Legend Posted August 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2012 All watch related companies are tightening the noose, I got word the other day from my Swiss contact that prices for ETA parts and movements are on the rise and are going to be harder and harder to acquire due to the big corporate entities wanting to limit the distribution of ETA parts on to the open market. So its not just China cracking down. All I can imagine is that since the economies of the world have slowed, people rather buy a good rep. for under $1000 as opposed to a $6k watch, and it's effecting everybody's bottom line. So it looks to me as if things are going to get harder in the future, hope I'm wrong, for all or sake... Hey J how you doing? Yes I guess it boils down to a question of demand, supply and affordability. As long as that $6000 watch is out of reach, yet desired, there will be a demand for reps. Like you, I hope that the crackdown is yet another one, and not one that forces this industry to go deeper underground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerthat Posted August 3, 2012 Report Share Posted August 3, 2012 I think higher prices unfortunately are going to be passed along in the very near future If nothing else this crackdown is costing the dealers and factories money More watches are being seized, there is pressure on the various supplier factories to not supply rep parts, assemblers are working odd hours, more police/political heat, etc... All of the above problems require more money The dial or movement supplier is going to charge the rep factory more to sell them parts because of the risk they are taking, higher percentage of seizures must be amortized in, police and politicians must be bribed more money than before to stay quiet and maybe even the employees are demanding more money to work for an illegal business and at night instead of day When factories costs increase for any reason the product they produce increases in price to the consumer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legend Posted August 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2012 I think higher prices unfortunately are going to be passed along in the very near future If nothing else this crackdown is costing the dealers and factories money More watches are being seized, there is pressure on the various supplier factories to not supply rep parts, assemblers are working odd hours, more police/political heat, etc... All of the above problems require more money The dial or movement supplier is going to charge the rep factory more to sell them parts because of the risk they are taking, higher percentage of seizures must be amortized in, police and politicians must be bribed more money than before to stay quiet and maybe even the employees are demanding more money to work for an illegal business and at night instead of day When factories costs increase for any reason the product they produce increases in price to the consumer cost increases could be absorbed by dealers in the short term, but yes I do foresee the prices of our toys going up in long term, not counting inflation. I just had a brief email exchange with my dealer today and though the website is up again today, things still look bleak. The raids have lessened in intensity somewhat, according to her, but they have not ended yet. The raids are estimated to go on for another 2-3 months according to my dealer. That's not good news for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panerai153 Posted August 3, 2012 Report Share Posted August 3, 2012 Sort of off subject but someone brought up the question about movements. AFAIK, the supply of Swiss ETA movements is drying up very fast. Swatch group owns ETA. Several yearsago, they filed notice with the appropriate Swiss Watch Governing authority that they were going to stop supplying movements to all watch builders outside the Swatch group. They were not alowed to do that at the time, as several manufacturers protested that they needed time to find another source for movements. I believe that Swatch is now choking off the supply. Several USA watchmakers have said on their watch forums that ETA movements are getting almost impossible to get. Most of them were farsighted enough to purchase a large supply of movements when this first started. Howrver, at some point in time they will be out of ETA's and will then have to substitute other brand movements. Another thing I've noticed, the price of movements has gone up quite a bit. I was looking at a website the other day, and the prices were a lot higher than a couple of years ago. I was seeing prices of ETA movements such as 2824 and 2836 at close to 200 USD each. Of course that's far more than the wholesale price, but the prices overall have risen. The point I'm trying to make is don't believe for a minute that the movement in your rep is a "real" Swiss ETA. I would bet that all the newer watches coming into the pipeline have Chinese clone ETA movements, nothing wrong with that necressarily, but I wouldn't pay and extra 100 USD for a Swiss movement. Better to buy the cheapest movement avaiilable, and should it fail, transplant in a known ETA or another cheap movement. This really has nothing to do with the future of the Chinese rep industry, except to add one more little problem to all the big ones they already have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archierocks Posted August 5, 2012 Report Share Posted August 5, 2012 i spoke to josh about a few things he says his end is clear its the factories and shipping side which are still getting hit says its a nightmare trying to get watches out so orders are going to take sometime he has a repair of mine which could be some months before its returned to me think i will be holding off ordering anything and if i get the thirst i will just buy from our sales area 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legend Posted August 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2012 i spoke to josh about a few things he says his end is clear its the factories and shipping side which are still getting hit says its a nightmare trying to get watches out so orders are going to take sometime he has a repair of mine which could be some months before its returned to me think i will be holding off ordering anything and if i get the thirst i will just buy from our sales area yes connie from kingwatch told me the same thing.. Both factory and shipping ends are hit. So it means even if an item is in stock, it might be able to be shipped "safely" to the buyer in the near future. I have placed an order nevertheless, and I hope that it would be shipped ASAP. Beware unscrupulous dealers who would take your payment anyway, without informing you of what is to be expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick86 Posted August 5, 2012 Report Share Posted August 5, 2012 Just had a message from toro, told me that there is availability from noob and not to listen to rumours..