Will gens eventually lose their value?

[TeeJay]

I see the high end and low end rep markets driven by two different types of buyers; high end reps-purchased by more knowledgable people like RWG members (who not only can afford to buy gens but own several) and gen connoisseurs, then the low end reps whick I think attract an entirely different sucker for the most part. Very few people even know high end reps exist in comparison to the watch buying public at large.

I think that's very true. I think it's also amusing when people try and demonize reps by comparing them to gens, but only do so with the cheapest POS Canal St junk they can lay their hands on. I'd like them to try stopping a guy in the street, showing him a UPO and gen 2901.50.91 and being told which one was the replica. Infact, in a totally unbiassed test, with no input from the questioner, I doubt the everyday Joe Public even would guess which was which.

If any rep is going to have an effect on the value of gens it will be the high end ; my vote is this isn't even close to happening-the high end buying market is too small.

Again, I'd agree with that.

Then, what do I know, the only rep I own is a UPO in the mail somewhere between China and Texas! I'm a Texan wearing a gen Bvulgari. A freak in his own land, a watch unappreciated. Recently I was with a friend who got a compliment on his hideous POS fossil- I was wearing a vintage Sub and received no such appreciation (and I am way sexier too). Go figure, there's your low end rep buyer-they don't compete with Gen buyers.

Again, absolutely so, the everyday public aren't going to notice a watch like that, when compared to something like a Fossil, which is almost designed for maximum eyecatching effect. That said, it is nice to be able to wear a watch and not get asked "Is that real?", simply because the watch itself is largely unknown in the public eye

[Bark3rd]

Vino or not, if this is your 6th post and you have this to offer as anecdotes in future, I will be one of your most avid readers. You're like Saki, without the sake.

Thanks! (I think.....?)

Waking up veeery slooowwww today. 1st order of the day (day 6): go to perfect clones , get the tracking #, pull up ems.com.cn, and once again stare dumbfounded at the phrase "despatch at sorting center". Then, in despair, I will take the same tracking # to the USPS tracking site where it will only say "foreign acceptance".

Back to the window to look for the mailman. I will pass the time by periodically cupping my hand around my Bvlgari and checking out the lume.

[Richard Tracy]

I think the numbers on the whole, mirror the income divisions of a population.

8% of people control most of the wealth,..

Yes there are always people in high income levels that will invest their money into non-watch-related

areas, as for them, a watch is a watch, or a replica would serve the same purposes as a genuine,

also since the majority of people don't know a Jlc from a Vc.

However, most people that can afford high-ticket watches will purchase those,...

Rep makers sell the majority of their wares to the masses, that 90% + of people, who cannot afford the variety

of genuine, or the few branded pieces, that they would like to own.

Specifically however most are sold to, The Watch Aficionado,.. the vast majority of which, will spend the amount

of money which could purchase a few quality genuine pieces, on ten times the quantity of replicas....

An even rarer breed is the wealthy watch nut,.. That naturally would regard,.. Replicas as junk..

[mag1119]

What's up, Tee-Jay? You already know where I stand on this issue; it appears most everyone here has a slice of right. We probably do overestimate the number of reps vs. gens on the market, but that should serve only to highlight the expertise in our community at telling good from bad reps and buying accordingly. WE as a community are NOT making that big a dent in gen sales, and certainly not rep sales either. We probably DO represent a decent number of sales or the reps would not improve in quality or delivery to us, we do mean SOMETHING. The gen companies have more than a few reasons to not actively pursue the rep industry at this time; and if and when they DO, it will be the 2nd coming of the RIAA. It has to do with the closedness of this hobby in my opinion. Do you remember how hard it was for most of us to even FIND these sites and decent info? And WE were actively seeking it.! There aren't enough folks even aware of the quality that exists and is improving in the rep world for the economics to begin to affect the gen world. Also, as long as there are mechanical and material differences between gens and reps (especially on the quality side), not many people outside of our community would trade the pride and prestige often associated with gen ownership. Those are the gen buyers, with disposable income AND mindset for the genuine atricle. As long as the gen companies continue to reap profit from here, we are no threat to their market share. As rep quality improves (cosmetically AND mechanically) perhaps this may change. If you could consistently get 1:1 cosmetically, and mechanically, then that would be more of an issue for the gen makers. There are also the politics: you are not going to get the world's number 1 copy cat nation to just stop by politely asking. China is too important to the world economy for the watch industry to really call shots with them, yet. A lot of planets would have to shift and it would have to become important to the REST of the world to change how the Chinese are operating in the new global economy. Stop copying and repping? Stop repping what? Computers, electronics, clothes, watches, toys, medicines, where to start? This industry is so much of a machine for the total Chinese economy I don't see them pulling the plug unless REAL pressure were brought to bear. That being said, it is an improbability, NOT an IMPOSSIBILITY. Just as these Chinese made changes to join the global economy, there are countries and companies trying to bring pressures and laws against their behavior, one day they may gain some sway. So, the economy and marketplace itself may cause course correction we have no control over. This is the famous "get your reps NOW theory" before or if things were to change.

