RobbieG

Nah, not really. Look, I'm buying a lot of gens now as some things have changed in my life very recently, but noone likes to pay more for anything - rep or gen. I'm just kind of out of the rep market and probably for good so to that end I don't really care what happens to prices. I love being here because of freindships and this is where the real wacko watch nuts like me are..lol... I think we will see a price spike from exclusivity on a few 1:1 watches, but it won't sustain itself here and then we will a return to today's prices which is about the max which can be sustained across all boundaries. But in order to experiment with these new designs and new materials they have to tool up and they have to pass that cost down the chain which is why the prices have been higher in the last year or so IMO. In teh end, stuff like the Noob Sub will always be the bread and butter and that will always be the baseline - $200 watches...

It's not tough to understand. I for one just don't care because if Josh were the only game in town it would be fine by me. Mostly because I don't buy reps much any more and if I ever do I know I'll get the same price and the same product and great service from him. It is a choice of each individual. I choose to not care about it also because I actually think the current prices are very low and unrealistic to maintain. And when compared to their genuine counterparts the best of these watches would be a good buy to me still at twice the price they sell for now - if I bought one at all. But then that is a whole other discussion, becase if a modded PO is $500 all in or something I'm getting gen every time for only 4x the price of a rep. No brainer for me. It is only a bargain if they are 1/8 the price or less for me at this point which is why I don't buy them much any more. I mean I paid $2200 for my gen Steelfish so the rep has already crossed over for me. So maybe if the gen is ten grand the the HBB and you really want one maybe seven hundred makes sense? Not to me, because when I start getting into ten plus grand watches only the gen will do for a host of other reasons. Reps to me were always centered around the Submariner as it made perfect sense. At one time a 4K watch was just out of reach and so I looked to reps. What I found was a slew of under $200 options which with that again in modding were every bit as good as the real thing. That has more to do with Rolex though. A Sub really isn't all that great of a watch to begin with IMO. Cheap flimsy bracelet, etc. so the rep makes sense. But now we have all these watches being repped which are absolutely LUXURIOUS in every way to begin with and the bar is so high. The reps have to be blinding to get our attention and the economies of scale are shrinking. I just don't know how it can go on and pay for itself other than to charge more to a whole new market of suckers or something. It's like the watches are worth every bit of $500 with blank dials, but then they aren't because they are reps. I really think the future of the industry is still just its past. $200 Submariners that are near perfect out of the box. No further manufacturing costs and a never ending stream of buyers...

Well said. I am guilty of of not really using these forums for the use that they may be intended which is probably why my view is a little liberal. For me I never looked for protection but rather just a line to a way to essentially buy the watches at wholesale prices. I say wholesale because 99% of the internet buyers of reps don't pay what we pay. And I know that even if the price of an average super rep rises to say $700, that the dealers here will always be the cheapest place to buy them. So selfishly once I found a dealer who I could try (with a capital "I"), I became just a consumer with a favorite store to buy stuff. I'm not saying it is right, but I'm the type of guy who isn't going to stop buying t-shirts from Walmart if my political view differes from the owners or whatever. I just don't mix my role as a consumer with other things. To that end, as long as say, Joshua, in my case, literally slathers me personally with customer service, I could care less how many others he burns down in the process if that is the case. It makes no difference to me the way a man makes a living so long as his interests don't conflict with mine. And in this case, they don't. Specifically because in the case of Joshua, I believe for every bad thing one could say about him, one could say something good. Such is the case with most dealers and most of us. What he and Andrew have and continue to contribute to the qulaity of the products we buy is not small potatoes and I for one appreciate what he is doing. But please, whatever you do, don't interperet what I say as blindly defending him or any of his actions. If his actions don't affect me, I just don't care. I know that may sound brutal to some but I'm just being honest. But if he were to burn me even once with the slightest singe, I would set him on fire in a minute. I hold anyone I deal with in the highest standard and frankly he has led the pack in my now 4 year tenure with replica watches. And I mean head and shoulders above. In fact, every other dealer besides him I have bought from has burned me in a MAJOR way on the first pass except him. Dumb luck? Probably. But it is my luck and all I have to go on. But again, I don't want my posts to be interpereted as a defense of Josh and Andrew. I'm just trying to present another way of looking a a complex series of issues and circumstances happening a world away which none of us will ever fully understand and it is surely a brutal system of control and survival of the fittest reigns supreme. I'm also certain that Josh and Andrew didn't invent that system but they are just trying to get to the top and survive in it just as all th eother dealers are. The factories make the rules and the majority of the money will always flow to them and they will have the dealers doing whatever it akes to guarantee that.

