Are the prices getting too high?

[GShocked]

So this post really doesn't apply much to the millionaires on the forum or people that can afford a 100k Patek. This is more for your average person that lives pay to pay or is middle class. As the prices get into really ridiculous/insane territory on some of these brands that are entry level "luxury" at best...are Microbrands the only viable option then? Rolex has just gotten into territory for MSRP that is just not even doable for most people out there. I predict that someday the party is going to end for them, and they'll be selling a lot less watches as a result of the prices just getting too inflated. Hopefully some brands out there keep the prices reasonable. I don't have a reason personally to ever buy a Rolex as my Owc Bond has been fantastic. Can't ever afford a Patek either, but I respect both brands contributions to horology. 

 

Even the japanese watches are starting to get into expensive ranges for movements that are average at best. 

 

Your thoughts? 

[Nanuq]

Yep, but the fly in the ointment is, Rolex easily sells every watch they make, at these prices.

 

I personally said forget it, and turned my interests toward used/vintage pieces.  They used to be pretty affordable and now they're going nuts... usually worse than the new ones.

 

So now I'm playing with microbrands.  There are some remarkably nice watches out there for giveaway prices.  Take the Maranez divers for example.  They cloned the Doxa diver look, and IMHO they are a better watch than the original Doxas were, for $175 shipped.

 

Or you can go down the grow-your-own path and starting with a Seiko SRP, you can buy a handful of Yobokies, Dagaz, CrystalTimes and One-Second-Closer parts and make anything your heart desires.  And if the movement craps out, replace it for $25.  Behold the "Soxa" built for around $450.

 

[GShocked]

I have to agree, the used prices are getting really bad, especially for Vintage. It's good for anyone that bought the old Seamasters from the 70s for $300 back in 2010 or so. 

[freddy333]

A few random thoughts -

If I got a nickel every time someone complained about the rising prices of LUXURY watches, I would be able to purchase a new Air King - if I could find 1 in stock at an AD.

The LUXURY watch market is 1 of the best demonstrations of simple supply & demand I can think of. As more people dump their fashionable Dick Tracy cartoon gizmos (ie Apple 'watch') in favor of a timeless gentleman's timepiece, whether high-end or entry-level, DEMAND increases. At the same time, most of the LUXURY watch brands cannot SUPPLY more than they do because - 1. producing more would cause them to either change their established production systems or reduce quality; & 2. producing more would dilute their exclusivity, making them more accessible to more people & less 'valuable' - both in dollars & as aspirational benchmarks to those who appreciate meritocracy.

If I got a nickel every time someone predicted Rolex's eventual collapse due to their ever-increasing MSRP, I would be able to purchase a new Daytona - if I thought I would live long enough to make it to the top of the waiting list.

As has been said many times, this time next year, today's 'outrageous' vintage Rolex asking price will seem like a bargain. Since I got into watch collecting (mid-80s), there are three things that appear to be  constants - death, taxes & escalating Rolex prices (especially vintage). Rolex gentleman's watches are & will always be stylish (as opposed to fashionable). As demand (for a limited supply) increases, so do prices.

Aside from their precious metal content, I do think that many Pateks & similar haute horology pieces (that do not contain complex complications (eg, tourbillon)) are unrealistically priced. To pay $35k (MSRP) for a stainless steel Patek 5711 when a $350-$500 ETA-powered rep looks, feels & functions nearly the same, is nuts. Obviously, if you want your watch made of precious metals & do not wish to risk a simple scratch revealing your beer budget, the gen makes more sense. Likewise, if you appreciate the more technological aspects of the LUXURY watchmakers' art & have the financial wherewithal to fund that appreciation, select gens are generally good investments.

