An Even Funnier Thing Happened This Morning

[freddy333]

This morning, I received 2 email offerings of Rolex items via email from ebay sellers that I regularly do business with (1 of whom is a very senior & respected TZ'r whose name shall remain anonymous so please do not ask). In both cases, the reason given for why they are hawking their wares via email instead of ebay - 'Because e-bay has refused to handle items with the Rolex logo on them'. More evidence that when the (economic) going gets tough, the gens send out their lawyers, which reminds me of this -

'Intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic regarded us with envious eyes, and slowly and surely joined their plans against us' - War of the Worlds (paraphrased), H.G.Wells

[deltatahoe]

wow. your two recent posts remind me of this (in a raspy voice) -

"oh the times, they are a'changin" - bob dylan

deltatahoe

[Toadtorrent]

El Bay is refusing to do Rollies??? That's crazy. Man...somebody's lawyers are indeed looking for something to do.

[XWORD]

Let me get this straight, you mean to tell me if I own a Rolex, I am unable to sell it on ebay? That's absurd. Maybe gray market sellers, but not private individuals. I don't remember ever signing any disclosure saying that I'd own any watch for life. Sounds like they just want a piece of everybody's action. Boo Hoo WAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!! Big Rolex baby want num num($$$).

[dieselpower]

Dah dah daaaaaah - duddle a duddle a - dah dah daaaaaaaa.......

[freddy333]

I believe the new edict is directed towards sellers of Rolex branded parts, not whole Rolex watches. Rolex has a long-standing history (not to mention a trail of court cases) of doing everything in their power to strictly limit sales of Rolex parts to authorized Rolex agents within the official distributor network. For years, Rolex has been doing battle with ebay & other online auction platforms over the issue of an individual's ownership of (& ability to sell) individual Rolex parts (Rolex has always taken the stance that Rolex S.A. owns ANY & ALL individual parts bearing a Rolex trademark). But when profits were good, they tended to ignore most of what went on online. However, as has been predicted previously, once sales begin to slip & profits weaken, they put their lawyers to work locating potential sources of missing profits.

[jjfesq]

do you really think parts sales are eating into the Rolex bottom line?

[freddy333]

Ah, yes.

[gplracer]

It surprises me that Rolex would have enough influence to make this happen. Do you think it is the threat of fake rolex parts on ebay? I mean heck what if someone had a vintage watch and wanted to part it out on rolex? Rolex has enough say so that he/she would not be able to do that?

[freddy333]

Do you think it is the threat of fake rolex parts on ebay?

Yes, I am sure that is part of it.

I mean heck what if someone had a vintage watch and wanted to part it out on rolex? Rolex has enough say so that he/she would not be able to do that?

Yes, apparently they do.

[Shundi]

Row row, fight the powah...

Seriously though...that's really disturbing...esp. to those of us with vintage projects in the works... not to mention parts for my gens...

Soon the only option is going to be underground black markets....seriously.

Thanks for the heads up freddy...

[Watchmeister]

If I remember correctly, Rolex was one of the leading lobbyists when the trade groups went after Ebay trying to allege guilt for facilitating the sale of fakes. As you may recall they lost in the U.S. and won in the EU. Also Rolex has the unique problem of being the brand most copied and with the most accurate fakes and frankens sold. Perhaps all you Rolex fans should vote with your wallets. Stop buying. I completely lost respect for them anyhow when they stopped supporting their vintage watches.

[automatico]

f333:

"Rolex has a long-standing history (not to mention a trail of court cases) of doing everything in their power to strictly limit sales of Rolex parts to authorized Rolex agents within the official distributor network. For years, Rolex has been doing battle with ebay & other online auction platforms over the issue of an individual's ownership of (& ability to sell) individual Rolex parts (Rolex has always taken the stance that Rolex S.A. owns ANY & ALL individual parts bearing a Rolex trademark)."

I have tried to help by parting out my share of genuine rolex watches over the years. It's the least I can do.

Btw...I think retail rolex watch sales are deep in the crapper in the USA despite what 'serious internet rolexjunkies' say.

(SIRJ = internet rolexjunkie with no sense of humor about replicas)

For example,

http://www.bernardwatch.com/Rolex

JB has 270+ rolex watches for sale (as of today) and most of them are new in the box aka "unworn". He usually has 20 or 30. The "unworn" watches all had to come from rolex ADs.

note:

You have to use the term "unworn" because rUSA will come after you if you advertize a rolex watch to be "new" because they claim only authorized rolex ADs can sell new rolex watches. That's an oxymoron for sure because many ADs sell trade ins and returned watches as "new" to suckers who do not look carefully.

