very mature. Not now. It was costed when they shipped it. I'm talking about the unsold inventory now that hasn't sold sitting in AD's. The brand already costed those - see? Nothing changes for them in that case - not the AD who is the dealer. They don't make replacements until they sell so there is no carry trade backed up. The watch biz uses a JIT system for the most part to feed its dealers. With that, they can sit through a lot on their hand without getting too killed. The AD's are another story... And ease up a little brother. This isn't a race... I agree...privately owned corporations like Rolex are perennial...Rolex's business model has worked for years including during the 60's-80's "Quartz Revolution." It doesn't cost Rolex anything and if they value their inventory using IASB rules or a fair value system gold prices going up will help their financials even if watches sit in inventory. One of Rolex's notorious business practices is to limit supply and keep retained inventory as low as possible... this prevents a major surplus of Rolex watches sitting on shelves and being sold on the grey market (vs other brands such as Omega, the other SWATCH brands, etc)... Rolex is Rolex. Period. They're not going to have a 3 million watch inventory to hold never sell...the Authorized Dealers will get positively smashed but Rolex will be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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