Finally, contrary to the media's storyline, the reason so many mid-level watch brands appear to be jumping into the deep (high-end) end of the watch market pool is because so many more people are able to afford the price of admission. Capitalism DOES create wealth out of nothing. Capitalism is NOT a fixed pie with a limited set of slices, so that when you take a bite it comes out of my mouth. The fact is that if a homeless guy creates a good or service that a million people would rather have than the $300 in their pocket, that homeless guy will become a 1-percenter as a result. & companies like Rolex figured this out 100 years ago. That is why, during the 1970s, Rolex posted billboards all over China (eg, Tiananmen Square) in an effort to prime-the-pump for what they gambled would be their next market if/when China relaxed their decades long prohibition of personal property and ownership, especially of LUXURY goods. I recall, at the time, Rolex took alot of heat over the billboards with many in the media calling them foolish since 'everyone knew that few Chinese were permitted to purchase a Rolex'. But, as usual, Rolex predicted the future correctly & they were the first brand most Chinese thought of purchasing once China became a capitalist (albeit still authoritarian) nation.

So, to paraphrase Twain, predictions of Rolex collapse are premature.

15 hours ago, GShocked said:

Can't ever afford a Patek either

 

Perhaps, not today. But if you set your sights on 1 of Patek's lower-end models, or a model in less demand & save for awhile with the goal of owning that Patek, you probably will.

[GShocked]

I respect the craftmanship that goes into making a Patek, or any high end brand. Capitalism does create opportunity for some, and then keeps others at the bottom. It's just life, I don't expect Rolex to collapse anytime soon. At some point though most people aren't going to be able to drop 20-30k on a submariner or datejust. It's just a matter of time. I don't even deny that if someone had true charity and had so much money that offered me a Patek or a Rolex...I'd accept it for free, I'd eventually sell it later on as it's not a necessary item for me to have. Is anyone ever going to do something like that? No. 

 

I'm hoping to see more mid-range divers out there, even if they can't be automatics that are good quality and get the job done for real scuba divers, not just desk dives!  I don't expect prices to drop unless a recession happens, and that looks possible in the near future. I'd rather people have jobs and money coming in vs a recession. 

7 minutes ago, freddy333 said:

Perhaps, not today. But if you set your sights on 1 of Patek's lower-end models, or a model in less demand & save for awhile with the goal of owning that Patek, you probably will.

 

I appreciate your optimism/hope but that's very doubtful. 

[freddy333]

7 minutes ago, GShocked said:

I'm hoping to see more mid-range divers out there, even if they can't be automatics

 

You are just not looking hard enough. This 1, which has become my daily beater, can still be had for less than $400. & there are alot of very cool watches out there that are within reach of virtually anyone with a pulse - & a full-time job.

[kidcreole]

I think Omega and Tudor represent value for money compared to the market. I just got a 1971 Roamer Stinger with valjoux 72 for US$1100! There are still bargains to be had. Problem is the prices today will likely seem cheap in the future. Either get on it or you'll be crying in your cornflakes that you were too scared to jump.

[tomhorn]

49 minutes ago, kidcreole said:

I just got a 1971 Roamer Stinger with valjoux 72 for US$1100! 

 

That was a steal.

[Nanuq]

Here are a couple that are guaranteed to go to stupid prices within a few years.  The interest is starting to stir and they're cheap now.

 

Bulova Devil Diver.    https://www.ebay.com/itm/324762772250

 

Zodiac Sea Wolf.  https://www.ebay.com/itm/165135566052

 

 

 

 

[kidcreole]

 
That was a steal.

Yep it was off eBay too. The guy didn’t list the movement or have proper pics so it slid through to me. It has a slight beat error and low amplitude but still respectable +15 secs/day.

[GShocked]

Very nice, I have no need for a chronograph personally...but I've been a fan of the style for years. 

[Nanuq]

Dang what a beauty.  Remember a few years ago someone was going to tear apart his Stingray and make a DW Daytona, and we had conniption fits?

 

 

[automatico]

"I personally said forget it, and turned my interests toward used/vintage pieces."

