offshore Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Chief...as usual, you are spot on! And so is your avatar! Although I did like the old one better! O/S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 And so how anyone can go along with this plan to recreate the exact same bubble in the exact same manner is absolutely beyond me. And, besides, why would the hedge funds and foreign investors buy back in?! Especially after they hear Geithner on CNBC actually state that we need the government to supply the demand that is missing in the economy... We (they) won't. Not feasable from any perspective this time. No way to build a reasonable risk model this time around for obvious reasons - and our (their) money on the long side in droves is crucial to the eventual success of the United States again. And again, there has to be either a reason to speculate that there will be and/or evidence that there is forward momentum in order to convince virtually any player to do it. Of course the crickets are chirping in that regrard so here we sit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fat.tail.event Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Take a step back and laugh a little....I wish one of the House Reps would have used their 5 minutes the other day for this.... Wall Street Executive Airlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corgi Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Surrounding yourself with adorable kittens is a great way to prevent economic catastrophe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fat.tail.event Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Consensus of value. Before price can move on it has to reach consensus. Indeed. Your point can be magnified beyond the Beast (SP500 futures) to the US economy, to the global economy. There are a lot of assets that WANT to go to zero right now. But we emote, turn the quantitative data into heartbreaking narratives for the nightly news and then prop assets up under the guise of 'doing good'. This is what politicians call 'results'. Ultimately, we only end up distorting value, which makes it difficult to form the consensus Robbie, and all of us seek, and need to build better things. Creative destruction. If we choose to operate the way we have over the last couple of weeks, my only request is that Congress hosts a morning equity call where they tell me whether or not they want to make the market go up or down that day. Or, if the US Treasury could publish their 12 month SP500 target. That would be nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rxus Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Slowly but surely the $hit is hitting the proverbial fan... It's time those of us living in the US start working on our duel citizenship if you don't already have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakemaster Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 It's the end times I tell ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Let's take it a step further. The free market is the solution to recession and depression. The solution is never brought by politicians seeking votes, but rather by entrepreneurs seeking profits (wealth creation enriches everyone). And it is, in fact, scary how utterly clueless our latest crop of central planners appear to be. It's bad enough that they're going to take the Bush fiasco and multiply it by orders of magnitude with Geithner's $2T bank rescue plan on top of the $800B "stimulus" set to pass imminently, on top of the already spent $700B from round 1, on top of God only knows what else. But what this one-trick fraud Geithner wants to do now is once again prop up the market for asset-backed securities. Unbelievable!! News flash: the securitization of mortgages, and credit card debt, and all that other garbage paper is exactly what caused this problem! And so how anyone can go along with this plan to recreate the exact same bubble in the exact same manner is absolutely beyond me. And, besides, why would the hedge funds and foreign investors buy back in?! Especially after they hear Geithner on CNBC actually state that we need the government to supply the demand that is missing in the economy... Cue John McEnroe. Putting the repetition of epic failure and catastrophe aside... for the love of all that is sacred and holy.... did this guy even take Econ 101? I mean, to come full circle here, it is the productivity of the free market (not the government) that supplies goods which creates demand. Supply creates demand. But when you've got the government propping up companies that were too unproductive to survive on their own and should have gone bankrupt, then what you're doing is preventing economic recovery by diverting resources to companies that should have gone under, and away from new companies that could have been viable, thereby preventing business expansion. And therefore we should not be thinking of this as a rescue plan. But rather, quite the opposite. There was a real opportunity here to slam on America's brakes as we head straight towards a cliff and steer us back on course, but without any question at all, what they're doing instead is nothing short of stepping on the gas pedal. Scary, scary stuff brewing. No two ways about it. Wow. That is some good