Tulipmania

[freddy333]

Good points, Ubi. But it still seems to me that a market's rise or fall is wholly dependent on perceived value by a large group (the herd). And this perceived value likely has little to do with the real or assigned value of a thing. This is why a simple flower can be worth a pittance 1 day, be worth the price of a large estate the next & then nearly valueless the day after that.

[ubiquitous]

And that's more or less what I had implied, but maybe didn't properly convey in my post.

As a whole, the collector's world really drives the market force, and collectors can be a fickle bunch.

The point I was making above is that the values of such watches will depend entirely on whether such watches are complete, boxed/documented/all original... Collectors as we know like their watches original, unpolished, minty, etc. But when such watches require maintenance, service, replacement parts, etc. the value of such examples can drop significantly if a non-genuine replacement part (or even a gen replacement part not of the same standard; i.e. a rare MKI or whatever dial replaced with a newer dial or steel insert as opposed to a bakelite insert on a 6542), a watch's value can decrease by substantial amounts. The more and more this kind of practice goes widespread throughout the current vintage line (since 727's and 15xx movments are on that teetering edge), the more we'll see higher premiums for all original, working and documented pieces, or fall out of interest from collectors as finding/maintaining/sustaining such pieces will become problematic with the only possible outlet to keeping a watch in original condition will require buying parts from the secondary market; if Rolex is no longer servicing those watches (some still do, some don't) and parts are not as available, those holding such parts on the secondary market will be able to develop their own premium prices for such parts. This will inherently either drive prices of those 'all correct' watches up, or people looking to cash in on the Rolex phenominon will become frustrated/disillusioned with the pricing structures of the secondary market and find something else to put their money into. If those selling such pieces have no buyers... Prices will crash.

[Ronin]

I think you hit the nail on the head Ubi. With the years to come, and parts scarcity-- our vintage sports models I fear will be reduced to:

1.) $$$$$ All Original, Fully Documented/Packaged

2.) $$$$ All Original, possible missing some documentation or packaging

3.) $$$$ Well maintained, possibly with service parts, but fully documented

4.) $$$ Well maintained, but service parts detracted from original model, missing docs/packaging.

5.) $$ Genuine turned Hodge-podge/Franken as the result of unavailability of parts.

6.) $ Franken's built by the likes of us, Phong, NDT, Yuki, DW, etc.

Crazy thing is-- shopping in category 4 through 6 above may be the sweet spot for people who like to wear watches and not be afraid to wear -vs- Vaulted/Winder-Queens. ???

...Imagine a program where you get good solid trade in for your old Rolex, then Rolex takes the old watch and destroys it completely! They employ folks that go to pawn shops, watch shows, go on Ebay, etc., buying up all they can for the purpose of destroying it, thereby ensuring, once and for all, THE only way to get a Rolex, is to buy it from them.

@southcoast68 ^^ That could blow up in their face as a PR nightmare. Imagine the headlines: "Rolex buying up their old vintage watches, destroying, to control market value".

[ubiquitous]

I suppose the short and sweet of it all is- If the all original, all documented and working grail piece are fewer and fewer on the market due to replacement parts during service to keep them going, how likely are those values going to sustain? If the support to maintain those watches isn't there from an official standpoint (i.e. RSCs), then what guarantee will there be that pieces remain all original in terms of parts content, etc?

Price correction/compression may take effect at that point... Afterall this ain't vintage Patek, a company that actually cares about their history (with stratospheric prices to reflect that interest and vintage support). Rolex is over 100 years old... You'd think they'd leverage that history and build it into their marketing campaign like the other watch brands that could only wish for such heritage... Instead, they'd rather you buy a new hideous Sub or oversized Day-Date that has little to do with what Rolex is really about, and more to do with blending in with current trend.

[Dizzy]

I dont understand why rolex HQ seems to shun their history and not support their vintage historical watches, while at the same time its these exact watches that made Rolex what it is today, and in my opinion keeps the brand alive. Any company can stamp out a high end watch these days (even the chinese with back yard CNC machines and fake parts) so why doesnt Rolex embrace their heritage and embrace the history that kept them on the map over the past 40 years?