 

Me too...over 20 years ago.  Last new rolex I bought from an AD was in May 1998,  Bought a few new/like new presentation AKs at bargain prices from the owners since then but that's it for modern rolex.

 

"Here are a couple that are guaranteed to go to stupid prices within a few years.  The interest is starting to stir and they're cheap now."

Bulova Devil Diver.    

Zodiac Sea Wolf.

 

I sold way too many of my 'valuable' watches too soon but that's life.  I did save a lot of 1960s through 1970s watches though and probably still have 8 or 10 assorted Bulova '666' divers that I put away because when I bought them they were going for $40 to $100 and no one wanted them.  Have a few Caravelle '333' and '666' too...the Cv '666' are automatics and the '333' are hand crankers.  All are mechanical except one '666' Accutron in very good condition that I got for $0 but it needs a movement.  

 

Still have 12 or 14 Bulova 333ft half devil dress Oceanographers (no rotating bezel), all tutone except two.  They all have solid 10K gold bezels (even the SS models) and are slow set with reliable 11BLACD movements and they 'look like a rolex'.  They are going for $300 or so now.  They will not make me rich but they will buy a Big Mac or two.

 

I have owned a LOT of Bulova watches, more than anything else...there are 365 entries in the 'B' section of my inventory, almost all Bulovas with a few Benrus, Breitling, and one Blancpain (one was enough!) etc.  Many Bulovas are gone but quite a few remain.

'blanc pain' = white bread in English.  Ha!

 

Kept about a half dozen Zodiac Sea Wolf watches, both date and no date models including one with the disco dial...orange/black with white acrylic insert.  Got them real cheap and some were free.  They have A. Schild movements and parts are easy to get but the snap on case backs are a royal pain to get off and on.

 This one is $3595 on eBay!  OBO.  Mine was free.

 

 

Before the wu-flu hit, a group of watch traders met every weekend for 30+ years and I would guess a few thousand watches passed over the trading table in that time and I snagged my share, some I'll never forget...bought a real nice gold cap rolex 1550 oys perp date in 1996 for $150...THO no bracelet.  I still have the OPD...sold it in 2002 and the guy traded it in on something else.  THO = time head only.

 

The guy I bought it from walked up to the trading table and asked if anyone knew anything about rolex watches. 

I said:  "I can tell if it is running or not."

He handed it to me and asked if I wanted to buy it. 

I said:  "I'll give you $100 for it."  I was kidding.

He said:  "$200,"

I said "$150."

He said:  "Hand it over."

 

Bought a like new manual wind 18KYG Patek 'Golden Ellipse' on the original woven mesh bracelet for scrap in the summer of 1998 and no one wanted to buy it so I traded it even for a nib rolex 16233 with a factory diamond dial a few months later.   There were deals like this every week.

 

Not now though.  We stopped showing up not long after Christmas 2019...thanks to the wu-flu.   

Still see a few traders now and then.  I bought an Illinois 21 jewel Abe Lincoln 16 size RR grade lever set pocket watch (made 1918) with a pristine dial/hands for $10 a while back in an undesirable oversize 'swing out' case from one of them.  A PW mechanic friend c/o/MS the mvt and put it in a nos Star Watch Case Co. nickel case...no charge.  It is running on my work bench now and loses 4 or 5 sec/day...the RR mech PW standard is +/- 15 sec per day.  Not too shabby for $10.

 

BTW...that Roamer chrono is super nice!

I have a Seth Thomas 'Stingray' dive watch made by Roamer in my 'collection' somewhere, the case shape is the same as the chrono.  I got it in 1993, sold it in 1999, and got it back in 2009.  It still has the original signed bracelet, crystal etc.

 

Some ST Stingray pictures...

Seth Thomas Stingray Case Restoration – TM Watch (tmwatchco.com)

 

 

 

[kidcreole]

On 10/23/2021 at 11:52 PM, automatico said:

BTW...that Roamer chrono is super nice!