stuff. What was your MOS 'Chief' ? There was a real opportunity here to slam on America's brakes as we head straight towards a cliff and steer us back on course That would have been the Conservative approach, the least of which not being; 7% capital gains tax and maybe what 'Nanuq' proposed; interim, unbridled tax relief, spelled; M-c-C-A-I-N, just for laughs, however, but, no sense in doing the "woulda', shoulda', coulda' " at this point. Like Rummy said; "You don't go to war with the Army you want, you go to war with the Army you got." This Administration has ALL the power. If it is failing, or will fail, it is like a tennis match; if you lose hard, it is because you suck. Not the team; America. "Be careful for what you wish for (or vote for), you just may get it............" Anonymous Werd up America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Indeed. Your point can be magnified beyond the Beast (SP500 futures) to the US economy, to the global economy. There are a lot of assets that WANT to go to zero right now. But we emote, turn the quantitative data into heartbreaking narratives for the nightly news and then prop assets up under the guise of 'doing good'. This is what politicians call 'results'. Ultimately, we only end up distorting value, which makes it difficult to form the consensus Robbie, and all of us seek, and need to build better things. Creative destruction. If we choose to operate the way we have over the last couple of weeks, my only request is that Congress hosts a morning equity call where they tell me whether or not they want to make the market go up or down that day. Or, if the US Treasury could publish their 12 month SP500 target. That would be nice too. Exactly what I was trying to say with my trading illustrations and the folley of what consensus of value really does and doesn't mean all at once. Not in trading really, but as it relates to the whole pool of issues. If anyone didn't quite get the connection - fat.tail is right - this is what I was trying to ellude to. And speakin of fat tails, let's not even talk about how those abnormal distributions can interact with consensus of value in times like these... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 "moot" "allude" I'm just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonthebhoy Posted February 13, 2009 Report Share Posted February 13, 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 "moot" "allude" I'm just sayin'. Either I type too fast (incorrectly with 6 fingers) for my mind to catch up, or I'm just a dumb trader with a 6th grade education and a p*ss poor vocabulary - you decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 14, 2009 Report Share Posted February 14, 2009 lol You left out the obvious choice Robbie............) I was drunk as a skunk and have no recollection of posting the above. I don't think 'dumb' can be applied to any of your posts............thanks for the insights, good stuff.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakemaster Posted February 15, 2009 Report Share Posted February 15, 2009 More more please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 15, 2009 Report Share Posted February 15, 2009 More more please.... You unrelenting troll! I KEEL you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shundi Posted February 15, 2009 Report Share Posted February 15, 2009 Couldn't resist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 21, 2009 Report Share Posted February 21, 2009 Couldn't resist... lol C'mon Shund' this is 2009 let the stereo types go. Ironically, this photo was taken when President Obama was visiting an elementary school reading. You know, almost an identical photo-op as when W. was apprised of the 9/11 situation. The press jumped on him because he took that 40 sec. eternity to absorb the news before he conferred with his aides. lol, I wonder what the underground press would have gone with if this were President Obama's reaction to said same? Anyhoo, I just checked in here and wondered why this thread fell apart. Then it dawned; all the capitalists have been in the fetal position since Monday. Make sweet love to the free-market O, and you will have 'Rome'..................ignore it and you won't have any political capital to set them free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonthebhoy Posted February 21, 2009 Report Share Posted February 21, 2009 and there was me thinking that he had just been smacked with a cricket ball in his family jewels by some American Ian Botham wannabee...... Until I remembered that over there they play roundas with a lighter baw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shundi Posted February 21, 2009 Report Share Posted February 21, 2009 and there was me thinking that he had just been smacked with a cricket ball in his family jewels by some American Ian Botham wannabee...... Until I remembered that over there they play roundas with a lighter baw. Exactly...it's such a priceless expression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 23, 2009 Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 (edited) Poor economic indicators this week due to 'Policy confusion'='Poor adminstrative performance'. It's like, whoa, the top exec has no executive experience or what? Which is OK, I suppose, because, when I needed