Will gens eventually lose their value?

[DemonSlayer]

I was thinking that with the ease it is now to purchase reps, especially on auction sites, eventually the gens will begin to lose their value. There are millions of replicas available in China and I imagine thousands must be sent out every week and shipped abroad.

As more and more people begin to wear reps, and as the quality of reps are getting higher, I am beginning to think that eventually, it will be common to see people wearing Rolexes, Pams, Breilings etc and with such a good quality that it won't no longer be a big thing.

Am I crazy in thinking this?

Edited November 29, 2007 by DemonSlayer

[cornerstone]

More likely the used gen market will lose value because the brands have been caught being the buyers at the top of the auction market.

[DemonSlayer]

Yes I understand where you are coming from, but what I mean is if more and more people are seen wearing reps, then the brand will lose prestigiousness because more and more people are wearing them.

Let's say for example 1 million people in London bought a decent Rolex Submariner rep, not the tacky low end ones, then this will convince some who see it that it's real. Say this happened with Panerai's, the same thing will happen.

[Corgi]

This is, to some extent, already happening in many high-profile cities known for their affluent client

[TeeJay]

Interesting question...

Personally, I think as long as there is 'someone' who will buy the gens at their retail price, the companies will continue to sell them at those prices.

As for them 'losing their value', that's another matter entirely... I don't think that any of these high end watches are actually worth (in terms of nuts and bolts costs) the charges applied to them, so from that perspective, their value is (or rather should be) little more than the cost of the materials involved, and any advertizing/R&D costs (which have been recouped long ago)

All the time companies are prepared to outsource work, then they are effectively reducing the actual 'value' of their own product, as everyone knows, it doesn't make $5 to make a Big Mac, or $10 for a CD

[DemonSlayer]

Yes TeeJay, I agree with you entirely about the real value of these luxury brands. As I mentioned before in a PM with another member of this board, Seiko make fantastic quality watches and for the most part, their watches are not ridiculously over priced. Most of the cost of these brands is brand name, rather than actual materials and anything else.

We all know the extent of replica clothing, and footwear for example such as Nike and Adidas. In my opinion this is not really affecting the prestigeousness of these particular brands as their prices are not usually in the 1000's

However with Rolex, Panerai, Breitling and the likes, and also handbags as mentioned by Corgi, these are real high end goods.

[TeeJay]

Yes TeeJay, I agree with you entirely about the real value of these luxury brands. As I mentioned before in a PM with another member of this board, Seiko make fantastic quality watches and for the most part, their watches are not ridiculously over priced. Most of the cost of these brands is brand name, rather than actual materials and anything else.

We all know the extent of replica clothing, and footwear for example such as Nike and Adidas. In my opinion this is not really affecting the prestigeousness of these particular brands as their prices are not usually in the 1000's

However with Rolex, Panerai, Breitling and the likes, and also handbags as mentioned by Corgi, these are real high end goods.

Absolutely so, however, these are only 'high end' goods, because consumerism says they are. Okay, with some watches there is historical interest and value, but even that does not really translate into justifying the prices which companies charge for their products... That's why I say that the 'value' of the item, shouldn't be directly compared to the cash cost, for as I said above, as long as someone is prepared to pay the retail price, the companies will continue to charge them

[andreww]

There may be a lot of reps coming out of china, but for the most part those are really bad fakes. I really thing that you over estimate the number of really good reps out there. I live in a large city (Toronto), and I have yet to see someone else with a decent rep. Never seen an asian 7750 on the streets. There are plenty of subs and datejusts, but there simply aren't that many examples of anything else. Certainly not enough to threaten Breitling's or anybody else's market share.

[therebel]

I honestly belive that there will be a major crackdown on replicas before we see a noticeable impact on gen values. These high-end companies are backed by big money and have a lot of political influence.

