Swine Flu

[KB]

Swine Flu is now becoming a very hot topic here in Aus after going from zero cases about a week ago to over 500 at the moment, 400 of these in my state alone, so I have been giving it a lot of thought.

First up I see the whole affair as a bit of a beat up, this mornings news states that WHO signals that a pandemic is imminent, yeah fine but surly by these same measures the common Winter flu goes pandemic every year?

But H1N1 kills people you say?

Well so far we had an initial tally of some 200 deaths in Mexico revised down to below 100 and now the worldwide tally stands at 117, most (for whatever reason) have occurred in Mexico, the common Winter flu claims 3000 lives a year!

I remember reading an article when SARS was sweeping Asia where WHO believes there is a big bang virus due (don't know how they work this out) and SARS wasn't it, the article goes on to say that WHO and world Government groups were concerned that they were not in fact ready to battle a worldwide pandemic.

Call this a conspiracy theory if you like but is it possible that authorities have seen the outbreak of H1N1 as the perfect time to run a global drill?

It just seems to me that the scare tactics are far outweighing the actual the realities of this virus and it's not the first time either, remember the bird flu scare?

Still I am the father of a 7yo so obviously I want to assure her wellbeing as much as possible, so my question......

As we have a large international community here I was wondering if anyone has actually suffered this swine flu and if so in your opinion how bad (say in comparison to common flu) would you rate the virus?

Ken

[chronoluvvv]

been there, done that up in the PNW ........ last month

the wifey works in healthcare so they went ballistic for the first few days but no one cared too much about it

In fact to be brutally honest, it reeks of snake oil and possibly was an attempt to boost pharmaceutical sales

[Katerchen]

hola ken!

i have no definite clue and i bet my pants

nobody reading/listening "mass media" has!

i was worried too because im beeing together

with about 400 different people during a year...

that makes me a high potential person for infectious

such as H1N1.

at the moment it looks like we are somehow "safe"

in germany, but if an outbreak comes to europe... who is?

the more i read and hear it seems to me that the whole

swine-flu thing is somehow "set up" and pushed by authorities/media...

considering the (few) deaths and lethal cases

the worst thing that can happen is that they will use

this thing for forced vaccination in US (look at some new

laws brought up recently) and they could even enpower

martial law over the people.

I guess thats waht some people want...

So do the simple "math of doom" of what can

happen so quick - you need:

1. Another sudden impact on the financial market -

best time is when nobody expects it, cause some people

think weve already reached the bottom line of the world-financial-crisis yet

(maybe collapse of the dollar??)

2. A second "wave" of the H1N1 Virus - which is evoked

as a "must" to happen by mass-media for end of 2009 - more lethal than

the first rush (that will give $$$ to the big pharma and neocons)

3. Another "terror" attack on the us citizens -

for ex. see how homeland security labels most of freedom loving

US citizens as terrorists

CONCLUSION?

See now how "far" away you are in US and other countries

that follow from riots in the streets etc.?

If just 2 of the above mentioned points are going to happen

you WILL receive MARTIAL LAW in the US.

Funny thing is to remember when was the last

time in history - europe/germany - when somebody

was talking about "homeland" - you see the roots now

of homeland-security and what most things are about?

Just my 2 cents Ken... but beware the

POWER OF DORKNESS

B/R

George

[fat.tail.event]

It seems to claim those with multiple, coexisting conditions.

Kind of like of like typical flu strains.

What number of deaths are attributed each year, globally, due to flu? Do a little search for a good laugh vs. 'swine' flu.

Scary name for a virus though. Still havent a seen a bloody pigs head on a stick on the nightly news, but we'll get there.

[harryarme]

Cases showed up here in Texas soon after they started in Mexico. When a few school-age kids got it several major school districts shut down for a week. There were a few deaths, but they were mostly people with other problems as well. The scare seems to have died down and there hasn't been much about it in the news lately.

The medical community seems to have over-reacted but I don't know if they deserve a lot of blame. If you read newspapers from 1918 you will be blown away by how severe that epidemic was. They were crammed full of obits of healthy people who got the flu and died. There was at least one death in almost every family, that's how bad it was.

