jonthebhoy Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 "The global economic downturn will conversely trigger a higher demand for replica goods." Discuss. JTB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaotik Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 "The global economic downturn will conversely trigger a higher demand for replica goods." Not sure I necessarily agree with this statement. This week on the news up in Montreal, their envoy to China made a story on how much the sales of counterfeit good was affected by the downturn. They were primarily talking about painting replicas and showing streets full of Van Gogh's that are usually packed with people and they were deserted now. Not sure if this will also be true for watches. But I think in a downturn, people tend to cut unnecessary spending... and watches (gen or rep) are unnecessary to most people In a way, I'm hoping that holds true and demand goes down a bit. This way all those $400+ super reps may come down in price a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgchrono2 Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 iam expecting also a reduction in Replica watches prices. recently they went up & we have replicas of 400 -700 usd offered.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dluddy Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 In general I would agree as discretionary spending decreases overall.... But from an timepiece perspective, I see that this economic downturn has caused prices for genuine watches in the resale market to drop. Looking at RWG and the number of highly modded reps being offered for sale to fund genuine purchase, one could argue that this phenomena has caused an increase in the availability of higher quality reps. It remains to be seen, what effect the economic woes have on the Rep factories and their ability to crank out new offerings after the New Year which has just passed...I suspect we might see prices start to creep back down again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
By-Tor Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 watches (gen or rep) are unnecessary to most people "Unnecessary"? Yeah, world is full of all kinds of weirdos. I agree with tgchrono. The prices will come down, there's no other way. You can find gens for bargain prices now... and I'm sure they'll become even cheaper within the next few years (if this economic situation continues). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgchrono2 Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 i have seen almost 30 - 40% reduction in retail prices of AD watch stores if you buy with cash (not credit cards) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RLudlowe Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 With the price of Gens coming down as fast as they are, if the reps don't come down the Gens will soon be the cheaper alternative - Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkerouac Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 Consumers in general are cutting their spending, even if not at immediate risk of layoff. When I do spend money, right now I lean toward purchases that will make a difference in my local economy rather than for the benefit of rep dealers and factories. Buy from a local flooring dealer, perhaps hire a handyman if you can't do the work for yourself, and patronize small local restaurants. I want these people to stick around and in turn be able to do their parts for the local economy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b16a2 Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 People with low discretionary income may cease to buy replicas, and instead concentrate their investment on the necessities of life. However, those who have a larger discretionary income, the likes who own reps and gens, or gens, may invest more. For example. Person 'X' usually buys gens, but their discretionary income is reduced, so they may choose to buy reps in the economic downturn to feed their addiction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanuq Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 I've found that vintage gens are now cheaper than many reps... and prices are dropping. Example, that gorgeous Gerard-Perregaux automatic that Offshore posted a couple days ago. It was a *perfect* 60s dress watch and went for under $500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Tracy Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 For me at least, today's economic times have forced me to cut all wastes out of my budget, and though I do love replicas, when I add up all the money I have spent over the years, and compare that to what I currently own, and their worth, it dosen't make for a logical argument to the wife at the end of the day. Though I would not call my replica times a total waste, as I have enjoyed the variety,.. I must admit that it was somewhat irresponsible from an economical standpoint, as I used the low pricing of replicas as an excuse to buy like there was no tomorrow, and tomorrow has caught up with me. The escalating prices of replicas have sealed the deal, as they have placed themselves into the price range of genuines,.. a place in which they clearly cannot compete. Thus I'm currently only seeking to invest in low priced genuines such as Hamilton, Philipe Watch ect. as I believe that they are the future of the mechanical watch world, companies that have logical pricing combined with high quality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
By-Tor Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 The escalating prices of replicas have sealed the deal, as they have placed themselves into the price range of genuines,.. a place in which they clearly cannot compete. Good post as usual Richard. But quality wise... or from purely common sense standpoint this statement is 100% true. But people aren't just buying mechanical watches. Quality is important, but it's not the main factor to many rep purchases... it's the human nature. People want to have $5K luxury things for $500, no matter how flawed this logic is. Think of the WM9 Sub with genuine ETA movement. Change a gen crown and virtually indistinguishable. Reps like this didn't exist when we started this hobby. However, we had better movements. The visuals have improved dramatically, but the mechanical quality of movements have decreased (generally). Hamiltons, Marcellos and all that... nice watches and I'm sure the quality is decent. But it's decent in Seiko and Citizen too. Personally, I don't find most of those watches fascinating at all, and they don't compete with reps directly (imho). But if (and when) the prices of 2nd hand mainstream "high end" brands like Omega, TAG and Breitling come down, selling more expensive reps might become a real challenge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gioarmani Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 I whole-heartedly agree. Every time you witness an economic crisis (i.e. recession, etc.) the cheaper means of living always flourish. NPR