[bruce79]

I think we're comparing two totally different markets in reps and gens...it was recently reported (WatchTime) that cosc certificates issued in 06 was an all time high. Meaning gens are selling better than ever. I know we're talking about gens losing their value but I feel that has more to do with the market of a particular brand/model of watch than everyone realizing how fantastic reps are nowadays. I know this is an ongoing discussion here on the boards but I just don't see reps affecting the sales of gens. The millions of reps that are sold every year are going to people who cannot afford a gen and probably wouldn't buy one even if they could. What affects the value of any particular gen is the market...can that watch be had new at a discounted rate, via the web or whatever, is it a special edition, are there tons of used models flooding the market or is it a highly sought after piece. Just my .02.

[freddy333]

As more and more people begin to wear reps, and as the quality of reps are getting higher, I am beginning to think that eventually, it will be common to see people wearing Rolexes, Pams, Breilings etc and with such a good quality that it won't no longer be a big thing.

You are right about the growing prevalence of quality reps & their growing encroachment on the gen market. But I think you are wrong about what it is leading to. The gen makers are wise to the 'problem' and, eventually, I think they will be forced to start taking a more active role in pursuing rep makers and distributors. It would also not surprise me to see Rolex, Panerai, Patek and a few others banding together into a consortium of sorts & following the RIAA's lead in taking legal action against a few end-users (rep buyers) so they can draw alot of media attention to the issue. Remember how the RIAA suddenly started grabbing headlines (and quickly dampened the mp3 downloading craze of a few years ago) by suing a handful of children, grandparents, single moms, even deceased great grandmothers for downloading free mp3s from 2 or 3 popular P2P sites. This is a good reason to keep RWG & similar/related sites well under the radar.

[By-Tor]

There may be a lot of reps coming out of china, but for the most part those are really bad fakes. I really thing that you over estimate the number of really good reps out there. I live in a large city (Toronto), and I have yet to see someone else with a decent rep. Never seen an asian 7750 on the streets. There are plenty of subs and datejusts, but there simply aren't that many examples of anything else. Certainly not enough to threaten Breitling's or anybody else's market share.

Exactly my thoughts Andreww.

Here in Scandinavia it's very rare to see anyone wearing a rep. But you can see many gen Rolexes, Omegas and Breitlings.

I've never met even a single person with a halfway decent replica. All reps I've seen (which is very rare) have been absolute junk.

[archibald]

I don't spend a lot of time worring about rep's effects on luxury goods makers, since their bottom line is undoubtedly influenced more by the advertising rates than high-end fakes, but my guess is that since most luxury items are bought with disposable income, 99% of their customers don't even consider buying reps, they just go to the store and shell out down the money. When you subtract the percentage of rep buyers who can't or won't buy gens for any reason, you're not left with a significant number of people who would buy gens if reps didn't exist.

To the extent reps have any impact at all, I'd say they're good for consumers of gen watches since they might help keep prices down and they definitely have forced gen makers to make their watches better finished, more complicated, and constructed of more interesting materials (At least those are the results of the efforts to thwart counterfeiting so far, at least).

I don't think there's any reason for any gen collectors to be anti-rep==they should be anti-scam. Anyway, which is easier? Stopping a multi gazillion dollar business in a country obsessed with emplyment rates and productivity, or urging ebay, timezone, etc crack down on assholes selling reps as gen?

[davidbir]

I have to relate this back to cars, the one subject I understand well. There has be an industry in replica Cobras for many years and we thought that they would kill the value of the real cars but it hasn't happened yet and remember, there were only about 1200 original Cobras built. Try doing that with Ferrari though and you have a whole different situation! Ferrari protect their copyright vigorously and have cease and desist orders placed on anyone trying to sell a Ferrari replica. In Italy there have been cases of beautiful but replica Ferraris and Maseratis being crushed by court order because they were being passed off as the real thing. The difference with the Cobra is that Shelby, the originator of the Cobra, didn't retain the copyright to the name or design and he is being forced now into selling "Cobras" that are built in an old MIG factory in Poland!-Then shipped here via South Africa.

