Vacation time...

[automatico]

Is everyone on vacation?

I have been active on this forum since May 16, 2008 (started under another name before a server meltdown) and have never seen it this slooow. Only one post on the rolex forum in almost two days and 5 or 6 in general discussion.

What's going on?

 

Imho watches in general are rapidly dropping in popularity, especially mechanical watches. For proof (more or less) just read up on the swiss watch malaise, their business is down 30% or more overall and Richemont (Cartier, IWC, Montblanc etc) bought back almost a quarter $Billion (Billion with a B!) in watches etc from their retailers a few months ago (probably) to keep it from being deeply discounted or blown out on the internet. (see the article in Jan - Feb WatchTime magazine)

　

Why?

My guess is:

1...Mechanical watches and quartzy fashionista watches (Cartier etc) are expensive to buy.

2...They cost a small fortune to repair...IF you can get parts.

3...No one really needs the hassle.

4...Cell phones/smarty watches.

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not.

　

Now back to RWG...maybe the same maliase is affecting members here too. I know I am rapidly losing interest in mechanical watches (after 40+ years) mainly because I simply no longer need or want the hassles of a mechanical watch.

We (replica guys) have double trouble...all the mechanical watch hassles plus the fact that a depressing percentage of what we buy is, well...just plain junk to put it kindly.

 

Observations?

Edited March 24, 2017 by automatico

[bobandshawn]

I like this site very much - but have to say I'm rarely here because of the lack of traffic! Not sure why that is, but RWI always seems to have a fairly good "new posts" volume.

 

B

[Sogeha]

I think there is some truth that watches in general aren't as hot as they were. In some ways that might be a good thing, Vintage Rolex models started to attract investors and prices have gone up and up. Some online blogs fed the flames and pushed other makes. 

 

As to RWG, well the content is driven by members, if members aren't visiting or are visiting but not posting or starting threads, then yes it will be quiet. I would encourage everyone to post. Tell us what is going on on your workbench, what is in your watchbox, what you have ordered/taken delivery of recently. It doesn't need to be a jaw dropping build to be on of interest.

[panerai153]

Can't speak for the forum in general, but I seem to see a fair number of threads posted in general discussion that would be better served by posting in the brand forums. Right now two or three of the latest threads in GD are Rolex related.

I just read this morning that BaselWorld is down from around 1500 exhibitors to 1300. Of course they are spinning it as more severe vetting, culling out "fashion watches" and smart watches. But in the next paragraph they admit that several pretty significant brands are missing this year.

There are a lot of reasons, but bottom line is most of the luxury brands are seeing sales significantly down and trending downward more.

My personal observation, younger people are not drawn to mechanical watches. We have a niece who is here in the USA studying Architecture. Two years ago we got her a very nice gen Tag. This past Christmas we gave her and Apple Watch, guess which one she wears all the time? Answer, it isn't the Tag!! Second factor, the population age 40-50 which was driving the high end market 10-15 years ago are now in their mid 50's to mid 60's. This is the age where things like a 5-10K watch are not as important as their retirement account. From this I'm thinking that the mid to high end manufacturers are seeing their reliable base eroding as mechanical watch wearers opt out.

I doubt that this is really hurting certain brands like Rolex, Patek and a few others, but the lesser known brands that don't have a long and well known brand appeal are the ones I bet are getting hammered. Couple that with a lot of truly ugly watches, questionable reliability and sky high service prices and you can see problems for them.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[tframo]

Do you guys think the decline in interest and volume will cause prices to increase or decrease?  

[Sogeha]

Of reps? I think it will have little bearing. My understanding is that China is by far the biggest market and driving force of reps. The combined sales through all the fora is between 10-20% of the rep market.

[tframo]

59 minutes ago, Sogeha said:

Of reps? I think it will have little bearing. My understanding is that China is by far the biggest market and driving force of reps. The combined sales through all the fora is between 10-20% of the rep market.

Sorry.   I was referring to the gen market.  Retail and resale 

[jigelow]

As far as traffic here, this is normal for a message board after an update or code drop. When there are bugs that need to be worked out, people tend to be impatient during fixes. We're used to instant gratification in today's society, so when something isn't working, we go somewhere else. It'll come back to normal, but some of us will have to stimulate the forums to get that done. This would probably be a good time for a raffle. I don't have any watches to pitch in at the moment, but I'd be happy to donate funds for it.

 

As far as gen prices being impacted by popularity, I don't see it being substantial. Watch nuts like us will remain watch nuts. The ones with money will continue to drive up prices of whatever is popular at the moment (vintage Heuer seems to be the hot [censored] right now). We would likely see more of an impact on new watches and/or manufactures. There could be more consolidation (rumors have it Breitling isn't doing so hot) or there could be some companies that just go away. Those that survive will need to either make enough of an impact in terms of design to stay relevant or cut costs to compete.

[automatico]

"As far as traffic here, this is normal for a message board after an update or code drop."

 

The new sales forums for instance.  

 

"Watch nuts like us will remain watch nuts. The ones with money will continue to drive up prices of whatever is popular at the moment..."   

 

Agree.  Vintage rolex has been on top for a long time but eventually no spare parts, insane service charges, laser welded genuine junk cases, plus replica cases and dials getting so good will scare many away...or price them out of the market.  It did me, it's why I'm here.

[jigelow]

39 minutes ago, automatico said:

"As far as traffic here, this is normal for a message board after an update or code drop."

 

The new sales forums for instance.  

 

"Watch nuts like us will remain watch nuts. The ones with money will continue to drive up prices of whatever is popular at the moment..."   

 

Agree.  Vintage rolex has been on top for a long time but eventually no spare parts, insane service charges, laser welded genuine junk cases, plus replica cases and dials getting so good will scare many away...or price them out of the market.  It did me, it's why I'm here.

 

The sales forum, the page glitch. These are things that are expected with any technology update. Look, Apple has glitches with every new iPhone. It just comes with the territory. The difference is, when it comes to message boards, people want instant satisfaction. We have something unique in the close-knit community here that, frankly, isn't at the other forums. People will come back once the kinks get worked out - incentive to come back just expedites that process.

[highoeyazmuhudee]

Rolex will always remain the standard in swiss watches for the masses. the defacto brand name in high end watches. they may do a price freeze and discount 10% for the next couple years but i dont think theyll ever lower their advertised prices. other brands may have a hard time existing and very well lose funding from their parent companies or disappear altogether. JLC, panerai come to mind. Cartier is well diversified with other luxury products. patek is patek and will always have a specific buyer of their watches who represent maybe >10% of the market to begin with. hamilton and longines have always been cheap enough entry watches that people could always give them as anniversary gifts. there will always be people who appreciate mechanical watches and want to celebrate "antiquated" fashion. in the end when the dust settles, Rolex and Omega will always be standing tall.

just my thoughts, yours may differ