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolexman Posted August 5, 2012 Report Share Posted August 5, 2012 I just placed some high valued NOOB orders with Trusty. Let's see what happens... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legend Posted August 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2012 I just placed some high valued NOOB orders with Trusty. Let's see what happens... I think the situation has improved somewhat, and I hope you get your order in a timely manner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maverick86 Posted August 11, 2012 Report Share Posted August 11, 2012 Just sent joshua an email to get an update on the situation, regarding Noob factory, got this quite ominous reply: Hi, No sir. In fact they have closed their retail point at the market ... All projects are scraped. and they get rid of their current stocks via 2 market dealers. Looks like they have bite the dust. Thanks Joshua Perfect Clones www.1-pc8838.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogerthat Posted August 11, 2012 Report Share Posted August 11, 2012 Joshua and Andrew have been bashing the noob factory for multiple months It is borderline pathetic if all of their recent stories prove to be completely untrue I for one will never use either again! Angus and Toro are still getting new watches and sending qc pics on noob watches so while their production has slowed and many watches are back ordered it does not seem at all they they are closed Angus states all in fine with the noob factory so someone is not telling the truth and us members should not use whichever dealer or dealer in the end we find to be lying If it is angus lying many members with prepaid watches are going to cause serious problems in repdom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeeJay Posted August 11, 2012 Report Share Posted August 11, 2012 I've always said that Andrew and Josh cannot be trusted, and this is why I refuse to ever purchase from them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasebah Posted August 11, 2012 Report Share Posted August 11, 2012 (edited) Just on a sidenote. When the Noob PAM 243 was on backorder Josh told me I should defnitely buy the H-Maker as the Noob version has serious quality problems and the AR is total crap and Noob lied about the AR and the lume.....bla bla bla. His website was of course still praising Noob as the best there ever was. Needless to say that I ordered the Noob version somewhere else and received the best rep I ever owned. So I would just abandon the romantic idea of any of these guys telling the truth to their "longtime" customers. These guys are running a business and they will tell you what is good for them on any given day. If there is stock from A, B becomes crap and vice versa. They are no better than your regular used car dealer who knows you are just passing through. And they have no interest to tell you that Noob will probably come back when they fear that you might hold back your order. Sad to say something like that but that is just how the Chinese are. I have been organzing purchasing from South East Asia for many years and for several companies so trust me when I say I know what I am talking about. Edited August 11, 2012 by gasebah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolexman Posted August 11, 2012 Report Share Posted August 11, 2012 Still no QC from Andrew... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteM Posted August 11, 2012 Report Share Posted August 11, 2012 H maker have really taken their eye off the ball of late and have got worse in dealing with dealers.... Noob is defo getting it right at the moment.. Dealers like any trade always punt the prducts that is in thier interest to sell.... whatever those drivers maybe.. I wouldnt be too ready to believe some of the delays excuses being given of late.... I only say that because over the time of this thread I have had orders filled by my dealer from the factories mentioned in this thread... he got them day after ordering them... except for the TAG maker that took 3 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legend Posted August 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 Right now, we can only speculate what is really happening.. I have been informed by King that Noob factory would be resuming operations on 15th aug but this is not the first time that she has provided a date. The situation with Noob factory is big question mark, and I guess it would depend on who you ask. I believe that the raids aside, this is also motivated by benefits at dealer level. Some would be happy to take your pre-payment and play the delay game, while some would start pushing for you to take stocks from other factories. Like what someone mentioned here, there are elements of political motivation at the dealer level. We would all need to make our own assessment independent of what we are told. