A few random thoughts -
If I got a nickel every time someone complained about the rising prices of LUXURY watches, I would be able to purchase a new Air King - if I could find 1 in stock at an AD.
The LUXURY watch market is 1 of the best demonstrations of simple supply & demand I can think of. As more people dump their fashionable Dick Tracy cartoon gizmos (ie Apple 'watch') in favor of a timeless gentleman's timepiece, whether high-end or entry-level, DEMAND increases. At the same time, most of the LUXURY watch brands cannot SUPPLY more than they do because - 1. producing more would cause them to either change their established production systems or reduce quality; & 2. producing more would dilute their exclusivity, making them more accessible to more people & less 'valuable' - both in dollars & as aspirational benchmarks to those who appreciate meritocracy.
If I got a nickel every time someone predicted Rolex's eventual collapse due to their ever-increasing MSRP, I would be able to purchase a new Daytona - if I thought I would live long enough to make it to the top of the waiting list.
As has been said many times, this time next year, today's 'outrageous' vintage Rolex asking price will seem like a bargain. Since I got into watch collecting (mid-80s), there are three things that appear to be constants - death, taxes & escalating Rolex prices (especially vintage). Rolex gentleman's watches are & will always be stylish (as opposed to fashionable). As demand (for a limited supply) increases, so do prices.
Aside from their precious metal content, I do think that many Pateks & similar haute horology pieces (that do not contain complex complications (eg, tourbillon)) are unrealistically priced. To pay $35k (MSRP) for a stainless steel Patek 5711 when a $350-$500 ETA-powered rep looks, feels & functions nearly the same, is nuts. Obviously, if you want your watch made of precious metals & do not wish to risk a simple scratch revealing your beer budget, the gen makes more sense. Likewise, if you appreciate the more technological aspects of the LUXURY watchmakers' art & have the financial wherewithal to fund that appreciation, select gens are generally good investments.
Finally, contrary to the media's storyline, the reason so many mid-level watch brands appear to be jumping into the deep (high-end) end of the watch market pool is because so many more people are able to afford the price of admission. Capitalism DOES create wealth out of nothing. Capitalism is NOT a fixed pie with a limited set of slices, so that when you take a bite it comes out of my mouth. The fact is that if a homeless guy creates a good or service that a million people would rather have than the $300 in their pocket, that homeless guy will become a 1-percenter as a result. & companies like Rolex figured this out 100 years ago. That is why, during the 1970s, Rolex posted billboards all over China (eg, Tiananmen Square) in an effort to prime-the-pump for what they gambled would be their next market if/when China relaxed their decades long prohibition of personal property and ownership, especially of LUXURY goods. I recall, at the time, Rolex took alot of heat over the billboards with many in the media calling them foolish since 'everyone knew that few Chinese were permitted to purchase a Rolex'. But, as usual, Rolex predicted the future correctly & they were the first brand most Chinese thought of purchasing once China became a capitalist (albeit still authoritarian) nation.
So, to paraphrase Twain, predictions of Rolex collapse are premature.
Perhaps, not today. But if you set your sights on 1 of Patek's lower-end models, or a model in less demand & save for awhile with the goal of owning that Patek, you probably will.