Last point. I do believe the growth of the rep industry has helped the prices of gens to stay as they have been for several years, all time highs, but not wild growth. This has as much to do with currency evaluation as anything else. Everything costs more, it's called inflation. As long as the numbers of reps increase, the gen is devalued. Not in such a manner that your 10K watch is worth $500.00 suddenly, but it ain't worth 12.5K either, the reps have something to do with that, if only to provide a counterpoint to gen pricing. When it affects the gen bottom line enough- they will react. Right now they do everything from bolster the rep prices, to ignoring the phenomonon, let them stay that way until we've collected all we can. I still have songs from my old Napster.

Edited December 2, 2007 by mag1119

[Victoria]

Thanks! (I think.....?)

Yes, a compliment! Take it, or leave it, bubeleh.

Waking up veeery slooowwww today. 1st order of the day (day 6): go to perfect clones , get the tracking #, pull up ems.com.cn, and once again stare dumbfounded at the phrase "despatch at sorting center". Then, in despair, I will take the same tracking # to the USPS tracking site where it will only say "foreign acceptance".

Back to the window to look for the mailman. I will pass the time by periodically cupping my hand around my Bvlgari and checking out the lume.

See. You have a writer's eye for setting the scene. I can almost see you cupping your hand over the Bvlgari now.

[TeeJay]

What's up, Tee-Jay? You already know where I stand on this issue; it appears most everyone here has a slice of right. We probably do overestimate the number of reps vs. gens on the market, but that should serve only to highlight the expertise in our community at telling good from bad reps and buying accordingly. WE as a community are NOT making that big a dent in gen sales, and certainly not rep sales either. We probably DO represent a decent number of sales or the reps would not improve in quality or delivery to us, we do mean SOMETHING. The gen companies have more than a few reasons to not actively pursue the rep industry at this time; and if and when they DO, it will be the 2nd coming of the RIAA. It has to do with the closedness of this hobby in my opinion. Do you remember how hard it was for most of us to even FIND these sites and decent info? And WE were actively seeking it.! There aren't enough folks even aware of the quality that exists and is improving in the rep world for the economics to begin to affect the gen world. Also, as long as there are mechanical and material differences between gens and reps (especially on the quality side), not many people outside of our community would trade the pride and prestige often associated with gen ownership. Those are the gen buyers, with disposable income AND mindset for the genuine atricle. As long as the gen companies continue to reap profit from here, we are no threat to their market share. As rep quality improves (cosmetically AND mechanically) perhaps this may change. If you could consistently get 1:1 cosmetically, and mechanically, then that would be more of an issue for the gen makers. There are also the politics: you are not going to get the world's number 1 copy cat nation to just stop by politely asking. China is too important to the world economy for the watch industry to really call shots with them, yet. A lot of planets would have to shift and it would have to become important to the REST of the world to change how the Chinese are operating in the new global economy. Stop copying and repping? Stop repping what? Computers, electronics, clothes, watches, toys, medicines, where to start? This industry is so much of a machine for the total Chinese economy I don't see them pulling the plug unless REAL pressure were brought to bear. That being said, it is an improbability, NOT an IMPOSSIBILITY. Just as these Chinese made changes to join the global economy, there are countries and companies trying to bring pressures and laws against their behavior, one day they may gain some sway. So, the economy and marketplace itself may cause course correction we have no control over. This is the famous "get your reps NOW theory" before or if things were to change.

Last point. I do believe the growth of the rep industry has helped the prices of gens to stay as they have been for several years, all time highs, but not wild growth. This has as much to do with currency evaluation as anything else. Everything costs more, it's called inflation. As long as the numbers of reps increase, the gen is devalued. Not in such a manner that your 10K watch is worth $500.00 suddenly, but it ain't worth 12.5K either, the reps have something to do with that, if only to provide a counterpoint to gen pricing. When it affects the gen bottom line enough- they will react. Right now they do everything from bolster the rep prices, to ignoring the phenomonon, let them stay that way until we've collected all we can. I still have songs from my old Napster.