has reported on the income of cobblers, for example, going through the roof due to those willing to repair shoes rather than replace them. Stocks on cheaper retail lines such as Wal-mart and Dollar General have also returned huge gains. Everyone from Amazon to car dealerships are now saying that the quantity of their sales of used & refurbished merchandise is almost exceeding that of their new merchandise. And even CNN reported yesterday that high-end manufacturers like Armani, and Louis Vuitton--among others--are moving operations from Europe to China, due to production costs. To extrapolate on the later point, due to the inherent nature of the Chinese manufacturing sector and their well-earned reputation for bootlegging whatever "legally" comes their way, having in-country legal access to the technical aspects of producing the real thing will also send the quality of the reps up as well; not to mention the demand for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonthebhoy Posted February 4, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 Brilliant debate guys. Keep it up. Superb contributions from our RWG family! JTB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fat.tail.event Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 "The global economic downturn will conversely trigger a higher demand for replica goods." Discuss. JTB Overall, I disagree with this statement. Thus far, year-over-year sales have decreased no matter the sector. Does anyone know what percentage of the replica market would be considered superior copies vs. the average/below average goods? Without any evidence behind my opinion, I would wager to say that lower end replica goods are getting slammed harder due to lack or foot traffic, travelling to places like China or even Canal St. Not saying higher end replica gear is up, just possibly less down. I also wonder about geography. An American's idea of saving money is shopping sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 4, 2009 Report Share Posted February 4, 2009 Surely it should be a case of simple economics, people have a lot less money to spend, so demand falls. Market is very much determined by the genuine watches market, as the second-hand market gets flooded with premium discounted merchandise the opportunity cost rises. It's very similar to the car market, when an M5 cost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigpops Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 It's having the opposite effect on me. Replica watches have become too expensive due to the weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
By-Tor Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 Sometimes I wonder about this endless debate about "quality" and "better value for money" thing. I have my gen Rolex and rep Rolex here side-by-side and they both keep excellent time, feel at least 95-99% the same. If your rep has a genuine ETA movement in it, it's not one of those few "bad apples", the function and sweep are the same. I don't see the "dramatic" difference that people always talk about. Sure... you need to make some precautionary things occasionally, like glue the bracelet screws in, oil the bands and maybe even do some mods... etc. but that's just fun. Yeah I see some visual differences in the finish too, because I'm a watch fanatic, and those are visible in the zoomed pictures (if you're lucky and the lightbox settings are optimal). What is "quality" and how do you actually measure it... if the watch functions and keeps good time? I understand when we're talking about watches like Patek, Breguet and JLC... reps can't compete. But mass produced brands like Omega, Breitling and Rolex... what's so special about them, besides (often) the amazing design that the replicas forge? Especially stainless steel Rolex... as much as I love my gen I simply don't see the dramatic difference here. I own some reps (like the SFSO) that easily surpasses the feel and "quality feel" of my gen Rolex and gen TAGs (that I used to own). I'm afraid 70% of of the membership in the replica community comes here for their quick Sub fix and then disappear... or might eventually get interested in watches a little during their search process. They're not hardcore WIS, but their main motivation is impress someone. In that sense I don't see brands like Hamilton being any kind of threat to high end reps (on a larger scale anyway). This went a bit OT now though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corgi Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 I had to cut replica watches out of my budget. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
automatico Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 "I've found that vintage gens are now cheaper than many reps... and prices are dropping. Example, that gorgeous Gerard-Perregaux automatic that Offshore posted a couple days ago. It was a *perfect* 60s dress watch and went for under $500." I found a few genuine watches at reasonable prices lately, all three in pawn shops. 1...All original steel rolex 6605 DJ (made 1959, swiss jubilee, super nice dial, cal 1066, no case corrosion) in mid January for $700...this is close to what a new high end replica will cost. 2...Vintage (early 1980's) quartz tutone omega constellation for $65...this is close to what a used Asian movement replica sells for. They were good buys if you are looking at "the other side" of buying watches. 3...I also bought a steel quartz tissot PR50 for $43 but I will probably not come out on it as it needs a $12 sapphire crystal and is a $60 or $70 watch. I may come out OK in a trade though. The other side = selling them when you need $$ or want something else and the first two watches will hold their purchase prices. Since very few replicas hold their purchase prices, now is a good time to shop around and see what your money will buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanuq Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 Too bad this economic downturn is not also driving down the prices of guitars! The one I've been lusting after is still a bit overpriced for my tastes. ........... a mere $135,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonthebhoy Posted February 5, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 Too bad this economic downturn is not also driving down the prices of guitars! The one I've been lusting after is still a bit overpriced for my tastes. ........... a mere $135,000 Picture please Bob! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 Wow I didn't even know you can get guitars that expensive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanuq Posted February 5, 2009 Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 Picture please Bob! Here she is... a 1942 Martin D45 for a mere $135,000 Although this one will do as well, a 1941 D28 for only $75,000. A bargain!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonthebhoy Posted February 5, 2009 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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