I have a Seth Thomas 'Stingray' dive watch made by Roamer in my 'collection' somewhere, the case shape is the same as the chrono.  I got it in 1993, sold it in 1999, and got it back in 2009.  It still has the original signed bracelet, crystal etc.

 

Some ST Stingray pictures...

Seth Thomas Stingray Case Restoration – TM Watch (tmwatchco.com)

 

 

 

 

I'm still smarting from picking up the roamer for cheap. An 18KYG Patek for that price is a robbery. Good on you 🙂

 

Talking about finding gems I read this article today. Dude finds an original 3646 at a bazaar. Rolex-Panerai 3646 ‘Error Proof’ From A Bosnian Bazaar – Vintage Panerai and other iconic timepieces under the loupe at Perezcope

 

That ST stingray is sublime. 70s style, the use of color is really something. I think my collection needs more of these gems.

[Cobar]

This is only my personal opinion, but I would never buy another vintage piece, especially Rolex knowing that so many parts of changed and so many watches are just put together. I would much rather pay for a high-end vintage rep then pay an exorbitant amount for a vintage piece that ends up turning out to be a Franken.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Cobar]

This is only my personal opinion, but I would never buy another vintage piece, especially Rolex knowing that so many parts of changed and so many watches are just put together. I would much rather pay for a high-end vintage rep then pay an exorbitant amount for a vintage piece that ends up turning out to be a Franken.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is only my personal opinion, but I would never buy another vintage piece, especially Rolex knowing that so many parts of changed and so many watches are just put together. I would much rather pay for a high-end vintage rep then pay an exorbitant amount for a vintage piece that ends up turning out to be a Franken.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[freddy333]

21 hours ago, Cobar said:

This is only my personal opinion, but I would never buy another vintage piece, especially Rolex knowing that so many parts of changed and so many watches are just put together. I would much rather pay for a high-end vintage rep then pay an exorbitant amount for a vintage piece that ends up turning out to be a Franken.

 

Buy only from a long-standing, reputable (ie., they guarantee the authenticity of their wares) dealer, who specializes in vintage Rolex.

[Hollywood Quiet]

There is no problem buying genuine vintage if either

 

A: You know what you are doing, 

or

B: You buy it from a reputable source who knows what they are doing.

 

The value of genuine vintage rolex just keeps going up.  They are more and more highly sought after each day-hence the rising prices.

Lots of people looking for places to invest are more and more each day turning to vintage rolex.

There are plenty of people who know enough, or who can learn, to tell what is correct or not.

 

I don't think there are any reps today that can withstand high quality pics posted of all angles and of the movement on Rolex forums and not be immediately called out- evidence that plenty of people know rep from gen. It is not a problem for the detail oriented educated buyer.

 

 

[Nanuq]

I was called out on the Vintage Rolex Forum by an "expert" who claimed this one has the wrong hands and an aftermarket bezel.  The only part not original from the factory is the crystal, and it is a factory Superdome tropic-39.  Take "expert" opinions with a grain of salt.  I trust the "experts" here more than I do the ones on VRF or TZ.

 

[Hollywood Quiet]

Yes of course there are many more fake "wannabe experts" than real experts.  And I have found through experience that they have very thin skin and reallllly do not like it when their false posts about knowing what is what is called out.  

My point was a watch made with mostly rep parts will not be able to pass as gen and I stand by that.

 

Is that a real gen double red?  If so, WoW!  If I could pick only one vintage rolex it would be the double red.

[automatico]

There is no problem buying genuine vintage if either:

A: You know what you are doing, 

B: You buy it from a reputable source who knows what they are doing.

 

A...Extremely hard to master.

B...Very few and very, very far between.  They might have been honest when vintage rolex watches were 10% of today's prices but maybe/probably not now.  

These guys can make an extra $10K or $20K on just one or two watches if they do not mind being  just a little bit crooked.  

Imho.

