thoughts on the ipad

[redwatch]

The Loop reports that Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has released a report estimating first-day iPad sales in the range of 600,000-700,000, well above his pre-launch estimates of 200,000-300,000.

[redwatch]

Did you know that well over 90% of crashes on the Mac are caused by Adobe Flash?

Again with the Flash thing.....as Pugwash pointed out way back when in this thread. Yes, Flash would be nice, but it obviously hasn't hindered the sales of the iPhone in any way. And based on the info I just posted above, it's clear that the lack of Flash will in no way hinder the sales of the iPad.

And to be honest, I really think that HTML5 will take over from Flash anyways so maybe the lack of Flash is more likely forward thinking.

[Pugwash]

Again with the Flash thing.....as Pugwash pointed out way back when in this thread. Yes, Flash would be nice, but it obviously hasn't hindered the sales of the iPhone in any way. And based on the info I just posted above, it's clear that the lack of Flash will in no way hinder the sales of the iPad.

Estimated sales of 600k-700k, and that's of the non-3G version, and US-only. I'm quietly confident we'll hit the 2.5 million very soon.

[Mickey Padge]

That is a "If I win, it proves I'm right. If I lose, it proves I'm wrong" cop-out if ever I've heard one.

Since when was 752MB a large download? I download TV episodes I'll never watch that are almost twice that size.

It's bigger than most of M$ service pack releases I think, which is more relevant than some video file

[fakemaster]

There were people lining up the night before in my local area. They were literally pitching tents. What a bunch of idiots. But we had a good time. Got to see a fight break out.

[Mickey Padge]

There were people lining up the night before in my local area. They were literally pitching tents. What a bunch of idiots. But we had a good time. Got to see a fight break out.

I just don't understand the mindset of peeps that camp out in front of stores to buy something, don't they have anything better to do with their life?!

Sad, sad people.....

[Ronin]

Again with the Flash thing.....as Pugwash pointed out way back when in this thread. Yes, Flash would be nice, but it obviously hasn't hindered the sales of the iPhone in any way. And based on the info I just posted above, it's clear that the lack of Flash will in no way hinder the sales of the iPad.

And to be honest, I really think that HTML5 will take over from Flash anyways so maybe the lack of Flash is more likely forward thinking.

On a phone, sure, I think people are more accepting of its limitations. I think neither Apple nor Adobe were forward thinking here.

Honestly, I think this is all FUD (Flash crashes, etc). On my Win & Lin boxes I can not tell you the last time "Flash" has crashed or caused an issue. The Mac, in my experience, is a bit more susceptible, but really a non-issue as far as I am concerned. I do find it odd that the Mac's error handling in regards to Flash seems inferior to my Win/Lin-Firefox configured machines. I agree Flash is bloated and could use refinement. 87% of web sites still use Flash.

I am pro HTML5 as well. My point is excluding a technology that is ubiquitous with the internet is just flat out ridiculous. I would rather have an iPad and the occasional crash than not the full web. This is not a progressive Apple move like the Floppy or Dial-Up Modem.

Don't $hit yourself the "customer" is not Apple's top priority. I just had a conversations with a friend and we agreed/speculated-- with Steve at the helm the Apple priority tree goes something like this: 1.) Design aesthetics (thanks Steve) 2.) Profit/Shareholder Value 3.) Customers

Any device, slated to be a magical, revolutionary "Internet Device" that can NOT deliver a FULL internet experience as the internet exists TODAY is simply ridiculous. Nuff said...

[Pugwash]

Don't $hit yourself the "customer" is not Apple's top priority. I just had a conversations with a friend and we agreed/speculated-- with Steve at the helm the Apple priority tree goes something like this: 1.) Design aesthetics (thanks Steve) 2.) Profit/Shareholder Value 3.) Customers

Not even close. It's been Steve's open and visible mission statement from day one to change the world for the better.