How?

Some rolex ADs have a "trade in guarantee" etc and will take any rolex back that was bought "new" within 30 days for full credit on another "new" rolex watch with a higher price tag. They do not send out the papers until the 30 days has passed so they can shine up the trade in and resell it as "new" again.

Maybe that is why there is no longer a hologram on the caseback to wear away and show age.

K00...

"Perhaps all you Rolex fans should vote with your wallets. Stop buying. I completely lost respect for them anyhow when they stopped supporting their vintage watches."

I agree 100%

...but I might pay 20 cents on the retail dollar for a brand new one when the prices get that low.

Don't laugh, it can happen. Right now...I would be afraid to offer dealer cost for a tutone DJ, YM, yellow prez etc unless I wanted to take it home.

After Christmas, tutones, solid gold etc may drop below dealer cost as struggling rolex ADs try to blow all their dead stock out so they can pay consignment bills. I know one area rolex AD that is just barely limping along, hoping to sell enough Christmas stuff to get by a while longer.

Someone told me last week that the store had turned the heat down to 60 degrees and turned some of the overhead lights off to save $$.

I may go see them in mid January when it's 20 degrees outside and cloudy with snow flurries...if they are still open.

[Watchmeister]

Actually Rolex is one of the brands most at risk as a large percentage of its new sales are entry level for high quality watches (graduation, first job, retirement, etc.). And yes I would guess we will see their watches beginning to fall. Whether they ever get below dealer cost as new I doubt but those used Daytona's are well on their way down to $8,000 and the vintages have come down quite a bit - not the ask but what people actually pay. Speaking with one of the few large Rolex collectors I know he figures that the high end stuff has easily come off 20-30% off the highs. I couldn't afford it in the first place so it was never an issue for me but I found it interesting.

[freddy333]

the high end stuff has easily come off 20-30% off the highs.

Only 30%???? I am seeing alot of minty Newmans that were selling (FAST), in April, for $80,000-$100,000 now going unsold at $25k. It is definitely a buyers' market out there. But, judging from Rolex's resiliency following the previous economic landslide ('87), I am sure the buyers' market will begin reversing back into a sellers' paradise the day after the market trends rebound. Of course, who knows when that will happen? It could be next week or next year.

[gplracer]

My family used to own a jewelry store. My dad has been in the jewelry business for 40 years. He had a friend that sold all kinds of watches. The price was cost plus 10%. He got them from dealers he knew I guess. We could always call him and get almost any rolex model for cost plus 10%. We then sold it at a 20% discount off the regular price. Granted we did not sell many but a few of our good customers would sometimes ask if we could get one for them. This was 20 years ago. I bet things have changed a lot since them. I think back around that time a stainless rolex submariner sold for about $2500.

[freddy333]

Yes, things have changed. 20 years ago, people in the US used to be able to buy any Rolex part over-the-counter from any a local AD. Today, even the ADs cannot get parts unless they are within the official Rolex dealer network & have an on-site service center with a parts account. And those that can get parts are not permitted to sell them. ADs treat their clients much better in the UK & EC.

[offshore]

As a side note, an aquaintence who owns a couple of Rolex, has just returned from Singapore/HK.

He tells me the used watch sellers, have literally drawers full of used Rolex and other high end stuff, recently sold to them.

The statement was that "many bankers and businessmen are unloading their toys, and the current values were 20% of what they were 6 months ago"

Don't know how much creedence can be placed in this doom and gloom statement, but that was relayed to me last weekend.

This guy is an Indian softgoods trader, who is suffering hugely with the downturn, so it probably made him feel a bit better.

Offshore

[coolfire]

As a side note, an aquaintence who owns a couple of Rolex, has just returned from Singapore/HK.

He tells me the used watch sellers, have literally drawers full of used Rolex and other high end stuff, recently sold to them.

The statement was that "many bankers and businessmen are unloading their toys, and the current values were 20% of what they were 6 months ago"

Don't know how much creedence can be placed in this doom and gloom statement, but that was relayed to me last weekend.

This guy is an Indian softgoods trader, who is suffering hugely with the downturn, so it probably made him feel a bit better.

Offshore

Ah... That could very well be true!

