RobbieG

...and the OP is bummed if he didn't get long as C gets a 38% pop today. Also FYI, I heard from the inside that Washington has no itention of letting any of the top 25 financials fail going forward, no matter what it takes. And don't ask me what that cryptic little piece means as I have no idea either. Just a guy I know in government heard some musings from some back room conversations and told me that today...

Well said Demsey. What you speak of is very true. RWG is a special place for knowledge. There has not been one day that I haven't learned something here from the first day I wandered over from TRC in our alpha year as mostly a lurker and occasional pictorial poster. And that incredible wealth of knowledge is what keeps me coming back. You may have noticed, but I am really into the process of discovery. It fills my business and personal life as my number one pursuit. I don't know what I'm looking for and as such I hope I never find it. The journey is the destination as they say...

Don't get me wrong as I certainly appreciate any nice watch, but when I got a sense of typical costs for these high end reps I can't help asking the age old question of how much is too much? That said, I am certainly not a frugal watch buyer by any stretch. Quite the opposite and have spent upwards of $25K on a watch just from impulse. Actually, I did a string of those approaching that price point just last year but finally got it under control. Junkie. Anyway, I digress... I'm not saying I'm proud of that but what I'm getting at is before spending many thousands on a reconstruction of a vintage complication I can't be alone in that I would probably just buy a lesser gen instead. And I'm a pretty good test case in many ways being someone who has purchased and modded a pretty fair amount of reps and well into the six figure range on gens as well. If I have more than about a couple thousand burning a hole in my pocket I'm usually not thinking mods or even franken. I'm thinking let me find another few and buy a real gen. When Trailboss showed me that link of the Patek Perpetual Calendar Chronograph from the other thread for $15K I couldn't help but wonder how many buyers there are at those price points. Maybe the OP can clue us in there too. I realize that cost is a bargain considering a PP 3970 in good shape will fetch a hundred grand or so. But if it were my money I would simply buy a new $20k watch at a discount instead. Then again, I have never bought a used gen or rep in my life either. But of course we aren't talking about say Freddy or other of our esteemed members doing their own franken Rolex projects and spending upwards of a grand to recreate something vintage. In short, there is a big difference between a grand and ten or fifteen grand. At some point it has to stop making sense and I'm just wondering where that point might be for the rest of you. I guess the other part that sort of nags at me is the fact that they are complications. It just seems so risky. Especially when even robust vintage movements have been modified as in the case of the Patek calendar to the point of a new lever system being created and new bridges made. I don't know, something just nags at me that is beyond the money...

Compared to the gen I'm sure it does, but can you think of anything specific? I hadn't heard that before to be honest...

Interesting piece although it does nothing for me design wise. What are the specifics regarding the complication on this one? A companion to the car? Size of the case?

OK, I came back to see if there was a response and realized that I have more questions. What can I say, I have a curious nature. The OP stated that the movement is a rep of a PP 27-70 constructed from a V23. My questions are: 1. How many of these movements are sourced by this maker. The OP states he has three of them. Are they all identical? 2. Does the movement also include a working calendar complications module? 3. Attached is an image of a V23. I draw your attention to the column wheel start/stop/reset lever system partially highlighted in yellow. Are you saying that the maker reconstructed and built the lever system to make the V23 look exactly like the 2310? You realize that would mean fabrication and reconstruction beyong just decoration? Also, are you saying that the maker actually built two new bridges at the red "x" points as well, since the V23 doesn't have them as stock? Also, the "U" wheel bridge would have to be re-made as well. And of course the cap for the column wheel. Seems like a tall order so if you don't know the answer off hand, maybe you could ask your source and relay that info to us? 4. If you don't mind me asking, how much do these reps cost and again, where can we source them? V23: 2310 (PP 27-70): Thanks in advance for clarifying these items - although it makes no sense to me that or how any amateur watchmaker could accomplish such a feat and not be doing it with so many movements so as to constitute a manufacture. You would think we would be seeing a lot of these movements if this were all true.

I doubt I would make it out of a Socal GTG alive, Toad. I would have to go strapped and with a rent-a-thug for the day.

Yeah, I saw the same member has the burgundy dial MMD. My twin. Which member has both the Dual Time and the MMD. I have never seen pics of those before or in wristchecks. Home on another forum I assume?