Design aesthetics are not the top priority; usability is. I think you must be taking stuff for granted simply because it's so easy to use you assume it's nothing new. However, remember MP3 players before the iPod? Do you remember what a smartphone was like before the iPhone? Do you remember floppy disks and parallel ports? Remember computers without CDs? Remember computers without a mouse?

Usability, usability, usability. The design is a slave to that.

And yes, both profits and customers are a result of usability, not the goal.

If you still think Apple's priority is design aesthetics, you're missing the big picture. It's like a finger pointing at the moon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v= sDW6vkuqGLg&feature=player_embedded

Any device, slated to be a magical, revolutionary "Internet Device" that can NOT deliver a FULL internet experience as the internet exists TODAY is simply ridiculous. Nuff said...

Have you tried one?

And once again, tell me what sites we can't use because of no Flash. Farmville? Oh, whoop.

Find me one popular NON-VIDEO site that won't work because of the lack of Flash. If there is one, would it work with a touchscreen and without a persistent mouse/keyboard in the first place? If it's as important as you say it is, find me three.

[chronoluvvv]

I just don't understand the mindset of peeps that camp out in front of stores to buy something, don't they have anything better to do with their life?!

Sad, sad people.....

out here, its a seasonal business model

most of these campers either flip it on CL or on eBay and make a quick buck

[Pugwash]

Confirmed sales of 300,000 on day one.

[Ronin]

Not even close. It's been Steve's open and visible mission statement from day one to change the world for the better.

Usability, usability, usability. The design is a slave to that.

If you still think Apple's priority is design aesthetics, you're missing the big picture. It's like a finger pointing at the moon.

Have you tried one?

And once again, tell me what sites we can't use because of no Flash. Farmville? Oh, whoop.

Find me one popular NON-VIDEO site that won't work because of the lack of Flash. If there is one, would it work with a touchscreen and without a persistent mouse/keyboard in the first place? If it's as important as you say it is, find me three.

Great if usablity is such a priority, how come it can't deliver the same FULL web experience as my little Asus eeePC that I am typing on right now, at half the cost, and support for any video or audio codec, etc....

Usability, hahah, if I hand a new "buttonless" iPod shuffle to the average person, I bet they will be lost.

As far as sites go, most of the "trendy" restaurants in my city, fashion sites, and even the Yoga studio my wife attends does not work on an iProduct.

--

Ok, so here is the thing. I have been a borderline Apple Fanboy myself having grown up with Apple IIs, and once OS-X arrived, followed by the iPod I was a pretty big fanboy. I even appreciate what the iPhone did (that was revolutionary).

Then something happened. I realized, as a user of many operating systems, and "other" products here and there, that this whole notion of "Picking Sides", and "Product Loyalty" was actually ridiculous. Enter Windows 7, Nexus One, Android, etc, I realized that Apple, while good, was no longer the only decision.

Competition is good. I had someone ask me the age old "Mac or PC" question the other day. My answer has changed from "Get a Mac" to "With Windows 7 now, get what you can afford and what will work best with your school/business should you need to bring work home".

Call me when the iPad has a 16x9 display, supports a FULL web experience, camera for a skype call, etc. Call me when it is truly a technological break thru/marvel. Not just a "media consumption device-- of the kind of media they want to support".

Keeping an Open Mind,

-Ronin

[Ronin]

Wow! Just read this. This guy is on the exact same wavelength as I am:

Why I won't buy an iPad (and you shouldn't either)

[Pugwash]

Wow! Just read this. This guy is on the exact same wavelength as I am:

Why I won't buy an iPad (and you shouldn't either)

Cory Doctorow is wrong about this. There have been so many responses to this article explaining why, but I'll just pick one:

This was the weekend those of us with high standards lost their remaining residue of patience for ideologues who hyperbolize about open systems without actually creating something people want to use.

http://daringfawnyball.wordpress.com/2010/04/05/expertise/

Yeah, Cory is very, very wrong on this one.