If the major Swiss manufacturers want to they can make if very difficult for the replica trade I think. But until they feel really threatened it isn't worth their while.

Just my 2c worth

[Pugwash]

While high-end watch sales are up, low-end watch sales are down, thanks to people using mobile phones to tell the time. And yes, replicas will hurt high-end brands, just not yet.

[FxrAndy]

Was there not a thread a while ago where, some one said that rolly sales are down in a certain area due just to the fact that the first question that is asked is "is it real?", I for one even if i had the cash would not buy a real rolly because of this.

[freddy333]

As long as the major luxury brands see current year sales exceeding the previous year's sales, I think they would rather spend their time & resources on shoveling money into the bank than battling the industrial rep machine. But just wait and see what happens when gen watch sales start to taper off (or nosedive) & the profit train starts running out of coal........Then, the legal [censored] will hit the replica fan & every 4th post here will be something like 'Do you think they will try to shut us down or go after us?' And with the word 'Recession' looming on the horizon..............

[Watchmeister]

Well, so far the answer is a resounding no. High end watch sales are better than ever at higher prices than ever - at least as regards new watches. On the second hand side the majority of high end non-limited edition used watches are selling at 60% or less of the original sales price. This has been the case for many years. I agree that the minute gen manufacturers conclude that reps are really making a dent either in terms of sales or in overall brand reputation they go to larger effort to battle the reps. You can battle them two ways. You can go after the manufacturers/dealers to try and slow the flow or you can improve or change your watches to make them more difficult to replicate. It is no accident that Rolex leads the charge against reps as it is the most repped watch. And now they have gone one step further and changed (for the worse) a number of new models. It is also no surprise that Panerai is moving toward higher end original movement and more difficult to reproduce models and features. Finally, we do have a warped perspective about the number of high end reps being sold around the majority of the world.

[robertk]

Quality reps probably account for 1% of all rep sales. Most are crap.

Gen watch sales are at their highest in years. Reps ain't gonna make a dent.

As to whether gens will lose value, they already do. With only some exceptions, that Gen you bought 2-3 years ago new, has already dropped significantly in the used watch market. just like cars.

Much ado about nothing?

[TeeJay]

I think we're comparing two totally different markets in reps and gens...it was recently reported (WatchTime) that cosc certificates issued in 06 was an all time high. Meaning gens are selling better than ever. I know we're talking about gens losing their value but I feel that has more to do with the market of a particular brand/model of watch than everyone realizing how fantastic reps are nowadays. I know this is an ongoing discussion here on the boards but I just don't see reps affecting the sales of gens. The millions of reps that are sold every year are going to people who cannot afford a gen and probably wouldn't buy one even if they could. What affects the value of any particular gen is the market...can that watch be had new at a discounted rate, via the web or whatever, is it a special edition, are there tons of used models flooding the market or is it a highly sought after piece. Just my .02.

Sorry, but that's something of a false generalization. Look around at the membership of this, and other, forum(s). Many of the people here have the means to purchase the real thing, but, for various personal reasons, choose to buy reps instead. Sure, not everyone can afford gens, so they'll buy a rep, but, that doesn't mean that everyone who buy reps can't afford gens...

[Victoria]

Sorry, but that's something of a false generalization.

I totally agree.

Look around at the membership of this, and other, forum(s). Many of the people here have the means to purchase the real thing, but, for various personal reasons, choose to buy reps instead.

Absolutely.

Sure, not everyone can afford gens, so they'll buy a rep, but, that doesn't mean that everyone who buy reps can't afford gens...

Yes. Now, the difference is that possibly people who buy reps are not able to have the same arsenal of gens that they would reps. But that doesn't stand to reason that gen owners are more able to, either. In fact, so many rep owners are also gen owners, or will become ones, so the original sentence is false, a priori.