All's well, thanks Fantastic post, it covers pretty much everything

[DemonSlayer]

It's actually not that difficult to find websites where reps are being sold. I remember reading an article either here or on RWG1 where a forum member said they where reading a magazine (TIME) I think it was and that there was an advertisement from replicahause.com. This website is pretty easy to find on google, if you type in "rolex submariner" or "panerai" or something similar you find that this website often shows up, and also if you do a google image search on "audemars piguet offshore" you will see pictures of reps being sold on cqout and ioffer. Therefore, all it takes is for someone with an interest in a particular brand 'googling' it and voila there comes up a rep on sale

Now I do agree that the large percentage of watches being sold by these dealers does not compare to the quality of our so-called recommended dealers, but all it takes is some simple searching on replicas on google and this board as well as others are found pretty easily.

[crystalcranium]

There may be a lot of reps coming out of china, but for the most part those are really bad fakes. I really thing that you over estimate the number of really good reps out there. I live in a large city (Toronto), and I have yet to see someone else with a decent rep. Never seen an asian 7750 on the streets. There are plenty of subs and datejusts, but there simply aren't that many examples of anything else. Certainly not enough to threaten Breitling's or anybody else's market share.

I agree and the genuine market is primarily a luxury market. If this were the 1950's and China was seriously undercutting Hamilton or GP for the $50 decent mechanical watch that most people could afford...and that they were selling by the hundreds of thousands...then they might be a major player like the Japanese were in the 1970's. But who buys a $75 Girard Peregeaux today....no body because GP, Omega, Breitling, IWC, etc do not make watches for the masses. Somewhere along the way in recovering from the quartz death blow, these companies found they could survive just fine selling 200 $250,000 watches rather than selling 200,000 $250 watches. Reps do not seriously impact on the community who is going to buy these watches. Someone who has enough disposable cash to consider spending 3,5,10K for a wristwatch is not going to take a hike to Canal Street. For the most part almost exclusively, reps are purchased by individuals who haven't a snowball's chance in hell of affording a genuine in the luxury market.

[milsub5517]

gens will never loose their value. period. the prices are actually going up !

also, have you seen CD prices (legal copies) go down in the past 15 years??

in the next 10-20 years most of the factories making reps in china will be closed as china becomes more and more legit. this is a natural process, a number of countries are going through this right now.

[southcoast68]

While I do agree with most of the discussion here, I do have a slightly different point of view, see if you agree. It would, at this time, be prudent for the GEN industry to do nothing against the REP industry. Why? Well consider this, the broad availability of reps through internet sales have made it dangerous to buy any high end brand through such channels. This, IMO, have given the following sales tactict to the GEN makers; "In todays market, the only way to ensure that what you are buying is genuine, is to buy it from a certified AD only". This would certainly put uncertainty into anyone considering purchasing any high end model on the 'Bay, and I think the GEN industry would prefer this. After all, Rolex et. al. would prefer to keep selling new watches to thier clients since they would make nothing in selling used pieces, and this uncertainty in internet sales would bring any would-be high end owners back to them. This would mostly apply to ROlex, Breitling, Panerai, Hublot, Patek, etc. Tag and Omega can be had through many discount outlets (Overstock.com, Costco, Shop at Home network, etc.) and even though their products are world-class, thier availability is a little more common through channels other than an AD.

Considering this, do we still think that dealers offering grand websites offering credit card sales and instant shipping are a good idea for the hobby? As the quality and reliability of rep continue to go up, and they become more and more 1:1 super rep quality, the GEN industry will take more notice. For us to say that 0.1% of the rep buying public are most into Canal St. junk and that is what the GEN makers are paying attention to is a mistake from where I stand. We have already seen the story surrounding the Hublot Big Bang. Make no mistake about it, this is a world-wide community and we may very well have folks in the GEN industry reading these very posts. As was said above, a simple Google search can make rep finding easy these days and I am sure the GEN makers are well aware. Whether they can and/or will do anything about it is purely a guess on our part.

Will the value of gens go down? No. As was stated by many here, as long as their are folks in the world who have the money and can justify the price of a gen, they will maintain thier value. However, anyone buying a GEN today would be well advised to keep ALL of the boxes and paperwork with the watch as this will be comming more and more of a necessity in authenticating a watch in the future.

Just my slant on the subject at hand (and I have a pretty slanted mind )

Cheers

[Sweattdogg]

I personally don't think that the value of the gens will be hurt at all. In fact I went from reps to gens. If I like a rep enough maybe I'll actually buy the real thing. I've done that so far with Panerai, Omega, and Breitling. (not at the same time)

[DemonSlayer]

I think that if reps were to get so accurate, I'm talking about 97%+ the same as the gen, then people would consider buying the rep over the gen as it would be a fraction of the cost and be replicated so good that you would have to carefully inspect it to suss out it was a rep.

