2005SUBMARINER Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 can this be true people is the U.S.A heading for financial disaster ? the fall of the us dollar ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omega_Man Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 can this be true people is the U.S.A heading for financial disaster ? the fall of the us dollar ! http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/amero.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrgod Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 Amero.. Fun video. Sadly, the reality is always more boring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcdj Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner#cite_note-0 maybe do a little research before spreading this FUD. the guy is a white nationalist/supremacist. anything he says means zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2005SUBMARINER Posted December 21, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 [didnt know that man , i just viewed it on the tube & it sounds dam scary .. just wanted to see what the rwg members think obout this vid .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omega_Man Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 Youtube is not usually a good resource for finding the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 You all know what I think about the price of printing money. The black swans are congregating. But this guy is a nut of course. The collapse of the dollar is coming if we stay on this course, as will the world as we know it in turn but it isn't a plan to loot and no currency will ever be worthless. There is always a bid and an ask in all things. The whole world is benchmarked to its value so "an end" is no where near as simple as this guy paints. The hybrid currency is funny. No way it will fly. Makes no sense for anyone to do it or have faith in it. Diversification to a variety of currencies is a good idea though. Swiss accounts converted to CHF is a good place to start. It certainly can't hurt to have some money in a variety of coutries and in a variety of currencies. Diversification in troubled times is never a bad idea. Oh Chief? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drhydro Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 The coin came from here: designs computed homepage designs computed amero coin Creating a North American Union would be like herdin' cats or pushin' ropes. Ain't gonna happen, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceberg1459 Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 ufos more interesting IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HauteHippie Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 While the US Dollar is indeed headed for collapse, what happens then is anyone's guess. Civil unrest would not be far fetched at all, however. Amero? It has been talked about for years. We'll see. A currency can never become worthless, though? Tell that to the Zimbabweans. Now maybe it's not technically worthless, but when a loaf of bread costs over 1,600,000,000,000 (1.6T) Zimbabwe dollars, well then it's worthless to most everyone living in Zimbabwe now aint it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lanikai Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 Is NAFTA a prelude to . . . . . . North American Union ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slay Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 (edited) Honestly I think the last thing that is going to happen to the USA is a merger with ANY country. The United States are way too proud of their history & their constitution and all that. I think most people would rather die fighting than giving up and merging with mexico.... unless of course america is 80% hispanic in 20years, than that scenario is a whole other story. If it wasn't for Obama, I would say we are heading for WW3 (just because WAR has proven to solve economic problems) Edited December 22, 2008 by slay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertk Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 ........And it's not even April fool's yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 I'm talking about relative value - of course. The priciple currency market is of course a spot market which is simply an unregulated pile of participant banks. Everthing has intrinsic value since we express these values in pairs. So even if a currency gets to zero it can go the other way and theoretically be a negative number. This is unique in that the spot market doesn't exist with anything else. If every company in the 500 had worthless stock the index is zero and it isn't tied to anything else. It is very finite. Currency valuation though is always relative to something else. So while it might be zero against the Euro, it might be much more against the Franc. Every currency will always be worth something realtive to something else - even if it is worthless in terms of what it can buy. My point is there is always a trade there and someone will make money on its collapse. Even in the most extreme conditions history tells us someone always takes the other side of the trade. Period. Everytime your Dollars (or whatever your currency is) loses value, someone else makes money if they hold the other one and it is rising relative to it. It flows out of your pocket and into theirs - it does even if you are not participating by trading. Ouch. Currency is funny that way. So how to protect yourself? Hedging. Be long everything - including Dollars to make sure you don't get hurt by any one collapse. These risks always exist so I find it interesting that