It's just that most middle-class people have to make economic choices. Leaving aside the moral considerations (loathe though I am, as you know), buying reps is about maximising your revenue. Given that we have a choice, we exercise it.

If the choice were taken away, and those same rep owners never became gen owners, then what was said might be correct -- I doubt it though.

Curiously, if the rep scene were totally cracked down on (impossible...), would the price of the reps be the ones skyrocketing? I think so.

[By-Tor]

Quality reps probably account for 1% of all rep sales.

Robert,

I think the percentage isn't even that. Try 0.1%.

Have you seen pics from those big rep sales markets in China? Shelves full of cheapest junk... hundreds of meters of shelves.

Remember teevtee's trip to China... to the heart of the reps in Guanghuzou (spell)... and how extremely difficult it was to find one real ETA-powered rep? Maybe things have changed lately, and reps have improved a bit though.

[Bark3rd]

Sorry, but that's something of a false generalization. Look around at the membership of this, and other, forum(s). Many of the people here have the means to purchase the real thing, but, for various personal reasons, choose to buy reps instead. Sure, not everyone can afford gens, so they'll buy a rep, but, that doesn't mean that everyone who buy reps can't afford gens...

I see the high end and low end rep markets driven by two different types of buyers; high end reps-purchased by more knowledgable people like RWG members (who not only can afford to buy gens but own several) and gen connoisseurs, then the low end reps whick I think attract an entirely different sucker for the most part. Very few people even know high end reps exist in comparison to the watch buying public at large. If any rep is going to have an effect on the value of gens it will be the high end ; my vote is this isn't even close to happening-the high end buying market is too small. Then, what do I know, the only rep I own is a UPO in the mail somewhere between China and Texas! I'm a Texan wearing a gen Bvulgari. A freak in his own land, a watch unappreciated. Recently I was with a friend who got a compliment on his hideous POS fossil- I was wearing a vintage Sub and received no such appreciation (and I am way sexier too). Go figure, there's your low end rep buyer-they don't compete with Gen buyers.

How many times did I type 'gen' and 'rep' in this post? Geesh, sorry- had quite a bit of wine with the wife while we were sitting here watching "Gangs of New York"-me with the laptop as usual.

Edited December 1, 2007 by Bark3rd

[Victoria]

How many times did I type 'gen' and 'rep' in this post? Geesh, sorry- had quite a bit of wine with the wife while we were sitting here watching "Gangs of New York"-me with the laptop as usual.

Vino or not, if this is your 6th post and you have this to offer as anecdotes in future, I will be one of your most avid readers. You're like Saki, without the sake.

[TeeJay]

I totally agree.

Absolutely.

Yes. Now, the difference is that possibly people who buy reps are not able to have the same arsenal of gens that they would reps. But that doesn't stand to reason that gen owners are more able to, either. In fact, so many rep owners are also gen owners, or will become ones, so the original sentence is false, a priori.

It's just that most middle-class people have to make economic choices. Leaving aside the moral considerations (loathe though I am, as you know), buying reps is about maximising your revenue. Given that we have a choice, we exercise it.

If the choice were taken away, and those same rep owners never became gen owners, then what was said might be correct -- I doubt it though.

Oh I quite agree, reps certainly give collectors the option to have many fine watches, rather than just one or two. Afterall, the four Rolexes and (soon to be) four PAMs in my collection would equal a heck of a lot of money, and sadly, I'm not a billionaire industrialist like Bruce Wayne, so I wouldn't've been able to afford all of them as gens. However, some of them, I could have done, and it was the generalization that people only by reps because they can't afford to buy any gens which I felt needed addressing.

Curiously, if the rep scene were totally cracked down on (impossible...), would the price of the reps be the ones skyrocketing? I think so.

Definitely. Thus is the nature of Supply and Demand. Of course, it wouldn't wind up too high, or people would just buy the gens anyway (unless they objected to consumerism, of course )

Edited December 1, 2007 by TeeJay