Annual Revenue

[Paulza]

Please bear with me, a lot of educated guesses here

So having ordered a few reps from the TDs was intrigued to see the order numbers. Assuming these are consecutive my order number 50515 would mean that thats the number of watches sold by that TD to date.

If the average price for a watch was say $200 that's $10m in sales to date. Some TDs order numbers are around the 70k mark so more like $14m to date

I am guessing that there are 15 to 20 TD across all the rep forums. Let's say 15 TD at an average of $10m per TD. So that's $150m in sales to date.

Not sure how long the TDs have been around but if it's 10 years then average total annual sales in this market is $15m

Unknown factors that would be interesting to know

1) what are the TDs mark up%. If it's 30% and based on the above would mean $300k in his pocket or $25k per month (less expenses)

2) what other channel they distribute through to get to there order numbers, ie what % of there sales are generated by forums

I am sure that the total replica market (Esp the cheap rubbish) world wide is much bigger than this but just thinking of our TDs

Anyway just glad to be doing my part in job creation in China!

[508-Fanatic]

Paul - I have an old college friend who does a lot of business in China - he got to know a guy who's a low-quality rep dealer just in greater Asia and the dude lives like a king there... grosses at least $400k a year USD. My buddy's only watch is a legit modern no-date Sub and he compared it with this guys product and said it was rubbish...but he sells a ton of them at $75-or so a pop. More repeat business I guess when they only last 6-8 months before the hands fall off haha

[tomhorn]

Well, first of all you can't assume the numbers are consecutive, and even if they are, you don't know how far back they go. Could be a day, month or year. Could be since they started with the current software.

 

Many sytems that have transaction ID's actually use check-digits for this very reason (so people can't figure out order numbers). Either at the front or back. If the TD you are talking about is using them, you could instead be looking at 5051 or 0515 orders.

 

I have no doubt the rep watch market is probably in the billions of USD per year, but I doubt there is any way you could extrapolate that total from one order number at one TD ...

[danielv2000]

I have wondered this myself... Probaby more revenues than the gen manufacturers,

[Guest kingfrog]

I would bet the single largest expense thay have is buying Gens to copy. That is a lot of gens. Unless they can copy from photographs. I would bet their movements are the same used in Armitron watches at Wal Mart for the quartz watches. The automatics are hit and miss. Especially the 7750s Chronos. But people are spending $700 for some watches. So there is major bread being made by someone. $700US  is a lot of spending power in China

Edited January 9, 2015 by kingfrog

[HaydenM]

I would bet the single largest expense thay have is buying Gens to copy. That is a lot of gens. Unless they can copy from photographs. I would bet their movements are the same used in Armitron watches at Wal Mart for the quartz watches. The automatics are hit and miss. Especially the 7750s Chronos. But people are spending $700 for some watches. So there is major bread being made by someone. $700US  is a lot of spending power in China

I think a lot of people call bullsh!t on the "made with gen as sample" as it's often said on watches that there is no chance that it's true. Nobody really buys quartz reps (well not in our rep market) so the movements do add to a bit of the price (the retail for an asian 2824-2 is about $100) 

[lukenorris2011]

Well you do hear stories about factory owners driving around in ferraris and lambos etc.

No matter what they do to show the media and public they are clamping down, I know a daughter of a very powerful Chinese businessman and believe me the £ they have still influences political figures like no other.

Life's a [censored], then you marry one!

[Nightwatch]

Just assume the "gens" are either well-worn or broken, even if recent. I would suppose in 90% of the cases they are disassembled, parts copied, re-assembled and re-sold.

And this is done just by the first, the others copy the rep (including the flaws) as soon as it´s out, maybe improving one or the other thing comparing to pictures.

While some of the larger TDs certainly make those numbers, most are still on a much smaller scale. Even that should allow for a yearly income in the mid-fives to the low-sixes but it´s a job that requires a lot of flexibility, constant presence and it´s very time consuming if TDs want to keep at least some standards.

[Iguc]

Just assume the "gens" are either well-worn or broken, even if recent. I would suppose in 90% of the cases they are disassembled, parts copied, re-assembled and re-sold.

And this is done just by the first, the others copy the rep (including the flaws) as soon as it´s out, maybe improving one or the other thing comparing to pictures.

While some of the larger TDs certainly make those numbers, most are still on a much smaller scale. Even that should allow for a yearly income in the mid-fives to the low-sixes but it´s a job that requires a lot of flexibility, constant presence and it´s very time consuming if TDs want to keep at least some standards.

Yes, I think only the big ones who have their own websites with a large amount of staff are bringing in six figures. The rest are brining in hi fives lol and low sixes. Most TDs have a lot of headaches and have numerous orders to keep track off, easily 100+ emails/pms per day