everyone seems to notice now only because the risks are extreme. Anyway the only way around this is if the currency ceases to exist and is pulled from circulation, but every nation needs a way to trade and buy and sell and an instrument. You can't erase the past by starting over so it may as well be the dollar as anything else. And it will be. We just might not like its valuation relative to others much in the near future. There is a collapse coming IMO but all this crazy stuff is just that. There is still going to be a country called the USA and the land mass isn't going anywhere. As long as it is here we, like all the other 3rd world countries (lol) will have a currency as a way to conduct "life" with each other and the world. It is tied to all we do. What the currency is or what it is called becomes irrelevant... While the US Dollar is indeed headed for collapse, what happens then is anyone's guess. Civil unrest would not be far fetched at all, however. Amero? It has been talked about for years. We'll see. A currency can never become worthless, though? Tell that to the Zimbabweans. Now maybe it's not technically worthless, but when a loaf of bread costs over 1,600,000,000,000 (1.6T) Zimbabwe dollars, well then it's worthless to most everyone living in Zimbabwe now aint it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fat.tail.event Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 Just like JFK, Challenger explosion, 9/11...we will all one day be sharing tales around 2020 of where we were/what we were doing when the first "United States Dollar Devaluation" occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marrickvilleboy Posted December 22, 2008 Report Share Posted December 22, 2008 hahaha... remember in college when they asked for reliable sources when writing papers? same thing applies here. This Hal Turner is a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronoluvvv Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 well i guess i can discount what the Mayan calendar says about 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 23, 2008 Report Share Posted December 23, 2008 Has anyone in your group been looking at the potential fat tail implications for currency at all? We aren't really currency guys - save for very linear hedging algos but I would love to find the great trade in all of this. It certainly is far from cut and dried LT short biasing everyone is putting on. To be truthful I would like to find a way to scalp it on the London/New York fence for a series of days, flattening each block as I go if I could figure out what method I was going to use to trade it. I'm pretty comfortable with using short term volatility measures for intraday entry and exit signals but currency is kind of a paradox. Currency is very tough to scalp IMO. Almost too liquid to make sense of very short term. But I just know that is going to change soon but how to jump on the momentum without considerable risk expansion? I have to decide how I'm going to put it together. So let's hear from the absolute return guy. How would you trade the Dollar slide? Just like JFK, Challenger explosion, 9/11...we will all one day be sharing tales around 2020 of where we were/what we were doing when the first "United States Dollar Devaluation" occured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightstroker Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Is NAFTA a prelude to . . . North American Union ?? That is the basis of this whole conspiracy theory. As of right now, the Amero is a conspiracy theory that is being heavily fueled by a proposition made by NASCO to build a Superhighway (Four football fields wide) from Mexico to Canada. The conspiracy suggests that NAFTA, the Amero, and the Superhighway are all part of a long-term secret government plan to tie the US, Canada, and Mexico together with one currency. Many people believe that this was the actual reason for NAFTA. Here is the NASCO website Obviously, a lot of rumors are spreading around regarding this Superhighway. Some people seem to think that it is already being built. Me personally, I think its a bunch of [censored]. Its just someones elaborate idea. The Superhighway has not been approved by our government. Conspiracy theorists LOVE this kind of crap. It just adds an extra little piece to the puzzle their trying to put together in their scrambled minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HauteHippie Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 How would you trade the Dollar slide? I wouldn't. Rather than speculate, I'd simply get out of the dollar for good. Personally, when I look at what's out there with an eye on the macro situation, I really see once in a lifetime opportunities. But I don't have a crystal ball to predict the perfect moment in time nor any real interest to trade the dollar directly... But I do have the patience to wait it out in what I perceive to be a very good position and the stamina to get through the short term irrationality and volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Well sure & we don't trade much currency as we mostly focus on S&P futures, but that is sort of my point. By definition, if you are out of the Dollar you are long something else given that the currencies and values, hence trades, are all expressed in pairs. So I guess what you mean then is you won't be looking for any way to hedge your Dollar position at all and just take what comes? What I'm after is finding a model to trade others against the dollar intraday. As I said now we hedge some equities trades with EUR/USD and USD/JPY via the CME futures contracts, but we are soliciting opinions as to what others