But you already know the answer, no?
Edit to add: If you don't know, you should tell us and then we can try to help. If this is the case, I apologise, but it seems like it's another in the long line of 'test the geeks' that never really works. We've seen this a lot and it never proves anything, sorry.
Capitalism is supposed to work?
Seriously, if demand were waning, Rolex would have to lower their prices or suffer. Demand isn't dropping at all, so they have no reason to lower prices. Oh, apart from there's a case against them in the US that may force them to open up a bit, but that's another story for another day.
I wonder what the original poster hopes to gain by asking if we can spot his friend-of-a-friend-obviously-someone-famous-no-really-you've-heard-of-him's genuine Explorer as a genuine, apart from frottage points.
The WiS on the board won't bother as they don't need to prove themselves and find it insulting to be tested, so you'll just get a bunch of people saying "I don't know".
It's genuine, the FoaF is a pseudo-celebrity or something, move on.
I don't know about the watch, but there's something off with the pic. Something screams faked to me, and I don't know if it's the super-loose strap or the paper bag sleeves.