heart surgery? I didn't have any personal experience in surgical cardiology. I just used a good vetting plan to find a man who did. So................................C'mon people get it together. Jeez. Edited February 23, 2009 by Demsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fakemaster Posted February 23, 2009 Report Share Posted February 23, 2009 Please do not let this thread die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fat.tail.event Posted February 24, 2009 Report Share Posted February 24, 2009 I believe it was Credit Suisse today with a note that said SP500 to 650 based on 'policy confusion'. What it really means is that we will get to 650 a little bit faster due to this comedy of errors. We are/were going down to that range irregardless of who was at the helm. Wasting $75B (drop in the bucket) on home mortgages...Where's the total US housing market now? About $15-17 Trillion I think. Geithner now wants to get in bed with the hedge funds??? ...loan them the money to go out and purchase distressed debt. The true lenders of last resort, because we will want 15% Obama is on TV everyday (even another prime time spot this week, right) pumping the US market like its some kind of penny stock, and it still cant find any traction. Scariest part of all...it seems like when I speak to our traders that all of this selling semi-orderly and somewhat lethargic. You get this sense that market participants are just packing it in, and not trying to even go out and make money. When we tested these lows back in Nov 2008, there was at least a sense of panic in the air...as if there was some minor bloodletting going on. Not this time. It feels like the market is in a comfort zone of sorts. So the real question is, how/when/where can we get some true fear? That will help build in another bottom. My bones tell me that something big is imminent. Someone or something is going to lay a very large egg here, sooner or later. Anyone have thoughts on that? Maybe it originates in Eastern Europe and sends shockwaves into Western. It looks like former USSR countries wont be able to roll over their short-term debt and the AustroHungarian banks are going to get whacked holding their bags. Maybe thats where the next liquidity or currency crisis begins. disclosure: still short, massively short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 24, 2009 Report Share Posted February 24, 2009 (edited) You get this sense that market participants are just packing it in, and not trying to even go out and make money. Unfortunately, with my two personal 'inside market' gurus on the Syrian border tending to other important stuff, the only intel I can draw from is reading the WSJ everyday, internet blogs, surfing the satellite and filtering the chatter from the talking heads, which, in this environment, makes me a pro. I would say, the money on the sideline is a pretty well wound spring in it's barrel, to use the vernacular of the board. Right now the hang for a bear market rally is the ambiguous signals sent from Washington on the bank support. The investor corps is willing, and ready, but no one want's to be the first one into the pool. Not on any sound economic principle, but just because just as you collect $200 passing "Go" in Monopoly; it's just a quirk of how the game is played. If Geithner would 'ceremoniously' just spell it out, the plan, ant reasonable plan, in Russian if he want's to-what the heck, then the market would rally 3-5% on a vaporous sigh of relief. That's the new market. Invent a rally on rehtoric, and immediately sell into it. It's the first day at school. Old school long-term investing is closed. The DOW could quite possibly never grow to 14000. So what? The market fell 3% yesterday, wish I had an early trade in on Citi and BAC. For the day. Right now, waiting for the market to open, the Futures are looking like a DOW bump of perhaps 40-60 points up till maybe 1000 EST, ALL the major US banks are up 5-7% in the pre-trade. It will all be over by 1030, and millions could be made in trades in the financial sector even if the DOW drops to 6500 by 1600. OK fine, I used to bemoan 'traders' because they screwed with my long term investment models. But if you can't lick'em, lick 'em as the Reverend Ted Nugent used to say. Heck, I'll trade until 1045 EST and then go fishing if that's the new game. I'm all in. "Gold" is f*ing stupid though. Edited February 24, 2009 by Demsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demsey Posted February 24, 2009 Report Share Posted February 24, 2009 MmmmmK, so it's 1010 EST and the DOW hit what? 75+ around 0945 on the financials JPM, C, WFC all up about 3% ? And the index is just about flat now? There was money to be made there............ But Bernanke is flapping his yap, and Geithner has another shot at 'open mouth insert foot' this afternoon. Don't bet the market, bet the psyche. It can work. I'm going fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest asim Posted February 24, 2009 Report Share Posted February 24, 2009 Shorting CTB has been blissful. Anyway, I am new to this thread but I am doing a post-grad in investment management so reading stuff here as well as contributing will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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