RobbieG

...and you ain't seen nothin', till' you're down on the muffin...

You laugh Toad, but I so don't want to miss anything on here I have contemplated rolling in some RWG duties to our assistant. The idea being she can stay up on the new threads when I actually have to do something and work an order or talk to a client. That way I'll know quicker if something is happening. She can wave me off the phone or something if there is RWG business that needs attending to.

No, it was me, not Shundi. I had it in my sig for quite a while.

My woods are like Guam. No birds left cause the brown tree snakes killed them all. Or I ran them all off when they couldn't get a word in edgewise. A buncha little baby dinosaurs anyway so f*ck em' and their little chirps...I saw Jurassic Park...

"China, Taiwan, or my butthole are dangerous places to navigate..." -Phoband (on the difficulty of buying reps at watchmarkets in Asia)

Now there is another tacky additon to horology. I swear, these days companies will do anything to try and differentiate themselves. More and more I'm just thinking of the "better mousetrap" fiasco and wondering if watches aren't the same. I get the watch magazines every month and 90% of the pics I see in them I just think oh God, look at that thing. I don't even want to read about how cool it is because I can't get past looking at it and thinking it doens't even look like a watch to me. LOL. I find myself getting excited if Watchtime is reviewing a Submariner or something just for a break from all the silly stuff. Maybe I'm just getting old. The two watches I posted are about as far our as I'm willing to go. But at least they still have a very familiar feel to them. They look like watches. But a slot machine I have to draw the line at. Absurd is the word that comes to mind for me. To each his own I suppose. I swear when I'm ready for the grave all I'll have left is a Sub or a Datejust. I'll look down and smile at the irony of it and get a laugh just before I croak...