Rolex should continue to service vintage pieces and continue to make replacement parts. It will still be the 100% orig pieces with box, papers and original dials and hands that will command the premium $$$, but at the same time allow us regular folk to still be able to wear a historical vintage sport watch and not have to worry if that 40 year old eBay T-39 is going to keep your 1665 dry in the shower

Dizz

[TeeJay]

Here's another way of looking at it... A navy pilot wearing a Rolex (of some kind) has to eject over an enemy city. Chances are, they would be able to get a good cash price for their watch (assuming the vendor doesn't turn them over to State Police ) which would reflect the perceived value of said Rolex watch. Now suppose the same pilot has to eject over a sparcely populated aboriginal area... They're going to be on foot for days and days, and when they do reach other people, all those people might be able to offer for the watch might be a bowl of rice and a place to sleep, technically reducing the value of said watch to pennies.

[ubiquitous]

I dont understand why rolex HQ seems to shun their history and not support their vintage historical watches

Simply put- Rolex would rather see vintage collectors put their 40 year old Subs in the moth balls and instead go out and buy a new Submariner. Rolex would rather you spend $6000.00 on a new Submariner instead of receiving $600 revenue via an RSC for servicing of an old 5512. Rolex would rather not produce parts for a 40 year old movement when they can focus on producing parts for new watches that bring in more revenue.

I suppose Rolex doesn't really have to bank on their heritage; the name Rolex is widely known and even people that have zero interest or knowledge in watches know what a Rolex is.

[TeeJay]

Simply put- Rolex would rather see vintage collectors put their 40 year old Subs in the moth balls and instead go out and buy a new Submariner. Rolex would rather you spend $6000.00 on a new Submariner instead of receiving $600 revenue via an RSC for servicing of an old 5512. Rolex would rather not produce parts for a 40 year old movement when they can focus on producing parts for new watches that bring in more revenue.

I suppose Rolex doesn't really have to bank on their heritage; the name Rolex is widely known and even people that have zero interest or knowledge in watches know what a Rolex is.

Absolutely spot on (Your grasp of the situation, not the situation itself, which really deserves a big for their Corporate Greed )

[ubiquitous]

Well, their goal is to make money And they seem to do so quite well. In the big picture, they'd rather focus on the people that buy Rolex for the image it represents; in contrast the collector's segment is a small niche in relative terms when compared to the global market of people who will buy a new Rolex sinply for having a Rolex (with no real interest in the oldies, the history, etc). Few of those folks end up becoming involved in the brand and discovering the vintage stuff, but I am sure that this figure is probably pretty low in the ratio.

Even vintage collectors buy new pieces every now and then... They gotta have their beaters, right?

[TeeJay]

Well, their goal is to make money And they seem to do so quite well. In the big picture, they'd rather focus on the people that buy Rolex for the image it represents; in contrast the collector's segment is a small niche in relative terms when compared to the global market of people who will buy a new Rolex sinply for having a Rolex (with no real interest in the oldies, the history, etc). Few of those folks end up becoming involved in the brand and discovering the vintage stuff, but I am sure that this figure is probably pretty low in the ratio.

I think you're quite right there, and a good example of that 'I want a Rolex for the sake of having a Rolex' mindset is well demonstrated here by those who post looking for 'the best sub', but never post again once they've got their answer. It's a common phenomenon, and I'd say the amount of times that question comes up, is probably a good example of how many folks in the real world gen market might think the same thing (after all, it was trying on a gen Sub which first made me look into getting a rep instead...) Of course, the varying aesthetics of the vintage models is definitely going to appeal to those with an overall interest in watches (or maybe just offer a different 'set of options' for the person choosing a single watch) but for the most part, I would definitely agree that Rolex is aiming to focus less on retention of existing customers, but more on acquiring new customers who will buy a new watch. As you say though, their goal is to make money, so I guess they're succeeding

Even vintage collectors buy new pieces every now and then... They gotta have their beaters, right?

That's what the safe queens should have been used for