I think a lot of concern came from the fact that in Mexico a disproportionate number of the deaths were young people, and that scared the crap out of the health authorities. There is a theory now that H1N1 is similar to cases of the flu from the Fifties and before, when swine-type viruses were prevalent. Apparently there was a change around 1957 and bird-type viruses have been predominant since then. The theory says that people who had the flu or were exposed to it before the late Fifties may have some immunity to H1N1. There are some advantages to being old.

It has also been pointed out that it took a while to realize that a lot of people may have gotten this new virus and recovered with no problems, and the percentage of deaths is probably not much different from the usual winter flus. The authorities in Oz may not have figured that out yet.

A colleague from work recently took a business trip to Japan and when he went to meet with the customer's people at their site he found that everyone was wearing a full mask. They handed him one and required him to wear it. That same company also requires people who travel on business to work at home for 3 days when they return before they can come back to the office. Now THAT'S an over-reaction.

So, yeah, there has probably been an over-reaction, and the drug companies and medical people see profit in it, but there's a legitimate fear that the virus could mutate into something really bad. This is probably worse in Oz because the winter flu season is starting and if the virus mixes with one of the other types the mutations could be very nasty.

[docblackrock]

In fact to be brutally honest, it reeks of snake oil and possibly was an attempt to boost pharmaceutical sales

Yes, it's all a dastardly conspiracy between the WHO, the CDC and Roche, not to mention the complicit involvement of various epidemiological centres and academic institutions.

Put your tin foil hat back on and go back to studying the double shadows in those Neil Armstrong photos again.

[KB]

So now there's a doctor in the house, what is your opinion on the severity of this virus?

Ken

[nikki6]

I think the first case in the EU, certainly the first case in the UK, happened where my sister stays. A small town called Falkirk, in central Scotland. It was a couple who had holidayed in Mexico and came back with the virus, ironically enough, the girl work in Boots the Chemist, our largest Pharmacutical chain in the UK. (made me chuckle anyway!)

They are both fine now, a flu shot and some anti biotics and they were fine. As has been mentioned before, it seems to hurt if you have existing conditions which the flu sits on top of making them worse. Also, it seems all the people that have died have lived in pretty poor conditions and wouldn't have the money or insurance for proper medical treatment. Very sad in this day and age that people cannot get proper medical treatment unless they suddenly appear to have some new super strain of - insert bird/pig/girraffe/ flu of your choice here- .

I know we got packs sent out to us in the mail giving suggestions on what to do if you felt the symptoms coming on. My pop (Thunderchild) caught a real bad cold/flu thing just after it all kicked off, so he was sent to bed and checked for a curly tail at 4 hourly intervals, or when he shouted down the stairs for something. My mam still says 'manflu' but you never know!

I personaly think that in all but the very poorest of areas that it really isn't a huge problem, we have anti virals stockpiled, masks, gloves etc. I don't think I would worry overly much about it Ken, but I'm not a doctor, but do spend an inordinate amount of time around them and in hospital, so you hear talk ask questions, none of them are bothered at all about it.

Sixx

[TeeJay]

Cases showed up here in Texas soon after they started in Mexico. When a few school-age kids got it several major school districts shut down for a week. There were a few deaths, but they were mostly people with other problems as well. The scare seems to have died down and there hasn't been much about it in the news lately.

The medical community seems to have over-reacted but I don't know if they deserve a lot of blame. If you read newspapers from 1918 you will be blown away by how severe that epidemic was. They were crammed full of obits of healthy people who got the flu and died. There was at least one death in almost every family, that's how bad it was.

I think a lot of concern came from the fact that in Mexico a disproportionate number of the deaths were young people, and that scared the crap out of the health authorities. There is a theory now that H1N1 is similar to cases of the flu from the Fifties and before, when swine-type viruses were prevalent. Apparently there was a change around 1957 and bird-type viruses have been predominant since then. The theory says that people who had the flu or were exposed to it before the late Fifties may have some immunity to H1N1. There are some advantages to being old.

It has also been pointed out that it took a while to realize that a lot of people may have gotten this new virus and recovered with no problems, and the percentage of deaths is probably not much different from the usual winter flus. The authorities in Oz may not have figured that out yet.

A colleague from work recently took a business trip to Japan and when he went to meet with the customer's people at their site he found that everyone was wearing a full mask. They handed him one and required him to wear it. That same company also requires people who travel on business to work at home for 3 days when they return before they can come back to the office. Now THAT'S an over-reaction.