Yeah, I was going to respond with that myself FT. @Demsey (and anyone else who is interested) - you have to understand that fundamental trading is not all there is and people have a tendency to think that as sometimes it seems like it is because it is all we hear about. The Buffets of the world represent that side of the equation only. To that end, one also needs to realize that markets do not exist in vacuums. It is fairly common for people to have the mindset that when a market is up it means that everyone is up, and when markets are down everyone is down. The fact is though that for every person who's portfolio is off 50%, there is someone on the other side of that trade that made the 50%. Half are making money so to speak! The money doesn't simply evaporate. If I lose, somebody wins and vice versa. How else could my firm explain triple digit returns in the big, bad 2008. I didn't get lucky. There were very specific mechancial reasons to explain each and every trade. But that isn't to say I predicted the outcomes either. These are concepts which are impossible to really cover in a thread like this though. But just know if you lose somebody else has your money... But another component I would like to touch on is the concept of size as it roughly relates to things as well. If you are working with tens of billions of dollars or more, size limits the things you can do in trading simply because of the sheer task it can be to "work" large orders as we call it. When WB decides to make choices and drasticaly change a position he is in, he (and many others of that size) can get murdered by increased volatility. Profits can evaporate rather quickly. So not only is he in a loss, he also is certain to lose alot more by the time he unwinds his position. People ask me all the time - "If your system is so great, why doesn't Buffet buy it from you for billions?". Of course my institutional clients know the answer to that and I'm talking about civilians. The answer is that due to his size, Buffet simply can't trade like I do. He couldn't keep up. So yeah, he could use me, but not with more than about 20 million dollars for most of my core strategies and of course that would be a complete waste of his time at his equity level. So in closing, yes - times are very tough for investment type trading strategies designed around fundamentals. But on the contrary, realtively small traders ($20 Million or less) in equity like me have been profiting all the way down. The reason is because we can trade (and have filled all in and all) out relatively small orders (large for for us mortals though) all at once and thus take advantage of all this interesting intraday motion. These are record times for us and we are not few. You just might love being a fund manager right now, depending on what your fund did. I sure do. And not because the markets are down. They are just moving and moving alot. If they were going in the other direction (and if the world doesn't end first they will) and moving alot, we would be enjoying that too. Futures traders like motion. Ranges are the kiss of death for us. We don't lose much, nor do we take many trades, but we can't make much money either in ranges. But if it is moving we can kill it. By contrast, those markets that stay within ranges with nice little travels to plateau "sweet spots" are great for options traders who sell premium and hit home runs with those spots when they get hit. And finally fundamental traders are the most famous as they get the either the glory for looking like they pulled the rabbit out of the hat and predicted the future, or the agony of defeat when they get it wrong. Even Buffet can't win in a market like this dead set against fundamentals. But is is simpler than you think. But the only markets that work well for fundamental traders are long steady bull markets without much volatility. Not much to it really (as long as the trend cooperates) and the bias has been set at about 12% a year to front run them since 1926. Get a few things right and "presto". Fundamental trading is not the only arrow in the quiver and isn't really trading at all most times. Just institutional investing really. The funny thing is when times are ripe for the fundamental crowd, guys like me are sitting there going "well yeah..." a chimp could make money in a bull run with wide stops (that never get hit - lol) and end to end trend days followed by tight consolidation with no uncertainty or downward pressure. Yet they still get the glory because it looks like they called the turn. Now we are hearing from Mother instead who is giving the smack down to the Buffets of the world. But many don't realize that even Buffet has what we call a core strategy and that every core strategy fails sometimes in some markets. It only looks like he is a genius for always getting it right. He is a genius. But it is because of how he trades the bull runs, not how he calls the pitches. It only looks like he is. When you buy companies instead of just trading them things are different. In the baseball analogy, one would say it is easier to call the pitch when you buy the team before the game starts... .02

Oh no D, I knew what you meant. And I agree 110%. You meant what I did which was to say if these are available why set us up for a fall and tell us how these are superior to what we all have. Just questioning the point of him posting of he wasn't going to tell all. It comes off a little like "look what I have and you all don't" to me. I mean he has to know that these have never been offered for sale as his with any of our dealers. So I was just mirroring what you said (and what Shundi said) again to him. And I say it again. Reveal the source of whover sells Patek-esq V23's OP. I can't imagine they are in abundance, but think of the possibilities. I know d and Shundi and many others here would love to have a great movement as a base for some franken Patek's. Even the standard 5070 rep wouldn't be too bad with that movement as I said...

Back from the other room. ...And then he disappears without heeding dluddy's plea. We may never know how to get the super "V23 made to look like a 2310 solid gold PP reps" that are better than anything else mere mortals have access to. Come back, come back, and tell us at least how we can get V23's for the price of a rep. Shundo and I have projects we could use them in... PS: Just so you know, I'm not f'ing with you. Well kind of, but not really...I will buy a current 5070 rep tomorrow and transplant this movement if it will fit. I won't be needing the 18k case either. I concede that your V23 franken looks better than any handwoung column wheel movement we have seen in any past reps. You are our lifeline to revive the dress chrono arm of the brand here on the boards. We wait with baited breath...