[Watchmeister]

In the current environment it is pretty tough to figure out what to buy in the gen market. Especially since prices most likely have nowhere to go but down (at least for the next few quarters anyhow). I do agree with you Freddy that in the long run (10 years plus though) there may be a real opportunity to buy vintage Rolexes in the next 12-24 months with some real long term appreciation potential. Just don't ever wear them since you can't get any parts - and not from them either. What goes around comes around. IMHO, they will lose control over their dealer network's actions and all bets will be off. The grey market inventories (new items off-loaded by dealers at cost (or close to) which resellers sell substantially below where dealer are allowed to sell) in my town have ballooned in the last few months. No different for Panerai or Breitling though. Watch markets look like the securities markets. When there is no market an item will only get what the next guy is willing to pay. And all those Newman daytonas which are going unsold at $25k will at some point get sold for $15k.

[JoJo35]

In the current environment it is pretty tough to figure out what to buy in the gen market. Especially since prices most likely have nowhere to go but down (at least for the next few quarters anyhow). I do agree with you Freddy that in the long run (10 years plus though) there may be a real opportunity to buy vintage Rolexes in the next 12-24 months with some real long term appreciation potential. Just don't ever wear them since you can't get any parts - and not from them either. What goes around comes around. IMHO, they will lose control over their dealer network's actions and all bets will be off. The grey market inventories (new items off-loaded by dealers at cost (or close to) which resellers sell substantially below where dealer are allowed to sell) in my town have ballooned in the last few months. No different for Panerai or Breitling though. Watch markets look like the securities markets. When there is no market an item will only get what the next guy is willing to pay. And all those Newman daytonas which are going unsold at $25k will at some point get sold for $15k.

I agree freddy and kruz, deals certainly can be found in today's market. I just picked up a transitional sub with box/papers for a great price

[Watchmeister]

Heck, if these unique vintage Rolexes keep going down I may buy one. But I am figuring second quarter of 2009 unless one of the big collectors goes belly up and has to liquidate in the iinterim. But in environments like this (at least in the USA) you never know when someone gives in and simply brings in the Rolex he was given as a boy (let's assume it is a Double red ) and you just have to be there to get it.

[freddy333]

Case in point - I recently picked up a mint 'Roulette' (red/black) date disc for my 6542 project. The last 2 Roulettes (neither in quite the same condition) sold for $2,300 & $2,500, respectively. I paid less than $600 for mine (& it probably would have gone unsold had I not grabbed it). To be sure, that is still an insane amount for a small date disc. But, in the world of vintage Rolex, insanity is (always) the next 'black', regardless of the state of the economy.

[automatico]

quote =

As a side note, an aquaintence who owns a couple of Rolex, has just returned from Singapore/HK.

He tells me the used watch sellers, have literally drawers full of used Rolex and other high end stuff, recently sold to them.

The statement was that "many bankers and businessmen are unloading their toys, and the current values were 20% of what they were 6 months ago"

Don't know how much creedence can be placed in this doom and gloom statement, but that was relayed to me last weekend.

This guy is an Indian softgoods trader, who is suffering hugely with the downturn, so it probably made him feel a bit better.

/quote

A friend trades in gold and diamond jewelry as well as scrap gold and he also buys quite a few solid gold watches (no gold rolex...yet) for less than the case will scrap for. He holds them a few days until I look through them and buy what I want for $20 to $25 each over what he paid.

He also buys 'unworn' and 'like new' rolex watches and in the past few years, I bought over a dozen 'unworn' and 'like new' rolex air kings (14010/14010M) from him for $900 (like new) and $1000 (new) each, the last one a few months ago. Like new = 95% condition, worn a few days.

(there's a story behind the AKs and I will not tell it here, but they are all legal with papers etc)

When times are hard, a fancy watch is not worth much to the guy who needs quick $$ to pay a mortgage, car payment, tuition, or food.

We pay more than a pawn shop because I can usually read their price codes and the last 14000 air king I looked at (in a pawn shop) was priced at $1200 and they had $400 in it. I offered $800 otd and they ran me off.

Anyone who thinks the bottom has not dropped out of watches (in the USA) is looking in the wrong place.

Tomorrow is trading day...no telling what I might come home with.

[llsteve80]

It's kind of interesting to see the Rolex prices dropping. Rolex is associated with wealth and luxury, and for the wealthy the economy is different. Case in point, during the housing slump my boss put his 9 acre log cabin estate on the market for 1.2 million. He was assuming that with the current trend, it would take months to over a year to sell. It sold in 2 days. New buyers paid cash. The wealthy are way less affected by downturns in the economy than the average Joe, but yes, they are still affected. To see price ranges drop so much for collectible watches is kind of odd to me. Of course, take in to consideration that maybe many of the collectors of Rolex are guys like us, that may account for the fact that there are less people willing to pay so much for something they really want. The wealthy may just be getting great deals for now.