We all know that it's certainly possible by chinese replica factories to produce replicas of this kind of accuracy even now, but for whatever reason they have (hint: triads) they are choosing not to do so.

[spa]

A Rolex has nothing to be afraid of a Polex .

Having said that i wish to add that Switzerland is in Europe and is real. Shitinerand is nowhere and is fake.

And yes i belong to the mild-class people who set priorities on their budget. One of my priorities IS buying the real thing but it's down on the list so far.

I can do many other things with those 3000-4000$ before spending 'em on a watch.

But i will definitely do it someday because i am a watch lover not a Shitinerand lover.

Just playing around with those nice fakes for now...

[Watchmeister]

I am still in the camp of reps having no impact on gen pricing. The best analogy would be handbags. Even with all the Louis Vuitton and Gucci knock-offs (which have varying quality levels and in general are more readily available) the prices and volumes of those two brands continue to increase. It is easier to buy new gens at a discount today but that is part of the internet phenomenon. It has allowed the gray market to take off for new items and to make a broader array of second hand possibilities readily available. How great is it that you can go to any number of places and see the history of what a PAM 36 or Patek 3700 sold for.

[riskman1]

A Rolex has nothing to be afraid of a Polex .

Having said that i wish to add that Switzerland is in Europe and is real. Shitinerand is nowhere and is fake.

WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS i WON'T BUY A CHINESE WATCH AGAIN. The only one I've bought, from an RWG member, had a problem from the start.

[Victoria]

I am still in the camp of reps having no impact on gen pricing. The best analogy would be handbags. Even with all the Louis Vuitton and Gucci knock-offs (which have varying quality levels and in general are more readily available) the prices and volumes of those two brands continue to increase.

It's interesting that you make this analogy, Kruzer.

I buy handbags as often as I buy rep watches. They are my second passion.

At least once a week, I go in person to boutiques, consignment shops, or department stores and buy only gens. The price of LV bags, which are my favourite, has remained stable these past 5 years, neither much increasing nor decreasing (though LV finally jumped a bit this year).

But there is a curveball thrown into this.

LV have launched DOZENS of new designs, far more than they were known to do, in the past 5 years. I have a permanent call-me order from a boutique when they receive their latest LV model, so I can get first crack from all their clients. I used to get called once a fortnight. Now literally, it's 2 times per week.

Further, the sheer amount of makes of handbags has shot through the ROOF since 2000. Before it was LV, Herm

[DemonSlayer]

Yes Victoria, I do agree with your views on the replica handbag trade. However, replica handbags can be replicated at REMARKABLE accuracy, I have seen this with my own eyes. In fact, I know someone who sells these, and one of these were taken to a boutique, (I think it may have been Fendi) and they thought it was a gen

Handbags, like watches, have different levels of quality. I have seen the very bad that are often found at flea markets, to the very good which are harder to obtain, to the extremely good (very hard to obtain).

If these extremely accurate handbags where produced and sold in larger numbers, the handbag makers would have to take careful notice and really crack down on these sales.

Another fashion commodity that I know have been extremely accurately replicated are Nike kicks. They are produced so accurate down to the barcode on the box that these could easily be sold in stores such as Footlocker and no one could tell the difference, in fact I know that this particular batch passed as authentic when Nike analyzed them.

I feel this can be done with watches, for instance if factories now only produced, say Submariners at the level of quality of a MBW or even better, these could possibly pass as a gen. Then Rolex would have to take immediate action just like Hublot did with the Big Bang replicas.

[P4GTR]

Genuine watch sales will follow the economy much like fine art, or exotic car sales do. As long as there is desire for a specific genuine brand, I don't think rep sales will interfere enough to matter much at all. Do prints, or kit cars impact the art or exotic car markets? Anyone buying a monet or Murcielago is going to have definitive proof they are the genuine article.

Lest we take into account the precious stones and metals the gen's are made out of which will always hold their value, for much of the same reason the watch "brand" itself will- desire, with of course a splash of human greed.

[Watchmeister]

I have to agree that Replica handbags can be unbelievably good. But you pay huge bucks for the better ones. If you ever travel to Japan you will see $1 -$1.5K for knock-offs of $10-15,000 bags and I assure you that you can walk into any of the brand's boutiques with them. In fact, if you really develop a good relationship with a top of the line dealer you can have that same bag made in alligator from a hide which you personally select for another $2-3k and have a beautiful knock-off of a $25-$50k bag. And yes the majority of rep bags are crap but if you look carefully you can find some incredible reps. Sound familiar. The watch path looks fairly similar but with the added complexity of the mechanical elements.