So, yeah, there has probably been an over-reaction, and the drug companies and medical people see profit in it, but there's a legitimate fear that the virus could mutate into something really bad. This is probably worse in Oz because the winter flu season is starting and if the virus mixes with one of the other types the mutations could be very nasty.

Ask your colleague what it was like walking the streets in Japan... There was easily 40% (maybe more) of the pedestrians wearing face masks when I was in Tokyo a couple of weeks ago, and probably 80% of people in 'customer facing' jobs wearing them...

It wasn't until we were booking at Narita airport to fly back, that we got chatting to another Brit waiting in line, and he explained that the Japanese have pretty weak immune systems, hence all the masks.

[TeeJay]

I think the first case in the EU, certainly the first case in the UK, happened where my sister stays. A small town called Falkirk, in central Scotland. It was a couple who had holidayed in Mexico and came back with the virus, ironically enough, the girl work in Boots the Chemist, our largest Pharmacutical chain in the UK. (made me chuckle anyway!)

They are both fine now, a flu shot and some anti biotics and they were fine. As has been mentioned before, it seems to hurt if you have existing conditions which the flu sits on top of making them worse. Also, it seems all the people that have died have lived in pretty poor conditions and wouldn't have the money or insurance for proper medical treatment. Very sad in this day and age that people cannot get proper medical treatment unless they suddenly appear to have some new super strain of - insert bird/pig/girraffe/ flu of your choice here- .

I know we got packs sent out to us in the mail giving suggestions on what to do if you felt the symptoms coming on. My pop (Thunderchild) caught a real bad cold/flu thing just after it all kicked off, so he was sent to bed and checked for a curly tail at 4 hourly intervals, or when he shouted down the stairs for something. My mam still says 'manflu' but you never know!

I personaly think that in all but the very poorest of areas that it really isn't a huge problem, we have anti virals stockpiled, masks, gloves etc. I don't think I would worry overly much about it Ken, but I'm not a doctor, but do spend an inordinate amount of time around them and in hospital, so you hear talk ask questions, none of them are bothered at all about it.

Sixx

I think you've hit the nail on the head there, bro, it seems that the fatalities were only occurring in less affluent areas with less medical care.

[lanikai]

Well, I for one am so relieved.. I have been diagnosed with pneumonia this week slightly above 'walking " and below "hospital" time..

and at first I thought it was something like the swine..

i contract a virus in January.. that lasted I thought a week.. in my biz.. taking off from working is not an option. so, on I went with my daily duties.. since then off and on I felt that I was not 100% ... it felt somewhat like what malaria was described as..

anyway.. during the last several months we have had some of the worst Vog that the islands have experienced in a long .. long time.. (from the volcanoe on the Big Island ~ Hawaii)

this along with the respritory virus I contracted caused pnemonia.. I had walking P .. for awhile I guess .. until last Monday when I was in the gym.. my stregnth level felt the best for the month .. but after 2 sets .. I stacked on more plates to my bench press.. and after the third set.. I was so winded I was gasping for air.. I got air.. but felt like I wasn't getting any "oxygen" .. after my workout.. I got on the recumbant bike... I usually do level 12 for 40 minutes.. like climbing a hill.. I go an average of 8 miles in 40 min.

affter peddling for 2 min. I was gulping air.. had to back down to level 8...and could not get any oxygen in my blood....

I finished my cardio.. wondering if it was something I ate... eating too close to my workout ... al the blood goes to my stomach.. anyway.. I didn't think so..

so not having to visit the Doc in 5 years.. I had no soreness in my joints.. no dizziness.. no numbness.. so I firgured my heart was ok..

I could only "guess' bronchial infection.. or pneumonia.. as a lot of cases since the Vog has been documented..

Now.. I am in no way medically educated.. but I know my body somewhat

Long story short.. I explained to the Doc my symptoms... got an xray... diagnosis came back.. pneumonia.. and I have to admit I was relieved it wasn't a new stain of Swine..