The point? The point is it is a bastard, one off watch then that has no real basis of discussion since no dealer or source any of us pikers here on the board know of or have access to. I guess your intent then was to illustrate that one off, unavailable watches like the ones you have are better than the PAM's everyone else has? Or do you intend to reveal your source and have him apply to be a trusted dealer then? Surely this all must have a point that we all can benefit from as a group? I'll be in the other room...

Yeah, no doubt. The sinks too. Chatons are absent, etc. Certainly a 2310 for sure though. The base finish was never all that great or offered as such as Lemania always knew its customers would be doing thier own and most complete finishing. I suppose it could be a one off where someone scored a 2310 out of something and rep stamped the PP stuff on it. But the one givaway that suggests it may be less than genuine might be the Hallmark of Geneva seal. Certainly not meeting some of the technical requirements, hence the suspect seal as I mentioned. The 12 Geneva Hallmark technical requirements: 1. The good workmanship of all the parts of the caliber, including those of the additional mechanisms, must be in conformity with the requirements of the office of voluntary inspection of the watches from Geneva. Steel parts must have polished angles and their visible surfaces smoothed down. Screw heads must be polished, with their slots and rims chamfered. Jewelling 2. The entire movement must jeweled with ruby jewels set in polished holes, including the going train and escape wheel. On the bridge side, the jewels must be olive-drilled with polished sinks. The jewel of the center wheel on the main plate is not required. Regulating Systems 3. The hairspring should be pinned in a grooved plate with a stud having a rounded collar and cap. Mobile studs are permitted. 4. Split or fitted indexes are allowed with a holding system except in extra-thin calibers where the holding system is not required. 5. Regulating systems with balance with radius of variable gyration are allowed insofar as they meet the conditions of article 3, subparagraph 1. Wheels 6. The wheels of the going train must be chamfered above and below and have a polished sink. In wheels 0.15 mm thick or less, a single chamfer is allowed on the bridge side. 7. In wheel assemblies, the pivot shanks and the faces of the pinion leaves must be polished. Escapement 8. The escape wheel has to be light, not more than 0.16 mm thick in large calibers and 0.13 mm in calibers under 18 mm, and its locking-faces must be polished. 9. The angle traversed by the pallet lever is to be limited by fixed banking walls and not pins or studs. Shock Protection 10. Shock protected movements are accepted. Winding Mechanism 11. The ratchet and crown wheels must be finished in accordance with registered patterns. Springs 12. Wire springs are not allowed.

The movement is certainly not a rep movement. All Patek handwound chronographs have used the Lemania 2310 as a base ebauche since 1986. It is generally regarded as the finest handwound chronograph movement in the world. The exact bridge shapes and decoration choices have changed over the years, but the movement is unmistakable. That said, if your so called rep is in fact a rep that has transplanted a 2310, I suppose I can buy that. Hard to understand how that would work money wise though. Currently, a Patek 5070 Chrono with this movement sells for 20+ over its list price in the mid forty thousand dollar range duw to supply limitations. That someone would just find a genuine Patek 27-70 (Lemania 2310) laying around and then stick it in a replica is VERY hard to believe. Again, the movement shown above is not a replica 2310. Moreover, there is no possible way to source the ebauches - not even one of them. They are not sold to anyone except front line supply to a handful of high end compaies. Even that is potentially changing due to Breguet/Swatch. And due to economies of scale, there is simply no way that any factory could possibly make tooling up and building a gen quality 2310 work money-wise. Any Patek rep of an annual calendar as you are showing in the real world will have a Seagull ST19 Venus 175 clone and will not have any working complications in the movement. I also find it interesting that the caseback pic and the other are from two different photo sessions. In other words, someone may be trying to scam you by showing you pictures not of the actual supposed replica watch. Here is another pic of a Patek 27-70, which is based on a Lemania 2310 ebauche:

Ahem...don't you mean blind children?

It is a shame too as the watches are really nice in the flesh. Personally, I don't care for the design or look myself but I know a world class watch when I handle one and these are for sure. I don't know if you have had a chance to spend some time with one yet. The cases are very well constructed and finished. I spent some time at 10x with them and was very impressed. My previous experiences with the brand were not that way at all - just the opposite. Prior to that I felt that everthing I touched from them was junk. It does stand to reason though that a movement that small would be fragile. His problems were supposedly broken part related and I don't know the details. But one can guess. Everything needs to be built very lightly and yet they still chose to beat it at 28.8k. It would take a bigger balance, but they might have considered building an 18k or at the very least a 21.6 caliber to keep the torque and friction down. In fact, it might even look cooler and remain just as symetrical. A larger screw balance (which are always cooler looking anyway) and a bigger mainspring barrel at the other end (then maybe up the case size as well). But of course, they were going for the most even, vertical look possible, hence the small balance and high beat rate. Too bad really.