[DemonSlayer]

I have to agree that Replica handbags can be unbelievably good. But you pay huge bucks for the better ones. If you ever travel to Japan you will see $1 -$1.5K for knock-offs of $10-15,000 bags and I assure you that you can walk into any of the brand's boutiques with them. In fact, if you really develop a good relationship with a top of the line dealer you can have that same bag made in alligator from a hide which you personally select for another $2-3k and have a beautiful knock-off of a $25-$50k bag. And yes the majority of rep bags are crap but if you look carefully you can find some incredible reps. Sound familiar. The watch path looks fairly similar but with the added complexity of the mechanical elements.

kruzer00, glad to know someone else knows this fact Most of those high end bags are actually made in China and sell for a whole lot less than 1 to 1.5 grand. Yes you can indeed walk into the brands boutique with them and they WILL NOT know the difference, pretty amazing if you ask me. Bags are way easier to replicate than watches, as you pointed out, watches carry mechanical elements which may not be as easy to replicate.

However I believe that what can be done with bags/footwear and clothes (I know someone who ordered over 500 Ralph Lauren Polos made at 1:1 copy) can also be done with watches on the most part.

Perhaps they can't be replicated 100% yet but if factories wanted to they can get damn close. In fact if you order in a large enough quantity, a factory can even make them for you, but be prepared to spend big money, the minimum order quantity won't be low. For whatever reason, the replica factories are INTENTIONALLY producing reps which are not as accurate as many on this board would like them.

[Victoria]

Bags are way easier to replicate than watches, as you pointed out, watches carry mechanical elements which may not be as easy to replicate.

As I said too.

However, you know how CERTAIN guys here can tell a rep Panerai or Rolex from across the room, or from the merest glance?

Certain women are like that about handbags.

No matter how good the copy, I can tell a rep from a gen LIKE THAT. My mother, even more. It's about the stitching, the detailing, the interior leather or backing, the size of the lock, the engraving on the logo, etc. etc. etc. Good rep handbags can indeed run you into the high 100s, even 1000s, but they all will have a tell-tale sign.

Unfortunately, my talents are limited to seeing a handbag in person. Perhaps other guys here have that same ability with watches, but only in person because you get a better sense of a watch that way.

Remember Tin Cup with Kevin Costner? He said you get a special feeling when you hit a ball cleanly -- a tuning fork vibration goes off inside you. Same feeling with me and gen/rep handbags (and paste jewelry, especially diamonds).

[magagne]

Fact is I heard an Omega AD saying that the price of the Planet Ocean will increase in Jan from $4500 to $5000 CAD. That just give me another reason to buy a PO rep.

PO is so expensive, I can understand the fact that they use the new a co-axial mvt, but even that, come on Omega, relax, this is not a mvt that was redesign from scratch, it's just a mvt that was improve on what already exist.

Omega will also drop the Quartz mvt and they will just focus on automatic model mvt (another reason to sell higher, so no more "bargain" watch, expect for lady's model, that will continue to use quartz mvt for some model), they want to focus on a more "serious" image. Watch from Omega will be more an more expensive, I just hope they will NOT do the same like Rolex, i.e control production just to keep higher demand, and justify a higher price, etc.

So to answer the question, I don't think gen will loose value.

[Dani]

Some gens will never be replicated so to answer the initial post no i dont think gen will lose value because of reps..

[robertk]

So the truth is, Rep fans, the gens are here to stay?

[Shundi]

Interesting subject and one that will have the most lasting effect on the replica industry.

Personally, I feel that, as others have said, consumerism has played a huge role in the amount of luxury goods that are replicated. I do not, however, think that this will negatively affect the value of gens sold. Corgi used the example of Louis Vuitton purses. While it is true that many are replicas, most people KNOW that many of these purses are replicas. In fact, there are parties where people get together, socialize, and exchange/sell replica Vuitton purses! As such, I feel that pushes gen luxury items to new heights and, in my opinion, even higher values. In the 70's and 80's, Rolex, Omega, etc. were recognizable however nowhere near as recognizable and scrutinized as they are today. The latest James Bond movie, for example, was one of (if not the) highest grossing Bond movies ever. The Planet Ocean is given loads of screen time and while this is not the only reason the Planet Ocean is sought after, the movie made people outside of the watch world aware that "that's the Bond watch!".

With the media saturation we have become accustomed to, there are hundreds of watch/luxury item advertisements and product placements that have become sought after (and, of course, replicated). As such, I feel that as media saturation and bombardment will only cause Gens to be even more coveted than replicas and even elevated the status of Gens.