Zi still have a long way to go.. no cardio for a couple of weeks... but doc say's unless I am totally winded .. weights ar ok.. it's my training he say's that kept me going and out of the hospital... he did say he was shocked that my blood pressure was still above average..

so I am grateful for my regiment of hard training... but being 5'8" and 190lbs with between 10 to 12% body fat... .. at my height I should be 150lbs. .. so I need more oxygen than average.. and the pneumonia had 1/3 of my lungs.. and it felt like I could not get any oxygen.. so this morning is the first time in the last week that I felt that my blood was getting more oxygen... in fact it feels like more oxygen in a long time..

I told some friends that I have a new Empathy for asthmatic's... I scared myself several times.. waking up in the middle of the night .. gasping for air..thinking that in my sleep I'm forgetting to breathe.. when actually I was breathing but my oxygen level was so low.. I woke up gasping like you would do hitting the surface of the water after holding your breath unerwater until your lungs burned..

anyway.. thanks for letting me share this .. as It was and hopefully is, the last time like I felt I coudn't breathe....

A~C

Lani

[KB]

Let me tell you this Lani, I am convinced that pneumonia is way worse than H1N1 so I would not treat it lightly by any means.

What you describe with waking gasping for air I did that 2 years ago, when the wife took me to hospital I spent the next 2 weeks in an induced coma, so yeah listen to your body R because we only get one chance to stuff up.

Ken

[lanikai]

Let me tell you this Lani, I am convinced that pneumonia is way worse than H1N1 so I would not treat it lightly by any means.

What you describe with waking gasping for air I did that 2 years ago, when the wife took me to hospital I spent the next 2 weeks in an induced coma, so yeah listen to your body R because we only get one chance to stuff up.

Ken

thanks Ken... I am not taking it lightly... I have not had a drug other than asprin and Ibupophrin in my system for the last 5 years.. so the Azithromycin GG D8 500mg.... 3 day treatment is really kicking in.. this is my 3rd day on it.. until this morning I couldn't walk even a short distance without gasping for air..

I still get winded more than I did before all this happened... but even a 10% increase in oxygen is a God send.... imay even start wearing a mask when the VOG gets too heavy., that's some nasty shit...

Doc said I was just below the level of being hospitalized.. even though he knows I wouldn't allow it.. just can't..

But your right .. gotta nip this in the bud now..

thanks K

A~C

Lani

[docblackrock]

we got chatting to another Brit waiting in line, and he explained that the Japanese have pretty weak immune systems, hence all the masks.

Sorry but that's ridiculously untrue and borderline ignorant/racist in a embarrassingly colonial type of way. Reason they wear masks is predominantly psychological and cultural. Nothing more.

[docblackrock]

So now there's a doctor in the house, what is your opinion on the severity of this virus?

Ken

Sorry Ken, busy week only just caught up on this.

My own thoughts, given I'm also fastidious and slightly OCD about germs and infection myself, let's just say I'm not losing any sleep over this latest scare. Make of that what you will.

This 'swine flu' thankfully isn't sufficiently virulent to cause serious concern, however the speed at which it mutated and spread is worrying. Think of it as a warning....the next 'one' may be different. On a positive note, it will provide significant new data which may be helpful in the clinical development of new antiviral agents.

[docblackrock]

Lani, glad to see your doc played it by the book re the CXR and azithro as per my email. Remember what I also told you about the 3-day vs 5-day thing, well just don't expect miracles in 72 hours ok. Also as stubborn as you are, you seriously need to give yourself a couple of weeks' proper rest and recovery. Get yourself well soon

[TeeJay]

Sorry but that's ridiculously untrue and borderline ignorant/racist in a embarrassingly colonial type of way. Reason they wear masks is predominantly psychological and cultural. Nothing more.

Fair enough, I can only go by what I was told. Any idea why Japanese Customs won't let codeine into the county in any kind of over the counter medicines?

[Edit to add]

I don't think it's fair to say that the guy's comment was in any way racist, as he wasn't being bigoted at all, he didn't even seem like some kind of 'hooray henry ex-pat'. If he was wrong, then so be it, but he didn't seem to be being prejudiced at all, just speaking from his experience from living in Tokyo.

[TeeJay]

thanks Ken... I am not taking it lightly... I have not had a drug other than asprin and Ibupophrin in my system for the last 5 years.. so the Azithromycin GG D8 500mg.... 3 day treatment is really kicking in.. this is my 3rd day on it.. until this morning I couldn't walk even a short distance without gasping for air..