On the subject of a 16:9 screen, this isn't a 4:3 screen, it's a 3:4 one that can be turned on its side.

Oh, and what you call a full web experience, I call a netbook with a tiny, tiny screen. If I wanted an Asus eePC, I'd have got one ages ago. I'm still waiting for you to tell me three non-video sites I'm not getting the full versions of. It shouldn't be hard.

Try an iPad and tell me if I'm wrong.

[Mickey Padge]

The Ipad has a 9.7" screen, most Netbooks are 10" or more, some of the nicer ones (still much cheaper than the Ipad) are 11.6", Like the Acer with a native 1366x768 resolution screen

[Pugwash]

The Ipad has a 9.7" screen, most Netbooks are 10" or more, some of the nicer ones (still much cheaper than the Ipad) are 11.6", Like the Acer with a native 1366x768 resolution screen

Most of the higher res ones are 1024x600, which is less than an iPad, but even that doesn't matter.

Look, the iPad isn't a NetBook. It isn't a PDA. There are a lot of things it's not. What it is is what appears to be something new, and something very welcome. I'm also looking forward to the Android pads in the hope that they don't suck.

It's a new form factor that no-one has made work before, and it looks like Apple may have solved the problems. Of course this means everyone else can get on with higher-specced devices that may or may not be any better. You'll say the Netbook is a better and cheaper solution today, but once that's forgotten, you'll universally hail another tablet as the iPad killer, then another and another. That is the way of things.

Don't write it off until you've used it. I'm not.

[Ronin]

To say Cory is just wrong is, well, wrong. His point on Infantalizing, Wal-Martilization I feel are very apt. "Idiot Proofing only creates more idiots". You, of all people with Apple II roots I thought would understand this.

For geographic and privacy reasons I am not going to provide you with a list of sites. If my word is not good enough about my wifes Yoga site, and the hand full of restaurants then ohh well.

You make valid points in most cases, but also micro focus on many of my points -vs- dealing with the big picture / technical merits / business model as a whole.

There is NO question that this will be a successful product, and I will most like lose my bet to you. I just question the blind loyalty, consumerism mentality that the people and this device is all about.

As far as your shot at the Netbook, I am at a loss as to what to say. It DOES deliver a FULL web experience and then some. A 10" screen and 90% keyboard make for an above average "Computing Experience". I can run Windows on it, I can run Linux on it, I can make it a Hackintosh, I can multi-task, make skype video calls on it, I can plug in USB devices and SD cards and watch VOB/DVD files on it. It is clear that you are more interested in the "Consumer Experience". I like having choices.

Peace,

Ronin

[Mickey Padge]

Most of the basic netbooks are 1024x600, that is the starting resolution for them, however "higher res" ones are 1366x768, I know, I sell them

I hope other manufactures bring out a similar device to the Ipad, but with an open system, multiple connections, and a 16:9 screen, for a reasonable price

I have nothing against the concept, I love gadgets, but this apple one is over priced and hamstrung. There are a lot of things the Ipad is not, one of them is useful

[Pugwash]

To say Cory is just wrong is, well, wrong. His point on Infantalizing, Wal-Martilization I feel are very apt. "Idiot Proofing only creates more idiots". You, of all people with Apple II roots I thought would understand this.

In 1980, I typed a basic programme into my mum's Commodore Pet and watched with amazement as it worked. Later on, I did the same on a ZX Spectrum and BBC Micro in the early 80s. Ah, what heady days!

It's easy to romanticise over these years, much like it is to look back fondly on sailing ships across the atlantic, when the reality is that it was a scurvy-filled hell.

No-one complains they can't root their microwave or overclock their coffee machine. In fact, console gamers have been perfectly happy to be locked into the exact same business model since the early 80s. Sure, you get the occasional hacker that will try to crack and chip their Xbox, but the majority of users don't care about that sort of thing. Same with the iPad; of course, it's already Jailbroken, why wouldn't it be?