Hey, all discussions and points of view aside, I hope this subject gets some airtime in the next Replicast brother Andreww. Anything planned for a new edition?

For the record, I'm not saying that I like it either - if that is indeed what is happening. I mean, no one likes to see the little guy get squashed, but it is reality. I'm only saying that we live with this invisibly in nearly everything we purchase in the legit world and so I find it funny that it get's "High Horsed" here when it has to do with replica watches of all things. The same stuff happens every day with supermarket brands for instance but I bet the same folks don't complain about that or are otherwise in denial about it. Do you think Walmart doesn't price fix with it's China made crap they sell? OK, think that. Be my guest if it makes you feel better. My point is that the notion of free trade violations and price controls is something that is nearly impossible to enforce in the legitimate world so how can one expect an illegal industry controlled by the Mafia to be free of it? How about union labor in Las Vegas? Trash collection in NYC? But a few hundred replica watches on an underground forum. Absolutely. Let's get to the bottom of it from six thousand miles away and effect a change which will discourage the practice and cost the offender real dollars. Uh...OK...Have at it then, but it won't even make a dent... quote name='peepshow' date='Jul 27 2008, 09:15 AM' post='496617'] MANIPULATING SUPPLY/DEMAND IN ORDER TO RAISE THE PRICES *I* PAY IS NEVER GOING TO BE "OK" OR ACCEPTABLE *TO ME*.

I don't recall saying that they commissioned the Skyland. Any version. All the watches I named have been claimed in the past to be commissioned by those guys on these boards. If someone knows different, do tell. If these are in error I would love to know about it. I don't see what would be in it for them to lie about those watches though. They were all available from them first if you recall so I have no reason to challenge it. Incidentally, I don't own any of them any more, nor do I buy reps at all any more if you want to know the truth. I just find the industry fascinating and I really appreciate being able to witness an industrial revolution in motion in my lifetime. It's just witnessing a chess game to me, and I have played a lot in the past too, but I know many here take it more seriously so allow me to apologize for my aloofness in advance. By all means, please do ignore everything I say if you like. I'm just trying to illustrate the value of exclusivity in the marketing of any product which is probably where the industry is headed if the goal is higher profits. If you don't think so, fine. You are entitled to your own views. I'm not going to try and delineate which lines in my posts are my opinions and which are known facts. We are all intelligent adults here and we can draw our own conclusions...

GZ is really just a stationary mothership sunken into the Chinese countryside. Josh and Andrew are aliens sent here to brainwash you and use watches to strip you of your vital life essence. The new GMTIIc isn't ceramic at all but has a radioactive bezel insert that will suck the marrow out of your wrist bone and then beam it back to them which they then eat. Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones are in on it too. Bastards. They flipped and are now working for the other side. That is what is REALLY happening in GZ. Trust me. I know...

