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Oil up almost $11 per barrel


Sir-Lancelot

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the truly sad part is, we have TONS of proven finds and yet we can't drill for it, we can't build a new refinery, we can't build clean nuclear reactors... The greenies have us totally hamstrung, so we're at the mercy of OPEC. That is what stinks.

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Well...that and the speculation market...I was reading an interesting article in Fortune that hypothesized that the oil market would go the same way as the housing and silver markets in the 80's and 90's... a big boom ( sort of like the EPS numbers for some tech companies in 90's...the stock was trading at $500/share but they only had like...$150 EPS). The theory was that the "rational market" would ultimately find new and innovative ways to get said oil. The author compared it to the crisis in the 80's where oil skyrocketed for a bit and then tanked for around 20 years as oil flooded the market in response to the demand/shortage...

We shall see...

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Well...that and the speculation market...I was reading an interesting article in Fortune that hypothesized that the oil market would go the same way as the housing and silver markets in the 80's and 90's... a big boom ( sort of like the EPS numbers for some tech companies in 90's...the stock was trading at $500/share but they only had like...$150 EPS). The theory was that the "rational market" would ultimately find new and innovative ways to get said oil. The author compared it to the crisis in the 80's where oil skyrocketed for a bit and then tanked for around 20 years as oil flooded the market in response to the demand/shortage...

We shall see...

I think that you are on the right track. The parabolic move of oil upward from $10 per barrell smacks of a bubble. "The greenies" are a straw man. They are fleas compared to the goliaths of big oil and other multinationals with a vested interest in oil being at alltime highs. When the bubble bursts (soon), analysts will compare this era to other parabolic bubbles of the past that were rationalized by (at least partly) specious theories like "peak oil" and exponential, unprecedented demand increases (India/China). The party is almost over with Bush and Cheney on their way out.

Remember rolling blackouts, the spot price of electricity in Kah-lee-for-nee-yuh, and Gray Davis? Remember all of the thories about what was supposedly responsible? Remember how Enron then got caught? Well; not everyone who does what Enron did gets caught. In fact, most don't, imo, judging from my experience as a consultant to public companies in the energy/resource sectors.

The real question is; what's the next bubble now that real estate and oil are just about over? Will it be nuclear (uranium)? Will it be alternative energy (esp solar)? How about water? How about all of the above and more...

Wow! I am so happy to be back at RWG! I forgot how much I loved this place and all of the great personalities in the community. It's been almost two years since I've set digital foot in here (I frequented RWG1). The best gathering of people I've ever experienced online, without a doubt.

Cheers all,

FFF

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the truly sad part is, we have TONS of proven finds and yet we can't drill for it, we can't build a new refinery, we can't build clean nuclear reactors... The greenies have us totally hamstrung, so we're at the mercy of OPEC. That is what stinks.

So true. I have a feeling that at some point this is going to change. In fact I think that people are going to demand that it changes. I'm all for taking care of the enviroment but not at the expense of the economy.

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there are other political forces at work that I can't quite ferret out, for example we are PRIME for limitless geothermal here, the technology is developed and proven, so why isn't it up and running NOW?

Don't say it's an energy cartel blockade b/c the big oil companies are piling tons of money into alternative energy sources (at least here in Alaska)

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There is so much that is catching up with us just now. Bush may be a 1st class dink, but he is not 100% at fault for this. This was done a decade ago and it is just now catching up to us.

IMO,

Free trade has more to do with the weak dollar than anything. We can buy all this cheap ass stuff that is made by child labor in 3rd world countries, but now it is our Achilles heal as the US unemployment rises, small business file for bankruptcy, and the dollar plummets into a worthless pile of chit. BUT HEY, look at all this crap we can buy.

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That is a bargain. I'm paying $2.50 per litre here in the UK. I might as well slit my wrists and fill my car up with blood.

Yea it's high there but imagine you buy a SUV or something and in 5 years you're paying $7.50 per litre. That's why we're complaining here in the US. I bought my SUV in 2004 when gas was about $1.75 per gallong and now it's $4.00 a gallon. I can afford it, but I can understand those having a hard time paying for it now.

5 year cost

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Yea it's high there but imagine you buy a SUV or something and in 5 years you're paying $7.50 per litre. That's why we're complaining here in the US. I bought my SUV in 2004 when gas was about $1.75 per gallong and now it's $4.00 a gallon. I can afford it, but I can understand those having a hard time paying for it now.

Hell, I have four children so I have no choice to afford it. Well, that's not true, we could take two cars and pay double.

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Wow! I am so happy to be back at RWG! I forgot how much I loved this place and all of the great personalities in the community. It's been almost two years since I've set digital foot in here (I frequented RWG1). The best gathering of people I've ever experienced online, without a doubt.