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xelorrolex Posted August 12, 2012 Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 Right now, we can only speculate what is really happening.. I have been informed by King that Noob factory would be resuming operations on 15th aug but this is not the first time that she has provided a date. (...) Like what someone mentioned here, there are elements of political motivation at the dealer level. We would all need to make our own assessment independent of what we are told. Same here: King (Connie) ask me to wait until the 15th to get more info ... meanwhile Andrew gave me no reserve to take the plunge, telling that he has a direct acces to Factories and stock I guess I'd beter wait and see what happen in the next few weeks ... Xel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trackpack Posted August 12, 2012 Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 Hmmm I love josh as a dealer but I suspect that's the business man talking. Seems like stock is still arriving to some dealers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Watchmeister Posted August 12, 2012 Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 One might guess that as the factories have to go further underground they will be more selective in their distribution so that just puts the burden on us to do our dealer due diligence. make sure your dealer already has, or can really access, what you are looking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legend Posted August 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 One might guess that as the factories have to go further underground they will be more selective in their distribution so that just puts the burden on us to do our dealer due diligence. make sure your dealer already has, or can really access, what you are looking for. and I guess this might also drive the price of reps up. bummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panerai153 Posted August 12, 2012 Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 and I guess this might also drive the price of reps up. bummer. No doubt this will become a question of supply and demand. If the factories are forced to go back to what they were 10 years ago, that is workshops with 20-50 people working, rather than 200-500, the supply will naturally shrink, and the prices will go up. I've got all the reps I need right now and for the foreseeable future. i am more inclined to buy watches from the sales forum anyway. First off you don't have any shipping risk, especially if shipping within the CONUS or from one EU country to another. If you are dealing with a reputable member and the watch isn't as described, you have some recourse, and finally lots of the watches for sale have been modded to some degree, and priced lower that you could buy a new watch and have the mods done yourself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gasebah Posted August 12, 2012 Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 (edited) i am more inclined to buy watches from the sales forum anyway. First off you don't have any shipping risk, especially if shipping within the CONUS or from one EU country to another. If you are dealing with a reputable member and the watch isn't as described, you have some recourse, and finally lots of the watches for sale have been modded to some degree, and priced lower that you could buy a new watch and have the mods done yourself. If prices will go up in the rep business (what I doubt) this will of course also affect the sales forum prices. Woulld be interesting to see if older repswill realize higher prices than what they were originally bought for. :-) I think it is funny anyway that reps seem to be almost as good as an investment as gens. :-) -Alex Edited August 12, 2012 by gasebah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panerai153 Posted August 12, 2012 Report Share Posted August 12, 2012 If prices will go up in the rep business (what I doubt) this will of course also affect the sales forum prices. Woulld be interesting to see if older repswill realize higher prices than what they were originally bought for. :-) I think it is funny anyway that reps seem to be almost as good as an investment as gens. :-) -Alex Alex, It may be more of a "cannot get the watch" rather than "Cannot afford the watch" Raising prices 20% will have some effect, but a more chilling effect would be no dealers, or dealers with no product. It will be a totally different hobby if the only watches available are from small workshops like the Ming Quy in Vietnam . They produce very high end reps, but at a stiff price. Prices like they charge for reps, 1-6K would probably eliminate 80-90 % of the buyers of rep watches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeeJay Posted August 13, 2012 Report Share Posted August 13, 2012 The thing I've observed through all this, is folks are still getting product through with no appreciable delay. I don't believe this to be anything than more 'little white lies', and all the time people discuss price rises as a potential inevitability, then dealers will raise prices accordingly, because they will know that people are not only expecting it, but will more than likely be prepared to pay that increase. Anyone remember the M.Night Shymalan movie The Villiage, where the residents were essentially kept inside due to a fear of the forest? What happened when the girl made it beyond the forest? Apply that same reasoning and rationalle to our hobby. While I wouldn't claim that the reps I buy are 1:1 flawless, I've never yet been called out wearing anything, even the most budget of watches. There's a product for everyone, and a price that's right for everyone, but folks really need to start thinking outside the box, rather than remaining fish in a barrel to a select few 'trusted' dealers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteM Posted August 13, 2012 Report Share Posted August 13, 2012 The thing I've observed through all this, is folks are still getting product through with no appreciable delay. I don't believe this to be anything than more 'little white lies', and all the time people discuss price rises as a potential inevitability, then dealers will raise prices accordingly, because they will know that people are not only expecting it, but will more than likely be prepared to pay that increase. Anyone remember the M.Night Shymalan movie The Villiage, where the residents were essentially kept inside due to a fear of the forest? What happened when the girl made it beyond the forest? Apply that same reasoning and rationalle to our hobby. While I wouldn't claim that the reps I buy are 1:1 flawless, I've never yet been called out wearing anything, even the most budget of watches. There's a product for everyone, and a price that's right for everyone, but folks really need to start thinking outside the box, rather than remaining fish in a barrel to a select few 'trusted' dealers... I got to agree with that mate.... Not from opinion but experience... one of those experiences being here now on my wrist.. sent last week arrived this AM.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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