Brother I feel for you but you have to expect that if you don't manage your risk. You also just can't go on thinking that you are going to bet on what any market or instrument will do next. I stay in this game for two reasons and a single credo. The first reason is I never risk more than 1% of equity on any one trade. The second reason is effective capital management and position sizing. And that single credo? I bet with a small edge that gets replicated over time like minting money, but above all, I based decisions on what the market is doing, and never what I think, feel, know, believe, whatever it is going to do next. I repeat the same behaviors over and over again so I can effectively analyze the outcomes. Good trading is essentially like counting cards in blackjack. Trading is gambling and like gambling can be mathmatically controlled so as to manage risk and eliminate any inherent edges against you. Imagine if Vegas allow card counting and single deck shoes. They wouldn't fare well. But I'll tell you this: The counters who make money know that good habits and keeping the count doesn't mean that the dealer won't pull four blackjacks in a row and bust you for that day. Anything can happen in the short run but in the long run the casino doesn't like it. In other words when the deck is favored to you, bet heavier. But make sure those bets account for the black swan even t as we like to call them - which is the dealer beating you even though the cards were in your favor. Simply put if you blow your whole bankroll (read: don't manage risk and capital) you are going to go broke even though you played perfect. If you preserve capital though, get up and leave beaten, you come back tomorrow and bust them. I don't make money every month, but I have never had a losing quarter - EVER. Do I have great strategies? You bet. But so does everybody else. All the pros are betting when they have the nuts, but the ones managing risk and not taking flyers with all the marbles are the ones that stick around. It is funny, my clients think I am a stone genius because the scalp account made 81% last October and finished the year with 157%. But me, I hate it. I mean I like the money in my pocket but I wish it never happened. The reason being that people now use that as a new bar to hit. Our clients are saavy traders so I don't fight it as much as I would with retail customers, but still. You see I know exactly why I made that return and it is pure math. All the strategies adjust for volatilty, so if you have a setup that you trade and a typical bar is 4 ticks long and the trade nets you 16 ticks, it makes x. But now all this volume is in the market and everything gets bigger with increased volatility and that bar is now 4 points long, you net 16 points on that trade. Add it up and divide by equity and presto - a huge return. The strategies did the same as they do in any other month, the bars were just bigger so I look like I'm killing it. Meanwhile, that same strategy might make 18% this whole year if things stay calm for a good deal of it. Motion is another big part of it. If the markets aren't moving we aren't trading for the most part. So I amd one of the few Street guys that will admit the truth which is NONE of us know what is going to happen next. NO idea. But they want people to think they do so they can get fees. They are all full of sh*t though. The Wall Street Lie as I call it. Anyway, I just trade perfect or as close to it as I can, manage my position sizing and risk and whatever Mother gives me I take. Sometimes it is nothing or a loss. But I know I'm going to either have more wins than losses or I'm going to win more in each trade than I lose, but never both at the same time in the same trade in the same strategy. It's math really. And very simple math at that. Averaging for smoothness. Even those two schools together can provide a natural smoothing of returns from non-coorolation. As I said, the hardest part is explaining to retail clients that I can trade perfect and break even, or trade perfect and lose 8% in a month, or I can trade perfect and make 81%. It isn't up to me. But what I do know is EXACTLY how much I'm risking and always making sure if I get the worst of it I can't go broke. So in teh long run all my little edges add up and the market is going to have a tough time beating me, unless the black swan comes and I lose every trade for months in a row which is nearly mathmatically impossible. So your mistake is trying to get ahead too fast Phaedo. If you don't have enough capital to make the money you want - tough as they say. You are going to have to make less until you can raise enough. It took me years to get the respect I do now. So trade one lot and trade it well. Manage your risk and keep good records. If you have strategies that make 20% a year consistently you can raise a billion to trade. I have never had trouble finding money because my stuff makes consistent returns with low drawdowns. In my case I'm not wanting to trade that much and worry about wroking large orders from the floor, hedging complexities, etc. I'm content to just execute everything in Globex and stay smaller. Being nimble is the key and I can make all the money I could ever want with zero stress that way. In a year I won't even be trading any more but just doing only white label software deals with the clients. But even the software is successful because of the risk management algos in it. Just burn it into the brain - risk, risk, risk, risk...It is all that matters. 99% of traders spend all their time on strategies and go broke when they stop working for three days. Meanwhile if you focus on risk you could trade a simple moving average cross on a daily chart and make money hand over fist. It is easy really. If my clients really knew how simplified my strategies were they would think me more of a savant. In unison the whole room would exclaim, "That's it? That's how you pick those trades? You have to be kidding - how novel". It is the capital and risk management man. But that takes some time to really understand how to make it work for you. But when it does it is like magic. Makes almost every strategy work like a charm. .02

@Dennis - You have to embrace obtaining the knowledge my freind. If you are looking for that "instant graitification" I don't think you are going to have a fun time in this hobby. It's the journey, not the destination as they say. We are true watch freaks here and by and large embrace that knowledge gaining process. I realize though that that isn't for everyone and so I agree that maybe the best thing to do is just go find a market and pick up a few until you find one you like. It doesn't seem like you are really looking to collect or get into it in any depth anyway. So let me help you out so you can be on your way and not waste any more time here or get anymore headaches from our guides: Pretty much any PO you get from any dealer will be the same and you get what you pay for. The best version is the so called 'Ultimate" Planet Ocean' (UPO) with the Swiss ETA clone movement in the two hundred dollarish range. It is the 45.5MM version. Anything which costs less won't be as flawless so to speak, but most are equally nice. The differential in cost will come from the movement. The same UPO watch I just mentioned with the cheaper Asian movement will be say a hundred bucks less. So now you know what you need to know. Just pick one of the larger dealers and buy one and you will be pleased. Hope that helps.

And you know I just took another look at the 1921. They could rep it pretty easily with a 6497. They could even cut the bridges to make it look very close to this. And they could either mod the seconds train and move it to 3 just like they did with the seconds at 12 7750. If not, they could just release it with seconds at 9 and it would look fine. Of course they won't as it wouldn't be a fast mover but seeing some "different" pieces like this would be cool. This is an example of a watch that I would never buy for a core collection as it is so obscure. I would have to have money to burn to have it, but if I did I must say I would put it on the list. Anywhere you went it would be a conversation piece with non-WIS for sure - & WIS too of course...