Cheers all,

FFF

Did your old userid disappear? want to change this one to just fahfahfooey?

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@ FFF:

Welcome back! I've never been over to the "wild wild west" of RWG1 but I hear (from the old timers ;) ) that it was a real blast!

You analysis shows experience in dealing with these kind of corporations... stocks like FSLR and ENR have had huge volume swings in the past few days, so energy is def. something that may be the next bubble... I'd also expect to see some sort of insanity come out of this whole healthcare mess we're in at the moment.

I think stocks in China (BIDU and CHL, for instance) have been playing fast and loose for a while now and I'd expect to see people attempting to play off the extreme volatility of those emerging markets (more likely through puts/shorting then through long holds). Obviously fewer people will be playing the international stock market then, say, dealing with mortgages/sub-prime issues or oil, but the potential amount of money that could change hands is mind-boggling.

Also, the International Energy Association just released figures saying that in order to "clean up the environment," approx. $45 trillion (yes, trillion...the entire US government's budget for Fiscal Year 2008 was a "scant" $3.10 trillion (not including the freaking war, that's an appropriation) and all them money we spend abroad in foreign aid (and no, no flames, I'm not saying the war is foreign aid) ) meaning that the "greenies" are going to fall all over themselves to hand money over to the "greenest" companies (regardless of their corporate ethics....hey, they recycle!) so that may be another bubble.

Might have to hedge gold...there's talk of more war in Iran and the lower the dollar or Euro or whatever go, the higher gold, silver, et al will rise...good thing for the gen two tones ;)

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<ignorance on>

Okay, now I know zip about world economy and international everything... but what would happen if the USA....

closed ALL the foreign bases and brought all our troops home,

put up borders and guards that MEAN something,

stopped ALL foreign aid and spent the money on our own needs instead of the world's,

spent our money at home and fixed our own health care,

poured money into our own infrastructure instead of rebuilding the world, and

increased our internal security forces so the criminal elements could finally be dealt with?

Is that selfish and protectionist/isolationist? Or is it what one does when one is threatened with destruction?

Would the world collapse into anarchy? What if millions die from something as simple as malaria?

I guess my bottom line is, why are the USA taxpayers feeding, healing and policing the world, and being called on the carpet when something goes wrong?

Is it our duty? Big brother/younger brother? Or are we sticking our nose in where it doesn't belong anyway?

Mind you I'm ignorant of all these things. But if my family was suffering I'd sure rethink spending so much to help the local people in need until my own home was in order.

That's all.

</ignorance off>

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That is a bargain. I'm paying $2.50 per litre here in the UK. I might as well slit my wrists and fill my car up with blood.

I was just in Germany and there too about $9 a gallon, but its not only the big cars here in the US, we also have to drive so much more here. Everything is build around cars. In Europe you can very well get around most cities without a car and a lot of places you can just walk, plus PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION is at least available in a clean and efficient form!!

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What if millions die from something as simple as malaria?

I, too, am afflicted by ignorance. But, millions DO die each year from malaria - about 1 million per year, mostly children, due in large part (perhaps entirely) to the bad publicity garnered from the book "Silent Spring". In the early 1960s, malaria was nearly wiped out; once the use of DDT was discontinued, it came back, and DDT-substitutes have had not had the same success.

The head of the World Health Organization's antimalaria campaign is now asking environmentalists to reverse course on DDT use: "We are asking these environmental groups to join the fight to save the lives of babies in Africa," Kochi said. "This is our call to them."

I saw what happened to California; the legislators and economists apparently didn't take into account how people would act with millions (billions - 8 of them to be precise) of dollars on the table for the taking. It's happening in ERCOT - the Texas electric grid - right now (wait, I thought the Texas companies were the ones responsible for screwing California, now they're shittin' on their own doorstep?).

$150 oil means $5 (or higher?) gasoline. $12.5+ natural gas prices = $0.10 + energy per kWh. This is our new reality. Maybe we'll back off our consumption, but unless we make meaningful changes in the way we develop and use energy (ie, build nuclear generating plants, wind doesn't blow during the hot, still, peak hours) get ready not only for crazy gasoline prices, but way higher utility bills.

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p4gtr -- come on now, let's keep this sick crap off the boards, do we really need this garbage on the forum? :thumbdown:

Seriously?

I'll keep the top of my collar buttoned to make sure not to offend you with anymore of this crazy sick garbage. I just have to wonder- have you not been to the movies, on the internet, or watched the news lately? "good evening welcome to the 5 o'clock news, here's who died." I mean c'mon?

I had to disable avitars on this board at work, do those offend you as well? The upside down naked arses sprawled across beds, negligees, lingerie, string bikini's, etc?

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