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Shundi

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Everything posted by Shundi

  1. Hahaha...I hear ya... I'll just do what I've been doing: Taking those quarterly div payments and using a good portion to buy metals I'm in a few ADR's too...some are doing MUCH better than others... pharmaceuticals seem to be fairly content so long as they've got decent pipelines and IPs... Pfizer got screwed when the Norvasc patent expired in 07 but they've got ~7% dividend and they're attractive right now... In terms of div yielding stocks I'm heavy into: BMY RDS DOW FCX PFE VZ GE - Non Financial - Dividend of at least 7% (Only taxed at 15%- as you're well aware) - Surplus of cash to ensure (or at least, as sure as you can be these days) continuous divided payments - Trading within 10% of their trailing 52 week low price I actually attended a conference / presentation with one of the Sr. VP's for GE's asset management division whose speciality was international stocks... crazy what type of gain a 20% international diversification will get you...
  2. Indeed... I've also been in companies with big copper stakes too... copper prices are heading the same way and with China and India expanding the way they are, they're going to need all the raw materials they can get...FCX is an interesting stock...it's down right now, has a huge surplus of cash (to keep paying me that 8.6% dividend ) and it's got the lion's share of copper in the US... might be worth taking a look at.. I was into platinum for a bit but I feel that there's a reason for the term "gold standard." You're absolutely right- people always turn to gold in this type of economy but I feel silver and copper are worth looking into also (copper more than silver IMO) Edit to add: Dividend Yield
  3. Cool! Looking forward to the dial and case!
  4. Yeah chief you must have brought near the same time I did... $400 seemed like it was really, really high, I know many who said stay away... I understand your point and I really think the US needs to suck it up, stop sending out foreign aid, get out of the wars, shrink the bureaucracy and start making the long, painful trip back to true solvency. Unfortunately, for all our freedoms, elections and such our politicians can't come out and say this because they'd have their asses handed to them by the vast majority of their uneducated, fat, in debt constituents. CPI not using oil etc has always [censored] me off and the GDP numbers are fairly absurd... that being said I think there are plenty of US companies with various IPs and assets which will allow them to weather the storm...I guess my point is that sure, the economy is in the [censored], but the actions of our own government with regards to regulating such businesses and improperly managing debt to the point where our government is like a larger version of GM is much, MUCH more detrimental than the way many private corporations act...sorry if that didn't come out in my earlier posts...it seems like we're saying the same thing- I believe that it's going to be the actions and debts of the government vs private enterprises that have to do with the lion's share of the current and future crisis... Sure the financial industry managed a royal [censored]up but as others have said, some of the current private stuff pales in comparison to selling the Chinese our debt and blowing billions on a war we didn't need to fight while neglecting one we arguably should be fighting.
  5. Oh I like it... adds more pop on the bracelet end...kinda blingy though
  6. I seem to remember King being recommended for such things...never dealt with her myself so can't speak as to that but I know she was purported to be able to source just about any DateJust dial...might be worth a shot with the President
  7. Damn how'd I miss this one! Another thing is that Buffet almost always gets Preferred stock which is paid a higher dividend and is entitled to liquidation proceeds before common stock - in essence: even if whatever company Buffet is invested in tanks, he gets paid before 99% of the other share holders Interesting stuff Robbie...
  8. I agree about the dollar going down soon and I realize (more than many) the issues with the current system of fiat currency and the inflation happy government we have but I will say that the US economy isn't "bad" in the sense that the entire GDP etc, etc is completely artificial... the US will recover at some point due to certain "Core" businesses and, I believe, drastic government intervention. I do agree that the USD's status as the currency of choice is waning in favor of the Yen (it won't be the Euro, I'll tell you that). As chief mentioned, the housing bubble, the speculation, the greed we saw starting in the 70's and continuing even until today have been etching away at investor confidence for the last 30 years and with the latest round of over-inflated asset and commodity collapses, we're seeing the stone rolling over the hill if you will. I was fortunate enough to invest in a number of maple leafs and some eagles before the Iraq War (2) started in...what 2002-2003? Thankfully I had the guidance and advice to move to non-fiat derivatives... Re: consumer spending: I agree that the way we've allowed debt to grow is absurd. I also think it's unfortunate we outsourced so much manufacturing... manufacturing gives raw materials value...it allows control and refinement of upstream industries and is really the heart of any consumption-driven economy... in our quest for higher profit margins and lower consumer cost, we outsourced most of our manufacturing to China, India, and South East Asia. My point regarding multinationals is that they're actually "safer" in some regards than purely domestic industries...they have more foreign investments, they have assets and shells in other countries, they have some "mobility" in the sense that they're not "tied down" to one particular country or economy and thus may be able to weather the storm on the home front. That being said, companies are panicking to the point of irrationality. Consider this- when the [censored] started to really hit the fan, companies and individuals flocked to US Treasury bonds... you'd actually lose money if you brought a US T bond right now if you consider the yield vs inflation- the yields have been driven down and the price of bonds has gone up... Now, I think we'll start to see bond rates come up and prices on bonds come down due to the gov't printing money like it's air and the potential slack in demand but that means no one in their right mind would buy a bond NOW if they think prices will be lower in 6-18 months right? Any current income gain would be erased by capital losses... Reits are suffering, retail is suffering...we'll see what happens. While our economy might not have the same "stability" it had during the Great Depression, I do not think the US economy is totally dead... but make no mistake, we're heading into what could become a major depression and as Buffet said: the days of 18-30% gains are over. The classic 30-50 year old "recommended" investment portfolio breakdown has around 60% stock, 20% cash, 10-20% bonds and 0-10% alternative investments (REITS, MLPs, Annuities, etc)... I've been advising something like 40% cash derivatives (liquid so Money Market, ST CD's, corporate paper, etc), 20% metals, 30% stock (20% international, 80% domestic) and 10% in bond mutuals / alternatives but that's just what's worked for me... All in all, I think the US domestic economy and, as an extension, USD is going to have a major impact on the way the world handles this crisis... I am absolutely shocked at the leverage ratios of some European companies and how...well...just terrible they're doing. I think you're also going to have another month like last month in Feb-March when companies start to report abysmal holiday sales and targets... You're also going to see GM, with only $16 billion in cash on hand and churning through it at something like $6 billion a month (not sure on that stat), in crisis mode and ready to drag down the Big 3 and their suppliers, etc. Despite all this, things will pick up again at some point - the USA isn't going to go bankrupt... the powers that be may need to start another world war over oil or something but I'm not sure we're Zimbabwe just yet. But hey, cheap gas right!