 

"There are plenty of people who know enough, or who can learn, to tell what is correct or not."

 

Maybe yes, maybe no.

I stared trading rolex watches in the early 1970s, have bought and sold a few hundred and there is no doubt many of the better Frankensteins being put together now will easily fool me.  My guess is they will fool just about anyone and they are out there.  

Take my average F-stein '1680' for instance...put the genuine movement, dial, hands, and crown in a professionally detailed/aged 'super replica' 1680 case with a proper era genuine bez insert, bracelet etc and it will sell as 'genuine' anywhere.  I have not been to a watch show in a few years but there were a couple 'Supersteins' at the last show I attended and the 'dealer' told me what they were only because I have know him for years. The next guy will never know. 

The only hang-up would be an 'official rlx repair shop' might snag it for mismatched numbers on down the line...if they agreed to work on it.  They are turning down many (most?) 50 year old watches.

 

A friend of mine was wearing an old tudor sub that he paid a high price for at the same show and when he priced it to the dealer, the dealer guy told him it had a fake case.  He asked the guy how he knew and he said "Because I sold it to the guy you bought it from."   

Small world.

 

Otoh, 'a case' in point'...

I have a nos no hack 1570, nos 1016 trit dial/hands, nos 25-22 crystal, nos case tube/crown etc...everything except the case.  

I also have the original chronometer certificate for the movement along with the case number it came in. 

But it is more or less impossible to find a new or like new genuine case. 

So...Case Closed. 

 

 

"Take "expert" opinions with a grain of salt."

 

Agree 100%   

(In my 'expert' opinion)

 

[Hollywood Quiet]

I live close to HQ Milton.  I'm very confident their watches are what they present them to be.  They have quite a lot of loyal customers *I'm told* who trust them.  Trust but verify.  If they were to pass of 1 or 2 frankens, and get caught, their income stream in the near future would suffer greatly, and they know that.

 

At a show it is buyer beware.  It often takes some time to compare magnified hi res pics to known gen sources to find the best fakes, but it can be done.  I'm still waiting for dial reprinters to get the alignments just right.  I haven't seen that happen yet.

 

But yes, of course, some people will try to cheat you if they can.

I was sold 2 different 1680s, one white and one red, they were gen except for the rep hands.  After being politely pointed out to the seller, he supplied me with gen hands he just happened to have in stock.

 

I don't find it that difficult to post pics of claimed gen vintage rolex on rolex forums and see what they come back with.  They may call out a gen as fake, but I've never seen a rep pass muster if it had a rep dial.

Superfrankens with gen everything except rep case would be the hardest to catch, yes.   But this assumes access and the $$$$ required for a gen dial.

 

But honestly, who really has access to gen rare vintage rolex dials?  You are going to have to pay tens of thousands for just the dial. 

 

[GShocked]

1 hour ago, Nanuq said:

I was called out on the Vintage Rolex Forum by an "expert" who claimed this one has the wrong hands and an aftermarket bezel.  The only part not original from the factory is the crystal, and it is a factory Superdome tropic-39.  Take "expert" opinions with a grain of salt.  I trust the "experts" here more than I do the ones on VRF or TZ.

 

 

 

Enjoy it. They're just jealous probably. 

[automatico]

"I've never seen a rep pass muster if it had a rep dial."

 

Yep.

'Refinished' dials are the tell on high grade F-steins.

...and my (much) lower class ETA-reps.  

[Hollywood Quiet]

I'm a BIG fan of the ETAs, especially the top grade.  I've got 2 that run +/-0 in 3 of 4 positions and no worse than -4 in the worst position.  Certainly within the +2/-2 best spec of the best Rolex today.

I've got a few gen rolex, and a few higher end reps with gen movements.  In my experience the gen 1570 is good but they are not as precise as the top grade ETA 2824 with the incabloc and glucydur

 

But I would really like to see some more perfect dials.  I suspect these will improve soon.