Idiot Proofing doesn't create more idiots. How many race drivers can rebuild their engines? How many digital artists know how to write Wacom device drivers? And, to use a computing analogy, 99% of programmers haven't programmed in assembly since the 90s. Surely the C compiler would have killed programming dead, or Java would have done it, or Perl. How can you possibly imagine that creating more computer users than before would reduce the demand for high-quality programmers? It's a very unimaginative slippery slope fallacy, especially when you consider that introducing the iPad doesn't suddenly delete every other computer in the world.

Cory Doctorow is assuming a zero-sum game. He assumes that if the iPad succeeds, every other computer or tablet must fail, which is patently untenable, especially to a student of computer history. Besides, who says putting a device like the iPad in the hands of children won't make them all more creative? When faced with an eBook reader they can also write on, who's to say we won't have a necessary increase in literacy?

It's time to call bullsh!t on the argument there is one right way. Open-Source is great, so is closed-source. Good software doesn't need to be tied to one political view before it can be considered valid. Linux? Fantastic. Photoshop? Brilliant! Windows 7 Phone? Looks awesome. Mac OSX? Superb! Cory is a beard spurt away from becoming Stallman, the man who shackles himself to an inferior laptop simply because it's the only kind on the planet with an open-source BIOS. As long as there are nutters like him around, hackable devices will never disappear.

Excuse the length of this rant, but Cory Doctorow is wrong.

[TeeJay]

In 1980, I typed a basic programme into my mum's Commodore Pet and watched with amazement as it worked. Later on, I did the same on a ZX Spectrum and BBC Micro in the early 80s. Ah, what heady days!

It's easy to romanticise over these years, much like it is to look back fondly on sailing ships across the atlantic, when the reality is that it was a scurvy-filled hell.

No-one complains they can't root their microwave or overclock their coffee machine. In fact, console gamers have been perfectly happy to be locked into the exact same business model since the early 80s. Sure, you get the occasional hacker that will try to crack and chip their Xbox, but the majority of users don't care about that sort of thing. Same with the iPad; of course, it's already Jailbroken, why wouldn't it be?

Idiot Proofing doesn't create more idiots. How many race drivers can rebuild their engines? How many digital artists know how to write Wacom device drivers? And, to use a computing analogy, 99% of programmers haven't programmed in assembly since the 90s. Surely the C compiler would have killed programming dead, or Java would have done it, or Perl. How can you possibly imagine that creating more computer users than before would reduce the demand for high-quality programmers? It's a very unimaginative slippery slope fallacy, especially when you consider that introducing the iPad doesn't suddenly delete every other computer in the world.

Cory Doctorow is assuming a zero-sum game. He assumes that if the iPad succeeds, every other computer or tablet must fail, which is patently untenable, especially to a student of computer history. Besides, who says putting a device like the iPad in the hands of children won't make them all more creative? When faced with an eBook reader they can also write on, who's to say we won't have a necessary increase in literacy?

It's time to call bullsh!t on the argument there is one right way. Open-Source is great, so is closed-source. Good software doesn't need to be tied to one political view before it can be considered valid. Linux? Fantastic. Photoshop? Brilliant! Windows 7 Phone? Looks awesome. Mac OSX? Superb! Cory is a beard spurt away from becoming Stallman, the man who shackles himself to an inferior laptop simply because it's the only kind on the planet with an open-source BIOS. As long as there are nutters like him around, hackable devices will never disappear.

Excuse the length of this rant, but Cory Doctorow is wrong.

I don't think it would be a stretch of the imagination to say that 50, 40,30 years ago, the race drivers of the day would have, if not been able to build their engines themselves, certainly have had a working knowledge of the engines...

I'm still waiting to give the iPad a try, (and optimistically curious) but I have to agree with the point about Flash... I was trying to view a site earlier (advertising for Lambs Navy Rum) on my iPhone which I couldn't access due to the site using Flash... As mentioned above, it's tolerable on a smartphone all the time there's a desktop as a backup resource, but on something which might be purchased for someone instead of a netbook, I think it's somewhat less acceptable.