Yeah, I sure am BT. This one is new at SIHH this year so it isn't "all around" just yet. I also saw a wristshot somewhere and it is wild how the dial is always pointing straight up and down at you with your arm at resting angles. The price? A reasonable (or should I say typical for a Big 3 dress piece) $24,900 in RG. WG will be a hair more when it comes out. Both these have solid silver sandblasted dials like the new Patrimony's. When it comes out in platinum it will be stupid money and a limited production I'm sure - with the tell tale little 950 on the dial, which I bet will also be a platinum dial on that version just like the Malte Chrono and Patrimony Contemporaine that they did in PT. Always the little "PT950" stamp in the special editions in that metal. Like this:

Change the watch to a Super Avenger or a Big Bang King, lower the DBS, paint it black and put matte balck powdercoat 24's on it. Then you will have a montage which will appear to a much more youthful market. The next James Bond movie will probably feature a 22 year old Bond next anyway so we may as well be ready.

Welcome to the Soflo crew. Nice to have you on board. We have some cool members and enviable collections down here in this RWG contingent. Sorry wbout the burglary and it blows about having to have and pay for the additional jewelry rider. It can get expensive. I have thinned my collection out and the premiums are down to a few hundred a year for mostly my watches and a few other key pieces, but at one time it seemed a crime to be paying on a collection 5 times or more as large. Info for anyone who thinking about insuring his watches: You want the type of policy where you log on to your companies site and input each watch with description and serial you own - no need for a picture as long as you can prove you bought it. You start with what you paid as a value (not retail as it raises the premium for no reason). Then if it coes up (your cost with AD discount each year, you just go in and change the value. Takes 5 minutes. Anyway thats it. But above all, make sure the policy is the type that covers the watch no matter where it is, including in a hotel room or even on your wrist while traveling (asks of God aside of course). So you can leave home without watches and know you are covered and even leave home with multiple watches as many of us do when traveling without a care in the world. Sure, Iput them in the safe when in a hotel, but it is nice to know they are covered no matter what. You pay a little extra for this kind of replacement cost but it is worth it. Figure roughly 1%+ of the replacement cost of the collection per year for premiums.

Yeah Nikki, what happened? Accident or something? Certainly life changing no doubt but hats off to you for pushing on if that is the case...

Well it is exciting when the trades are happening sometimes as we trade shorter term intraday in many of our funds. But mostly we wait, and wait, and wait. That is why I'm here and posting so much 18 hours a day. So mostly it is pretty boring. I mess with our assistant and throw sh*t at programmers, watch tv, movies, play pool, whatever and everything is set up with audio alerts so I kind of put the game face on and spring into action. I never get nervous really anymore as everything is so mechanized in my brain. Just repeating behaviors like a machine (and with machines more and more). But when new staff or otherwise people think about the numbers we push around and they get pretty nervy. You just have to not think and just do your thing I guess. Keep in mind, even in the smalllest scalp type order we trade in one particular account, we are controlling maybe 50M or so worth of the S&P and risking somwhere on the order of up to $150,000 for a single trade which could be over in 6 seconds if it gets taken out at the full stop. Of course if we win we are going to make more than that on the same trade obviously and we try to do the latter a little more than the former if you know what I mean. LOL. So yes, I guess when you think of the numbers and the heat is on it is probably pretty far from boring.

