An observation...

[automatico]

I have followed VRF since its inception and am now noticing a lot of watches that I call 'junk watches or parts watches' being Ooed and Awed at by VRF posters wanting an 'expert opinion' on them. "Should I buy it?" etc not noticing or saying anything about the chop marks on the lugs (missed swing with a wood chopper axe maybe?), the 'talcum powder' lume on the markers, the corrosion on the case back 1.5mm deep, or the razor thin crown guards...not to mention ratty looking movements.   What's wrong with these nubs? Are they so desperate to own a Vintage Rolex! that they will pay good $$ for parts watches?   I guesso.   If it was me, I would figure I was too late to play in the game and sit it out.

When the same watches that cost $450 new and sold for $2000 or $2500 15 years ago in good condition (5512/13, 1680 etc) are going for $8k to $10k and 'parts watches' of the same ref numbers now going for $5k or $6k...where does it end? Will prices on good watches continue to rise?   Probably.

More questions:  1...Will these junk watches take the place of good watches and experience big price increases?   2...Has the bar been lowered that far?   3...Will these characters wise up?   4...Will high grade replicas and Frankensteins pick up much of the slack?

I say:  1...Yes.   2...Yes.   3...No   4...Yes, but there is no way to know for sure.

'Nub' = dumber than a noob.

[Mike on a bike]

As I know little of the market hard for me to say but as with anything scarcity will increase cost and yes also lower acceptable standards to attain product as far as our good stuff becoming more prevalent I would say yes.

[508-Fanatic]

This is bits from a convo I had with Sogeha on here. I hope he doesn't mind me sharing it, because I think he made a great point.

My thoughts:

I'm curious about the Franken market, ups and downs and such. I know some extreme watch freaks out there, like the guys at HQ Milton, Paul Altieri at Bob's Watches and Ben Clymer at Hodinkee, Bob Maron - I've talked to them all, and they're of the opinion that Franken's should be crushed just like $200 rep's.

They drive the secondary market and are the current "knowledge-base" so that tide-turn might come much later than we think... they'd have to appreciate mechanical charm and build, and the parts and get out of their head that original #'s matching doesn't always mean the watch is worthless.. Look at classic bikes/cars.

If you send a Franken to Paul, you'll get a watch back with "REPLICA" engraved on your inner or outer caseback, depending on the mood he's in. 

Sogeha's thoughts:

I remember when a franken Ferrari 250 was treated the way top quality franken watches are. Basically they are the same thing. Some genuine parts from a lesser model that are identical or can be made so and some replica parts. A 250 GTO is what 30 Million Stering whatever that is in Dollars, a California or SWB is a solid 20. Those replicas are now accepted on historic rallies and races partly because nobody is going to risk a 30 Million car in racing. The prices and demand for the frankens is solid despite Ferrari not recognising them. 

Rolex is never going to recognise "put together watches" it doesn't suit the imagine they wish for. But the same thing will happen. A top end 5513 gilt is now 20. How many people are happy having that on their wrist everyday? When they hit 50? I wouldn't spend that on a watch but I could if I really wanted. Probably you could if you wanted it badly enough, but would you wear it on the bus? I know I wouldn't. Plus as genuine watches increase  in value, genuine parts will track them or maybe outdo them. Rolex is seriously limiting access to genuine parts and even Rolex doesn't have parts for vintage watches.

The guys you mention. I don't know any of them, but I know of all of them. They all make a living selling watches and they are all "bigging up" stuff they wouldn't have touched ten years ago. Hodinkee in particular bangs the drum for a watch for a while, then low and behold they just happen to find a few to sell at the newly inflated price they created.

[lumbee]

The price swing is the same as with antique/vintage cars. Collectors are driving the price of junkers to ridiculous levels. A 64 1/2 Mustang sold new for $1995.00. A rusted shell with no running gear can sell now for 5 to 10 grand! Collectors are driving the vintage watch prices as well...nouveau ruche with loads to spend feel like they must have a vintage Sub and will pay any price for it. This causes the overall price to rise a=on all of the vintage watches. The sad thing is most of them aren't ever worn. They buy them and stick them in a safe somewhere.

Then there are the smart folks who love the smaller 34mm Rolexes and buy then used and worn out. If you can't overhaul the movement it only costs around $500 to $700 to have it done. This includes refinishing the case. So, for less than 2 grand you have a great vintage Rolex and thumb your nose at those guys paying top dollar for junkers.

[freddy333]

The term 'Rolex' & phrase 'too much' are often mutually exclusive.

[automatico]

508's post is very enlightening and  "...would you wear it on the bus? "  is a winner. 

Most of  the 'Big Time' watch guys I know/knew are past their prime in the market and when I was trading watches, a super nice 5513 or 1680 was $1500 or $1800 to buy. I am behind the times now due to lack of interest (and $$) but I can tell when prices are getting out of bounds. 

I bet most of the dealers mentioned above have a 'secret mechanic' who swaps parts around from watch to watch and puts 'high dollar' watches together out of the best parts, all the guys I knew did. Out of all the 'Big Time' watch guys I knew...only one was basically honest and he had a professional 'detail guy' who turned average (mostly rolex) watches into 'near mint', a common practice. Imagine the expertise a 'vintage rolex specialist' is willing to employ when turning a $4k lemon/lime 1680 into a $15k creampuff.

Laser welding??  'Aged' replica parts in genuine vintage bracelets??  For sure.  

Thanks for the replies.

[jmb]

Makes me glad I haven't the money to worry about it!