No they are not, but they will be more and more in the future. It is the only way to increase prices which is always the goal of any business. Costs go up so you have to charge more. The equipment costs are astronomical. And it has been well establihsed that rep buyers are very sensitive to price increases so there lies the rub. Exclusivity allows any dealer (not just J&A) who has pull with his maker to participate and control supply and pricing in some way. You pay up front, you reap the rewards on the end. Kinda like buying blow by the plane-full is better than by the ounce or kilo. Same kind of business too. Political power and influence dictates who operates. J&A are just well postioned compared to any other dealer. That is not to say Angus couldn't do the same thing, but he has to be able to help fund the projects. Skin in the game as they say. The rest is conversation. The watches I mentioned were purchased by Josh but you are right many more are not. Some the factories do themselves. But they don'y have the pulse of the watch market and what consumers want. That's what these boards are for really and what the dealers use them for. The really funny thing is the members all say these boards are for protection against scammers and all that, but what is really happening is that all the dealers just use them as an info source to take the temperature of their buyers and then turn the whole thing against them to get more money for "special" projects. All of our posts are just fuel for them to figure out better ways to get the dough. Watches cost more BECAUSE of these boards. he dealers see how ravenous the masses here are for watches and they play us like a grand piano. Genius. I love it. They really have a great little cottage industry going here. The boards think they are in control by exercising bannings and whatever, but they are really just adding to the infamy and playing right into their hands. It doesn't matter if J&A are banned anywhere or even sell anything on these boards at all. If they are funding watch projects they get the money anyway. It just flows from your hands to Angus or whoever and from his to the factory who wacks it up with Josh. So what does it all accomplish I wonder. If Josh and Andrew keep buying project watches and in addition justifying their existence to the factories with wholesale orders they are always going to get your money no matter what...

Then you are in great shape my friend.

Right, but I'm saying that may be about to change with future 1:1 projects and will become exclusive from start to finish. As every one of these 1:1 projects becomes more and more successful, Josh and Andrew gain more power with that factory group by the second...

Well I have to disagree there. I have no interest in passing a watch off as a gen. Actually I don't really own a lot of reps right now, but the quality of the 1:1's can't be beat. If you want the best watch for the money those are it. The manufacturing process itself insures the highest possibel quality and those pieces really are a sight to behold for the money. I own the genuine Aquatimer and the genuine SFSO and also had the reps of both and I must say the quality is blinding and absolutely every bit as good as the gen down to the last degree - and it still has visual flaws. By contrast, even the best Rolex and PAM reps not made with the detail of the 1:1 process just don't have that extra "something" that my gens from those two camps IMO. It is the super high tolerance CNC work on each and every piece that makes the difference.

Sorry. I don't mean to puff. Not all but a lot recently for sure. The ones that ones to mind are The GMTIIc, The SFSO, The B&R, The Breitling Heritage, The Slevin, The Graham Chronofighter, and the Chopard Miglia off the top of my head. Imagine if all these were exclusive and as such cost the same as the Big Bangs for instance. There would be some pretty pi**ed off people on these boards for sure and I think that exclusivity is right around the corner. All the pieces of that puzzle are in place...

Sure, and that is the choice everyone has to make. You are right. They don't care about these forums other than to stay connected to the retail side of the biz. Selling one-offs and servicing them is a pain in the a*s I'm sure. I wouldn't want to do it either. It will just be interesting to see what anti J&A members will do when a good number of the best reps around are exclusive to them and not available from any other dealer. If they contribute enough money and pre-sales, the factory will continue to grant exclusives as they can get more money that way. If no other dealer can get a watch and they want to charge $700 retail people will pay. If not here then somewhere else. And the factory will just eat that up when they can start getting double for each watch at the wholesale level. It is a no brainer really. Exclusivity=more money at every level and that is where we are headed...

J&A's buisness is completely intertwined. To use the Rolex analogy they are more like Rolex employees than retailers. They are partnered with factories and carry out their wishes. They have the real power as their influence at the government level is what allows the biz to operate. Ever wonder why it is that GZ is the center of the rep world with sales openly in the streets and yet no one ever gets busted? Rolex knows it all comes out of GZ but they never seem to be able to do anything about it? Juice my friend. Big money. Big power. As for the horsehair, I haven't been discussing the nature of the products themselves, only the supply chain and who the players are. If you think one-off sales from these forums is the majority of their business you are mistaken. It is importnat but not the biggest part. The best thing thse boards do for them is help them guage interest in watches so that they can choose watches for projects which will likely be big sellers. The role J&A play for the factorTheir biz is high end watches, but the majority are shipped to other retailers in lots of 10-30 pieces and involves major governmental assistance and the factories "juice" to get them out of the country. Everything in China is about power and grease...