  9. No insult taken... I agree that our lack of manufacturing is most alarming and the credit swaps and debt pyramid is, as you say, musical chairs. I also am concerned about SS, Medicare, and ARM's resetting within the next few years... I do believe, however, that many of our large multinationals and have fairly diversified risk portfolios and are properly leveraged...it's just a matter of panic. I guess it depends on the criteria you're using to evaluate the economy... my personal take on it is that we'll come out of this..it just might take a few years.... I do hope that it teaches the US a lesson about risk management (not to mention sovereign fund managers and international companies who invest in our markets).
  10. Beautiful....just beautiful! Thanks for writing that up...might be on my list!
  11. I think that's pretty well said... I was working on an enterprise valuation for a fortune 1000 company we're looking at and without getting too technical this company's share price was so absurdly low based on its book value and financials that you'd be nuts NOT to buy it...but that's what's happening... people have lost confidence, stocks have tanked, and now people see that the US economy is fundamentally strong and are purchasing instruments to capitalize on the growth everyone thinks we'll see within the next 5 years
  12. Even if you could post what is engraved (if for some reason you can photograph it) If the inside of the caseback or the movement says something like "Montres Tudor SA" (generally on the rotor for Tudors) you'll know... I would bet that's a gen dial but it might be a Tudor mov't and case.... (I picked up one like this). If it's a Tudor caseback it'll say something like "Oyster Case Made By Rolex" or something like that...not sure of the exact terminology...
  13. @all: I haven't seen the phone so I won't speak as to it's quality... I know the Vertus were beautiful (From user pics and reviews) and I think Sql is a great guy for offering such products on the forum... @Slay: I totally agree with you here... the chances that Nokia or Coach or Gucci or Hermes or Vertu...whatever managed to either: 1. Have someone steal from their highly guarded, stringently controlled manufacturing plants or 2. (this is a good one I see on many sites) have somehow convinced an Italian craftsman at Gucci or Fendi or something to come to China to produce handbags with the same stitching as the original etc, etc is just pure fable... the chances of this happening are less than nill I mean...we know certain dealers would literally tell you they were Jesus Christ if it would sell a wooden cross... no, I don't think for one second that anything sold out of or produced in China has original craftsmen from the above brands toiling away in a sweatshop to make replica goods...
  14. The economy might be a "mess" but it's the result of actions in the financial industry and the resulting panic....there are many, many companies whose stocks are falling simply because consumers don't have confidence in much of anything right now... regardless, the US economy is still fundamentally strong and I think we're going to see a lot of these losses reverse themselves as consumer and investor confidence increase... about a year ago I was out to dinner with some European friends and their business associates... one of them actually laughed in my face and told me that stupid Americans had doomed the US economy and that I should consider transferring my assets to Europe and purchasing Euros... I sent him a polite email a few weeks ago inquiring as to how the bank he works for in the EU is doing right now... It's very easy to criticize US corporations for this current situations but at the same time, EU banks and corporations were purchasing and issuing some very risky derivatives and were wayyy over leveraged... another reason that the GAAP to IASB standards transition has now been pushed back to something like 2013 (haven't really followed it so not sure that's the year)... We'll see, things will rebound but- as usual - the economy generally shits the bed much, much faster than it recovers from it
  15. I've had stuff like that before...sucks for those who haven't found this site yet!
  16. Saw that too Nanuq... this might have something like a calibre 1030 in it...might also be a franken Tudor... can you post pictures of the caseback, the writing on the inside of the caseback, and the movement if possible? Might be able to make a more educated guess with that...
  17. Predictions are that even though the Japanese economy is effectively in a recession, the Yen will be the dominant currency for the next 5 or so years.... we'll see what happens...at some point dealers are going to have to move their stock.
  18. Looks like something Hellboy would wear...
  19. The Zigmeister, Interesting to hear... I always figured the movements on phong's site would be fairly well-preserved and functional...especially considering the price. I had a newer member PM me about these watches/movements a few days ago and haven't responded yet...I'll be sure to point him in the direction of this thread as a warning... Thanks for posting this!
  20. I'm sure Rob will take to it like a fish to water...within a few months he'll be consulted by everyone for his expertise in technical theory and application...he'll make sure everything is executed to the highest of tolerances....be swamped with questions from new dancers, have jealous "professionals" make hollow threats against his innovative methods and precision... Oh wait Rob, I have a feeling you've been through this before! Just enjoy it and hang on for the ride of your life
  21. Hold it to your ear... I'll call you and we'll chat for a few minutes. If the lights go off and you're glowing like super luminova, we've got a problem...
  22. You mean like the radiation output? That's a good point...
  23. Reported..and in terms of legality it's copyright infringement
  24. Just about sums it up...
  25. Looks awesome avitt! Kinda wanna do my new Seiko Orange Knight in this...
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