are doing with core trading as opposed to hedgin models with these and also the buck vs. CHF and GPB. These four will be the limits of our Dollar trades. We have some OK mechanical momentum models now, but I always like some kind of novel "sentiment" component to guide the ship. That "sentiment" is what is pretty clear in equities (short) but very vague in currencies at the moment - hence my question. But of course we don't believein crystal balls either. More like 4 parts machine, 1 part fairy dust. LOL... I wouldn't. Rather than speculate, I'd simply get out of the dollar for good. Personally, when I look at what's out there with an eye on the macro situation, I really see once in a lifetime opportunities. But I don't have a crystal ball to predict the perfect moment in time nor any real interest to trade the dollar directly... But I do have the patience to wait it out in what I perceive to be a very good position and the stamina to get through the short term irrationality and volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slay Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 The Dollar cannot fall under a certain point UNLESS the USA has a massive inflation or their economy collapses. Why? At a cerain point (as the dollar loses value), goods in the US will become so cheap that people from all over the world will buy there. For Example, in the UK, a PS3 can be had for under 300Euro. You can order it on amazon.co.uk, have it shipped to Germany for 10Euro or so. In Germany you pay 400 for the same thing. Lots of people are buying things from the UK now. If the pound would lose further value, lets say you could buy the PS3 for 150Euro. That is not going to work for a long time, because all of a sudden noone will be willing to buy the PS3 in Germany (or any other Euro country), because they can get the same damn thing for 250Euro less in England and don't even have to pay taxes/tariffs. There cannot be massive currency devaluation without massive inflation, at least not in an industry nation. And if we see massive inflation in the US, the Economy will go down for sure. And then we all will be affected by this. The quintessence of what I wrote is, that there is a certain point until which the dollar can lose value, but no further, otherwise the world economy will be even more fcuked than it already is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Sorry, I just saw this line late. So your position is that long term you a confident in the recovery of USD or am I reading it wrong? And if so, define LT if you would. Also, I wonder from the macro side what you think about the price of the printing press to save equities essentially and how with the debt of that looming how the buck might find a path to strength again. Tough questions to be sure... But I do have the patience to wait it out in what I perceive to be a very good position and the stamina to get through the short term irrationality and volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieG Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 Exactly, hence all I have been saying. Currency is always a relative concern. Relative to another currency in order to express its true value. And this is what makes the trade so difficult long term. The fat tails at the outer conditions are unknown. We simply haven't seen them before. The word massive you use in your post is the whole key and what makes it so tough. The sensitivity is higher at the edges of the curve. Devaluation/inflation or hypervaluation/deflation will both be on the table until the bitter end depending on the severity of the corrective measures... The Dollar cannot fall under a certain point UNLESS the USA has a massive inflation or their economy collapses. Why? At a cerain point (as the dollar loses value), goods in the US will become so cheap that people from all over the world will buy there. For Example, in the UK, a PS3 can be had for under 300Euro. You can order it on amazon.co.uk, have it shipped to Germany for 10Euro or so. In Germany you pay 400 for the same thing. Lots of people are buying things from the UK now. If the pound would lose further value, lets say you could buy the PS3 for 150Euro. That is not going to work for a long time, because all of a sudden noone will be willing to buy the PS3 in Germany (or any other Euro country), because they can get the same damn thing for 250Euro less in England and don't even have to pay taxes/tariffs. There cannot be massive currency devaluation without massive inflation, at least not in an industry nation. And if we see massive inflation in the US, the Economy will go down for sure. And then we all will be affected by this. The quintessence of what I wrote is, that there is a certain point until which the dollar can lose value, but no further, otherwise the world economy will be even more fcuked than it already is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slay Posted December 24, 2008 Report Share Posted December 24, 2008 It's a good thing that we have so many multinationals today that are dependend on the world market and cannot afford to have one market killed. That is saving us from a dollar collapse right now. Because as I said, the dollar cannot lose all of its value unless prices rise in America, and that would kill the market. Noone has interest in that. (besides Iran maybe). Many people would lose money, more money than they would lose if the Dollar does not get devalued. Just think about it, if you borrowed someone sth. would you be interested in devaluating the money he borrowed from you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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