Sorry but I have to disagree. All the best reps you probably own right now are projects of the cartel. The 1:1 watches are purchased by Josh and Andrew and they partner with the factory by funding the project with the base watches and help in paying for an enormous amount of CNC equipment. You may not need "THE" cartel, but if you want those watches you will need "A" cartel. Someone has to front these projects and keep its ear to the pavement to see what watches to buy and replicate based on estimated demand. The factories need J&A for that. Plus, in the future because of all this J&A and their factories will be doing more exclusive projects that just won't be available to other dealers unless they partner with another factory in the same way. You have only seen the tip of the iceberg as to what is going to happen with exclusivity and price fixing...

I would so love it if Josh was a majority shareholder in Swatch. How cool would that be...Funny...

It is my understanding that the wholesale part of the biz is the largest. The suppliers closest to the makers like Josh and Andrew sell wholesale quantity to other retailers with bulk orders. Many of these are likely the so-called "scam dealers" everyone always talks about. Not to go off on another tangent, but let's face it, one of the definitions of a "scam" dealer is one that sells Noob Subs for a grand or something. Many of them are not really scams, but rather just sites that pay to have a strong search engine power and simply charge a lot for watches. That is the big biz for higher end reps and the sales are huge compared to ours. Remember, there are many satisfied customers who never find these boards who bought Noob Subs for a grand around the globe. To them it is an awesome copy for 1/5th the price. I think I agree. It only becomes a scam if you find out that it is possible to buy it for $200. One could say that about almost any legitimate product as well. Like say a goose down comforter or something. If you buy it on Rodeo for a thousand or on Overstock for $200, it is still the same comforter. Middle men making profits or retailers with high overhead is not a scam...

One of the brands that brought most of us here is the pioneer of that. I'm not going to boycott them over it, although maybe many have. He who controls the game makes the rules. If you are a Rolex dealer and you sell for less than they want you too they will pull your ticket so fast it will make your head spin. Going out of business? Cash flow tight? Making room for 09' stock? Too bad. Sell for under 10% off retail (or discount at all for some flagship stores) and we will come and clean you out tomorrow. I happens too. I have heard those stories from other AD's and I know many more have too. I think we have to try and stop putting this little rep biz in a vacuum. It is just like Switzerland in many respects. Reps are sort of a luxury item in themselves which will be subject to the same sort of price pressures but just with less zeros. Think of the makers as Rolex and Josh and Andrew as their henchmen and junior partners in for a piece. It really isn't as sinister as many would have us believe. Plus, I spent many years in Hawaii myself and you should all take to heart what Lani said about Asian business culture. I found that all to be true - at least in my limited experience...

Oh Yes. You got that right brother. That is the one certain outcome of all of this as we go forward.