...The "different/fun/interesting/conversation piece" timepiece category, with historical significance of course. Pugwash got me thinking about IWC's contribution to this broad idea with the FA Jones - a throwback to the crossover era when wristwatches were merely pocketwatches with straps on them. Similarly, Vacheron Constantin had such a piece in 1921 which was a cushion shaped case. Not a pocket watch design per se, but rather a driving watch with an off balance layout designed to be viewed when driving so that the dial is visible perfectly with a hand on the wheel without twisting the wrist. This is a true homage to the "Roadster" era of the early 1920's. Because of the case shape and dial placement, the crown is in an interesting spot to provide balance for the entire watch. This brand new recreation is a nod to the original as well as that wonderful feel and vibe of the art deco era. Like the FA Jones, a truly American handwind in design and history. So may I present Vacheron's new vintage recreation - The Historiques American 1921. So simple and elegant and above all, fun. The watch is designed as a modern and larger wearing (due to the shape of the case) 40MM. Certainly large enough, but not too big as I personally feel the "all dial" 43MM Jones is. The first release of the 1921 is in Rose Gold as are all the new VC releases at SIHH this year. However, a white gold and special 950 platinum edition will follow in 6 months or so according to VC reps. I must say if I were wanting a sort of a "different" historic watch like the FA Jones is in essentially being a pocketwatch with a strap on it, I would love to have this in my collection to fill the "conversation piece" category. Not that the Jones Caliber is any slouch, but the new VC Caliber 4400 handwind is getting great reviews. Beautiful too, and refreshing in that it isn' the typical 3 bridge plus the blance c*ck design on every high end Swiss Caliber. Sort of like a cross between a Swiss look and an almost Glashutte region 3/4 plate look but with two pieces instead of one. And get this on the 4400 - just 2.8MM thick (!), a 65 hour reserve (wow! - from a dress Caliber?!), one large mainspring barrel, and of course another Hallmark of Geneva completely in-house caliber...

Not many can afford a Jones, Pug. That is a pricey piece at $31,500 retail. Gotta love the rep at $168 though! Besides, for a fine, larger movement strapped classic dress watch there are so many other choices for far less money. If you can stand an automatic a standard 7-days Porto gets the job done in WG for ten grand less, or in steel for twenty grand less at retail. Not that it quite captures the feel though - although those are similar shape and feel. Still, the FA Jones in platinum is a classic for sure.

I think that is another thread Hike...

Hey, another MINI guy. I have an S too, but I kind of switched it around from you and got it after the Porsche - although I kept the Porsche too in my case. Did you love your MINI? I guess not enough cause you sold it, but I can't get enough of mine. I have been considering doing a Speedster rep though. They look like a lot of fun. I think I may build one when I tire of the MINI if I ever do. I have had the MINI a year now, although only 3500 miles on it or so. Just a runabout for store runs as I never leave the office really, but I bet the Speedster rep would fill that role nicely as well. I'll be PMing you...

Yeah, by any measure I'm killing it lately. Blessed really. I am going to marry the girl of my dreams, have a great family, beautiful homes, great friends, my business has grown leaps and bounds, etc.. I just have to pinch myself sometimes. Notice I didn't mention work or money at the top of reasons why I'm successful. That will come automatically really if the rest is in line I believe. But here is the key: I'm GRATEFUL and I believe in the power of that as part of being successful. And it all means more to me because I appreciate it. I came from nothing - poor white trash. I busted my as*s to get educated and smarter and most of all never let up on the work ethic. I give it my all everyday - pedal to the metal. My advice to you at such a young age is be nice on the way up because you will come down at some point. Everyone does. From timeto time life will kick the everloving sh*t out of you and you will need all the allies you can get when that happens. Respect your elders and their experience and don't be a young little pr*ck. Trust me, there are far too many of them these days. Be confident, but not cocky. And as for what you choose to do for a career - pick something you are passionate about and it will make it all the much easier to be great at it. Other than that, what it is doesn't really matter. Oh yeah, me, I'm a trader. I own a private equity hedge fund which primarly trades specialzed derivative based return enhancement strategies for institutional clients (investment banks and larger hedge funds). I also have a software company that develops automated trading systems, risk management systems, and productivity tools again for larger funds, institutions, and money managers. And no, we are not down from these markets as that question always seems to come these days. Times are great. We trade many volatility keyed strategies and as such had a record year in 2008 for many of our asset classes for absolute returns. Great times for traders, the worst for investors...