[Pugwash]

I don't think it would be a stretch of the imagination to say that 50, 40,30 years ago, the race drivers of the day would have, if not been able to build their engines themselves, certainly have had a working knowledge of the engines...

Yes, that was my point. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

I could also make out that Americans as a whole were worse drivers than Europeans because over 90% of them drive Automatics whereas it's under 10% in Europe, but the statistics don't bear that theory out either.

[TeeJay]

Yes, that was my point. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

I could also make out that Americans as a whole were worse drivers than Europeans because over 90% of them drive Automatics whereas it's under 10% in Europe, but the statistics don't bear that theory out either.

Ahh, I thought you were trying to say that idiot proofing doesn't create idiots, and using drivers as an example of modern drivers not having the knowledge of engines and car set up which a driver back in the 50s/60s/70s would almost certainly have had to a basic degree I can just imagine Lewis Hamilton bending over an engine and being a bit ...

I see the point about driving automatic as opposed to manual... I wouldn't go so far as to say that someone who can only drive automatic is a worse driver per se, but I would acknowledge that there is a difference in skill sets involved. I wouldn't blame 'idiot proofing' for creating idiots though, I'd blame substandard education systems and fluoride in the drinking water

[Pugwash]

I see the point about driving automatic as opposed to manual... I wouldn't go so far as to say that someone who can only drive automatic is a worse driver per se, but I would acknowledge that there is a difference in skill sets involved. I wouldn't blame 'idiot proofing' for creating idiots though, I'd blame substandard education systems and fluoride in the drinking water

Yet making cars automatic is considered idiot-proofing.

Also, removing the ability for the general public to tinker with their engines has certainly not reduced demand for car designers.

[TeeJay]

Yet making cars automatic is considered idiot-proofing.

Also, removing the ability for the general public to tinker with their engines has certainly not reduced demand for car designers.

I guess it depends on how one chooses to define the term... Automatic cars, personally, I would consider 'labor saving' rather than idiot proofing, afterall, a certain degree of nous and awareness is still required to be able to drive. For a car to be idiot proofed, I'd consider it to require full automatic driving (ie no need to manually steer) such as the cars in 6th Day or I, Robot, where the ability to actually know how to drive (beyond parking) is not a requirement...

Indeed, it hasn't reduced the demand for car designers, but, it does tie the consumer to 'authorized repair centers' for fear of validating a warranty, so the company retains the ability to keep charging the customer after the initial purchase (just like with Rolex service centers, for example) Sure, someone might feel happy doing repairs themselves for most things, but eventually, they might encounter a repair which is beyond their scope, so have to take it back to the garage for the service, only to be told "Sorry, you voided the warranty, it's not our problem anymore..." It's not just selling a product, but also forcing the buyer to remain in a closed market for future 'repairs/upgrades'...

[Ronin]

I think I understand your logic now Pug. And to put it into the context of a "Watch", Apple is basically the "Quartz Revolution" and the iProducts might as well be a swanky looking All Digital Quartz watch with a nice display and easy to use stop watch and Alarm function.

NOW I GET IT!!!!! Anyone can now tell time effortlessly and not be hindered by winding, winders, etc. On that note Pug, please sell me your awesome IWC rep since it is not as user friendly.

[TwoTone]

Don't write it off until you've used it. I'm not.

Been following this loop since its inception...

Pretty good debate...

Have enjoyed the differing opinions...

And the tone that they've been presented...

In regards to Pugs above quote:

I have to say that did just that when it came to the iPhone...

Took me a year and half to even pick one up, less lone buy one...

Today? I'm on my 3rd one and couldn't imagine not having it by my side...

iPad? Yep, I'll get one...

But...

I'll wait for the second round

Double T