Oh make no mistake, my post has nothing to do with loyalty at all. Who care's about backdoor anything if you get your watch? Isn't that the end goal? It isn't our backdoor by the way, and nothing will change ever change that. My post was just pointing out what IS happening, not what my opinion was about Josh or Andrew. I would say the same things if it were any other dealer I swear on my eyes. I'm really just saying that they are unique in that they are the two dealers who are more than dealers and are tied to the manufacturer and as such have the most juice. The watch is their project - they make the rules. That simple. And why not? Should dealers who DIDN'T pay to bring you the best reps on the planet reap the same rewards because some pikers on a replica forum kick and scream if a watch goes up by a hundred bucks? They bought the juice like all businesses have to and now that they have it they are recouping their investment as they see fit. Somebody has to pay and others shouldn't get a free ride. There will be more too. There are watches in the pipe right now that will be exclusive to them unless others pay for the priveledge. Even in illegal business competition isn't free. You want in - you PAY and suck it up. And yes, it IS gangster [censored]. All business is - at least any that survive. The whole industry is controlled by the mafia which we all know as well. So let's see, those smaller dealers are sqeaky clean and have no part in the evil side of that biz? Yeah right. There is no morality carwash here guys. Fresh out of soap. And again, it is just a cheap ass knockoff watch. The notion of trying to figure out the who, what, where, and how from several continents away is absurd. Somebody has to win and somebody has to lose. Big business is brutal. Oh and our loyalties are to ourselves let's be honest. If the prices were going down nobody would give a crap about the players or their infighting. Just like the crude issue. Being a trader these things are particularly important to me of course but the issue is the same. Prices go up and the "majority" as you say, call for bans on large speculators. Just crush the entire free market without a second thought. Off with their heads. And why - because it is right or grounded in any truth at all? Nope. Cause' it cost people a hundred bucks to fill up their gas tank and they don't like it. That is the problem in the world today - particularly in America IMO. Everyone loves the free market when it makes them money and they pontificate about it until your ears hurt, but then if a fu*k*ng pizza goes up by two dollars they all become temporary armchair socialists. Dominos has unfair competition because they cornered fu*ki&ng cheese or something with child labor. Meanwhile it is just that Pizza Hut is [censored] that they didn't cop the same money. Same issue here. It's all about bucks and it is half of what we all hear day in and day out and it is terminally boring. So like I said, withour RWI those two will be bigger than ever and there will be new exclusives and then the same endless morality debate circle will start again and in the end, people will want the latest greatest and the money will flow to the party that fronted the cash to make it possible whether it is Josh or Andy or someone else and as that happens the little guy will get squashed again. Zero sum game. Somebody wins, somebody loses, but in the end you all will get your watch...

Let me weigh in with another angle here guys. I have never really looked at the price issue as I guess I have always felt the 1:1 watches were always priced fair - even at the so called inflated prices. No flames please - just my opinion. Anyway, I also have opinions about the admin at RWI which I will keep to myself so I am not going to play judge or jury as to whether what happened to Josh and Andrew was fair and I really don't care. For the record I also happen to like Josh in particular a lot, but trust me, if he didn't service me or give me great products for what I think is a fair price that love would change. Same goes for AD's or whoever else. Just business. I have no interest in defending him though and that is not the purpose of this post, so again, no flames about who we like as dealer's please. Let's not beat that horse anymore... Anyway, I will say that banning them was pointless as it won't hurt their business and from another angle it may do more harm than good for many of you who don't buy from them. One thing that never really got discussed was their motivation related to the so called price fixing and exclusivity. Most all of the best replicas made today are born out of the 1:1 projects which are the brainchild of Josh and Andrew. The GMTIIc is a great example. They purchase a genuine watch and make a deal with a factory to have a stake in the project. The factory also knows that they are the highest volume dealers so it is a marriage made in heaven. At the end of the day it is all about whether he factory is covering the huge equipment costs place up front which is required to make these creations. We are talking about dozens of half million dollar CNC machines here guys and the costs are astronomical. If they can demonstrate the abilty to partner up with them on the watch and move the majority of a 1000 piece run wholesale it is game over. Just trying to play devil's advocate mostly but you need top consider that all it would take is a meeting with the factory and some wholesale pre-sales and now they have control of the entire market for any 1:1 project they finance. Price fixing (or setting)? You bet. Please don't take this the wrong way guys, but if I was those guys I would make my deal with the factory on those watches exclusive and sell every one of them for $700. And the market is there. We all have to be careful of being "myopic" about replicas on these boards. I mean, we are the "in crowd" and as a result we pay less at the retail level than 99% of the replica watch market. I think there are many here that take that for granted and think that these are retail prices. They are not. At $400 for one of these pieces you are really paying wholesale. The end of the chain for these watches is a $1000+ price point. Anyone who found there way here from Ideal Watches or somewhere knows that. In any market there are always different price levels to pay the middles. It is unavoidable. Just because you are buying as close to "direct" as possible, don't discount that these watches are extremely expensive to make in terms of front money and those in control of that are going to want to get payed a LOT for revolutionizing the industry. Whether you like him or not, Josh has and is continuing to contribute to that with these projects. When you have a product as blindingly good as these latest creations there is going to be major money invloved and positioning for a monopoly if you want to call it that. But if it is his project, why shouldn't he control it? Price setting is not price fixing. Everyone of us here would try to make as much money as we could too if it were our deal. I say good for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull the ropes in and make his 1:1 exclusive at the retail level real soon. Then those watches are going to cost a lot more than $400. And if the smaller dealers want in they can do the same by financing their own watch projects with buying the gen and some equipment and partnering with the factories in the same way. More power to them if they can. As for the banning I'm sure not many on any of the boards could care less and neither do they. I'm sure RWI thinks they did the community a favor. I think they are gravely mistaken and it may have just shown Josh and Andrew that they need to take steps to lock these projects up even tighter and seek more and more distribution to higher paying customers instead of dicking around with one lots from these boards. If I were them I would rather leave all the boards and sell 30 watches to Blowmereplica.com for $400 who in turn sells them for $1200. They won't be complaining - especially if they can't get the watch anywhere else. And they don't have to service them or eat shipping because a bezel is a millimeter off. That has just got to suck, no? We all better get ready because this will be the end result. I'm sure in the future more dealers will rise to power and do projects with factories individually just as they have if they have the dough. Josh and Andrew are just the first in line and the most heeled up to do so right now. In the future, you are going to see that not every watch will be available from every dealer and as a result the prices will be higher. This is all just standard industrial revolution stuff and is exactly as it should be. No different that what happened with textiles in Europe long ago when they had their IR. Anyway, take it as you like. Just presenting another way of looking at the big picture... .02