I'm spoiled as many of you know. It so happens that one of my oldest and dearest friends - maybe even my best friend actually, has one of the largest collections in my state (and in the country for that matter). Two of his pieces come to mind. The Breguet Double Tourbillion (44MM / 20 pieces per year limited / $337,000 USD). The world's first and only rotating dial double tourbillion. It has two tourbillons which work independently of each other and turn around the dial every 12 hours. Breguet has patented this mechanism of two tourbillon movements coupled with 2 differentials: one commands the top plate which rotates and another which commands the arming of the mainspring. The movement has 570 parts... and the Ulysse Nardin Ghengis Khan (42MM / 30 pieces a year limited / $490,000 USD). It is actually more classy and amazing than the double in a really artsy way. It just seems like a total one off - handmade. Just makes your heart warm in a way that is touch to describe. And the sound! Oh that beautiful sound. Best repeater I have ever heard! It was introduced in 2002 beyond all considerations of practicability, a piece of art more than a mere timepiece. The world's first wristwatch featuring a Westminster chime with minute repeater, automatons and tourbillon escapement. A dial made of star dotted onyx has four figures, hand carved in gold. The figures show Mongolian warriors swinging weapons. Each time the Westminster chimes or the repeater is engaged, the figures are fighting with swords or trying to catch a small ring with a spear while riding a horse. The tourbillon is actually integrated into the aventurine dial. The dial has opaque and translucent crystals that use fire in molten glass, aventurine scintillates, and subtyl flecked with all possible shades of red, yellow and grey. In a phrase, this piece is just sickeningly nice... Both would literally level you to the ground by even touching them. They sure have me. I routinely ask him if I can "Pet the sexy tourby's" when I go to his house. He gets annoyed, but I bring my loupe and stare at them for as long as I can get away with. The saddest part is he could care less to look at them with a loupe. They sit in the custom cabinet along with the other nearly 200 pieces in the collection now mostly. He does actually wear the double sometimes though as he likes the innovative look of it, but doesn't really get blown out by why it is so cool other than how it looks...

Right, nine. Sorry, I meant diamonds are ten and Aluminum Oxide is 9. And of course, the lab grown stuff is very cheap. The main point really was to illustrate the differences in names realtive to color although the same substance. As I said, values are only different between them based on rarity in nature. In the lab they are all equal, which is they cost next to nothing to produce. That said, I would like to see more manufactories experiment with it as a bridge and plate material for skeletonized type movements. It makes perfect sense as it is very hard and inherently stable. It would be cool to see additional experiments with color and matching straps in less ornate watches. You could do it with almost anything. Imagine a 2892 or even 6497/8 which was bridgeless and screwed/jeweled to Corundum in layers just as the Royal Blue is. Experiments with very slight color of Ruby or Emerald on just a balance c*ck for example visible from the front due to transparancy - coupled with white subdials with a touch of red or green font color or indices. The possibilities are endless for non-complicated watches. The cool thing is the labor is much less intensive because you don't have to "skeletonize" anything. It is built in with the transparency. Any movement can look amazing and add color at the same time...

I love the self loathing videos which plug his mug shots and various 4-track demos for no good reason at all. Gotta love TTK. Jetmid got nothing on him...

Agreed. I was just trying to post a different alternative. I would probably grab an Omega for a first gen in that price range before Sinn or anything else. And the 757 is what you would want and so already at $2100 as I said and you can be into something else there anyway. Heck at $2200 or so you can have a Steelfish new even. So yes, listen to the boys and go w/ Omega.

German made with a nod to the Glashutte tradition and a strong aviation presence simultaneously. If you can handle $2100, a Sinn 757 Chrono is awesome. 43MM & great double AR & lume. 7750 based. I had the tegimented UTC version one for quite some time. Great watches. Or, for a real cheap $1500 or so you can have a 657 on bracelet which is great too. 40MM and again double AR and great lume. Nice clean dial and you can't beat the price. 2824 based.

Tampaxmax