Given all the gold especially, here is a fun exercise: Add up all the retail prices of your collection as gens and see what it comes to. It will knock you out of your chair no doubt. Not just the number, but knowing how many people there are in the world who have those kind of gen collections (and beyond...)and the associated worth of them. Staggering. Nice collection man.

Yes, that watch is available now but is not a special edition Joey. No Blue Seal there - just a Maxi Marine Diver Chronograph (MMDC as I call it) in rose gold. Great gen and a great rep. Grab one!

Value is relative. We don't spend much time thinking about trading value as it relates to price. Something is not cheap if it is under a dollar. Was Bear cheap at $8? How about $3? $2 then? How about zero? And it dropped like a stone from $160 a brick. What is Citi's 52 week high? $27? Is under a dollar still a good value when you consider the path and relative prices of Bear? Nobody predicted what happened to Bear to play out exactly as it did. And the people that bought for value down there got killed. I was shorting the 500 (of which most banks and IB's are a component of) the whole time - and continue to now as Citi crosses into the so called "value" range. That said, we never trade individual equities but indexes only via futures and options, which I recommend individual traders do as well in the form of index funds or ETF's. We also don't trade fundamentally either. We react to what is happening as opposed to what we think is going to happen. Speculation for me doesn't make any sense. So to that end I can't really offer an opinion about why one would buy or short Citi. All I can say is if I were trading it, I would be buying it if it were going up and shorting it if it were going down, but most importantly doing so without really having any opinion about it at all. My Mother is always right, so I just let her tell me what to do. But I never try and outwit her as she can be pretty mean when she feels slighted. LOL. So in closing I would offer you this: Whatever happens with Citi, one thing is for sure and that is someone is surely going to get killed on one side of the trade or another. In addition, the market itself will equalize pricing across all instruments so efficiently that what one can win by betting on it will be limited by "traffic" jams. We have a saying around here which is that we like to stay out of the fight, wait for the winner to emerge and join his entourage. Hop a ride with the winnner, don't try to be the leader... In the case of this trade, the risk required to make a reasonable return is prohibitive. Why not trade something else not quite so volatile? You want to be able to place a reasonable stop on every trade so it doesn't get hit by noise and you can ride out some swings to make a reasonable profit. You also need to find a good entry point. The only reasonable stop on this trade is really zero and the clear entry is also not apparent. If you like to take flyers this one is for you, but you couldn't put a gun to my head and make me trade it, nor would too many other rules based institutional traders. .02

I don't really get what is so gay about the rainbow.I think it is very masculine in every way. Plus as was mentioned there is always they colorless version. If you want something a little more limp - although at the core an amazing timepiece, might I suggest 42MM of deluxe swishyness by way of the BreGAY Marine Chronograph High Jewlery... ...even more feminine with a stingray strap...

Again, I think you are mistaken as you don't have a choice. He is not doing the Blue Seal you want, he is doing the Blue Surf I mentioned ONLY. You better clarify that and be sure you don't have a language barrier or confusion with the titles as you just said it wrong again. You don't want the Blue Surf, your grail is the Blue Seal. Send him a picture. If the watch I mentioned which is the Blue Surf in fact does get repped as a 1:1 by one of our key factories, I'm sure it will be nice.

Yeah, we had talked about that one a few days ago. But good lookin' out brother Dave. I think it is interesting to say the least. I love the chances Rolf takes and he always gets people talking and drawing attention to the brand. He always does limiteds with the "way out there" stuff so he is never commited fully. Always with accolades to gain and nothing to lose. The guy is a genius - even without Ludwig who gets all the credit. If the price is right I might buy one and put it away as a conversation piece. I couldn't ever see using it though. I would just leave my real phone in the car and bring it in to cocktail parties to blow people's minds. I know I would want to see it if someone else had it. Luxury novelty is fun...

Yeah, they look bad Joey. I guess I should have qualified the thread better as I didn't make it clear enough what I was saying given the responses... I'm aware that these are not from our factories. I'm saying who knows how long the brand has been represented on the other side since it was so easy to find these via a simple search. In other words it is puzzling why our super rep side has been so slow to respond. Then I answered it my own question when I heard crickets chirping by pointing out that UN didn't have a 7750 watch until recently. So I am making a connection between our super reps being overly dependent on 7750 and 2824 designs and watches chosen by our factories usually have to have one of those movements to be considered. So UN is most likely late due to an absence of that criteria except for one recent watch. All the other key brands we have had for years are well represented with those movements. I see the sun coming up. Light dawns on Marble Head...

Yeah, true story. And it has taken forever plus another day for him to get resolutions to the problem. So much so he will never buy anything from the brand again. Not the best idea to give bad service to a collector like him. There are literally stores across the country that are only still in business from his purchases of complications. Anyway, too bad about the GB as the concept is pretty cool. "In Line" train design movements are something to behold. The Nardin Royal Blue Tourbillion is another as is the carosel tourbillion design of The Freak.