Ah yes, me too. I love the RL a lot too. Maybe we need both brother...

Yup. My gen collection has really grown recently due to some changes in my professional life but I still love it here. I happen to agree that gens give me something I can't get from reps. It is an intangibile quality. Swiss watches are made with care and love and those details never happen in China. It isn't about accuracy. Like I always say, a nice watch is a nice watch, rep or gen, but BT is right, the difference is there. The real question is really whether the individual can justify the cost or not and that decision is really not a financial one. I know guys that think gens are overpriced and no matter how much extra money they have they wouldn't buy a gen if a near perfect rep is available. I'm kinda the other way. If I'm looking for an emotional response I will spend my last dollar on the gen no matter if there is a great rep or not. The most knowledgable watch nuts like Bytor and my other friends are what keep me coming back. I'm down to three reps now and I don't have any plans to buy more right now but I will I'm sure. There is always something. Like right now I am getting bitten by the homage PAM bug and I want to build up a fleet of those with different cases, movements, and different colored dials and lume. You won't find that anywhere but the rep world even though I guess they are not reps. Even if I can afford more gens now than when I first came here I still learn the most about what I like in a watch for cheap by buying reps and modding them, etc. I find that in doing this i see what really moves me and if I feel the need to go the extra step I get the gen. I can honestly say I figured out what I did and didn't like about nearly every design from either buying are just being here and reading. It is silly to just buy a lot of gen watches until you really know you are going to love them. Take it from me. Reps=learning and if you are really serious about watches you will always be here. Plus, I am living proof that you don't have to buy a lot of reps to give and take a lot to and from this forum.

For those liking the Patek Calatrava and other two hand slim pieces, may I suggest something with the same theme, even more refined and certainly less fragile. That is one problem with Patek's that has kept me from ever considering one. While classic and pretty and elegant, they really are very delicate. Kinda like a Ferrari. They gotta be in the shop a lot. I am partial to Porsche cause you can drive 'em into the ground and barely have to put oil in them. LOL Anyway, The VC Patrimony is a respectable 40MM so it stands up a little better. It comes in manual and auto with small seconds or date respectively. Here is a nice shoot of one on TZ: http://forums.timezone.com/index.php?t=tre...75801&rid=0

Gen Ti Aquatimer...the ole standby. Still surprised they stopped at the Slevin and didn't rep this one.