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Big trouble in GZ markets. Huge crack down.


trailboss

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Since Luthier hasn't posted this here yet I hope he doesn't mind me doing so. About 18 hours ago he heard from "mary" a dealer in GZ who sent him the following which he posted on RWG1.1

From last week there's 20 policemen patrolling between dealers counters all day long every day. No more replicas there. All dealers offices from 2nd floor were ordered to leave premises. They're gone.

Sad news...

That ain't the usual walk thru with prior notice folks. This is serious especialy for the smaller dealers. Aperantly the biz is currently spread over various unspecified locations in GZ. None of the folk I know there have replied to my email regarding the crackdown. Normaly I would get a responce in a matter of hours.

This may be bad, real bad.

Col.

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Time4direct just replied to my thread at RWI. It don't look good folks.

This has been going on for a week or 2 . Also Hong Kong is a problem for shipments now I know 1 Bangkok dealer that had $300K worth seized at weekend in Hong Kong.

I think it's serious to be honest. They are certainly making their presents felt far more than normal . I would imagine loads will fall by the wayside due to this most small dealers will have extreme difficulty in obtaining stock on a daily basis only dealers with stock will survive if it is a permanent thing. I also heard they are putting about a 1000 cutoms officers in the main sorting office but thats only hearsay and not confirmed

Oh crap!

Col.

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I suppose however it could be just as likely that the factories are making this up in attempt to jump start sales. IF you think your rep feed is coming to an end, you might place a big order.

LOL, if I could afford to, I would too :)

No mate, it ain't BS. It came from a very trusted source. If she says that's what's happening, that's what's happening. The smaller dealers are going to dissappear overnight and from what T4D says the large ones are going to have trouble geting stuff out of the country for a while at least. This could be bad, real bad.

Col.

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man, this sux. it just had to happen when i was about to order a new rep :shock:

maybe the cops just want to get paid a little extra because they realized how big and profitable the rep market is and the fact that it is not affected by the global economic slowdown as much as GEN market.

in any case these are not good news :disgust::cry:

@ andreww: thats just Beijing though. All my watches came from a place further NW. Also it doesn't mention anything about watches - only "Burberry, Gucci, Chanel, Louis Vuitton and Prada."

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interesting reading here. I guess the gist of it lies on the lawyers new right to go after the markets that house the replica sellers. The main complainants are Burberry, Chanel, Gucci, Louis Vuitton and Prada. No mention of watches in any of my readings, just seems like we've been caught in the crossfire.

http://www.wipo.int/enforcement/en/pdf/global_congress.pdf

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I don't think this will have any significant impact on our "niche" of the hobby... remember there are millions of reps in China and our high quality models are a very rare and exclusive (and hopefully elusive) breed.

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Just spoke to my dealer. It does affect the dealers' a little bit, but only in terms of speed of delivery. It will take more time to get the watches shipped out. Probably because the factory dealers are not spread across different places.

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Wow, looks like the value of my rep collection just went up overnight, thanks China :p . Seriously though, this may change the hobby for a while, but does anyone really beleive that the rep trade will die? IMO no, there is still too much money to be made here, especially overseas where the average worker makes much much less than in other countries, and the opportunity to make more in the rep trade is a big draw. Folks over there working in the factories probably don't know or care that what they are working on is real or replica, its work, and they do it to earn a living. I think that the real crack downs should be in the legit products we get from China. Everything from Melamine in dog food to lead paint on toys to anti-freeze in toothpaste, to me, is much more serious than rep bags, clothes and watches. Still, the gen manufacturers will fight back, and as well they probably should (its their trademarks being infringed upon), and China will do some house cleaning, but it will come back.

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Wonder if the Genuine manufacturers are cracking down on reps in light of poor sales due to the economic situation?

Yes, as has been predicted.

On the other hand, this may just be part of the usual cycle that has been repeating itself over & over again for the past 25 years. Every few years, the gens make a stink & the police make some highly publicized raids (with lots of pics of reps being destroyed or confiscated (into the pockets of the police & government officials)) & everyone predicts gloom & doom. Then, quietly, things return to absolute normal & life (in the rep world) marches on. But with the economy affecting the gens' bottom lines, this really should not come as a surprise to many here.

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Ya it's bad out there, worst since a long long time, I personally (but could be wrong) it's coz of the new Obama in office policies. It doesn't really effect me, coz we don't need to buy from the local markets or the smaller dealers where they having the crackdown.... yes everybody gone in hiding and it does slow the shipping aspect but if you got the direct contacts (which we do) with most factories / suppliers it's not much of a problem... as those were always underground anyways... besides copy/china are one.

They can't do one without the other, so they show some "show" and crack down on the smaller dealers... and they get fined, already 20-30 that I know of are fined considerable ammounts 2000-4000 usd (which is ALOT in china), rounded up and no more reps in the markets "for now". However the factories, such as the "noobfactory" etc pay the police. My supplier in bkk is really close with them, and she tells me they pay them off BIG TIME... not always in money...

As long as copy makes money and gives job to chinese ppl it will always be, but that is just my 2 cents... it's hard to get rid of, and why?!? for the sake of western ppl/countries... (deep inside they don't really care, just pretence/politics) but I think alot of pressure is put on China in regards with USA at the moment... so they must make a show...

I'm staying in Thailand btw, so they can't get to us :p my co-workers are local and we usually never get from the markets anyways, always get our suppliers "behind closed doors" so to speak...

Edited by EuroTimez
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This doesn't appear to affect us, just the street vendors. I'm sure that you can still get your drop shipped and wholesale goods from the manufacturer through the internet. Of course it would affect the small internet vendors that go to the market in Guangzhou to find watches. This will all blow over in a month or so, just watch. They aren't even shutting down factories. I don't think that now is the time for this to happen. China has a history of wanting to keep foreign influence out of their country and it even continues to present day. Look at what happened recently in South China seas with the US Navy and try to tell me that China is trying to buddy up with the West already.

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Hopefully after the Asian games are over things will go back to normal... but in the meantime many dealers are getting popped and the GZ watch market is an easy target for PR reasons. We're waiting to hear back from Angus to get the lowdown. T4D and hont have posted over at RWI explaining quite a bit.

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Hi Chris

Happy to see you back! For good? I sure hope so....

Yours kindly

Valerian

I emailed Chris and asked if he had any info on what was going on. He was kind enough to reply here for the benifit of all.

AS for "will this kill the rep trade?" No, of cause not. But it has just undergone the first stage of a major change and may never be quite the same again.

Col.

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The last time this happened was in 2006 .. it lasted a little over a month,.. shippment's were delayed .. some for up to a month.. forwarders had to move merchandise all over the place and wait for an opening to get them out..

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Ok I have spoken to my supplier and although they are based in Gaungzhou they are largely unaffected by this, mostly they are hitting the markets and leaving the factories alone.

Where it will affect us is that we can't ship large orders at one time.

Ken

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