I still get winded more than I did before all this happened... but even a 10% increase in oxygen is a God send.... imay even start wearing a mask when the VOG gets too heavy., that's some nasty shit...

Doc said I was just below the level of being hospitalized.. even though he knows I wouldn't allow it.. just can't..

But your right .. gotta nip this in the bud now..

thanks K

A~C

Lani

I hope you're feeling better soon, bro

[docblackrock]

Fair enough, I can only go by what I was told. Any idea why Japanese Customs won't let codeine into the county in any kind of over the counter medicines?

[Edit to add]

I don't think it's fair to say that the guy's comment was in any way racist, as he wasn't being bigoted at all, he didn't even seem like some kind of 'hooray henry ex-pat'. If he was wrong, then so be it, but he didn't seem to be being prejudiced at all, just speaking from his experience from living in Tokyo.

Just because he lives there doesn't qualify his opinion. Whatever his own beliefs, it is still an ignorant and uneducated opinion which he freely shares with strangers at airports. This is how urban myths are created. Oh and even if it were true, the best way to toughen up an immune system? Exposure to pathogens. Japanese wear masks out of a mixture of paranoia, and social etiquette and stigma - not wanting to pass on say a common cold to their colleagues or to miss work through illness.

As for OTC medications containing codeine, it's no different to various European and Scandinavian countries regards availability - it's an opiate just like diamorphine (essentially synthetic heroin) and is therefore open to abuse hence a controlled substance.

[TeeJay]

Just because he lives there doesn't qualify his opinion. Whatever his own beliefs, it is still an ignorant and uneducated opinion which he freely shares with strangers at airports. This is how urban myths are created. Oh and even if it were true, the best way to toughen up an immune system? Exposure to pathogens. Japanese wear masks out of a mixture of paranoia, and social etiquette and stigma - not wanting to pass on say a common cold to their colleagues or to miss work through illness.

That's the thing, I knew about the not wanting to pass on colds and what not, but as you say, the best way to toughen up an immune system is exposure to pathogens. Is it possible that under-exposure to pathogens (through an incredibly sterile society) could lead to a weakening of the immune system?

As for OTC medications containing codeine, it's no different to various European and Scandinavian countries regards availability - it's an opiate just like diamorphine (essentially synthetic heroin) and is therefore open to abuse hence a controlled substance.

Ahh, I didn't realize that, thanks for the clarification

[KB]

The funny thing is that we have close to 900 case of H1N1 here in Victoria the second most affected state is NSW with some 70 odd cases and of course all the states are kind of treating Victoria as the leper state.

Well one of our top health guys blew that out of the water the other day, he said all the sates have most likely the same amount of cases it's just that Victoria's superior health system is finding ours quicker.

Ken

[docblackrock]

That's the thing, I knew about the not wanting to pass on colds and what not, but as you say, the best way to toughen up an immune system is exposure to pathogens. Is it possible that under-exposure to pathogens (through an incredibly sterile society) could lead to a weakening of the immune system?

No, not at a population or genetic level. Anyway Japan isn't an 'incredibly sterile' society, far from it, same as any developed country with open borders. No amount of face mask wearing will change that.

[TeeJay]

No, not at a population or genetic level. Anyway Japan isn't an 'incredibly sterile' society, far from it, same as any developed country with open borders. No amount of face mask wearing will change that.

Fair enough. I have to admit, it wasn't spotlessly clean there, but certainly not filthy, but I was thinking in terms of the facemasks, which isn't really seen in the UK or the US, and if that might have had the effect of reducing people's immune systems through reducing exposure to pathogens. Oh well

[Edit to add]

On a totally unrelated note, what's the picture of your avatar? I've always been curious about that.

[TwoTone]

Sorry but that's ridiculously untrue and borderline ignorant/racist in a embarrassingly colonial type of way. Reason they wear masks is predominantly psychological and cultural. Nothing more.

+ 1

On topic:

I left for my tri-annual pilgrimage to Mexico as the event was unfolding world wide - April 29th...

The flight from LA to Cabo was on a 737 that seats over 250 peeps...

There were about 75 on it...

Flight home was the same...

The city was all but deserted of tourist...

I felt really bad for the locals...

Double T

.

[KB]

Yes I can understand that but unfortunately when you traveled down South the media was still beating it up as the new plague.

Ken